[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 11 月 28 日 策略点评 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 一、市场行情分析 1）股票市场：延续缩量反弹 市场延续缩量反弹。今日市场延续反弹，中小盘成长股表现尤为突出。上证指数低 开高走，全天围绕 3870 点震荡，尾盘收报 3888.60 点，涨幅 0.34%；深证成指高 开后震荡上行，收报 12984.08 点，涨幅 0.85%，突破 5 日均线压力；创业板指收 报 3052.59 点，涨幅 0.70%；科创 50 指数涨 1.25%；微盘指数上涨 1.42%，领涨 各类指数。全市场成交额 1.6 万亿，较前一日缩量 7.3%，连续三个交易日缩量； 市场共计 4122 只个股上涨、1187 只个股下跌，显示整体赚钱效应良好。 图 1：市场延续缩量反弹 资料来源：Wi ...

每经AI快讯，11月28日，国内商品期货夜盘开盘多数上涨，沪金涨0.14%，沪银涨1.41%，沪铜涨 0.48%，铁矿涨0.13%，沪锡涨1.66%，焦煤涨0.19%，玻璃涨0.38%，原油涨0.22%。 ...

来源：上海有色网 金属市场： 截至日间收盘，内盘基本金属普涨，仅沪锌唯一下跌，跌幅达0.22%。沪铅及沪锡一同涨逾1%，沪铅涨 1.09%，沪锡涨1.53%，其余金属涨幅均在1%以内。氧化铝主连跌0.29%，铸造铝主连涨0.1%。 此外，碳酸锂主连跌0.62%，多晶硅主连涨0.66%，工业硅主连涨0.05%。欧线集运主连大涨6.74%报 1471.9。 黑色系方面涨跌互现，不锈钢跌0.32%，铁矿跌0.19%。螺纹涨0.71%，热卷涨0.27%。双焦方面，焦煤 跌0.79%，焦炭跌1.99%。 外盘方面，截至15:06分，外盘基本金属集体上涨，伦锡以1.73%的涨幅领涨，其余金属涨幅均在1%以 内。 贵金属方面，截至15:06分，COMEX黄金涨0.45%，COMEX白银涨1.95%，盘中最高冲至54.65美元/盎 司，续刷其上市以来的历史新高。国内方面，沪金涨0.76%，沪银涨3.21%，沪银盘中最高触及12755元/ 千克，四连涨后同样续刷其上市以来的历史新高。 截至今日15:06分行情 【北京：重点发展AI电视、AI手机、AI眼镜等新型智能终端产品和服务】《北京市促进"人工智能+视 听"产业高质量发展行 ...

1. 据界面，当地时间11月26日，美国贸易代表办公室宣布，将把针对中国技术转让和知识产权问题、依据301条款调查所设立 的关税的豁免延长至2026年11月10日。现有豁免条款原定于今年的11月29日到期。 2. 国家发展改革委会同有关部门及相关行业协会召开会议，会议指出，目前部分行业价格无序竞争问题仍然突出，一些企业 对规范价格竞争行为的要求落实不到位，甚至依然存在扰乱市场价格秩序的行为。国家发展改革委将会同有关部门持续推进相 关工作，治理企业价格无序竞争，维护良好市场价格秩序，助力高质量发展。 3. 国家统计局：1—10月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额59502.9亿元，同比增长1.9%。10月份，规模以上工业企业 利润同比下降5.5%。 4. 市场监管总局召开2025年第五次企业公平竞争座谈会强调：总局将进一步加强重点领域反垄断执法，加强公平竞争审查和 经营者集中审查，坚决破除阻碍全国统一大市场建设的卡点堵点，营造市场化、法治化、国际化一流营商环境，充分激发各类 经营主体发展活力。 早盘速递 2025/11/28 热点资讯 板块持仓 (500,000) (400,000) (300,000) (2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - term outlook for precious metals is that they may experience wide - range oscillations, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Precious Metals Market Conditions - COMEX gold futures fell 0.3% to $4189.6 per ounce, COMEX silver futures rose 0.41% to $53.825 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 0.02% at 946.90 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 1.29% to 12490 yuan per kilogram [1]. Important Information - As of November 27, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, remained unchanged at 1045.43 tons from the previous trading day. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, also remained unchanged at 15582.33 tons [1]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 86.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 13.1%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 67.3%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 9.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 23.1% [1]. - The European Central Bank's meeting minutes showed that the Governing Council's assessment of the inflation outlook remained largely unchanged; the outlook was still unclear, and this uncertainty could also be a reason to keep interest rates unchanged. Most members believed that the inflation outlook faced two - way risks [1]. Market Logic - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 216,000, slightly lower than the estimated 225,000, but the number of continued jobless claims in the previous week rose slightly to 1.96 million, indicating increasing difficulty for the unemployed to find re - employment. - The US core PPI in September increased 2.6% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.7%; retail sales in September increased 0.2% month - on - month, lower than the market expectation of 0.4%. ADP weekly data showed that private enterprises on average lost 13,500 jobs per week in the past four weeks, more than the 2500 jobs lost per week shown in the previous update a week ago. - The latest weak economic data has kept the probability of a Fed rate cut in December above 80%. On November 27, the US dollar index fluctuated widely horizontally, closing at 99.55. Overnight, COMEX gold fluctuated horizontally, and COMEX silver rose slightly. Precious metals may oscillate slightly more in the short term [1]. Trading Strategy - Precious metals may experience wide - range oscillations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [2].

Domestic Market Performance - The equity market experienced fluctuations on November 27, with the Wind All A Index declining by 0.01% and a total trading volume of 1.72 trillion yuan, a decrease of 74 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - The ChiNext Index faced selling pressure after breaking through the 3100 point mark, confirming previous reports that it was nearing a peak and facing profit-taking pressure [2][3] - The overall market remains in a volatile state, with the Wind All A Index showing a pattern of rising and falling over three consecutive days, indicating insufficient confidence among investors [2] Index and Industry Recovery - The recovery of major indices since the significant drop on November 21 shows varied performance, with the CSI 2000 index down only 0.52%, while the Shanghai Composite and CSI 500 indices fell by 1.20% and 1.57%, respectively [3] - The technology sector has been the main focus of the rebound, with the STAR 200 index recovering its losses from November 21, showing an overall increase of 1.41% [3] - The media and communication sectors saw increases of 3.75% and 3.67%, driven by narratives surrounding AI applications and optical communications [3] Investment Opportunities - Potential rebound opportunities include the domestic electronic industry, which has not yet shown significant recovery, and the power equipment sector, which may attract funds as market sentiment shifts [3] - The automation equipment sector, particularly robotics, has only just begun to recover from previous declines and may present further investment opportunities [3] - If market sentiment weakens, the underperforming dividend sector could benefit from risk-averse behavior among investors [3] Hong Kong Market Insights - Southbound capital has shown a cautious attitude, with a shift from continuous net inflows to slight net outflows, indicating a wait-and-see approach among investors [4] - The consumer sector in Hong Kong has seen gains, potentially linked to upcoming policy discussions, while the A-share consumer policy debate has yet to gain momentum [4] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market has returned to a weak oscillation pattern, with institutions remaining cautious and continuing to sell bonds [4] - The yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds rose by 1.0 and 0.3 basis points, respectively, reflecting ongoing market pressures [4][6] - The overall cautious sentiment in the bond market is expected to persist in the short term, with investors awaiting new information to shift market expectations [6] Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity market has shown stable performance with notable structural highlights, particularly in precious metals like platinum and palladium, which saw significant price increases on their first trading day [7] - Precious metals have continued to attract investment, with silver outperforming gold, and industrial metals showing mild recovery [7][8] - The glass market has experienced a five-day rally, attributed to low valuations and supply contraction expectations [9] Fund Flows and Market Sentiment - The commodity market experienced a slight outflow of 0.5 billion yuan, but precious metals have seen consistent inflows, indicating strong investor interest [8] - The market is beginning to price in risks associated with the Federal Reserve's independence, supporting a mild increase in precious metal prices [8] - The silver inventory has dropped nearly 50% since mid-October, leading to a "short squeeze" scenario that has driven up silver prices [8]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - Precious metals are expected to experience short - term wide - range fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose 0.45% to $4196.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.13% to $53.76 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 0.37% at 949.34 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 2.73% to 12450 yuan per kilogram [1]. 3.2 Important Information - As of November 26, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, were 1045.43 tons, an increase of 4.57 tons from the previous trading day. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, remained unchanged from the previous day at 15582.33 tons [1]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 84.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 15.1%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 66.4%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 11.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 22.6% [1]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 216,000, the lowest since the week of April 12, 2025. The forecast was 225,000, and the previous value was revised from 220,000 to 222,000. Although the number of initial jobless claims was stable, the number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week climbed slightly to 1.96 million, indicating that it is becoming more difficult for the unemployed to find new jobs [1]. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that economic activity changed little during the more than one - month period covering the government shutdown. Tariff pressures squeezed corporate profits, AI suppressed some recruitment demand, and retailers reported that the government shutdown had a negative impact on consumption [1]. 3.3 Market Logic - The US core PPI in September increased 2.6% year - on - year, less than the expected 2.7% growth; the US retail sales in September increased 0.2% month - on - month, lower than the market expectation of 0.4%. ADP weekly data showed that private enterprises reduced an average of 13,500 jobs per week in the past four weeks, more than the 2,500 jobs lost per week shown in the previous update a week ago. The latest weak economic data has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in December. On November 26, the US dollar index fell and closed at 99.59. Overnight, COMEX gold fluctuated horizontally, while COMEX silver rose sharply. Precious metals may fluctuate slightly more in the short term [1].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，11月27日，上期所原油期货2501合约夜盘收涨0.79%，报446.30元人民币/桶。沪金夜盘收 涨0.37%，沪银收涨2.73%。 ...

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures night market opened with most contracts rising, indicating a positive trend in the market [1] - Gold futures increased by 0.13%, silver futures rose by 1.08%, and copper futures saw a rise of 0.59%, reflecting strong demand in precious and industrial metals [1] - Aluminum futures increased by 0.72%, coking coal futures rose by 1.07%, glass futures surged by 1.46%, and rubber futures gained 0.56%, showcasing a broad-based increase across various commodities [1]

Hot News - Since the second term of President Trump, the Chinese and US heads of state have maintained regular exchanges. The recent call, initiated by the US, had a positive, friendly, and constructive atmosphere, which is important for the stable development of Sino-US relations [2] - Maersk's CEO is encouraged by the peace process in Gaza. Navigation freedom in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait has been established, and trade routes have returned to normal. The Suez Canal is the preferred passage for Maersk and its customers [2] - A US official said that the Ukrainian delegation has reached an agreement on the terms of a possible peace deal with the US, with some minor details remaining [2] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan believes that the economy needs significant interest rate cuts and hopes employment data will convince other Fed members to do so. The Fed should quickly lower interest rates to a neutral level [2] - US private-sector employers cut an average of 13,500 jobs per week in the past four weeks, an acceleration from the previous week's data showing a loss of 2,500 jobs per week [2] Key Focus - The commodities to focus on are lithium carbonate, corn, coking coal, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai gold [3] Night Session Performance - Non-metallic building materials rose 3.16%, precious metals 29.30%, oilseeds 9.90%, non-ferrous metals 22.26%, soft commodities 2.87%, coal, coking, and steel ore 12.79%, energy 3.06%, chemicals 11.08%, grains 1.42%, and agricultural and sideline products 4.16% [3] Plate Holdings - The chart shows the five-day changes in commodity futures plate holdings from November 19 to November 25, 2025 [4] Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.87% daily, -2.14% monthly, and 15.46% annually; the Hang Seng Index rose 0.69% daily, -0.05% monthly, and 29.09% annually [5] - In the fixed-income category, the 10-year Treasury futures fell 0.08% daily, -0.42% monthly, and -0.65% annually [5] - In the commodity category, the CRB Commodity Index fell 0.54% daily, -2.69% monthly, and -0.79% annually; London spot gold fell 0.07% daily, rose 3.23% monthly, and 57.46% annually [5] - In other categories, the US Dollar Index fell 0.39% daily, rose 0.08% monthly, and fell 7.99% annually; the CBOE Volatility Index was flat daily, rose 17.66% monthly, and 18.27% annually [5] Trends of Major Commodities - The report presents the trends of major commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and more [6]