Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market experienced a decline in most commodities during the night session on October 10, with notable decreases in precious metals and energy sectors [1] Group 1: Commodity Performance - Gold futures (沪金) fell by 0.5% [1] - Silver futures (沪银) decreased by 0.21% [1] - Copper futures (沪铜) dropped by 0.36% [1] - Iron ore (铁矿) saw a slight increase of 0.63% [1] - Coking coal (焦煤) declined by 0.17% [1] - Glass futures (玻璃) experienced a significant drop of 2.37% [1] - Crude oil (原油) prices fell by 2.3% [1]

早盘收盘，国内期货主力合约跌多涨少。红枣涨超2%，花生、焦炭、工业硅涨超1%，铁矿石、焦煤涨 近1%；跌幅方面，生猪跌超2%，沪银、菜粕、鸡蛋、集运欧线、沪金、尿素、纯碱跌超1%。 ...

上一个交易日贵金属价格继续上涨，COMEX黄金期货跌1.95%报3991.10美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货跌2.73% 报47.66美元/盎司;沪金上涨4.5%，报913.76元/克，沪银上涨2.3%，报11169元/千克。 美联储"三把手"威廉姆斯表示，支持今年进一步降息，并不认为经济处于衰退边缘。 美元指数周四攀升0.6%，至接近两个月高点的水平，这代表以美元计价的黄金对海外买家来说，变得相对昂 贵。根据美国存托信托公司(DTCC)数据，本周每日看涨美元的结构性交易量都超过看跌头寸，显示市场信心 迅速转向支持美元。 以色列和哈马斯周四签署停火协议，这是美国总统特朗普提倡结束加沙战争的第一阶段。哈马斯表示，已达成 协议以结束加沙战争，确保以色列撤军，并实现人质与囚犯的交换。 美国政府关门难解，参院七次否决拨款案，特朗普威胁砍民主党项目，共和党领袖否认要动"大招"。 据媒体援引一位知情的美国劳工部官员称，美国劳工统计局(BLS)已召回部分员工，以准备发布关键的9月CPI 通胀报告。 美联储理事巴尔强调通胀风险、称降息需谨慎。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous gains, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence recently, while sectors such as nuclear fusion, chips, and non - ferrous metals have emerged. Although short - term index fluctuations have increased, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips due to policy support for the capital market [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is likely to remain volatile under the intertwined bull - bear background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - With the weakening of the US dollar credit and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals. However, there is a significant risk of price correction in the short term [9]. - For most metals, factors such as supply - demand changes, cost fluctuations, and market sentiment affect their prices. For example, copper is supported by supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations; aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong; zinc is expected to be strong in the short term; and nickel may have a short - term downward exploration but is supported in the long term [12][14][16][18]. - For black building materials, although the current real - world demand for steel is weak, the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. The price of iron ore may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [31][33][35]. - For energy and chemical products, rubber is recommended to go long on dips; for crude oil, wait and see in the short term; methanol and urea can be considered for short - term long positions after a decline; and for some chemical products like PVC and ethylene glycol, the supply - demand situation is weak, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [53][55][56][58]. - For agricultural products, the prices of live pigs and eggs are expected to be weak in the short term; soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile; oils are expected to be strong; sugar is recommended to be shorted on rallies; and cotton is likely to be weak in the short term [77][79][82][84][87][89]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market News**: The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have imposed export controls on certain items; some foreign entities have been included in the unreliable entity list; some securities firms have adjusted the margin conversion ratios of certain stocks; and the price of spot gold remains high, with some banks adjusting their related businesses [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the previous continuous rise, the high - flying sectors have shown divergence, and the short - term index fluctuations have increased. However, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have changed; the daily average sales revenue of the national consumption - related industries during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays has increased year - on - year; and export controls have been imposed on some medium - heavy rare earth - related items [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 6120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 14513 billion yuan on the day [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The manufacturing PMI has rebounded, but the follow - up social financing and money growth may be under pressure. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver have declined, while the prices of COMEX gold and silver have increased. The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data, and the Fed's meeting minutes show differences in the outlook for interest rates [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals, but pay attention to short - term price corrections [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market News**: After the National Day, the copper price continued to be strong. The LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory also increased. The spot import loss expanded, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations support the copper price, but the short - term upward pace may slow down [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: On the first day after the National Day, non - ferrous metals generally strengthened. The LME aluminum price rose, and the domestic aluminum inventory increased. The market atmosphere was warm, but the trade situation was still volatile [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and strong [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and the LME zinc price fell. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the zinc export window opened [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai zinc is expected to be strong in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market News**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and the LME lead price also rose. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai lead is expected to be in a wide - range low - level shock in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market News**: The nickel price rose significantly. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price was stable, and the MHP coefficient price increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term nickel price may decline, but it is supported in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long on dips [18]. Tin - **Market News**: The tin price was strong. The supply was expected to increase slightly, and the demand in the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors was still weak [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to be high - level volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The carbonate lithium price was stable. The social inventory decreased, and a company obtained mining rights [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand mismatch has led to a decrease in inventory. Pay attention to the supply and demand situation and the market atmosphere [22]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index rose. The domestic and overseas prices changed, and the import window opened [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The alumina market is expected to be volatile. Wait and see for the macro - mood resonance [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The stainless steel price rose. The raw material prices were stable, and the social inventory decreased slightly [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel price is expected to be range - bound. Pay attention to the RKAB approval progress [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The cast aluminum alloy price rose. The trading volume increased, and the inventory increased slightly [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the delivery pressure of the near - term contract is large, and the upside space is limited [28]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil remained unchanged [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current real - world demand for steel is weak, but the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. Pay attention to policy signals [31]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The iron ore price rose. The overseas shipment decreased, and the domestic arrival increased. The steel mill's profit rate continued to decline [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The iron ore price may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Pay attention to the "Silver October" performance after restocking [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: The glass price rose, and the inventory increased. The soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased [34][36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [35][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The manganese silicon price rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon price fell slightly. The prices are in a shock range [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may first decline and then rise. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [39][40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: The industrial silicon price was stable, and the polysilicon price fell. The supply and demand of industrial silicon changed little, and the polysilicon inventory was limited [42][44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and polysilicon may improve if the leading enterprises conduct maintenance [43][46]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market News**: The rubber price stabilized. The tire production rate decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The spot price changed [48][50][52]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Go long on dips and partially build a hedging position [53]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The crude oil price fell, and the inventories of related products changed. The US EIA data showed inventory changes [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and verify the OPEC's export - price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market News**: The methanol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider short - term long positions after a decline [56]. Urea - **Market News**: The urea price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider long positions at a low price [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The pure benzene price was stable, and the styrene price fell. The supply and demand changed, and the inventory increased [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene price may stop falling due to the seasonal peak season [60]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC market is bearish in the medium term. Consider short positions [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The ethylene glycol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [65]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was affected by maintenance, and the demand was stable [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market News**: The para - xylene price rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was affected by PTA maintenance [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the terminal and PTA valuation [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The PE price fell, and the inventory decreased. The supply was limited, and the demand was expected to increase [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may rise in the long term [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The PP price fell, and the inventory was high. The supply was large, and the demand was weak [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and the inventory pressure is high [74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market News**: The live pig price continued to fall. The slaughtering and sales situation was not good [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The live pig price is expected to be weak in the short term. Short the near - term contract and conduct reverse hedging [77]. Eggs - **Market News**: The egg price generally fell. The supply was greater than the demand, and the market confidence was low [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price is expected to be weak in the short term. Wait for the bottom - building [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: The CBOT soybean price fell slightly. The domestic soybean meal price was stable, and the import cost was affected by multiple factors [80][81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is large. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [82]. Oils - **Market News**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel plan. The domestic oil price rose, and the inventory may decrease [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is expected to be strong. Go long on dips [84]. Sugar - **Market News**: The sugar price rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production data was released, and the port waiting quantity increased [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The sugar price is expected to be bearish in the long term. Short on rallies in the fourth quarter [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: The cotton price rebounded slightly. The spot price fell, and the acquisition price was lower than last year [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price is likely to be weak in the short term. There is cost support at the bottom [89].

10月9日，现货白银加速上涨，历史首次突破50美元/盎司，大涨超4%；沪银夜盘开盘大涨超2%，最高 触及11485元/吨，刷新历史新高。 值得注意的是，今年以来现货白银累计涨幅达到75%，表现比黄金还要耀眼，白银兼具贵金属和工业金 属的特性是推动其价格飙升的主要动力，而金银比的下降则是另一个重要信号。 白银首次突破50美元大关 在黄金创纪录涨势的推动下，白银也大放异彩，走出了几十年来最好的表现。 继黄金后，白银也迎来了历史性时刻。 数据显示，全球白银供应已连续第五年出现缺口，库存不断下降。与此同时，光伏、新能源汽车、半导 体等行业对白银的消耗量持续增加，令白银在贵金属中脱颖而出。 Gavekal Research的创始合伙人兼首席执行官Louis-Vincent Gave表示，黄金的牛市现在已经蔓延到白 银、铂金和钯金，甚至似乎正在渗入铜。一旦贵金属牛市开始，通常需要美联储采取鹰派立场或者美元 大幅升值等因素出现，牛市才会停止。目前来看，这些发展似乎都不太可能。 与黄金类似，资金也在大幅流入白银市场。摩根士丹利在一份报告中表示，今年实物支持的白银交易所 交易基金(ETF)也出现了资金流入激增的情况，并且由于1 ...

人民财讯10月9日电，国内期货夜盘开盘多数上涨，沪金涨0.56%，沪银涨1.92%，沪铜涨1.73%，沪锌 涨逾1%，沪锡涨1.55%，铁矿涨超1%，焦煤涨2.01%，玻璃涨0.74%，原油涨0.49%。 ...

摘要10月9日，国内贵金属期货全线飘红，截止目前，沪金主力报价为914.14元/克，涨幅4.80%，沪银 主力报价为11159.00元/千克，涨幅2.16%；国际贵金属期涨跌不一，COMEX黄金报价4046.00元/盎司， 跌幅0.36%，COMEX白银报价48.23美元/盎司，跌幅0.44%。 10月9日，国内贵金属期货全线飘红，截止目前，沪金主力报价为914.14元/克，涨幅4.80%，沪银主力 报价为11159.00元/千克，涨幅2.16%；国际贵金属期涨跌不一，COMEX黄金报价4046.00元/盎司，跌幅 0.36%，COMEX白银报价48.23美元/盎司，跌幅0.44%。 今日贵金属期货价格行情（2025年10月9日） 【消息面】 美国政府停摆影响是多方面的。一是重要经济数据发布中断。非农、CPI等关键经济数据延迟发布，将 无法对美联储官员的货币政策作出有效指引，但政府停摆对经济潜在的影响，反而强化市场对降息的预 期，美联储10月降息概率超90%。二是，美元信用削弱。政府停摆意味着美国的财政和行政运作出现停 滞，可能导致国家债务违约的风险增加，且如果美国政府无法及时恢复运作，可能会引发国际市场对美 ...

| 序号 | 合约名称 | 局新 | 现手 | 25.07 | 英价 | 原(后) 1 | 光星 | 能 | 成交 | 济陆 | 持位置 | 日常仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 护金2512 M | 914.32 | 2 | 914.26 | 914.30 | 4.82% | 1 | 1 | 196126 42.02 | | 251108 | -5768 | | 2 | 国际铜2511 M | 77200 | 1 | 77160 | 77200 | 4.23% | 1 | 6 | 8561 | 3130 | 5370 | 457 | | 3 | 护铜2511 M | 86750 | 2 | 86750 | 86760 | 4.19% | 5 | 5 | 137816 | 3490 | 221715 | 7856 | | 4 | 信桐油2601 M | 9570 | 8 | 9570 | 9572 | 4.13% | 5 | 172 | 509596 | 380 | ...

Group 1 - Domestic commodity futures showed mixed performance, with the main contract for Shanghai gold leading the gains [1] - As of the market close at 15:00, Shanghai gold, international copper, and Shanghai copper rose over 4%, while soybean oil, Shanghai nickel, and Shanghai silver increased over 2% [1] - Factors supporting the long-term upward trend of gold include the reconstruction of the global monetary credit system, de-dollarization trends, continuous gold purchases by central banks, and structural supply-demand imbalances [1] Group 2 - The ongoing "shutdown" crisis in the U.S. government has increased market uncertainty regarding economic direction and Federal Reserve policy, leading to heightened investment risk and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economy has raised expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, contributing to a downward trend in real interest rates [2] - Given the support from macroeconomic slowdown, monetary policy easing, and geopolitical factors, precious metal prices are expected to maintain a bullish outlook in the long term [2]

美联储会议纪要显示，美联储官员在上月批准今年首次降息时，对未来应将利率降至何种水平存在分歧。官员们普遍同 意，就业增长近期放缓的迹象超过了对顽固通胀的担忧，因此在上月降息25个基点。根据纪要，大多数官员认为"在今 年剩余时间里进一步放松政策可能是合适的"。 今日周四(10月9日)欧盘时段，白银期货目前交投于11210一线上方，今日开盘于11200元/千克，截至发稿，白银期货暂报 11265元/千克，上涨3.10%，最高触及11309元/千克，最低下探11082元/千克，目前来看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走 势。 【要闻速递】 同时美联储点阵图显示，到年底联邦基金利率可能降至3.6%，暗示今年可能再降息两次。CME FedWatch工具显示，市 场对本月及12月降息的预期仍非常坚定，本月政策会议降息概率接近确定，12月降息概率约78.6%。 投资者将重点关注鲍威尔在华盛顿社区银行会议的讲话，以获取美联储未来利率走向信号。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银长期看多，仍具备持续震荡拉升态势，节后波动可能较大，建议控制仓位，持多为主，区间关注11130-11300一线， 大区间在11000-11400之间。 但纪要也指 ...