Core Viewpoint - The recent non-farm payroll data has significantly impacted the gold market, leading to a sharp increase in gold prices by over $50, indicating a strong response from bullish investors amid a backdrop of disappointing employment figures [2][3]. Economic Data Summary - The U.S. July U6 unemployment rate was reported at 7.70%, with no expectations provided [3]. - Average hourly wage growth year-over-year was 3.70%, slightly below the expected 3.80% [3]. - Average weekly hours remained stable at 34.2, matching expectations [3]. - Monthly average hourly wage growth was reported at 0.20%, below the expected 0.30% [3]. - The seasonally adjusted government employment population was 7.3 million, with no expectations provided [3]. - Private non-farm employment increased by 7.4 million, significantly below the expected 10 million [3]. - The manufacturing employment population decreased by 0.7 million, worse than the expected decrease of 0.3 million [3]. - The seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population was reported at 14.7 million, with expectations of 11 million [3]. - The employment participation rate remained unchanged at 62.30% [3]. - The unemployment rate was reported at 4.10%, better than the expected 4.20% [3]. Market Reaction - Following the release of the non-farm payroll data, gold prices surged, reaching a high of $3354-55, marking an increase of $72 from the day's low [2][3]. - The disappointing employment figures have increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, further supporting gold prices [2][3]. - Despite the bullish movement, there are indications that the medium-term outlook for gold remains bearish, with key resistance levels identified around $3356 and $3361 [6].

Macroeconomic Impact - The Manhattan International Trade Court ruled that Trump's comprehensive tariffs on trade surplus countries were "overreaching" and postponed their implementation, despite the White House's intention to appeal and utilize other legal tools, resulting in a threefold economic impact [1] - U.S. companies have incurred losses exceeding $34 billion due to tariffs, leading to a significant drop in CEO confidence index [1] - The global response from trade partners has varied, with Canada affirming the illegality of the tariffs, while the UK and EU remain cautious, and Japan and India continue negotiations with the U.S. [1] - The Asian stock market initially rose but then returned to previous levels, with the dollar index falling by 0.5% and gold becoming the preferred safe-haven asset [1] - The U.S. job market is under pressure, with initial jobless claims exceeding expectations, and corporate profits plummeting, leading to an economic state described as "stagflation" [1] - The market is betting on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to support growth, which, along with Trump's trade policies, is influencing the gold market [1] Dollar Index Performance - On Thursday, the dollar index experienced a significant decline, reaching a high of 100.521 and a low of 99.189, ultimately closing at 99.331 [2] - The market showed volatility, with prices testing resistance levels but failing to maintain upward momentum, leading to a bearish closing [2] - The weekly resistance level is noted at 101.70, indicating a potential bearish trend in the medium term [2] Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices showed an overall upward trend on Thursday, with a high of 3330 and a low of 3245, closing at 3317 [4] - The price initially declined but rebounded after testing a 50% retracement level, indicating potential strength if it breaks above the early high [4] - Key support levels for gold are identified at 3278 and 3295, which will determine short-term strength [5][7] Euro/USD Performance - The Euro/USD pair showed an upward trend on Thursday, with a low of 1.1210 and a high of 1.1384, closing at 1.1365 [7] - The market experienced a brief decline before recovering, indicating potential for continued upward movement if it maintains above key support levels [8] - Long-term bullish sentiment is supported by a monthly support level at 1.0800, with short-term focus on the 1.1310-20 support range [8][10]