Group 1: XAU/USD Analysis - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices experienced fluctuations, breaking through 3783.6 before retreating, with a daily range of 493 points and a small bullish close [3] - Current early morning prices have breached the 3791 to 3798.6 range, approaching the 3800 mark, supported by geopolitical risks, Federal Reserve policy shifts, and de-dollarization trends [3] - Key resistance levels are identified at 3810/3815, with support at 3758/3735, suggesting a strategy of selling at 3810/3815 and buying on dips to 3760 [4] Group 2: EUR/USD Analysis - The analysis notes a loss on a short position due to the price reaching 1.1707, with a daily close showing a small bullish trend influenced by rising French debt and EU trade proposals [6] - Resistance levels are set at 1.180/1.184, while support is at 1.161/1.166, with a recommendation to buy at 1.169/1.170 [8] Group 3: GBP/USD Analysis - The GBP/USD analysis highlights a loss on a short position as the price reached 1.3412, with attention on inflation impacts and US-UK tariff negotiations [10] - Resistance levels are identified at 1.350/1.355 and support at 1.332/1.337, with a buy recommendation at 1.337/1.338 [12] Group 4: GBP/JPY Analysis - The GBP/JPY market saw upward movement with a high of 200.5 before retreating, maintaining an upward trend above key support levels [14] - Resistance is noted at 201.3/200.7, with support at 199.1/198.6, and a buy recommendation on dips to 199.8-199.9 [15] Group 5: Fundamental Reminders - Key economic indicators to watch include UK mortgage approvals, Eurozone economic sentiment, US existing home sales, and comments from Federal Reserve officials [17]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 日期 美债10年期收益率 日期 美债2年期收益率 NYMEX原油 美元指数 VIX 标普500 美元/人民币中间价 2025/9/16 2025/9/15 7. 10 97.36 3.54 4. 05 15. 69 6615. 28 63. 28 利率/汇 室/版市 7.11 2025/9/15 2025/9/12 97.62 3.56 4. 06 14. 76 6584. 29 62. 60 涨跌幅 涨跌幅 -0. 04% -0. 27% -0. 56% -0. 25% 6. 30% 0. 47% 1. 09% 1,050 16,000 250 | 110.00 4,200 120 40 200 30 110 1,000 3,700 JEO 100.00 15,000 20 100 100 10 3,200 950 90 90.00 14,000 2,700 900 80.00 图表分析 2,200 13,000 850 60 70.00 1,700 50 12,000 800 60.00 1,200 2025-09 2024-09 2023-05 2024-0 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the weakening of safe - haven sentiment, the wave of U.S. economic data, and the reduction of automobile tariffs will limit the rise of precious metal prices. After a recent sharp rise, precious metals are overbought, and profit - taking may lead to price adjustments. However, weak U.S. employment data strengthens the Fed's September rate - cut expectation, so precious metal prices are still supported. Precious metals are expected to slow down and enter a high - level oscillation phase, and the strategy of buying on dips is recommended [5]. - In the long - term, due to the Fed's rate - cut expectation, continuous global geopolitical uncertainty, intensified great - power competition, and the wave of de - dollarization with continued gold purchases by global central banks, the long - term center of gravity of gold is likely to continue to rise [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On September 4, 2025, London gold spot was at $3536.55/ounce, London silver spot at $40.85/ounce, COMEX gold at $3596.80/ounce, and COMEX silver at $41.45/ounce. Compared with September 3, the price of London gold spot and London silver spot rose 0.1%, COMEX gold fell 0.1%, and COMEX silver fell 0.4%. Domestic gold and silver futures and spot prices also showed certain fluctuations [5]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: On September 4, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 4.08 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 4 yuan/kg, and there were also corresponding changes in other spreads and ratios compared with September 3 [5]. Position Data - **COMEX Gold and Silver Positions**: As of August 26, 2025 (weekly data), COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 275,767 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 61,456 contracts, and the net long position was 214,311 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 68,227 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 21,761 contracts, and the net long position was 46,466 contracts [5]. - **ETF Positions**: On September 3, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR position was 984.26 tons, a decrease of 0.64% compared with September 2. The silver ETF - SLV position was 15,281.39775 tons, a decrease of 0.55% [5]. Inventory Data - **SHFE and COMEX Inventories**: On September 4, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 43,254 kg, an increase of 7.46% compared with September 3. SHFE silver inventory was 1,259,949 kg, an increase of 2.68%. COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged at 38,957,798 troy ounces on September 3 compared with September 2, and COMEX silver inventory decreased 0.42% to 516,067,724 troy ounces [5]. Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: On September 4, 2025, the U.S. dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.11, with a - 0.08% change compared with September 3. The U.S. dollar index was 98.15, a - 0.17% change compared with September 2. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield was 3.61%, a - 1.37% change, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.22%, a - 1.40% change [5]. - **Stock Market and Crude Oil**: The VIX index was 16.35, a - 4.78% change. The S&P 500 index was 6448.26, a 0.51% change. NYMEX crude oil was at $63.77, a - 2.82% change [5]. Market News and Analysis - **Economic News**: The Fed released the Beige Book, showing that consumer spending was flat or declining. Japan and the U.S. were in the final stage of negotiating to reduce Japanese automobile import tariffs, with the tariff rate expected to drop from 27.5% to 15% at the end of the month. U.S. employment data in August was weak, and the trade deficit in July was - $8.3 billion [5]. - **Market Performance**: On September 4, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.32% to 812.98 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures fell 0.14% to 9773 yuan/kg [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - In the short - term, precious metal prices are expected to continue to run on the high side. With the US July PC data in line with expectations, indicating that the impact of tariffs on inflation is controllable, and the decline of the August Michigan consumer confidence index, the expectation of the Fed's September interest rate cut is further strengthened. Coupled with geopolitical tensions and the ruling that most of the US government's global tariff policies are illegal, the precious metal prices have strongly rebounded. Silver has performed much stronger than gold, and multi - orders can continue to be held or go long on dips [5]. - In the medium - to - long - term, due to the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensifying great - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, the central banks' gold purchases continue, and the medium - to - long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to move up [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Tracking - On September 1, 2025, compared with August 29, 2025, London gold spot rose 2.0% to $3478.93 per ounce, London silver spot rose 4.4% to $40.52 per ounce, COMEX gold rose 2.2% to $3546.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver rose 4.8% to $41.37 per ounce. In the domestic market, AU2510 rose 2.0% to 800.56 yuan per gram, and AG2510 rose 4.1% to 9775 yuan per kilogram [5]. - Regarding price differences, the spread between domestic and foreign gold (TD - London) was - 3.91 yuan per gram on September 1, 2025, with a 27.4% increase; the spread between domestic and foreign silver (TD - London) was - 28 yuan per kilogram, with a - 3.4% decrease [5]. Position Data - As of August 29, 2025, compared with August 28, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 977.68 tons, up 1.01%; the silver ETF - SLV was 15309.99769 tons, down 0.15%. For COMEX gold non - commercial positions, the long positions increased 0.18%, the short positions decreased 1.96%, and the net long positions increased 0.81%. For COMEX silver non - commercial positions, the long positions increased 0.97%, the short positions decreased 0.18%, and the net long positions increased [5]. Inventory Data - From August 28 to August 29, 2025, the COMEX gold inventory increased 0.42% to 38925853 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory increased 0.20% to 518232360 troy ounces. Data for SHFE gold and silver inventories were not available [5]. Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - On September 1, 2025, compared with August 29, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate rose 0.06% to 7.11. The US dollar index fell 0.02% to 97.85, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.83% to 3.59%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 0.24% to 4.23%, the VIX rose 6.44% to 15.36, the S&P 500 fell 0.64% to 6460.26, and NYMEX crude oil fell 0.48% to $64.01 [5]. Economic Data and Events - The US July core PCE price index annual rate was 2.9%, the highest since February, in line with expectations; the July PCE price index annual rate was 2.6%, in line with expectations; the July core PCE price index monthly rate was 0.3%, in line with expectations; the July PCE price index monthly rate was 0.2%, in line with expectations; the July personal spending monthly rate was 0.5%, the highest since September, in line with expectations; the July personal income monthly rate was 0.4%, in line with expectations [5]. - On August 29, the US Court of Appeals ruled that most of the US government's global tariff policies were illegal, and these tariff - increasing measures could be maintained until October 14 for the US government to appeal to the Supreme Court. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's international trade negotiation representative and deputy minister visited the US and held talks with relevant US government officials and business representatives [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, due to factors such as the core PCE rebound in the US in July (highest since February but in line with expectations), the decline of the Michigan consumer confidence index, the weakening of the US dollar, the escalation of the geopolitical situation between Israel and the Houthi armed forces, and the ruling of the US appellate court on most global tariff policies, the price of precious metals is expected to continue to be strong. Short - term strategies suggest holding long positions or buying on dips [3]. - In the long - term, with the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, the central banks' gold purchases are expected to continue, and the long - term center of gold prices is likely to rise [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On August 29, 2025, London gold spot was at $3411.45 per ounce (up 0.5% from the previous day), London silver spot was at $38.82 per ounce (down 0.1%), COMEX gold was at $3470.00 per ounce (up 0.5%), COMEX silver was at $39.49 per ounce (unchanged), AU2510 was at 785.12 yuan per gram (up 0.2%), AG2510 was at 9386 yuan per kilogram (up 0.1%), AU (T + D) was at 782.05 yuan per gram (up 0.2%), and AG (T + D) was at 9357 yuan per kilogram (up 0.1%) [3]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: On August 29, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 3.07 yuan per gram (up 2.3% from the previous day), the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 29 yuan per kilogram (down 9.4%), the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) was 2.99 yuan per gram (down 33.5%), the silver internal - external price spread (TD - London) was - 584 yuan per kilogram (down 3.2%), the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 83.65 (up 0.1%), the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 87.88 (up 0.6%), AU2512 - 2510 was 2.30 yuan per gram (down 1.7%), and AG2512 - 2510 was 24 yuan per kilogram (up 20.0%) [3]. b. Position Data - As of August 29, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was at 977.68 tons (up 1.01% from the previous day), the silver ETF - SLV was at 15309.99769 tons (down 0.15%), the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold were 275767 contracts (up 0.18%), the non - commercial short positions were 61456 contracts (down 1.96%), the non - commercial net long positions were 214311 contracts (up 0.81%), the non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver were 68227 contracts (up 0.18%), the non - commercial short positions were 21761 contracts (up 0.97%), and the non - commercial net long positions were 46466 contracts (down 0.18%) [3]. c. Inventory Data - On August 29, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 39624 kilograms (up 0.30% from the previous day), the SHFE silver inventory was 1195996 kilograms (up 1.48%), the COMEX gold inventory was 38925853 troy ounces (up 0.42%), and the COMEX silver inventory was 518232360 troy ounces (up 0.20%) [3]. d. Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - On August 29, 2025, the USD/CNY central parity rate was 7.10 (down 0.05% from the previous day), the US dollar index was 97.85 (down 0.02%), the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.59% (down 0.83%), the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.23% (up 0.24%), the VIX was 15.36 (up 6.44%), the S&P 500 was 6460.26 (down 0.64%), and NYMEX crude oil was $64.01 per barrel (down 0.48%) [3]. e. Market News and Analysis - **US Economic Data**: The US core PCE price index annual rate in July was 2.9% (highest since February, in line with expectations), the PCE price index annual rate was 2.6% (in line with expectations), the core PCE price index monthly rate was 0.3% (in line with expectations), the PCE price index monthly rate was 0.2% (in line with expectations), and personal spending growth rate was 0.5% (highest since September) [3]. - **Policy and Geopolitical News**: The US appellate court ruled that most of the global tariff policies implemented by President Trump were illegal. The Houthi armed forces in Yemen are preparing to confront Israel after the death of several high - level officials in an Israeli air strike [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term: Trump's Fed appointment event and potential September rate cuts, along with a weakening dollar, support precious metal prices. However, the US economic data shows some resilience, like positive Q2 GDP and a decrease in weekly jobless claims. Today's US July PCE data may cause short - term fluctuations. Overall, short - term precious metal prices are still supported. Gold is recommended to hold long positions or increase long positions on pullbacks. Silver is expected to remain strong due to gold's rise and tariff factors, but its medium - term performance may be based on fundamentals, and caution is needed regarding its upside and duration [5] - Medium - to long - term: With expectations of Fed rate cuts, ongoing global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power competition, and the de - dollarization trend, central bank gold purchases are likely to continue, and the medium - to long - term price center of gold will probably rise [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking of Internal and External Gold and Silver - On August 28, 2025, compared with August 27, 2025, London gold spot rose 0.5% to $3395.28/ounce, London silver spot rose 1.1% to $38.84/ounce, COMEX gold rose 0.7% to $3451.20/ounce, COMEX silver rose 2.7% to $39.50/ounce, AU2510 rose 0.3% to 783.22 yuan/gram, AG2510 rose 0.8% to 9377 yuan/kg, AU (T + D) rose 0.3% to 780.22 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) rose 0.8% to 9345 yuan/kg [5] 3.2 Tracking of Price Spreads/Ratios - From August 27 to August 28, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread decreased by 4.5% to - 3 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread decreased by 8.6% to - 32 yuan/kg, the gold internal - external (TD - London) price spread decreased by 25.1% to 4.49 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external (TD - London) price spread increased by 3.6% to - 603 yuan/kg, the SHFE gold - silver main contract ratio decreased by 0.5% to 83.53, the COMEX gold - silver main contract ratio decreased by 1.9% to 87.38, the AU2512 - 2510 spread increased by 6.4% to 2.34 yuan/gram, and the AG2512 - 2510 spread decreased by 13.0% to 20 yuan/kg [5] 3.3 Position Data - As of August 27, 2025, compared with August 26, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR increased by 0.27% to 962.5 tons, the silver ETF - SLV remained unchanged at 15274.6947 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions decreased by 4.46% to 275277 contracts, non - commercial short positions increased by 6.92% to 62687 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions decreased by 7.36% to 212590 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions increased by 2.79% to 68102 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 1.96% to 21553 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions increased by 5.15% to 46549 contracts [5] 3.4 Inventory Data - On August 28, 2025, compared with August 27, 2025, SHFE gold inventory increased by 5.34% to 39504 kg, SHFE silver inventory increased by 1.12% to 1178523 kg, COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged at 38578730 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.54% to 511505129 troy ounces [5] 3.5 Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - On August 28, 2025, compared with August 27, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate decreased by 0.06% to 7.11, the US dollar index decreased by 0.05% to 98.19, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.55% to 3.59%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.47% to 4.24%, the VIX increased by 1.57% to 14.85, the S&P 500 increased by 0.24% to 6481.40, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 0.87% to 63.86 [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On August 27, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.12% to 781.16 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.52% to 9,305 yuan/kg [4] - The event of Trump dismissing Fed Governor Cook has further fermented. Political pressure has strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, thus supporting precious metal prices. On the other hand, the official implementation of a 50% tariff on India by the US and Trump's tariff remarks have slightly increased market risk aversion. However, Trump's statement that the US has completed trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and South Korea, along with strong US core durable goods order data in July, highlighting US economic resilience and providing support for the US dollar index, have limited the upside space for gold prices. In the short term, precious metal prices are still supported. For gold, it is recommended to hold long positions or go long on pullbacks. For silver, it is expected to follow gold in the short term, but with signs of cooling in the stock market and commodities, short - term fluctuations need attention, and the upside height and duration in the medium term should be treated with caution [4] - In the medium - to - long term, due to expectations of Fed rate cuts, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified large - scale games, and the wave of de - dollarization, along with continued gold purchases by global central banks, the medium - to - long - term center of gravity of gold is likely to continue to move up [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On August 27, 2025, London gold spot was at $3,376.92/ounce, London silver spot was at $38.43/ounce, COMEX gold was at $3,426.60/ounce, and COMEX silver was at $38.47/ounce. Compared with August 26, the price of London gold remained unchanged, London silver fell 0.7%, COMEX gold rose 0.1%, and COMEX silver fell 0.6%. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also showed corresponding changes, with AU2510 remaining unchanged, AG2510 falling 0.5%, AU (T + D) remaining unchanged, and AG (T + D) falling 0.6% [3] - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: On August 27, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 3.14 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 35 yuan/kg, the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) was 6.00 yuan/gram, and the silver internal - external price spread (TD - London) was - 582 yuan/kg. Compared with August 26, the price spreads showed different degrees of change, with the gold TD - SHFE active price spread falling 7.6%, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread rising 12.9%, the gold internal - external price spread rising 21.4%, and the silver internal - external price spread falling 4.7%. The SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 83.95, and the COMEX gold - silver main ratio was 89.08, both showing slight increases [3] Position Data - **ETF Holdings**: As of August 26, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR held 959.92 tons, up 0.15% from August 25. The silver ETF - SLV held 15,274.6947 tons, down 0.09% [3] - **Non - commercial Positions in COMEX**: As of August 19, 2025 (weekly data), the non - commercial long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 4.46%, the non - commercial short positions increased by 6.92%, and the net long positions decreased by 7.36%. For COMEX silver, the non - commercial long positions increased by 2.79%, the non - commercial short positions decreased by 1.96%, and the net long positions increased by 5.15% [3] Inventory Data - On August 27, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 37,503 kg, unchanged from August 26. The SHFE silver inventory was 1,165,498 kg, up 3.39% from August 26. The COMEX gold inventory on August 26 was 38,578,730 troy ounces, up 0.04% from August 25, and the COMEX silver inventory on August 26 was 508,778,300 troy ounces, unchanged from August 25 [3] Related Market Data - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: From August 25 to August 27, 2025, the US dollar index fell 0.11%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 3.22%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.19%, the VIX fell 0.47%, the NYMEX crude oil price rose 0.41%, and the S&P 500 fell 2.21% [4] Market News and Analysis - Trump announced the dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, who refused to resign and will sue. The Fed stated that only "just cause" can remove a governor and will abide by court decisions. The Trump administration is considering exerting greater influence on the 12 regional reserve banks of the Fed [4] - In July, the preliminary monthly change in US durable goods orders was - 2.8%, a second consecutive month of negative growth. However, the preliminary monthly change in core durable goods orders excluding aircraft and non - defense capital goods increased by 1.1%, exceeding expectations and indicating US economic resilience [4] - Trump said that the US has completed trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and South Korea, and a 50% tariff on India officially took effect on August 27 [4]

Group 1 - The gold market is experiencing unprecedented volatility this year, characterized by significant price fluctuations and a shift from "black swan" events to daily occurrences of $100 price swings [1] - Factors contributing to this volatility include tariff disputes, geopolitical tensions, de-dollarization trends, fluctuating Federal Reserve policies, and global recession expectations [1] - Recent trading patterns indicate a bearish sentiment, with gold prices fluctuating around 3222, and key resistance and support levels identified at 3250 and 3200 respectively [3] Group 2 - The silver market opened with slight gains, supported by key technical levels, while a weakening dollar and renewed trade tensions have increased safe-haven demand [6] - Silver prices are currently hovering around 32.33, with potential upward movement if they break through the resistance at 32.65, targeting 33.00 [6] - Short-term trading strategies for silver suggest focusing on selling on rebounds and buying on dips, with critical resistance and support levels identified at 32.65-32.75 and 32.20-32.10 respectively [6]