1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The absolute price of lead is cautiously bullish [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market is intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors, and the main contract of Shanghai lead is oscillating weakly. The supply side shows the resumption of production of primary lead, production cuts due to losses in secondary lead, and an increase in the arrival of imported lead. On the demand side, the operating rate of lead - acid batteries has rebounded, but the recovery of terminal consumption is weak, and social inventories have continued to accumulate to 76,500 tons. Short - term delivery pressure and import impacts are suppressing lead prices, but the cost support of secondary lead is gradually emerging. After the negative factors are exhausted, attention should be paid to the possibility of a price stop - fall. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Spot Market - On March 18, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$45.31 per ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price changed by 125 yuan per ton to 16,550 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium and discount changed by 0 yuan per ton to -15.00 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by 100 yuan per ton to 16,600 yuan per ton. The SMM Henan lead spot changed by 125 yuan per ton to 16,575 yuan per ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium and discount changed by 100 yuan per ton to 16,575 yuan per ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan per ton to -25 yuan per ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by 0 yuan per ton to 9,875 yuan per ton. The price of waste white shells changed by 0 yuan per ton to 9,975 yuan per ton. The price of waste black shells changed by 0 yuan per ton to 10,200 yuan per ton. [1] 3.1.2 Futures Market - On March 18, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,635 yuan per ton and closed at 16,645 yuan per ton, a change of 45 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 54,361 lots, a change of -13,486 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 40,136 lots, a change of -11,026 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price oscillated, with the highest point reaching 16,785 yuan per ton and the lowest point reaching 16,595 yuan per ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,590 yuan per ton and closed at 16,585 yuan per ton, a 0.39% decrease from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. According to SMM, the SMM 1 lead price fell by 50 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The Shanghai lead futures oscillated weakly during the day. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan per ton to the SHFE 2506 contract. In Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan per ton to the SMM 1 lead average price had difficulty in trading, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan per ton to the SHFE 2506 contract. In Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan per ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for ex - factory sales. In Guangdong, holders' ex - factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan per ton to the SMM 1 lead average price. As lead prices continued to weaken, downstream buyers maintained rigid demand procurement, and the enthusiasm for stocking up at low prices was poor. The overall spot market was sluggish. [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - On March 18, 2026, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots was 78,000 tons, a change of 1,500 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 18, the LME lead inventory was 284,375 tons, with no change compared with the previous trading day. [3] 3.2 Strategy - In terms of absolute price, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish. Traders can buy on dips in the range below 16,500 yuan per ton and conduct sell - hedging close to 16,850 yuan per ton. However, if it is observed that the non - ferrous metal sector is collectively de - stocking in the near future, it is recommended to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The overall supply growth of the Shanghai lead market is limited, demand growth faces certain resistance, and inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, so the probability of continued consolidation increases. Today, the Shanghai lead price remained volatile with little movement on the disk. Attention should be paid to the support level of 16,980 [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,220 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,014.5 dollars/ton, down 12.5 dollars. The 12 - 01 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai lead open interest was 82,766 lots, down 4,281 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 3,236 lots, up 573 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 0 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory was 42,790 tons, up 4,208 tons; the LME lead inventory was 264,475 tons, down 325 tons [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network was 17,125 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead from Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market was 17,310 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract was - 95 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 27.39 dollars/ton, up 0.82 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 16,970 yuan, up 124 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 17,160 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead was 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 71.37%, up 1.83 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.87 tons, up 0.04 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead was 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons; the monthly export volume of refined lead was 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons. The average price of waste batteries in the market was 9,873.21 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 45,696 units, down 3,984 units; the Shenwan industry index of batteries was 2,060.82 points, down 58.5 points. The monthly automobile production was 322.7 tons, up 47.46 tons; the monthly new energy vehicle production was 158 tons, up 24.7 tons [2] Industry News - There are major developments in the Russia - Ukraine situation, with a secret 28 - point peace - talk framework being discussed. The US authorities cancelled the October non - farm payroll report, and the November report is rescheduled to December 16. The Fed may further shrink its balance sheet. There are differences among Fed officials on interest rate cuts. The US trade deficit in August narrowed significantly. The Trump administration is considering suspending semiconductor tariffs, and the White House is blocking a bill to restrict AI chip exports. The US Attorney General will release the Epstein case file in 30 days [2] View Summary - On the supply side, the supply of domestic lead concentrate for primary lead remains tight, while the production of recycled lead is expected to increase. On the demand side, the demand for automotive lead - acid batteries weakens in November, but the overall operating level will gradually recover. The high Shanghai - London ratio of lead ingots and tariff issues suppress the growth of demand. The inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and the Shanghai lead market is likely to continue to consolidate [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of lead may increase but is difficult to rise significantly. On the supply side, the production growth of primary lead is limited due to many smelter overhauls, and the production increase of recycled lead is also restricted by environmental protection and raw - material supply. On the demand side, although the traditional consumption season has increased the demand for lead, the export of lead - acid batteries is under pressure, and downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing, so the growth of demand is also restricted. The lead ingot social inventory is at a relatively low level, but it may change with the increase of imported lead and potential growth of recycled lead production. The Shanghai lead is expected to maintain a volatile trend with limited upside, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,660 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quotation is 2,067 US dollars/ton, up 10.5 US dollars. The spread between the December - January contracts of Shanghai lead is - 10 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai lead open interest is 127,374 lots, up 8,336 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 947 lots, down 3,596 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 24,686 tons, up 917 tons. The SHFE inventory is 38,582 tons, up 2,583 tons; the LME lead inventory is 226,725 tons, up 24,525 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead from Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 17,325 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,510 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract is - 335 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 20.89 US dollars/ton, down 8.59 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,846 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The production capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 69.54%, down 3.45 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.83 tons, down 0.03 tons. The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 90 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the global lead ore output is 383.3 kilotons, up 3.4 kilotons; the lead ore import volume is 15.06 tons, up 1.58 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of refined lead is 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons; the export volume of refined lead is 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons. The export volume of batteries is 45,696 units, down 3,984 units. The average price of waste batteries is 10,021.43 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, with 2% antimony) is 19,575 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The Shenwan third - level industry index of batteries and other batteries is 2,242.68 points, up 67.94 points. The monthly automobile production is 322.7 tons, up 47.46 tons; the monthly new - energy vehicle production is 158 tons, up 24.7 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The US private sector reduced an average of 11,250 jobs per week in the four weeks ending October 25; Goldman Sachs estimated that the US non - farm payrolls decreased by about 50,000 in October. The US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill, and the House of Representatives will vote on it at 5 am Beijing time on Thursday. Russia is willing to participate in the preparation if the US restarts the proposal for a summit. India cut Russian crude oil orders in December and increased US crude oil purchases. Switzerland and the US may reach a 15% tariff agreement on Thursday or Friday. There are rifts within the UK ruling party, and the health minister is accused of plotting to oust the prime minister. Turkey seeks to sentence the mayor of Istanbul to hundreds of years in prison, and the Turkish benchmark stock index fell 3% [2]. 3.7 View Summary - On the supply side, the production growth of primary lead is limited due to overhauls, and the production increase of recycled lead is restricted by environmental protection and raw - material supply. On the demand side, although it is the traditional consumption season, the export of lead - acid batteries is under pressure, and downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing. The lead ingot social inventory is at a relatively low level, but may change with the increase of imported lead and potential growth of recycled lead production. The Shanghai lead is expected to maintain a volatile trend with limited upside, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [2][3].