每经AI快讯，8月27日，国内期货夜盘开盘多数下跌，沪银跌0.41%，沪铜跌0.67%，铁矿跌0.13%，焦 煤跌0.82%，玻璃跌0.08%，原油跌0.8%，纯碱跌0.46%。 ...

每经AI快讯，8月27日，上期所原油期货主力合约夜盘收跌2.19%，报486.80元/桶。沪金夜盘收涨 0.21%，沪银收跌0.30%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

景川也表示，降息周期或不会支撑大宗商品价格持续走强。在利率与商品价格同步下行的环境中，实体 企业利润或因成本下降而阶段性回升，企业盈利改善将传导至员工收入增长，进而刺激消费与投资回 暖。唯有实体企业利润实质性提升，才能为未来经济增长注入持续动力。 编者按 近期，多种化工品、工业制品、原料价格掀起上涨浪潮，引发市场的广泛关注。价格跳动的曲线背后， 藏着市场最关切的三重追问：此轮涨价由何驱动？这波涨势能持续多久？产业链上下游企业的业绩能否 借此迎来修复契机，又将如何重塑行业竞争格局？ 春江水暖"价"先知。涨价，是经济脉络复苏中最灵敏的脉动信号。上海证券报微信公众号推出《市场 探"涨"》系列报道，意在凸显这一系列价格变化背后的市场活力与商业逻辑变迁。透过"涨"声，倾听复 苏脚步；在潮起潮落之间，探见未来可期。 当地时间8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔发声，称美联储对降息持开放态度，市场解读为"放鸽"，受访人 士表示，这一表态对美元计价的国际大宗商品市场形成正面影响，大宗商品有望迎来价值重估。 8月25日期货市场方面，沪铜主力合约价格上涨，收盘价为79690元/吨，吨价逼近8万元关口；沪金、沪 银主力合约价格均录得上涨。 ...

文字早评 2025/08/26 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 消息面： 1、国家发改委主任郑栅洁主持召开座谈会，听取"十五五"时期扩内需稳就业意见建议。郑栅洁表示， 希望企业增强信心、抓住机遇，充分利用国内国际两个市场两种资源，有序开展市场竞争，为扩内需、 稳就业多作贡献； 2、相关部门近期将会发放卫星互联网牌照。专家表示，牌照的发放，意味着我国卫星互联网商业运营 迈出第一步; 3、沪指 3900 点在望，两市 ETF 交投火爆，收盘成交额达到 5558.48 亿元。全市场 ETF 规模前一个交易 日已经达到 4.97 万亿，即将突破 5 万亿元； 4、百济神州：RoyaltyPharma 同意在交割时支付 8.85 亿美元 购买单克隆抗体 Imdelltra 在中国以外 地区的特许权使用费。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.12%/0.05%/-0.26%/-0.60%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.61%/-1.08%/-2.40%/-4.07%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.88%/-1.51%/-2.88%/-4.94%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.07%/0.1 ...

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com. ...

每经AI快讯，8月26日，上期所原油期货主力合约夜盘收涨1.16%，报499.20元/桶。沪金夜盘收涨 0.13%，沪银收涨0.04%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

8月25日，国内商品期货收盘，主力合约多数收涨，焦煤涨超6%，燃料油涨超5%，焦炭涨超4%，BR橡 胶、集运欧线、铁矿石、玻璃涨超2%，沪银、纯碱、锰硅、氧化铝、液化气涨超1%。跌幅方面，碳酸 锂、苯乙烯、尿素小幅下跌。 ...

文字早评 2025/08/25 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 消息面： 1、工信部：将有序引导算力设施建设 加快突破 GPU 芯片等关键核心技术； 2、《稀土开采和稀土冶炼分离总量调控管理暂行办法》发布，办法规定国家对稀土开采和冶炼分离实 行总量调控管理; 3、光伏行业协会倡议，坚决抵制以低于成本的价格开展恶性竞争，坚决抵制违反市场经济规律和法律 法规盲目扩产增产； 4、美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上表示，形势表明美国就业下行风险上升。风险平衡 的变化可能构成调整政策的理由。鲍威尔称，美联储对降息持开放态度。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.37%/0.22%/-0.07%/-0.61%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.18%/-0.77%/-1.96%/-3.74%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.19%/-0.83%/-2.31%/-4.44%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.46%/0.32%/0.54%/0.63%。 交易逻辑：中央政治局会议强调增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好的势头， 进一步确认了政策对资本市场的呵护态度。近期持续上涨后 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The market is awaiting Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting on Friday to verify the reasonableness of bets on a September interest rate cut. Due to the sharp rebound in the US PPI and the resilience of retail data, there are concerns that Powell may adopt a hawkish stance, leading to cautious trading sentiment. However, the interference with the Fed's independence by Trump's call for Cook to resign has weakened the US dollar and provided a rebound opportunity for precious metals. In the future, the potential for the US to enter a "stagflation-like" situation under tariff shocks supports precious metals, and it is expected that precious metals will continue to trade in a high-range oscillation pattern. [2][3] - For copper, the market focuses on the future interest rate cut rhythm and Powell's speech at the "Global Central Bank Annual Meeting." Domestically, the anti-involution sentiment has subsided, and commodities have generally declined. Fundamentally, the supply of copper ore has been temporarily alleviated, but the increase in LME inventory and the potential inflow of imported goods may put pressure on prices. Demand remains weak, with low restocking enthusiasm from end-users. [5][9] - Alumina's price is reverting to fundamentals as market speculation cools. Although the overall supply-demand situation remains in surplus, short-term supply disruptions due to maintenance plans at some alumina plants may limit price declines. Attention should be paid to the support of the futures price from the expected regression of the basis after it turns positive. [11][13][15] - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro environment is affected by the progress of the Russia-Ukraine issue and the anticipation of Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. Domestically, the "anti-involution" sentiment is waning. Fundamentally, the increase in aluminum rod production and the decline in aluminum ingot factory inventories have reduced the pressure on social inventory, and low inventory levels may make domestic aluminum prices relatively more resistant to decline compared to the international market. [18][21] - In the case of casting aluminum alloy, the supply is tightening due to the shortage of scrap aluminum, production cuts in some factories, and reduced imports. Demand remains weak, with downstream enterprises mainly engaging in just-in-time procurement. [26][27] - Zinc prices are under pressure due to the continuous increase in domestic supply and weak terminal consumption, leading to a build-up in social inventory. [29][32] - Lead prices are likely to trade in a range due to weak supply and demand. The consumption of lead-acid batteries is sluggish, and the losses of secondary lead smelters are widening, leading to an expansion in production cuts. [35][36][39] - Nickel prices are expected to trade in a wide range due to the large supply surplus and the lack of clear short-term supply-demand contradictions. The increase in refined nickel imports in July did not result in a corresponding increase in domestic inventory, suggesting the accumulation of invisible inventory. [41][42][43] - Stainless steel prices are expected to trade in a wide range, with limited upward momentum due to weak demand and downward support from cost factors. The global economic outlook, tariff policies, and Fed decisions continue to influence the market. [47] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to trade in a range, with the core contradiction being the change in sentiment and fundamental expectations. The market is influenced by the prices of coking coal and polysilicon, and the potential increase in production by leading manufacturers at the end of the month. [50][51][52] - Polysilicon prices are expected to trade in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. Although the fundamental situation is bearish due to oversupply in August, the price is supported by cost factors. The futures price is recommended to be bought on dips. [54][55][56] - Carbonate lithium prices are expected to rebound after a significant decline. The market overreacted to negative news, but the supply-demand situation may tighten in September due to reduced imports. The price is recommended to be bought after a sufficient correction. [58][60][61] - Tin prices are expected to continue to trade in an oscillatory pattern. The market is in a state of tight balance with weak supply and demand. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the recovery of production in Myanmar is expected to be delayed until the fourth quarter. [63][65][66] Summary by Directory Precious Metals Market Review - London gold rose 0.94% to $3,347.335 per ounce, and London silver rose 1.44% to $37.855 per ounce. The Shanghai gold and silver futures contracts also closed higher. The US dollar index fell 0.05% to 98.218, the 10-year US Treasury yield declined to 4.2868%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.08% to 7.177. [2] Important News - Trump called on Fed Governor Cook to resign, and Cook refused. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most officials believed it was appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged, but more officials were open to a September rate cut after the August 1 employment report. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 18.1%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 81.9%. Israel has not responded to the ceasefire proposal from Hamas. [2] Logic Analysis - The market is waiting for Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. The interference with the Fed's independence has weakened the US dollar and supported precious metals. The potential for the US to enter a "stagflation-like" situation supports precious metals in the future. [3] Trading Strategy - Go long on dips near the 5-day moving average for single positions, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [3] Copper Market Review - The night session of the SHFE copper 2509 contract closed at 78,730 yuan/ton, up 0.19%, and the LME copper closed at $9,721 per ton, up 0.38%. The LME inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 156,300 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 593 tons to 270,500 tons. [5] Important News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported keeping interest rates unchanged. Codelco will lower its 2025 production guidance due to an accident at its El Teniente mine. China's imports of copper scrap, copper ore, and refined copper in July showed different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. [5][7][8] Logic Analysis - The market focuses on the future interest rate cut rhythm and Powell's speech. Domestically, the anti-involution sentiment has subsided, and commodities have generally declined. Fundamentally, the supply of copper ore has been temporarily alleviated, but the increase in LME inventory and the potential inflow of imported goods may put pressure on prices. Demand remains weak, with low restocking enthusiasm from end-users. [9] Trading Strategy - Copper prices are under pressure due to short-term supply increases. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [9] Alumina Market Review - The night session of the alumina 2509 contract rose 46 yuan to 3,155 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed slight changes. [11] Important News - A large aluminum plant in the northwest made a large-scale spot purchase, which led to a slight decline in spot prices. The national alumina production capacity and operating rate increased slightly. The alumina warehouse receipts increased by 2,997 tons to 75,050 tons. Overseas, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded at a price of $369 per ton FOB Australia for September shipment. China's alumina exports and imports in July increased compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The import of bauxite also increased significantly. [11][12][13] Logic Analysis - The market speculation sentiment has cooled, and the price is reverting to fundamentals. The supply-demand situation remains in surplus, but short-term supply disruptions due to maintenance plans at some alumina plants may limit price declines. Attention should be paid to the support of the futures price from the expected regression of the basis after it turns positive. [13][15] Trading Strategy - Alumina prices are expected to trade in a weak oscillatory pattern. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [16] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night session of the SHFE aluminum 2509 contract rose 70 yuan to 20,590 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions declined. [18] Important News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported keeping interest rates unchanged. There are discussions about a potential meeting between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky. The main market electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 0.6 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,529 tons to 62,938 tons. A 600,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia has entered the construction phase. China's aluminum ingot imports and exports in July showed different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. A project in Inner Mongolia is expected to be completed by the end of the year. [18][19][21] Logic Analysis - The macro environment is affected by the progress of the Russia-Ukraine issue and the anticipation of Powell's speech. Domestically, the "anti-involution" sentiment is waning. Fundamentally, the increase in aluminum rod production and the decline in aluminum ingot factory inventories have reduced the pressure on social inventory, and low inventory levels may make domestic aluminum prices relatively more resistant to decline compared to the international market. [21] Trading Strategy - Aluminum prices are expected to trade in a weak oscillatory pattern in the short term. Consider a long SHFE aluminum and short LME aluminum arbitrage if the Russia-Ukraine issue continues to ease, and exit if the talks are not successful. Pay attention to the widening of the contango when the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreases. Stay on the sidelines for options trading. [22] Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night session of the casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 45 yuan to 20,090 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions remained stable. [24] Important News - A policy document may affect the recycling aluminum industry. The weighted average full cost of the Chinese casting aluminum alloy (ADC12) industry in July increased slightly compared to June, and the industry's theoretical profit increased. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three regions increased slightly. [26] Logic Analysis - The supply is tightening due to the shortage of scrap aluminum, production cuts in some factories, and reduced imports. Demand remains weak, with downstream enterprises mainly engaging in just-in-time procurement. [27] Trading Strategy - Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to trade in a weak oscillatory pattern. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [28] Zinc Market Review - The overnight LME zinc market rose 0.58% to $2,786 per ton, and the SHFE zinc 2510 contract rose 0.41% to 22,300 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Shanghai remained stable, and the downstream showed a wait-and-see attitude. [29] Important News - China's zinc concentrate imports in July increased significantly compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The exports of galvanized sheets increased slightly, while the exports of zinc oxide and die-cast zinc alloy decreased significantly. The safety inspections in northern lead-zinc mines have increased, but there is no direct impact on production for now. [29][30][31] Logic Analysis - The continuous increase in domestic supply and weak terminal consumption have led to a build-up in social inventory, putting pressure on zinc prices. [32] Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the domestic social inventory situation. If there is a significant build-up, zinc prices may decline further. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [33] Lead Market Review - The overnight LME lead market rose 0.33% to $1,980.5 per ton, and the SHFE lead 2510 contract rose 0.18% to 16,775 yuan/ton. The spot price of SMM1 lead declined, and the downstream battery production enterprises mainly made just-in-time purchases. [35] Important News - China's lead-acid battery imports and exports in July showed different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. Some secondary lead smelters lowered their purchase prices, but the arrival of scrap lead was not significantly improved. The LME received a registration application for a new lead brand. [35] Logic Analysis - The consumption of lead-acid batteries is sluggish, and the losses of secondary lead smelters are widening, leading to an expansion in production cuts. The supply and demand are both weak, and lead prices are likely to trade in a range. [36][39] Trading Strategy - Trade lead prices in a range by selling high and buying low. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [39] Nickel Market Review - The overnight LME nickel price fell $15 to $15,045 per ton, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 18 tons to 209,346 tons. The SHFE nickel main contract NI2510 rose 180 yuan to 120,370 yuan/ton. The premiums of different nickel products showed different changes. [41] Important News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that only two officials voted against keeping interest rates unchanged. NATO discussed Ukraine's security guarantee issue. The global refined nickel supply was in surplus in June and from January to June. [41][42] Logic Analysis - The large supply surplus limits the upward movement of nickel prices. The increase in refined nickel imports in July did not result in a corresponding increase in domestic inventory, suggesting the accumulation of invisible inventory. The short-term supply-demand situation is balanced, and prices are expected to trade in a wide range. [43][45] Trading Strategy - Sell out-of-the-money put options. [45] Stainless Steel Market Review - The main contract SS2510 remained unchanged at 12,830 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold-rolled and hot-rolled stainless steel remained stable. [47] Important News - A 600,000-set carbon steel and stainless steel high-end precision casting project started construction. The stainless steel inventory in Foshan decreased slightly. [47] Logic Analysis - The global economic outlook, tariff policies, and Fed decisions continue to influence the market. The concentration of steel mill maintenance in August and the subsequent planned resumptions have increased the sales pressure. The increase in the nickel iron price provides cost support, but the lack of demand limits the upward movement of prices. [47] Trading Strategy - Stainless steel prices are expected to trade in a wide range. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage. [48] Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures price declined due to the fall in coking coal and polysilicon prices. The spot prices also decreased. [51] Important News - A new product of a subsidiary of Xin'an Co., Ltd. was included in the list of excellent industrial new products in Zhejiang Province. [51] Logic Analysis - The core contradiction in the industrial silicon market is the change in sentiment and fundamental expectations. The market is influenced by the prices of coking coal and polysilicon, and the potential increase in production by leading manufacturers at the end of the month. The supply and demand situation is relatively balanced, and prices are expected to trade in a range. [52] Trading Strategy - Trade industrial silicon prices in the range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton by buying on dips near the lower end of the range. Consider a reverse arbitrage between the 11th and 12th contracts. [52] Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures price fell and then rebounded after the limit-down of lithium carbonate.，The spot prices increased slightly. [54][55] Important News - Trump stated that his government will not approve photovoltaic or wind power projects. [55] Logic Analysis - The polysilicon production in August is expected to be in surplus, but the price is supported by cost factors. The previous low price level provides strong support, and the high price level is limited by the potential large-scale selling for delivery. The futures price is recommended to be bought on dips. [55] Trading Strategy - Buy polysilicon futures on dips in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. Consider a positive arbitrage between the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Sell out-of-the-money put options and buy call options. [56] Carbonate Lithium Market Review - The carbonate lithium futures price hit the limit-down, and the spot prices remained stable. [58] Important News - A Chilean lithium producer expects an increase in sales in the third quarter and plans to submit an environmental research report for a lithium project next year. The government exposed two cases of tax fraud in the "new three" fields. The retail and wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in August showed growth compared to the same period last year and the previous month. [58][60] Logic Analysis - The sharp decline in carbonate lithium prices was due to market overreaction to negative news and the exit of large funds. However, the supply-demand situation may tighten in

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the short - term, some markets may experience increased volatility, but the long - term direction depends on factors such as policy support, supply - demand balance, and cost changes [3][6]. - The "anti - involution" policy has an impact on the market, causing price fluctuations in related commodities, and the market is expected to gradually return to the fundamentals after the emotional impact fades [31]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations, and investors should make decisions based on specific market conditions and risk tolerance [31]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial Index Futures - The government has issued policies on local government project implementation and merger - acquisition loans. Some companies have new developments, and there are expectations of stock selling by Buffett [2]. - The basis ratios of different term contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH are given. The market may experience increased short - term volatility after continuous rises, but the general idea is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts decreased on Wednesday. The Ministry of Finance will issue RMB treasury bonds in Hong Kong, and there is a policy on tax exemption for childcare subsidies [4]. - The central bank conducted a large - scale reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net investment of 4975 billion yuan. The economic data in the first half of the year showed resilience, but the PMI data in July was lower than expected. The interest rate is expected to decline in the long - term, and the bond market may return to a wide - range shock pattern in the short - term [4][5][6]. Precious Metals - The prices of domestic and foreign gold and silver rose. Trump's team pressured the Fed's independence, which led to a rebound in precious metal prices. The speech of Fed Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting will significantly affect the prices of precious metals. It is recommended to wait for Powell's speech, and if it is dovish, consider going long on silver [7][8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The export volume in July was high, and the apparent consumption was weaker than expected. The LME inventory increased, and the copper price fluctuated slightly higher. The domestic copper spot import was profitable, and the scrap copper substitution advantage decreased slightly. The copper price may consolidate and wait for Powell's speech for further guidance [10]. Aluminum - The domestic black - series commodities first declined and then rebounded. The aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the aluminum price recovered after a decline. The external market was under some pressure, but the domestic aluminum price still had support due to low inventory and strong export data, and it may turn to a shock pattern in the short - term [12]. Zinc - The zinc price increased slightly. The zinc ore inventory decreased marginally, but the zinc concentrate TC was still rising. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots was increasing, and the LME market's structural disturbance was receding. The zinc price still had a large downward risk [13]. Lead - The lead price decreased. The lead ore inventory was tight, and the processing fee was declining. The supply and demand of the lead industry were both weak, and the lead price was expected to run weakly [14]. Nickel - The nickel price fluctuated. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price had limited upward momentum, and the MHP supply was short. The downstream stainless - steel demand improvement was limited, but the nickel price had support in the long - term. It is recommended to go long on dips [15][16]. Tin - The tin price fluctuated narrowly. The supply was short - term tight, and the demand was weak in the off - season. The tin price was expected to fluctuate as the Myanmar复产 continued [17]. Carbonate Lithium - The price of carbonate lithium decreased significantly. The sentiment of long - looking funds supported by supply disturbances cooled down, and the price support level was expected to rise in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the import of lithium salts and lithium ores [18]. Alumina - The alumina index increased. The supply of domestic and foreign ores was disturbed, and the futures price had limited downward space after a sharp decline. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price decreased. The decline was mainly affected by low - price selling by some arbitrage institutions. The downstream procurement was cautious, and the price was expected to continue to fluctuate [20]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The price of the casting aluminum alloy contract decreased slightly. The downstream was in the off - season, and the supply and demand were both weak. The cost had strong support, but the upward resistance was increasing [21]. Black Building Materials Steel - The price of the rebar main contract increased slightly, and the hot - rolled coil price decreased slightly. The export of steel continued to be weakly volatile. The demand for rebar decreased significantly, and the inventory accumulation speed increased. The demand for hot - rolled coils recovered, and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. If the demand cannot be effectively repaired, the steel price may decline [23][24][25]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price decreased slightly. The overseas iron ore shipment and arrival volume increased. The steel mill's iron production increased, and the port and steel mill inventory increased. The terminal demand was weak, and the iron ore price may be adjusted in the short - term [26][27]. Glass and Soda Ash - The glass price decreased, the inventory increased, and the downstream demand had not improved significantly. The glass price was expected to fluctuate in the short - term and follow the macro - sentiment in the long - term [28]. - The soda - ash price decreased slightly, the inventory increased, and the downstream demand was tepid. The soda - ash price was expected to fluctuate in the short - term and the price center may gradually rise in the long - term, but the upward space was limited [29]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon decreased. The "anti - involution" policy had an impact on the market, but the fundamental situation of over - supply of manganese silicon did not change. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities [30][31][32]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The industrial silicon price decreased. The over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand problems remained. The production in the southwest region increased rapidly, and the price was expected to fluctuate weakly [33][34]. - The polysilicon price decreased slightly. The production increased, the inventory removal was limited, and the price was expected to fluctuate widely [35][36]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - The prices of NR and RU decreased and then recovered. The long - and short - sides have different views. The tire enterprise's operating rate showed different trends, and the natural rubber inventory decreased. The rubber price was expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see [38][39][42]. Crude Oil - The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil increased, and the INE crude oil price decreased. The U.S. crude oil commercial inventory decreased, and the SPR increased. The current oil price was undervalued, and it was a good opportunity for left - hand side layout [43]. Methanol - The methanol price increased. The coal price increased, and the supply pressure was large. The demand was weak in the short - term but may improve in the peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. Urea - The urea price decreased. The domestic supply was loose, and the demand was average. The enterprise profit was low, and the price fluctuation was narrowing. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [45]. Styrene - The styrene price increased. The macro - sentiment was good, the cost had support, the port inventory decreased, and the demand improved. The styrene price was expected to follow the cost and fluctuate upward [46]. PVC - The PVC price increased. The cost was stable, the supply was strong, the demand was weak, and the valuation pressure was large. It is recommended to wait and see [48]. Glycol - The glycol price increased. The supply decreased slightly, the downstream demand recovered slightly, and the port inventory decreased. The valuation was relatively high, and the fundamental situation may turn weak [49]. PTA - The PTA price increased. The supply was expected to accumulate inventory, the demand improved slightly, and the processing fee had limited space. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX on dips [50][51]. p - Xylene - The p - xylene price increased. The load increased, the downstream PTA had more short - term maintenance, and the inventory was expected to decrease. The valuation was neutral, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following crude oil on dips [52]. Polyethylene (PE) - The PE price increased. The market expected favorable policies, the cost had support, the inventory was high, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be determined by the game between the cost and supply in the short - term [53]. Polypropylene (PP) - The PP price increased. The production profit rebounded, the supply may increase, the demand was weak in the off - season, and the price was expected to follow the crude - oil price and fluctuate upward [54]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The domestic pig price generally increased. The market was expected to have a supply - demand game in the third - quarter end. The short - term strategy is to buy at low prices, the medium - term is to pay attention to the upper pressure, and the long - term is to use the reverse - spread strategy [56]. Eggs - The egg price was mostly stable and partly decreased. The supply was large, the demand was weak, and the price was expected to be mostly down and partly stable. The short - term disk may fluctuate, and the medium - term is to pay attention to short - position opportunities after the rebound [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The U.S. soybean price fluctuated slightly higher. The domestic soybean meal price followed the external cost and fluctuated. The soybean import cost was stable and slightly increased, and the domestic supply was seasonally excessive. It is recommended to go long on dips in the cost - range low position [58][59]. Oils and Fats - The domestic three major oils fluctuated. The demand and low inventory in Southeast Asia provided support. The palm oil price was expected to be above 4300 ringgit per ton in the short - term. The overall oil price was expected to fluctuate strongly, but the upward space was limited [60][61][62]. Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The international sugar production may increase, and the domestic import supply will increase. The Zhengzhou sugar price may continue to decline [63]. Cotton - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price decreased slightly. The USDA report was favorable, and the suspension of tariffs was positive for the domestic cotton price. However, the downstream consumption was average, and the cotton price was expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [64][65].