早上好！先来看看美联储最新消息。 明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡利最新表示，美国经济增速正在放缓，可能使得短期内降息成为合 适的政策选择。 当地时间周三（8月6日），卡什卡利接受采访时说道："经济增速正在放缓。短期内，开始调整联邦基 金利率可能是合适的。" 他补充道，关税仍是一个重大的不确定性，目前尚不清楚它们将对通胀产生何种影响，"我们还能等多 久才能看清关税的效应？这正是我现在所忧虑的"。 据央视报道，当地时间8月6日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国将对芯片和半导体征收约100%的关税。 特朗普称，如果在美国制造，将不收取任何费用。 另据央视新闻援引《纽约时报》报道，当地时间8月6日，两位知情人士透露，美国总统特朗普告知欧洲 领导人，他计划最早于下周与俄罗斯总统普京进行面对面会晤，随后还计划与普京和乌克兰总统泽连斯 基举行三方会谈。 卡什卡利称，短期内，降息这一选项可能比干等关税明朗化要更好，即使之后可能要"朝反方向调整"， 即加息。 他表示自己仍预计年底前将降息两次，但补充说，如果有迹象表明关税引发的通胀效应可能更持久，那 么决策者可能会减少降息次数。 当天，旧金山联储主席戴利表示，考虑到劳动力市场放缓以及 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European shipping index futures have shown a significant rebound, with the main contract rising by 7.8% to 1904.9 points, contrasting with previous downward trends, indicating ongoing market speculation about the timing of peak freight rates in July and August and subsequent declines [2] Group 1: Market Trends - The European shipping market typically experiences a peak season in July and August due to strong demand from exporters preparing for Christmas, which usually drives freight rates up [3] - Despite the expected peak season, the European shipping index's August contract has been in a downward trend since June, influenced by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics [3] - Analysts suggest that the recent decline in the August contract may be overly pessimistic, as European export demand remains resilient and supply is stable [3] Group 2: Freight Rate Adjustments - Major shipping companies have begun to lower their freight rates for July, with specific reductions noted from companies like CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd, indicating a potential peak in current rates [4] - The market is currently assessing the top position of freight rates, with expectations that clearer signals from the spot market will guide future price movements [4] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The overall freight rate center in the shipping market is expected to decline in the second half of the year due to increased supply and the delivery of new vessels [5][6] - The shipping market is projected to see a 6% growth in capacity in the latter half of 2023, which may exacerbate supply-demand imbalances and put downward pressure on rates [6] - The anticipated delivery of new vessels, estimated at 1.7 million TEU in the second half of the year, is expected to further intensify supply pressures [6] Group 4: Uncertainties - Potential uncertainties remain, including the expiration of tariff suspensions and geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which could impact shipping volumes and freight rates [7]

Core Insights - The European shipping index futures have the highest trading volume globally among shipping index derivatives, with a total transaction amount of RMB 4.7 trillion as of April 30, 2025, and an average daily transaction amount of RMB 11.5 billion [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The European shipping index futures have experienced significant price volatility due to the impact of the Red Sea shipping crisis, but the price difference between the futures and spot contracts has been controlled within 1% for the seven contracts that have been delivered [2]. - The index futures have demonstrated their price discovery and hedging functions, becoming essential tools for foreign trade logistics companies to manage price fluctuations and for shipping companies to reference for forward pricing [2]. Group 2: Industry Context - The shipping industry plays a crucial role in international trade, ensuring the smooth operation of goods trade and international logistics supply chains, which highlights the urgent need for risk management tools like shipping index futures to help companies navigate market uncertainties [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has enhanced China's pricing capabilities in the global commodity and service markets through product innovation, service optimization, and risk management initiatives, contributing to the high-quality development of the real economy [1].