1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The lead price is expected to mainly show a fluctuating trend [4][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情复盘 - **期货价格**: Last week, the price of the main contract PB2507 of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated between around 16,530 yuan/ton and 16,778 yuan/ton. The LME lead futures contract price fluctuated between 1959 - 1994 US dollars/ton [8][12] 3.2现货分析 - As of June 6, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 16,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 16,525 yuan/ton, 16,585 yuan/ton, and 16,525 yuan/ton respectively. On June 6, the 1 lead premium remained at a discount of about - 190 yuan/ton [15] 3.3供需情况 - As of May 30, 2025, the average processing fees (factory prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 500 yuan/metal ton, 500 yuan/metal ton, and 1,100 yuan/metal ton respectively. As of April 30, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 664,000 tons, a decrease of 73,000 tons from the previous month and a 1% year - on - year decrease. From a seasonal perspective, the current output is at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years [21] 3.4库存情况 - As of June 6, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange refined lead inventory was 47,936 tons, an increase of 1,436 tons from the previous week. As of June 5, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 282,650 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 16.47% [27] 3.5基本面分析 - Multiple senior Fed officials indicated that inflation pressure is still higher than the risk brought by the weak employment market, suggesting that the Fed may keep interest rates unchanged for a longer time. The US economic and policy uncertainty is high, and tariff hikes bring cost and price increase pressure. The lead discount continues to widen. The lead processing fee is gradually recovering but still at a low level. Lead production has decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, while the import volume of refined lead has increased. The Shanghai lead inventory has slightly recovered and is at a low level in recent years, while the LME lead inventory continues to rise and is at a high level in recent years [3][33] 3.6后市展望 - The lead price is expected to mainly show a fluctuating trend [4][34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of Shanghai lead has declined, which provides some support for prices. However, the price of Shanghai lead continues to decline under the influence of weakening demand. Although the inventory has decreased, the overseas inventory remains high, putting significant pressure on lead prices. Attention should be paid to the new impacts brought by changes in tariff policies. Technically, it is currently in a triangular consolidation structure, with a slight rebound today. Short - term long positions can be considered, while medium - to long - term short positions are recommended on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,670 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quotation is 1,981 dollars/ton, up 17 dollars. The 07 - 08 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is 0 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The Shanghai lead open interest is 90,698 lots, up 4,827 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 1,338 lots, up 236 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 40,316 tons, up 897 tons. The SHFE inventory is 46,500 tons, down 1,928 tons; the LME lead inventory is 284,150 tons, down 2,025 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,425 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,580 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract is - 245 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 22.17 dollars/ton, up 2.09 dollars. The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 15,704 yuan, down 241 yuan. The price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,420 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead is - 18,700 tons, up 7,100 tons. The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 51.28%, down 3.13 percentage points. The monthly output of recycled lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead is 70.57%, down 3.31 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 33,900 tons, down 400 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 30 dollars/kiloton, down 10 dollars. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons. The global lead ore output is 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons. The monthly import volume of lead ore is 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the monthly export volume of refined lead is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average market price of waste batteries is 9,946.43 yuan/ton, down 23.21 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41.45 million units, down 425,000 units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) is 20,175 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 1,655.35 points, down 1.98 points. The monthly automobile output is 2.604 million vehicles, down 440,600 vehicles. The monthly new - energy vehicle output is 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles [2]. 3.6 Industry News - **Tariff News**: The Trump administration raised the steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, effective on the 4th. The US put forward a "long and demanding" requirement list to Vietnam in tariff negotiations. The EU did not receive a letter from the US asking for the "best trade offer". The Brazilian president said that if an agreement on tariffs with the US cannot be reached, Brazil will resort to the WTO or take reciprocal measures. The India - EU free trade agreement is accelerating, and nearly half of the issues have reached a consensus [2]. - **Fed News**: Logan said to focus on achieving the 2% inflation target instead of trying to make up for past inflation shortfalls. Bostic still thinks there may be one interest - rate cut this year [2]. - **US Economic Data**: The number of job openings in the US unexpectedly increased in April, and the monthly rate of factory orders in April recorded the largest decline since January 2024. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will revise the April employment report on Friday, and most indicators such as the unemployment rate are not affected [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of lead is affected by price uncertainty, resulting in a decline in the operating rate and output of primary lead smelters. The continuous decline in lead prices has expanded the loss pressure of secondary lead, and secondary lead smelters have been forced to lower their operating rates due to losses and raw material constraints. The demand side has weak support for lead prices, with overall light market transactions. Overseas inventories are decreasing, but the decline is small, and demand is significantly affected by tariffs. Domestic inventories are slightly increasing, and overseas prices are suppressing the upward space of domestic prices. The lead concentrate processing fee remains low, which has an impact on the resumption of production of secondary and primary lead. It is recommended to short on rallies [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract is 16,860 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quotation is 2,000 US dollars/ton, down 4.5 US dollars. The 06 - 07 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is - 25 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The Shanghai lead open interest is 68,494 lots, an increase of 835 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 1,875 lots, an increase of 3 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 49,921 tons, an increase of 502 tons. The SHFE inventory is 55,472 tons, an increase of 5,968 tons, and the LME lead inventory is 248,850 tons, a decrease of 1,825 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,725 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,890 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract is - 135 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 4.45 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.38 US dollars. The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,078 yuan, an increase of 149 yuan. The price of domestic secondary lead (≥98.5%) is 16,630 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS lead supply - demand balance is - 18,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons. The number of secondary lead production enterprises is 68, an increase of 3. The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead is 54.41%, an increase of 18.29 percentage points. The monthly output of secondary lead is 224,200 tons, a decrease of 67,500 tons. The average operating rate of primary lead is 74.66%, a decrease of 2.85 percentage points, and the weekly output of primary lead is 34,500 tons, a decrease of 800 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 20 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16,400 tons, an increase of 48,800 tons. The global lead ore output is 399,700 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons. The monthly lead ore import volume is 119,700 tons, an increase of 24,800 tons [2]. Industrial Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, a decrease of 1,021.76 tons. The domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 720 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, an increase of 223.33 tons. The average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,082.14 yuan/ton, down 46.43 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41.45 million, a decrease of 425,000. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,750 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan. The Shenwan industry index of batteries is 1,647.12 points, an increase of 2.61 points. The monthly automobile output is 3.0446 million, a decrease of 454,000. The monthly new - energy vehicle output is 1.647 million, an increase of 73,000 [2]. Industry News - In April 2025, the added value of the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 7.5% year - on - year, and the cumulative added value from January to April increased by 6.9% year - on - year. The output of ten non - ferrous metals in April was 6.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%; the cumulative output from January to April was 26.6 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.3%. Among them, the output of electrolytic aluminum in April was 3.75 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%; the output of electrolytic aluminum from January to April was 14.79 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.4%. Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 and adjusted the outlook from "negative" to "stable" [2].