Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for platinum and palladium is bullish in the long - term [4] Report's Core View - The long - term core logic for being bullish on platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensified due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. Despite significant short - term pullbacks, the long - term value of platinum and palladium as reserves is highlighted under the de - dollarization trend, and the supply - demand fundamentals in the industrial sector are favorable [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Platinum Futures**: For contracts pt2606, pt2608, and pt2610, the current prices are 493.10, 493.55, and 489.90 respectively. The price changes are 0.80, 2.45, and 0.15, with percentage changes of 0.16%, 0.50%, and 0.03%. The trading volumes are 7351, 271, and 105 respectively, and the open interests are all 13298. The spot premiums are 1.96, 1.51, and 5.16 [1] - **Palladium Futures**: For contracts pd2606, pd2608, and pd2610, the current prices are 361.40, 361.10, and 358.70 respectively. The price changes are 3.20, 2.50, and 0.50, with percentage changes of 0.89%, 0.70%, and 0.14%. The trading volumes are 2782, 69, and 23 respectively, and the open interests are all 4904. The spot premiums are - 5.4, - 5.1, and - 2.7 [1] Spot Market - **Platinum Spot**: The price of Shanghai platinum is 495.06 yuan/gram, with a change of 5.41 and a percentage change of 0.011%. The price of London platinum is 1908.00 US dollars/ounce, with a change of - 12.00 and a percentage change of - 0.006%. The prices of Zhou Dafu and Lao Fengxiang platinum are 758.00 yuan/gram and 850.00 yuan/gram respectively, with changes of 16.00 and 0.00 and percentage changes of 0.022% and 0.000% [1] - **Palladium Spot**: The price of Chinese palladium is 356.00 yuan/gram, with a change of 12.00 and a percentage change of 0.035%. The price of Russian palladium is 3735.53 rubles/gram, with a change of 110.32 and a percentage change of 0.030% [1] Inventory - **Platinum Inventory**: The current NYMEX inventory is 541,249.04 ounces, a decrease of 12991.8 ounces compared to the previous value. The registered warehouse receipts are 311,333.49 ounces, a decrease of 1006.9 ounces. The trading volume of the Gold Exchange is 792.11 million yuan, a decrease of 3814.5 million yuan, and the trading volume is 16.00 kilograms, a decrease of 80.0 kilograms [1] - **Palladium Inventory**: The current NYMEX inventory is 247,765.39 ounces, a decrease of 608.3 ounces compared to the previous value. The registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 211,887.35 ounces [1] Related Derivatives and Indexes - **Related Indexes**: The current dollar index is 99.88, a decrease of 0.62 compared to the previous value. The S&P 500 index is 6528.52, an increase of 184.80. The US Treasury yield is 4.30, a decrease of 0.05. The Nasdaq index is 21590.63, an increase of 795.99. The Dow Jones index is 46341.51, an increase of 1125.37. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate remains unchanged at 6.92 [1] - **Related Derivatives**: The current prices of Shanghai Gold contracts 2604, 2606, and 2608 are 1010.00, 1020.10, and 1023.30 respectively, with changes of - 1.02, 5.22, and 5.38. The current prices of Shanghai Silver contracts 2604, 2606, and 2608 are 18137.00, 18126.00, and 18114.00 respectively, with changes of 381, 419, and 432 [1] Macro News - **Fed Policy**: The Fed keeps the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, and the dot - plot shows only one rate cut in 2026 - 2027, indicating a more conservative stance [2] - **Geopolitical Event**: The military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran have disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz [2] - **Fed Personnel Nomination**: Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, but the nomination faces opposition in the Senate [2] - **PBOC Meeting**: The People's Bank of China emphasizes promoting the high - quality development of the modern payment system in 2026 [3] Comments and Strategies - **Short - term Situation**: As of March 3, 2026, platinum and palladium have pulled back significantly from their highs, mainly due to Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, which has led to short - term strengthening of the US dollar [4] - **Long - term Logic**: The long - term bullish logic remains intact, supported by factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit, the global central bank's gold - buying spree, and favorable supply - demand fundamentals in the industrial sector [4]

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that precious metals are gaining traction amid recession expectations, with gold and silver prices rising by 1.4% and 3.4% respectively, while industrial metals show mixed performance [1][3] - The energy and chemical sectors are experiencing a downturn, with crude oil and fuel prices dropping by 2.9% and 3.8%, respectively, and chemical products like PVC and methanol seeing declines of 4.5% to 5.4% [1] - A significant capital outflow of 14.3 billion yuan from commodity indices has been noted, with the precious metals sector attracting over 2.7 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets [1] Group 2 - The report highlights the ongoing volatility in the oil market, driven by geopolitical tensions and mixed signals regarding military actions in the Gulf region, which contribute to fluctuating prices [2] - The market is transitioning from a narrative of high oil prices driving inflation to one where high oil prices may suppress demand and lead to economic slowdown, with upcoming employment data expected to validate this shift [3] - The report notes that the volatility of gold remains high, with a historical volatility rate of 42.7, suggesting that investors should exercise patience in positioning within the precious metals market [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Middle - East situation and oil price shocks will continue to disrupt global risk appetite. A - share market is difficult to completely shake off external emotional suppression in the short term, and it is necessary to closely monitor the evolution of the Middle - East situation, international oil price trends, and the further transmission of external market fluctuations to A - share sentiment [8][15] - The inter - bank liquidity in the bond market is still relatively abundant. The central bank's open - market operations continue to send signals of care. Treasury bond futures are generally strong, with the long - end performing better, and the short - term bond market may maintain a strong and volatile pattern [11][15] - The core logic of the commodity market is the parallel evolution of geopolitical risk premium and domestic fundamental repair. Precious metals are strong due to the Middle - East situation and macro - expectation repricing, while industrial metals such as tin benefit from the marginal recovery of manufacturing prosperity. The commodity market may still have a structural market in the short term [9][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情Analysis Stock Market - A - share market indices were under pressure, and the trading volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3891.86 points, down 0.80%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13478.06 points, down 1.81%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3184.95 points, down 2.70%; the STAR 50 Index closed at 1256.33 points, down 2.59%. The total A - share trading volume was about 2.01 trillion yuan, up 4.1% from the previous trading day [7] - The market showed a pattern of more falling stocks than rising stocks, with 1008 rising stocks and 4372 falling stocks. The growth technology direction adjusted significantly, while sectors such as home appliances, banks, and food and beverages were relatively resistant to decline [6][7] Bond Market - The treasury bond futures market showed a pattern of strong long - end and stable short - end. The 30 - year treasury bond futures TL2606 rose 0.15%, closing at 111.69 yuan, with a trading volume of 852.75 billion yuan; the 10 - year treasury bond futures T2606 rose 0.04%, closing at 108.40 yuan, with a trading volume of 881.23 billion yuan; the 5 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.03%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures were flat compared with the previous day [11] - The central bank carried out 325 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 150 billion yuan. Except for the 7 - day Shibor, other term Shibor rates declined, indicating that the liquidity was further relaxed [11] Commodity Market - The commodity index declined, but non - ferrous metals performed strongly. The Nanhua Commodity Index closed at 3074.6 points, down 0.91%. Leading gainers included Shanghai silver, soybean No.1, Shanghai gold, Shanghai aluminum, and double - gum paper, while leading losers included PVC, LPG, coking coal, container shipping index (European line), and lithium carbonate [9] Trading Hotspot Tracking Recent Hot - Product Review - Artificial intelligence: Global industrialization is accelerating, and new applications are emerging. Key points to follow include changes in capital expenditure of leading enterprises, transformation of application scenarios, and product technology upgrades [14] - Commercial space: With the establishment of commercial space companies and strong support for development, key points to follow include domestic recoverable rocket launches and technological breakthroughs of overseas leaders such as SPACEX [14] - Nuclear fusion: Industrialization is accelerating, and artificial intelligence drives the increase in power demand. Key points to follow include project progress and industry bidding [14] - Big consumption: Policy promotes consumption upgrading. Key points to follow include economic recovery and further stimulus policies [14] - Securities firms: A - share trading volume is running at a high level. Key points to follow include A - share trading volume and possible changes in trading systems [14] - Precious metals: Central banks continue to increase holdings, and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates. Key points to follow include further interest - rate cut expectations of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks [14] - Energy and chemicals: The Middle - East geopolitical situation affects supply. Key points to follow include the progress of the conflict and changes in crude oil prices [14] - Shanghai silver strengthened significantly. Due to the uncertainty in the Middle - East and the game of macro - expectations, precious metals recovered. Shanghai tin strengthened oscillatingly, supported by the recovery of manufacturing prosperity [14] Recent Core Idea Summary - In the equity market, focus on the impact of the Middle - East situation, oil prices, and external market fluctuations on A - share sentiment [15] - In the bond market, the short - term bond market may maintain a strong and volatile pattern, with the long - end of treasury bonds performing better [15] - In the commodity market, it may show a structural market in the short term. Pay attention to the evolution of the Middle - East situation, oil price trends, and the sustainability of domestic demand recovery [15]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No report on industry investment rating is available in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical conflict remains the core focus of the market. Iran refuses to participate in the peace - talks organized by Pakistan and plans to levy tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The US has a tough stance, threatening to attack Iran's energy facilities. The entry of the Houthi armed forces poses a threat to the shipping safety of the Bab - el - Mandeb Strait, increasing the global energy supply risk. Powell's speech on Monday was dovish, indicating that the current policy is somewhat restrictive and more attention is paid to the downward employment market. The short - term pressure on precious metals has been temporarily alleviated, but long - term inflation expectations may rise. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 950 - 1100 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver is 15000 - 20500 yuan/kilogram [4] Group 3: Market Quotes and Information Gold - Shanghai gold rose 1.73% to 1009.44 yuan/gram, and COMEX gold rose 0.12% to 4529.90 US dollars/ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.44%, and the US dollar index was 100.26 [2] - In terms of detailed gold data, for COMEX gold, the closing price of the active contract increased by 2.58% to 4489.70 US dollars/ounce, the trading volume decreased by 69.57% to 7.27 million lots, the position decreased by 1.81% to 40.39 million lots, and the inventory decreased by 0.60% to 986 tons. For LBMA gold, the closing price increased by 1.07% to 4504.15 US dollars/ounce. For SHFE gold, the closing price of the active contract increased by 1.62% to 1014.88 yuan/gram, the trading volume increased by 14.93% to 50.55 million lots, the position increased by 3.68% to 28.38 million lots, the inventory remained unchanged at 106.64 tons, and the settled funds increased by 5.36% to 460.81 billion yuan. For AuT + D, the trading volume increased by 11.58% to 91.15 tons, and the position increased by 0.95% to 241.75 tons [6] Silver - Shanghai silver rose 1.88% to 17763.00 yuan/kilogram, and COMEX silver fell 1.42% to 68.81 US dollars/ounce [2] - In terms of detailed silver data, for COMEX silver, the closing price of the active contract increased by 2.41% to 69.77 US dollars/ounce, the position decreased by 1.39% to 11.32 million lots, and the inventory decreased by 0.08% to 10211 tons. For LBMA silver, the closing price increased by 0.75% to 67.80 US dollars/ounce. For SHFE silver, the closing price of the active contract increased by 1.25% to 17707.00 yuan/kilogram, the trading volume increased by 21.82% to 159.25 million lots, the position increased by 0.53% to 45.51 million lots, the inventory increased by 0.71% to 374.43 tons, and the settled funds increased by 1.78% to 217.57 billion yuan. For AgT + D, the trading volume increased by 0.39% to 294.24 tons, and the position decreased by 0.34% to 2839.936 tons [6] Group 4: Geopolitical and Policy Information Geopolitical - Iran has received information from the US seeking dialogue through mediators but believes the US requirements are too harsh and unreasonable, and will not participate in the war - related meetings led by Pakistan. Iran's parliament has passed a bill to levy tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, with a single oil tanker possibly paying up to 2 million US dollars. The new navigation control plan also prohibits the passage of ships related to the US, Israel, and countries that have imposed unilateral sanctions on Iran, and the tolls must be settled in Iranian Rial. The US has threatened to destroy all power - generation facilities, oil wells, and Kharg Island in Iran if the Strait of Hormuz fails to resume navigation immediately [3] Policy - Powell said that the current Fed policy rate remains somewhat restrictive, enabling the Fed to better respond to subsequent economic developments. There are no signs that the Fed's previous bond - buying actions have led to inflation, and the large - scale balance sheet has not shown the significant downward risks widely feared by the market. Regarding the impact of the Middle East situation on oil prices, the Fed will remain on the sidelines for now as its policy tools are ineffective against supply - side shocks, but will closely monitor inflation expectations, which are currently stable. Additionally, both supply and demand in the labor market have slowed, and the downward risk of employment has increased [2] Group 5: ETF Holdings Information Gold ETFs - For SPDR in the US, the closing price decreased by 0.03% to 414.58 US dollars, the holding volume decreased by 0.33% to 1046.13 tons, the settled funds increased by 0.22% to 1522.79 billion US dollars, and the trading volume decreased by 21.66% to 1298.93 million shares. For iShare in the US, the holding volume increased by 0.07% to 475.02 tons. For GBS, PHAU, and GOLD in the UK, and SGBS in Switzerland, the holding volumes remained unchanged [66] Silver ETFs - For SLV in the US, the closing price increased by 0.13% to 63.52 US dollars, the holding volume decreased by 0.79% to 15288.36 tons, the settled funds increased by 3.54% to 347.60 billion US dollars, and the trading volume decreased by 44.09% to 2924.13 million shares. For ETPMAG in Australia, PSLV, and CEF in Canada, the holding volumes remained unchanged [66]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical conflict situation has become the core focus of the market, and the gold price trend is significantly affected by relevant news. With the Middle - East conflict entering the second month and continuing to escalate, Pakistan plans to host US - Iran talks in the coming days to resolve the conflict, but the positions of the US, Israel, and Iran are all tough. Meanwhile, the Houthi armed forces have entered the fray and threatened the shipping safety of the Mandeb Strait, increasing the global energy supply risk. In a high - oil - price environment, the stickiness of inflation expectations is further highlighted. Coupled with the shift of market interest - rate cut expectations, the short - term trend of precious metals is still under phased pressure. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 950 - 1050 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 15000 - 20500 yuan/kilogram [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 1.73% to 1009.44 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver rose 1.88% to 17763.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 0.15% to 4531.20 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver fell 1.43% to 68.80 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.44%, and the US dollar index was 100.26 [2] News Events - The US Senate Banking Committee plans to hold a hearing for Kevin Warsh, the nominee for Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump, as early as the week of April 13. However, Warsh has not submitted his full - version manuscript yet [2] - The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagheri stated that the relevant proposal submitted by the US through mediators is extreme and unreasonable. The proposal involves Iran's basic rights, lacks good - will and a serious diplomatic attitude. Iran emphasizes relying on its own capabilities to ensure security and will use all means to prevent another attack. At the same time, the Yemeni Houthi armed forces launched missiles at Israel, opening a new front in the Middle - East war. The Yanbu Port and the Mandeb Strait, where Saudi Arabia's daily oil output exceeds 3.4 million barrels and can bypass the Strait of Hormuz, are within the range of Houthi missiles, posing a serious threat to the last buffer plan in the energy market [2] Strategy Suggestions - Due to the current geopolitical situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 950 - 1050 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 15000 - 20500 yuan/kilogram [3] Gold and Silver Data - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was 4489.70 US dollars/ounce (up 2.58% from the previous day), the trading volume was 7.27 million lots (down 69.57% from the previous day), the open interest was 40.39 million lots (down 1.81% from the previous day), and the inventory was 986 tons (down 0.60% from the previous day) [5] - **LBMA Gold**: The closing price was 4504.15 US dollars/ounce (up 1.07% from the previous day), the closing price of the active contract was 998.66 yuan/gram (up 0.27% from the previous day), the trading volume was 43.98 million lots (up 0.32% from the previous day) [5] - **SHFE Gold**: The open interest was 27.37 million lots (down 3.00% from the previous day), the inventory was 106.64 tons (down 0.09% from the previous day), and the settled funds were 43.737 billion yuan (outflow of 2.74% from the previous day) [5] - **AuT + D**: The trading volume was 81.69 tons (down 4.67% from the previous day), and the open interest was 239.47 tons (up 0.23% from the previous day) [5] - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was 69.77 US dollars/ounce (up 2.41% from the previous day), the open interest was 11.32 million lots (down 1.39% from the previous day), and the inventory was 10211 tons (down 0.08% from the previous day) [5] - **LBMA Silver**: The closing price was 67.80 US dollars/ounce (up 0.75% from the previous day), the closing price of the active contract was 17489.00 yuan/kilogram (up 0.10% from the previous day), the trading volume was 130.73 million lots (up 8.38% from the previous day) [5] - **SHFE Silver**: The open interest was 45.27 million lots (up 0.80% from the previous day), the inventory was 371.80 tons (up 0.41% from the previous day), and the settled funds were 21.376 billion yuan (up 0.89% from the previous day) [5] - **AgT + D**: The trading volume was 293.09 tons (down 31.79% from the previous day), and the open interest was 2849.646 tons (down 0.79% from the previous day) [5] ETF Holdings - **Gold ETFs**: The iShare US gold ETF's holding increased by 0.07% to 474.67 tons; the GBS UK, PHAU UK, and SGBS Switzerland gold ETFs' holdings remained unchanged or increased slightly, while the GOLD UK gold ETF's holding decreased by 0.50% to 29.52 tons [67] - **Silver ETFs**: The SLV US silver ETF's closing price rose 4.39% to 63.44 US dollars, the holding remained unchanged at 15409.46 tons, the settled funds increased by 0.75% to 33.572 billion US dollars, and the trading volume decreased by 6.74% to 5230.07 million shares. The ETPMAG Australia silver ETF's holding decreased by 0.71% to 479.53 tons, while the PSLV Canada and CEF Canada silver ETFs' holdings remained unchanged [67]

Market Analysis - The A-share market showed a moderate recovery, with total trading volume narrowing to 1.86 trillion yuan, a decrease of 4.8% from the previous trading day, marking a new low for the year [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3913.72 points, up 0.63%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.13% to 13760.37 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.71% to 3295.88 points [2] - The market exhibited a broad-based rally, with 4335 stocks rising compared to only 1070 declining, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment [2] Sector Performance - The leading sectors included pharmaceuticals, basic chemicals, and non-ferrous metals, which rose by 3.69%, 2.95%, and 2.83% respectively, reflecting a recovery in risk appetite [5] - Concept indices such as lithium mining (+7.42%), lithium battery electrolyte (+6.18%), and innovative drugs (+5.42%) showed significant strength, driven by expectations of price rebounds and policy support for the biopharmaceutical sector [5][7] - Conversely, defensive sectors like banking, telecommunications, and utilities experienced declines, indicating a shift in capital towards higher-growth areas [5][7] Bond Market - The bond futures market displayed a mixed trend, with short-term bonds rising while long-term bonds weakened, indicating a preference for mid to short-duration securities [11] - The People's Bank of China continued to inject liquidity into the market, maintaining a supportive stance on funding conditions, with Shibor rates remaining stable and low [11] Commodity Market - The commodity index rose, with energy and chemical products continuing to perform strongly; the Nanhua Commodity Index closed at 3073.2 points, up 0.48% [9] - Key commodities such as pure benzene and lithium carbonate saw significant price increases, driven by supply disruptions and strong demand expectations [16] Investment Themes - Key investment themes include artificial intelligence, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, and consumer sectors, with a focus on capital expenditure changes and policy support for consumption upgrades [13][15] - The energy and chemical sectors are influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which continue to affect supply dynamics and pricing [13][15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the close on March 27, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Some commodities like pure benzene and lithium carbonate had significant increases, while others such as container shipping on the European route and caustic soda declined. Futures contracts of stock indexes and treasury bonds also had different trends. The market was affected by factors such as supply - demand, geopolitical situation in the Middle East, and seasonal factors [6][7]. - The prices of most commodities were expected to be volatile due to the tense situation in the Middle East, especially the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which had a great impact on the supply of energy - related commodities. Some commodities were expected to have a strong - side oscillation, but risks needed to be controlled [12][14][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance and Market Overview - As of March 27, pure benzene and lithium carbonate rose by over 6%, styrene (EB) and ethylene glycol (EG) rose by over 5%, and methanol rose by over 4%. Container shipping on the European route fell by over 3%, and caustic soda and silver futures fell by over 2%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also had different trends. In terms of capital flow, some contracts had capital inflows while others had outflows [6][7]. 3.2 Market Analysis of Specific Commodities - **Copper (Shanghai Copper)**: In February 2026, China's copper concentrate imports increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The copper concentrate inventory was relatively low. The production of electrolytic copper increased. The demand from the copper product sector started to pick up, but the terminal data was not optimistic. The inventory decreased, and the price was expected to fluctuate due to the situation in the Middle East [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate rose by over 6% on March 27. The production in March decreased month - on - month. The import volume in February increased year - on - year. The downstream lithium battery production was in high - growth, but the retail of new - energy vehicles decreased year - on - year. The market was affected by the situation in Zimbabwe and the overall upward trend of non - ferrous metals, but there were potential supply risks [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The U.S. crude oil inventory increased more than expected. The Strait of Hormuz was almost closed, which led to production cuts in Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries. Although some measures were taken to relieve the supply pressure, the situation was still tense. The possibility of a U.S. - Iran negotiation was low, and the oil price was at a high - risk of fluctuation [12][14]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate decreased, and the planned production in April was significantly lower. The downstream demand started to recover after the Spring Festival. The inventory rate decreased slightly. The supply was affected by the situation in the Middle East, and the price was expected to oscillate strongly [15]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The downstream PP开工率 increased slightly, but the demand recovery was slow. The enterprise开工率 was at a low level. The cost was affected by the Middle - East situation. The supply was expected to decrease, and the price was expected to oscillate strongly [16][17]. - **Plastic**: The plastic开工率 decreased, and the downstream开工率 increased but did not return to the pre - holiday level. The cost was affected by the Middle - East situation. The supply was expected to decrease, and the price was expected to oscillate strongly [18][20]. - **PVC**: The PVC开工率 increased, and the downstream开工率 also increased but was still lower than the same period last year. The export price increased, but the inventory was still high. The industry had an anti - involution expectation, and the supply was expected to decrease if the Strait of Hormuz did not resume navigation [21]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price decreased on March 27. The mine production resumed smoothly, and the inventory was transferred from mines to downstream. The price decline was a correction after the previous over - rise, and the downward space was expected to be limited [22][23]. - **Urea**: The urea price rose on March 27. The domestic supply was guaranteed by high production and state - reserve goods. The downstream demand was mainly from compound fertilizer factories and other industries. The inventory decreased, and the price was expected to oscillate at a narrow high level [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, there are doubts about the so - called US - Iran peace talks. The US is reported to be formulating a "fatal blow" military plan against Iran, and Iran believes the US negotiation stance is a "third deception" plan. Oil prices have risen again, the Fed's interest - rate hike expectations have resurfaced, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields have strengthened significantly, and global risk appetite has cooled significantly. Domestically, the Chinese economy rebounded better than expected from January to February, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover. The goals and policy intensity in the government work report for 2026 are lower than those in 2025. The short - term trading logic of the market focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks. In the short term, the domestic economy is better than expected, but due to the mixed geopolitical news in the Middle East, the stock index fluctuates weakly and with increased volatility. [3][4] - For assets, the stock index fluctuates weakly and with increased volatility in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously; government bonds fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously; in the commodity sector, black metals fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously; non - ferrous metals fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously; energy and chemical products fluctuate significantly in the short term, and it is advisable to go long cautiously; precious metals fluctuate significantly and weaken in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas, doubts about the US - Iran peace talks, rising oil prices, resurgent Fed interest - rate hike expectations, strengthening of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and cooling of global risk appetite. Domestically, the economy and inflation are better than expected in January - February, and the goals and policy intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The short - term stock index fluctuates weakly and with increased volatility. [3] - Asset suggestions: short - term cautious wait - and - see for stock indices, government bonds, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals; short - term cautious long - position for energy and chemical products. [3] 3.2 Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as insurance, communication services, and photovoltaics, the domestic stock market continued to decline significantly. The economy and inflation are better than expected from January to February, and the goals and policy intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The short - term trading logic focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks, and the stock index fluctuates weakly and with increased volatility. It is advisable to wait and see cautiously in the short term. [4] 3.3 Precious Metals - The precious metals market fell on Thursday night. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 980.08 yuan/gram, down 2.83%; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 16841 yuan/kilogram, down 5.66%. Spot gold restarted its decline, and finally closed down 2.85% at 4377.95 US dollars/ounce; spot silver finally closed down 4.32% at 68.11 US dollars/ounce. Precious metals fluctuate significantly and weaken in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously. [5] 3.4 Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets declined slightly on Thursday, and the trading volume was low. The real demand improved marginally, the apparent consumption of five major steel products increased by 19.49 tons week - on - week, and the inventory decline continued to expand. The supply decreased slightly this week, but the molten iron output increased. The steel market will follow the cost in the short term, and attention should be paid to the price adjustment risk after the cost decline. [6][7] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore rebounded significantly on Thursday, and the futures performance was relatively strong. There are rumors of setbacks in iron ore negotiations. The demand for iron ore is still resilient, and the supply has increased. It is expected that the room for further price increase is limited, and attention should be paid to the phased adjustment risk after the energy price weakens. [7] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded on Thursday, and the futures continued to fluctuate. The alloy prices were supported by the rebound of crude oil prices. The operating rate of silicon manganese increased slightly, and the daily output decreased slightly. The steel procurement in March has basically ended, and the market is waiting for the situation in April. It is advisable to treat the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese with a slightly bullish and fluctuating mindset. [8] 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The copper spot TC is close to - 70 US dollars/ton, a new low. The by - product income makes up for the smelting profit. The refined copper production growth rate is high. The core contradiction lies in the mine end. The inventories at home and abroad are accumulating, and the social inventory has decreased significantly. The sustainability of inventory reduction needs to be observed. [9] - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, due to Iran's opposition to the US proposal, the risk appetite decreased, but the aluminum price was supported. The domestic primary aluminum production increased significantly from January to February, and the pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas may change temporarily. The domestic primary aluminum import remains high, and the supply pressure still exists. [9] - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc ingot inventory continued to decline to 21.44 tons on Thursday, but it is still at a high level in recent years. The zinc ore processing fees in some regions have rebounded, and the domestic smelting output remains relatively high. The demand is not optimistic. [9][10] - **Lead**: The imports of refined lead and crude lead increased significantly from January to February. The production of primary lead and secondary lead increased seasonally. The demand is entering the off - season, and the social inventory of primary lead has decreased. The LME lead inventory is at a high level in the same period in recent years. [11] - **Nickel**: Indonesia may levy a windfall tax on nickel from April 1. The core contradiction lies in the mine end. The RKAB quota in 2026 has decreased significantly, and the MHP supply may decline. The nickel price has support below, but the upside is limited due to high inventories at home and abroad. [12] - **Tin**: The imports of tin ore from Myanmar increased significantly in the first two months, and the import sources are more diversified. The demand is not good overall, but the social inventory has decreased due to downstream replenishment. [13] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate fell 0.64% on Thursday. The supply and demand are both strong, and the social inventory is continuously decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the support range, and it is advisable to lay out positions at low prices. [14] - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon rose 0.58% on Thursday. The supply and demand are both weak, the production capacity is surplus, and the inventory is at a high level. It is priced close to the cost, and it is advisable to operate within the range. [15] - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon fell 2.78% on Thursday. The inventory is continuously accumulating at a high level, and the spot price is falling. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable for short - sellers to hold positions cautiously or take profits in a timely manner. [15] 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US sent mixed signals, and the market is not sure if the US - Iran negotiation will end the Middle - East conflict quickly. Trump postponed the strike on Iran's energy facilities by 10 days. The short - term oil price will face a pattern of a slightly rising center and increased volatility. [16] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price follows the rising oil price, but the downstream is in the off - season, and the demand is affected by high prices. The supply is low, and the short - term absolute price will fluctuate significantly with the oil price. [16] - **PX**: The PX price follows the rising oil price, but the downstream start - up recovery is slow, and it is affected by negative feedback. It is likely to fluctuate in the short term. [17] - **PTA**: The PTA price follows the rising oil price, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious, and the rebound space is limited. It will remain slightly bullish and fluctuating before the oil price rises significantly. [17] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price rebounds slightly with the rising oil price. The port inventory reduction is limited, and the export expectation is increasing. The basis has strengthened slightly and is likely to fluctuate after a decline. [18] - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price remains slightly bullish and fluctuating with the rising oil price. The downstream production reduction suppresses the recovery space, but it can be supported by the cost in the later stage. [18] - **Methanol**: The inland methanol market is strong, and the port basis has strengthened. The inventory at the port and production enterprises has decreased. The supply has tightened, and the fundamentals have been repaired. The price is still firm, but attention should be paid to the marginal changes caused by geopolitical relaxation and downstream negative feedback. [19] - **PP**: The price of PP is supported by the continuous inventory reduction. The market is expected to remain strong, and the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz is the main uncertainty. [20] - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE price is firm. The supply is decreasing, the demand is increasing, and the inventory is being reduced rapidly. It is expected to continue to operate strongly, and geopolitical dynamics are the key variables affecting the external supply. [21] - **Urea**: The domestic urea market is stable. The supply has decreased slightly, the demand shows a pattern of "weak agricultural and strong industrial", and the export policy window is closed. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. [22][23] 3.7 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The 05 - month soybean contract on the CBOT market closed down 0.06% overnight. The US soybean export sales increased significantly in the week ending March 19. Attention should be paid to the revised biofuel blending target and the end - of - month planting area report on Friday. [24] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of imported soybeans and soybean meal is decreasing rapidly, supporting the soybean meal basis. The risk of delayed shipment and arrival of Brazilian soybeans still exists. The rapeseed meal inventory has increased, and it fluctuates with the soybean meal. [24] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing rapidly, and the supply is tight in the short term, supporting the basis. The supply pressure of rapeseed oil may increase, and it is under pressure along with soybean and palm oil. [25] - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil futures rose 0.35% overnight, supported by the strong Chicago soybean oil price, rising crude oil price, and strong export data. The domestic palm oil import is affected by the inverted profit, and the market transaction is light. [25] - **Corn**: The national corn price adjusts within a narrow range. The futures price fluctuates strongly, supporting the spot market. The sales of grassroots grain sources in the producing areas have slowed down, and the inventory at ports and deep - processing enterprises is low. However, the acceptance of high - priced corn by downstream feed enterprises is decreasing, and the possible rice auction in early April may have a negative impact. [26] - **Hogs**: The pig production capacity is in the pain period of adjustment, the demand is slightly improving but still in the off - season, and the breeding loss is increasing. The short - term futures and spot prices may continue to fall, and there are risks in the futures market. [27][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current geopolitical conflict situation has become the core focus of the market, and the gold price trend is significantly affected by relevant news. Although Trump said that the negotiation with Iran is in progress and going smoothly, leaving a cooling - off window for the tense situation in the Middle East, the potential geopolitical risks have not subsided. The recent decline in oil prices helps relieve global inflation pressure, reducing the market's concern about further interest - rate hikes by the Fed to some extent. If the geopolitical conflict eases, the pressure on the global economy from high energy prices and supply - chain disruptions will gradually ease, and the probability of central banks around the world raising interest rates is expected to decline, which may lead to gold regaining upward momentum. However, the inflation expectation caused by high oil prices has not been fully alleviated, and precious metals will remain in a high - level shock in the short term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, with the reference operating range of the main contract of Shanghai Gold being 920 - 1050 yuan/gram and that of the main contract of Shanghai Silver being 14500 - 20500 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On March 27, 2026, Shanghai Gold fell 2.83% to 980.08 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver fell 1.88% to 16841.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold rose 0.45% to 4396.20 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver rose 1.01% to 68.62 US dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.42%, and the US dollar index was 99.87 [1] 3.2 Macro - economic Information - Federal Reserve Governor Cook said that the current labor market is characterized by low recruitment and low lay - offs, which has a particularly significant impact on young workers. Affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the current inflation risk has increased, and the balance of economic risks has tilted more towards the inflation side. The previous US inflation level was close to the 2% policy target, but tariff factors caused inflation to deviate from the target, and the current geopolitical situation has further pushed inflation away from the target level [1] - Trump announced through social media that at the request of Iran, the strike on Iran's energy facilities would be postponed for 10 days, with the window period ending at 20:00 on April 6, 2026, Eastern Time. This move temporarily alleviated the market's concern about the escalation of conflicts in the energy sector, providing a phased easing space for the global energy market. However, the US still reserves the right to restart the strike. Coupled with Iran's previous clear statement of counter - attack, the geopolitical risk has not completely subsided [2] 3.3 Gold and Silver Data - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was 4503.30 US dollars/ounce, up 0.63%; the trading volume was 238,000 lots, up 15.09%; the open interest was 411,400 lots, down 0.62%; the inventory was 994 tons, down 0.22% [5] - **LBMA Gold**: The closing price was 4564.55 US dollars/ounce, up 3.42%; the closing price of the active contract was 995.98 yuan/gram, down 1.77%; the trading volume was 438,400 lots, down 17.17% [5] - **SHFE Gold**: The open interest was 282,200 lots, down 3.97%; the inventory was 106.74 tons, unchanged; the settled funds were 44.969 billion yuan, out - flowing 5.67% [5] - **AuT + D**: The trading volume was 85.69 tons, up 6.55%; the open interest was 238.91 tons, down 1.86% [5] - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was 71.45 US dollars/ounce, unchanged; the open interest was 114,800 lots, down 0.61%; the inventory was 10,228 tons, down 0.79% [5] - **LBMA Silver**: The closing price was 73.17 US dollars/ounce, up 4.57%; the closing price of the active contract was 17,472.00 yuan/kilogram, down 3.53%; the trading volume was 1,206,200 lots, down 19.40% [5] - **SHFE Silver**: The open interest was 449,100 lots, up 0.92%; the inventory was 370.30 tons, down 1.54%; the settled funds were 21.186 billion yuan, down 2.64% [5] - **AgT + D**: The trading volume was 429.70 tons, down 5.95%; the open interest was 2,872.224 tons, down 0.63% [5] 3.4 ETF Holdings - **Gold ETFs**: The holding of SPDR in the US was 1052.42 tons; iShare in the US held 474.31 tons (unchanged); GBS in the UK held 30.30 tons (unchanged); PHAU in the UK held 53.21 tons (unchanged); GOLD in the UK held 29.71 tons (unchanged); SGBS in Switzerland held 34.92 tons, down 0.34% [68] - **Silver ETFs**: The closing price of SLV in the US was 60.77 US dollars, down 6.81%; the holding was 15,409.46 tons, down 0.67%; the settled funds were 3.3323 billion US dollars, down 8.66%; the trading volume was 55.5349 million shares, up 45.51%. ETPMAG in Australia held 482.96 tons, down 0.03%; PSLV in Canada held 6747.37 tons (unchanged); CEF in Canada held 1583.02 tons (unchanged) [68]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the documents 2. Core View of the Report - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium in the long - term, but in the short - term, the prices are more volatile due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. As of March 3, 2026, platinum and palladium have fallen 21.4% and 19.7% respectively from their January highs, and have also significantly retreated from their February 24 repair highs. The main short - term disturbance is Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Despite short - term uncertainties, in the long - run, factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit, the global central bank's gold - buying spree, and the supply - demand situation in the platinum and palladium industries support the prices [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Platinum Futures**: For contracts pt2606, pt2608, and pt2610, the current prices are 505.85, 504.20, and 500.55 respectively. The price increases are 26.95, 25.55, and 25.70, with corresponding increases of 5.63%, 5.34%, and 5.41%. The trading volumes are 8038, 258, and 117 respectively, and the open interests are all 13033 [1]. - **Palladium Futures**: For contracts pd2606, pd2608, and pd2610, the current prices are 368.55, 368.15, and 368.35 respectively. The price increases are 17.80, 19.85, and 17.80, with corresponding increases of 5.07%, 5.70%, and 5.08%. The trading volumes are 5453, 65, and 72 respectively, and the open interests are all 4522 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Platinum Spot**: The Shanghai platinum price increased by 34.26 to 509.42, with an increase of 0.072%. The London platinum price increased by 58.00 to 1950.00, with an increase of 0.031%. The prices of Zhou Dafu and Lao Fengxiang platinum are 783.00 and 850.00 respectively, with the former increasing by 54.00 (0.074%) and the latter remaining unchanged [1]. - **Palladium Spot**: The Chinese palladium price increased by 13.00 to 361.00, with an increase of 0.037%. The Russian palladium price decreased by 5.79 to 3769.05, with a decrease of 0.002% [1]. 3.3 Inventory - **Platinum Inventory**: The NYMEX platinum inventory and registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 579,273.64 ounces and 308,556.37 ounces respectively. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum trading volume increased by 24.0 kilograms to 68.00 kilograms, and the trading value increased by 1371.30 ten - thousand yuan to 3462.82 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - **Palladium Inventory**: The NYMEX palladium inventory and registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 248,373.69 ounces and 211,887.35 ounces respectively [1]. 3.4 Related Derivatives and Indexes - **Related Indexes**: The US dollar index increased by 0.40 to 99.63, the S&P 500 index increased by 35.53 to 6591.90, the US Treasury yield decreased by 0.06 to 4.33, the Nasdaq index increased by 167.94 to 21929.83, the Dow Jones index increased by 305.43 to 46429.49, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate remained unchanged at 6.89 [1]. - **Related Derivatives**: For Shanghai gold contracts 2604, 2606, and 2608, the prices increased by 33.76, 34.16, and 34.40 respectively. For Shanghai silver contracts 2604, 2606, and 2608, the prices increased by 979, 1026, and 1057 respectively [1]. 3.5 Macroeconomic News - **Fed Policy**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, with a 11 - 1 vote. Fed Governor Milan opposed the decision, advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The dot - plot shows only one rate cut in 2026 and 2027 each, indicating a more conservative rate - cut path [2]. - **Geopolitical Event**: The military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran have disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz [2]. - **Fed Chair Nomination**: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, but the nomination needs Senate approval. Some senators oppose the nomination [2]. - **China's Central Bank Policy**: The People's Bank of China held a 2026 payment and settlement work conference, aiming to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system and strengthening regulatory measures [3].