Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In the short - term, the market may enter an oscillation and volatility - reduction cycle. The overall market atmosphere is under certain suppression, but in the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bull market is expected to continue. Different industries have their own supply - demand situations and influencing factors, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed based on these [39][45]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: The annualized basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter are presented. For example, IF's ratios are 4.70%/2.97%/5.48%/4.74% [2]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict, US tariff policy, RMB exchange rate, and AI business, the stock index is expected to have a relatively strong performance [3]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: The closing prices and changes of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts on Thursday are provided. There are also news about Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the stance of the Bank of Japan. The central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 79.5 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy View**: Although inflation recovery has potential suppression on the bond market, and the endogenous power of economic recovery is not stable, the capital side is expected to remain loose. The bond market is expected to continue to oscillate [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver have declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are reported. The precious metal prices are in horizontal consolidation, with support from Trump's tariff plan and the US - Iran nuclear negotiation, and resistance from the Fed's officials' statements and the expectation of stable US short - term interest rates [7]. - **Strategy View**: The precious metal prices are expected to remain in high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference ranges of 11,300 - 12,000 yuan/gram for Shanghai gold and 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/kilogram for Shanghai silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Affected by the US - Iran negotiation and other factors, copper prices are in oscillatory adjustment. LME inventory has increased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories have also changed. The spot discount in the East China region has expanded [11]. - **Strategy View**: The US tariff policy provides emotional support, but the refined copper supply is relatively excessive. Short - term copper prices are expected to be oscillatory, with reference ranges of 101,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 13,100 - 13,400 US dollars/ton for LME copper [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices have adjusted. LME inventory has decreased, and domestic inventory has increased. The spot discount in the East China region has narrowed [13]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price support is strong. The reference ranges are 23,400 - 23,900 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum and 3,100 - 3,170 US dollars/ton for LME aluminum [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices have declined. The social inventory of zinc ingots in China has increased, and the downstream enterprise start - up rate is average [15][16]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc industry in China shows a weak trend. Zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices. The zinc ore TC has stopped falling and stabilized [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices have increased. Both domestic and foreign inventories have risen rapidly, and the industrial situation is weak [17]. - **Strategy View**: The strategic stockpiling of battery enterprises may support the lead price in the short - term. It is necessary to observe the start - up of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices have declined. The prices of nickel ore are stable, and the price of nickel iron has increased [18]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of nickel is shrinking, and nickel prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference ranges of 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai nickel and 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton for LME nickel [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices are in oscillatory operation. The inventory has decreased, and the supply and demand are marginally loose [20]. - **Strategy View**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference ranges of 380,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton for domestic tin and 48,000 - 53,000 US dollars/ton for LME tin [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate has increased. The production has increased, and the inventory has decreased [22]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by the export ban, the short - term spot shortage is expected to continue. It is necessary to be cautious about the increase of selling orders. The reference range for the 2605 contract is 164,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index has declined. The spot price in Shandong has increased, and the overseas price is stable. The inventory has increased [24]. - **Strategy View**: The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton for the AO2605 contract [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices have increased. The raw material prices have changed, and the inventory has increased [27]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure will be relieved, and the price has a strong bottom support. It is recommended to be bullish, with a reference range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has increased. The inventory has changed, and the trading volume has increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: The cost has support, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have declined. The inventory and trading volume have changed [32]. - **Strategy View**: The black series is in a bottom - game stage. It is expected to oscillate within a range with a weak center of gravity in the short - term. It is necessary to focus on the demand recovery and policy trends [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices have declined. Some steel enterprises in North China will implement emission reduction measures during important meetings [34]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas supply has recovered, and the demand is okay. The price is expected to oscillate weakly and stably. It is necessary to pay attention to domestic terminal demand and policy guidance [35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke have declined. The spot prices have different changes, and the basis is positive [36]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, the upward catalysis of coking coal is weak. It may face a callback risk in March - May, but it may rise in the second half of 2026 [39]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices have declined, and the inventory has increased. Soda ash prices are stable, and the inventory has increased [40][42]. - **Strategy View**: Glass is expected to oscillate, with a reference range of 1,025 - 1,100 yuan/ton. Soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly and stably, with a reference range of 1,140 - 1,200 yuan/ton [41][43]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices have increased, and ferrosilicon prices have also risen slightly [44]. - **Strategy View**: The future market is mainly affected by the black market and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore supply and "dual - carbon" policies [45][46]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices have declined, and polysilicon prices have also decreased [48][50]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weak. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices are in oscillatory operation. The start - up rates of tire enterprises are low, and the inventory has increased [53][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to trade according to the short - term trend of the disk and set stop - losses. It is also recommended to go long on NR and short on RU2609 [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices have declined, and the inventory data of related products have changed [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices have changed, and the MTO profit has increased [59]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices have changed, and the basis is negative [61]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short urea due to the expected negative fundamentals [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices and basis of pure benzene and styrene have changed. The supply and demand sides have different performances [63]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits gradually as the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices have declined. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak [66]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply - demand situation is poor, and the fundamentals are weak [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. There is a risk of rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [70]. - **Strategy View**: The inventory cycle is about to end. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices have declined. The load and inventory have changed [72]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil in the medium - term [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory has changed [74]. - **Strategy View**: The PE valuation has room to decline, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory pressure is high [76]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [78]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices have different changes. The actual supply pressure has been reduced [80]. - **Strategy View**: The spot price is expected to be weak, but there may be support for the far - month contracts [81]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are mainly stable. The supply is normal, and the market digestion speed is okay [82]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term spot price decline is limited. It is recommended to wait and see or trade short - term [83]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The export and production data of soybeans in the US and Brazil are provided. The domestic soybean inventory has changed [84]. - **Strategy View**: The protein meal price may be bottoming out due to the increase in import costs [86]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The production, export, and inventory data of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia are provided. The domestic oil inventory has increased [87]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term soybean oil price is stronger. It is recommended to buy when the oil prices stop falling at low levels [88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The production data of sugar in India, Brazil, and Thailand are provided. The domestic import data are also given [89][90]. - **Strategy View**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the international sugar market. The domestic sugar price is suppressed by high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The US cotton export data and the domestic cotton inventory data are provided [92]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to buy on dips if the downstream start - up rate after the Spring Festival is good [93].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，2月27日，上期所原油期货夜盘收涨0.74%，报489.80元人民币/桶。沪金夜盘收跌0.25%， 沪银收跌2.93%。 ...

上期所原油 期货主力合约夜盘收涨0.74%，报489.80元人民币/桶。沪金夜盘收跌0.25%，沪银收跌 2.93%。 ...

锂矿概念股爆发，个股掀起涨停潮，此前津巴布韦矿业及矿产发展部发布紧急声明，宣布即刻起暂停所有原矿和锂精矿的出口。 2月26日，A股震荡下跌，三大股指早盘集体走低，创业板跌近1%，盐湖提锂、锂矿概念股爆发，半导体、光伏等板块调整。港股震荡回落，恒 科指跌近1%，科网股多数下跌。 债市方面，国债期货集体下跌。商品方面，国内商品期货多数上涨，碳酸锂继续大涨，现涨超5%。汇市方面，离岸人民币升破6.84关口，最高触 及6.8384。核心市场走势： | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | | 4137.80 | -9.43 | -0.23% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | | 14424.91 | -50.96 | -0.35% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | | 3316.56 | -38.26 | -1.14% | | 000300 | 沪深300 | | 4718.69 | -17.20 | -0.36% | | 000016 | FJE20 | | 3036 ...

2026年02月26日 申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确 定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | sunxm@sywgqh.com.cn | | 021-50585921 | | | | | | pt2606 | pt2608 | pt2610 | pd2606 | pd2608 | pd2610 | | | 现价 | 586.00 | 579.70 | 576.50 | 457.95 | 454.75 | 455.00 | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 551.85 | 544.00 | 540.30 | 438.45 | 435.00 | 435.25 | | 货 | 涨跌 | 38.50 | 40.40 | 37.70 | 19.70 | 19.35 | 21.30 ...

每经AI快讯，上期所原油期货2604合约夜盘收跌0.63%，报486.50元人民币/桶。沪金夜盘收涨0.65%， 沪银收涨4%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 02 月 25 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：再战前高 2 月 25 日，权益市场放量上涨。万得全 A上涨 1.05%，全天成交额 2.48 万亿元，较昨日（2 月 24 日）放量 2627 亿元。港股方面，恒生指数上涨 0.66%，恒生科技下跌 0.19%。南向资金净流出 40.57 亿港元，其中腾讯控 股和美团分别净流入 8.18 亿港元和 6.78 亿港元，而中远海能则净流出 3.58 亿港元。 指数面临前高的考验。万得全 A 放量上涨，触及 1 月 14 日和 1 月 26 日前高，且这两天的成交额分别为 4 万 亿元和 3.28 万亿元，意味着有较多的筹码在此时进场，随着行情回落遭遇亏损。今日早盘大涨后，这些筹码成功 扭亏，部分资金或选择兑现，形成午后指数回落的局面。往后看，若强势突破前高，则确认反弹趋势；若行情回 落，意味着市场短期内或仍将震荡。 资源品&PCB 及其上游，仍是主要线索。资源品方面，工业有色继续受益于涨价逻辑， Wind 稀土和铜产业指 数分别上涨 8.45%和 3.67%。同时，磷化工指数上涨 6 ...

每经AI快讯，2月25日，国内期货夜盘开盘多数上涨，沪金涨0.2%，沪银涨2.26%，沪铜涨0.42%，沪镍 跌0.37%，铁矿涨0.87%，焦煤涨0.67%，原油涨0.16%，橡胶跌0.15%。 每经AI快讯，2月25日，国内期货夜盘开盘多数上涨，沪金涨0.2%，沪银涨2.26%，沪铜涨0.42%，沪镍 跌0.37%，铁矿涨0.87%，焦煤涨0.67%，原油涨0.16%，橡胶跌0.15%。 ...

来源：上海有色网 金属市场： 截至日间收盘，内盘基本金属普涨，仅沪锌唯一下跌，跌幅达0.04%。沪锡以7.62%的涨幅领涨，沪镍 涨2.32%。其余金属涨幅均在1%以内。氧化铝主连涨0.77%，铸造铝主连涨1.25%。 此外，碳酸锂主连涨3.4%，工业硅主连涨0.3%，多晶硅主连跌0.76%。欧线集运主连跌4.76%报 1278.6。 黑色系方面集体飘红，且涨幅均在1%以上，铁矿涨1.42%，不锈钢涨1.24%，螺纹钢涨1.72%，热卷涨 1.19%。双焦方面，焦煤、焦炭均涨2.32%。 外盘方面，截至15:04分，外盘基本金属普涨，伦锡以5.27%的涨幅领涨外盘基本金属，伦镍涨1%。其 余金属涨幅均在1%以内。 【上海市住房城乡建设管理委等五部门印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产政策的通知》 】据上海 住房城乡建设管理公众号消息：为更好满足居民刚性和改善性住房需求，促进房地产市场平稳健康发 展，2月25日，市住房城乡建设管理委、市房屋管理局、市财政局、市税务局、市公积金管理中心等五 部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产政策的通知》（以下简称《通知》），自2026年2月26 日起施行。一、进一步调减住房 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 2月25日午后，现货黄金白银价格急速拉升，现货黄金向上触及5200美元/盎司，日内涨幅1.4%，现货白银站上90美元/盎司，日内涨幅扩大至4.5%。 沪金沪银同步跟涨，其中沪金涨0.19%，沪银涨5.53%。 国投白银LOF（161226）节后迎来强势反弹，截至25日13时55分，涨幅扩大至9.93%，再度逼近涨停。昨日该基金复牌后高开高走，最终以涨停价收盘。 据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普24日在国会发表国情咨文演讲时威胁伊朗，称美国永远不会允许伊朗拥有核武器。 谈到伊朗导弹，特朗普称："他们（伊朗）已经研制出能够威胁欧洲和我们海外基地的导弹，并且正在研制很快能打到美国的导弹。" 分析人士指出，推动此轮银价上涨的因素错综复杂。宏观层面，美国近期公布的经济数据显示出"滞胀"迹象——四季度GDP增速大幅低于预期，而核心 PCE物价指数则意外上行，这使得实际利率趋于下行，对不生息的贵金属资产形成支撑。此外，地缘风险的再度升温，特别是美伊局势的紧张化，也极大 地激发了市场的避险情绪，进一步推高了金银价格。 瑞银认为金价有望进一步上涨，预计未来几 ...