Core Viewpoint - The recent non-farm payroll data has significantly impacted the gold market, leading to a sharp increase in gold prices by over $50, indicating a strong response from bullish investors amid a backdrop of disappointing employment figures [2][3]. Economic Data Summary - The U.S. July U6 unemployment rate was reported at 7.70%, with no expectations provided [3]. - Average hourly wage growth year-over-year was 3.70%, slightly below the expected 3.80% [3]. - Average weekly hours remained stable at 34.2, matching expectations [3]. - Monthly average hourly wage growth was reported at 0.20%, below the expected 0.30% [3]. - The seasonally adjusted government employment population was 7.3 million, with no expectations provided [3]. - Private non-farm employment increased by 7.4 million, significantly below the expected 10 million [3]. - The manufacturing employment population decreased by 0.7 million, worse than the expected decrease of 0.3 million [3]. - The seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population was reported at 14.7 million, with expectations of 11 million [3]. - The employment participation rate remained unchanged at 62.30% [3]. - The unemployment rate was reported at 4.10%, better than the expected 4.20% [3]. Market Reaction - Following the release of the non-farm payroll data, gold prices surged, reaching a high of $3354-55, marking an increase of $72 from the day's low [2][3]. - The disappointing employment figures have increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, further supporting gold prices [2][3]. - Despite the bullish movement, there are indications that the medium-term outlook for gold remains bearish, with key resistance levels identified around $3356 and $3361 [6].

宏观面 曼哈顿国际贸易法院裁定特朗普对贸易顺差国全面加征关税 "越权" 并暂缓生效，尽管白宫上诉且欲启用其他法律工具，但已对经济造成三重冲击。企业方 面，美企因关税损失超 340 亿美元，CEO 信心指数暴跌；全球贸易伙伴反应不一，加拿大称裁决印证关税非法，欧英观望，日印仍推进对美谈判；金融市 场中，亚洲股市短暂上扬后回归，美元指数跌 0.5%，黄金成避险首选。美国经济委员会主任哈西特认为裁决会被推翻，不影响贸易谈判，而纳瓦罗 "另寻 征税途径" 的表态遭警告或加剧政策混乱。当前，美国就业市场承压，初请失业金人数超预期，企业利润大跌，经济陷入 "滞胀"。市场押注美联储降息保增 长，这与特朗普贸易政策共同影响黄金市场，关税争端上诉结果、非农数据等将决定金价走势，周五的 PCE 物价指数也备受市场关注 。 美元指数 在美元指数的表现上，周四美元指数呈现出大跌态势。当日美元指数价格最高攀升至100.521的位置，最低则下探至99.189，最终以 99.331的价格收盘。回顾 周四市场表现，在早盘期间价格短线向上测试日线级别阻力位置，并且直接刺破，但是在上破后价格没有延续，反而是再度承压并持续下跌，价格最终收盘 在低 ...