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瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250910
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-10 09:00
| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16795 | -135 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 1977 | -15 | | | 09-10月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -35 | 25 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 89999 | 3876 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | -1759 | 1168 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 53689 | -131 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 66834 | 2162 LME铅库存(日,吨) | 239325 | -3800 | | | 上海有色网1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 16700 | -75 长江有色市场1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 16880 | -90 | | 现货市场 | 铅主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -95 | 60 LME铅升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -48.13 | -4.77 | | | 铅精矿50%-60%价格,济源(日) | ...
铅月报:需求偏弱,再生减产难抬铅价-20250905
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 13:27
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the lead industry showed a pattern of weak supply and demand. Upstream lead concentrates and waste lead - acid batteries were relatively scarce, limiting the smelting capacity of primary and secondary smelters. The continuous losses in secondary lead production led to production cuts in Anhui and other regions. However, downstream consumption was weaker than in previous years, with some battery enterprises reducing production during the high - temperature holidays and dealers having high finished - product inventories, resulting in a lackluster peak season. - Currently, there is a high expectation of a Fed rate cut, creating a positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metals sector. The marginal narrowing of lead ingot supply provides some support at the lower end. But if the commodity sentiment weakens and secondary smelting resumes, lead prices still have significant downward potential. [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: In August, the weighted Shanghai lead futures oscillated upwards, closing up 1.02% at 16,885 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 28% to 81,900 lots. The LME 3M lead oscillated upwards, closing up 1.37% at $1,997/ton, with positions increasing by 11% to 161,100 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,725 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,700 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan/ton. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,075 yuan/ton. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, domestic social inventories decreased slightly to 65,300 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 55,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 70 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 55 yuan/ton. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 254,600 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 59,200 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $43.09/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $66.9/ton. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio was 1.187, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 469.15 yuan/ton. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 38,000 tons, the factory inventory was 403,000 tons, equivalent to 25.5 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - $90/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 400 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 68.33%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 16,000 tons. At the secondary end, the waste lead inventory was 77,000 tons, the weekly production of secondary lead ingots was 31,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 18,000 tons. On the demand side, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 70.59%. [11] 3.2 Primary Supply - **Imports and Production**: In July 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 122,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 26.8% and a month - on - month change of 3.7%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 790,000 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 35.5%. The net import of silver concentrates in July was 154,200 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 14.0% and a month - on - month change of 22.3%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 1.003 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.4%. In July, China's lead concentrate production was 154,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 3.69% and a month - on - month change of 0.98%. From January to July, the total production of lead concentrates was 941,600 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.41%. The net import of lead - containing ores in July was 135,000 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 20.6% and a month - on - month change of 11.5%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 875,200 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 19.2%. - **Total Supply**: In July 2025, the total supply of lead concentrates in China was 289,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 10.9% and a month - on - month change of 5.6%. From January to July, the cumulative supply of lead concentrates was 1.8168 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.0%. In June 2025, the global lead ore production was 395,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.4% and a month - on - month change of 4.1%. From January to June, the total global lead ore production was 2.2565 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.6%. - **Inventory**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 38,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 403,000 tons, equivalent to 25.5 days. - **Smelting**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 68.33%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 16,000 tons. In July 2025, China's primary lead production was 321,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 4.79% and a month - on - month change of - 2.1%. From January to July, the total production of primary lead ingots was 2.2064 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 8.51%. [15][17][19] 3.3 Secondary Supply - **Raw Materials and Production**: At the secondary end, the waste lead inventory was 77,000 tons. The weekly production of secondary lead ingots was 31,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 18,000 tons. In July 2025, China's secondary lead production was 317,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 3.11% and a month - on - month change of 10.92%. From January to July, the total production of secondary lead ingots was 2.2516 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 0.37%. - **Imports and Total Supply**: In July 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 12,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 58.1% and a month - on - month change of 75.7%. From January to July, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 56,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 48.5%. In July, the total domestic lead ingot supply was 654,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.4% and a month - on - month change of 5.1%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply was 4.5165 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.7%. [31][33][35] 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Battery Demand**: On the demand side, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 70.59%. In July 2025, the apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 651,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.7% and a month - on - month change of 4.3%. From January to July, the cumulative apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 4.4784 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7%. - **Battery Exports**: In July 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 20.8925 million units, and the net export weight was 106,600 tons. The estimated net export of lead in batteries was 66,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 4.8% and a month - on - month change of 7.4%. From January to July, the total net export of lead in batteries was 432,900 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries decreased by 3.3% year - on - year. - **Inventory**: In July 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories decreased from 26 days to 21.8 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 39.9 days to 44.6 days. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly affected new - installation demand, the continuous growth in delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeout improved the new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automobile sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid start - up batteries with lithium - iron - phosphate start - up batteries, the high existing vehicle inventory and high replacement demand for lead - acid start - up batteries in existing vehicles support domestic lead ingot consumption. In the base - station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations driven by the development of communication technology has steadily increased the demand for lead - acid batteries. [40][43][45] 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Balance**: In July 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 2,400 tons. From January to July, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 38,100 tons. - **Overseas Balance**: In June 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a surplus of 2,000 tons. From January to June, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 35,900 tons. [63][66] 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, domestic social inventories decreased slightly to 65,300 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 55,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 70 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 55 yuan/ton. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 254,600 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 59,200 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $43.09/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $66.9/ton. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio was 1.187, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 469.15 yuan/ton. - **Position Analysis**: The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead decreased marginally. The investment funds in LME lead became net short, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. The position analysis provides a neutral indication. [71][74][80]
铅周报:供需两弱,铅价维持区间震荡-20250819
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:13
1. Report Title and Analyst Information - Report Title: Lead Weekly Report: Weak Supply and Demand, Lead Prices Maintain Range-bound Fluctuations [1] - Analyst: Chen Hansong - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03129697 - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0020351 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 3. Core Viewpoints - The lead market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with lead prices maintaining range-bound fluctuations. The consumption has not improved significantly, and the peak season performance is below expectations. Downstream enterprises only maintain rigid procurement, and the destocking of domestic social inventories is slow. However, the current domestic secondary lead smelters are all in a loss state, and the cost still provides some support for lead prices [4]. - Trading strategies include attempting high selling and low buying within the range for single-side trading, and temporarily observing for arbitrage and options trading [4]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Chapter 1: Market and Logic 4.1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - **Supply Side**: This week, the supply and demand of lead concentrates remained in a tight balance. The processing fee for domestic lead concentrates remained at 500 yuan/metal ton, and the weekly processing fee for imported lead concentrates decreased by 20 US dollars/dry ton to -80 US dollars/dry ton. The scrap battery market's scrap volume changed little, and smelting enterprises purchased on demand. The prices of lead-containing waste materials changed little compared to the previous period [4]. - **Smelting End**: The average operating rate of SMM's three-province primary lead smelters increased by 0.66% to 68.07% compared to last week. The SMM's four-province weekly operating rate of secondary lead was 40.97%, a decrease of 0.14% from last week. The operating conditions of secondary lead smelting enterprises were relatively stable compared to last week, and the production of some enterprises fluctuated slightly with the arrival of raw materials, resulting in a slight decline in the regional operating rate [4]. - **Consumption End**: The weekly comprehensive operating rate of SMM's five-province lead battery enterprises was 67.3%, an increase of 2.05% from last week. The operating rate of lead battery enterprises recovered this week because some enterprises that took high-temperature vacations last week resumed normal production, but some enterprises continued to take vacations, with a maximum vacation duration of 10 days. Therefore, the operating rate has not returned to the level of late July. Next week, as other enterprises' high-temperature vacations end, the weekly operating rate will continue to rise [4]. - **Inventory Data**: As of August 14, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions reached 71,700 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from August 11 and an increase of 600 tons from August 7. The LME inventory on August 14 decreased by 4,700 tons to 261,100 tons compared to August 8 [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single-side trading can attempt high selling and low buying within the range; temporarily observe for arbitrage and options trading [4]. 4.1.2 - 4.1.5 - The content mainly lists relevant data such as futures prices, price spreads, inventory data, and lead industry chain inventories, but specific data analysis is not provided in the given text [5][8][11][15] 4.2 Chapter 2: Raw Material End 4.2.1 - 4.2.2 Raw Material Supply - Primary - Lists data related to global and domestic lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, and domestic lead concentrate total supply and mine operating rates, but specific data analysis is not provided [21][25] 4.2.3 Raw Material Supply - Secondary - Mentions the prices of lead-containing waste materials and waste batteries, as well as the raw material inventory of secondary lead smelters, but specific data analysis is not provided [32] 4.3 Chapter 3: Smelting End 4.3.1 Global Refined Lead - Lists data on global refined lead balance, production, and demand, but specific data analysis is not provided [39] 4.3.2 Domestic Refined Lead Import and Export - Lists data on import and export profits and losses, import and export volumes, and net export volumes, but specific data analysis is not provided [46] 4.3.3 Primary Lead Smelting Enterprise Profits - Lists data on lead concentrate processing fees, smelting profits, sulfuric acid benefits, and silver benefits, but specific data analysis is not provided [48] 4.3.4 Primary Lead Supply - Lists data on the operating rate and production of primary lead smelting enterprises, as well as the production of electrolytic lead's main delivery brands, but specific data analysis is not provided [56] 4.3.5 - 4.3.6 Secondary Lead Supply - Lists data on the cost, profit, operating rate, and production of secondary lead enterprises, but specific data analysis is not provided [59][68] 4.3.7 Domestic Lead Ingot Supply - Lists data on domestic lead ingot total supply, primary lead production, secondary lead production, and refined lead net export, but specific data analysis is not provided [72] 4.4 Chapter 4: Demand End 4.4.1 Lead Batteries - Lists data on the operating rate of lead battery enterprises, dealers' finished product inventory, export and import volumes, and enterprises' finished product inventory, but specific data analysis is not provided [79] 4.4.2 Lead Alloys and Their Plates - Lists data on lead alloy prices, import and export of lead alloys and lead plates, but specific data analysis is not provided [82] 4.4.3 - 4.4.4 Automobiles, Motorcycles, Electricity, and Communications - Lists data on automobile production, export, production structure, motorcycle production, communication construction volume, and power engineering, but specific data analysis is not provided [85][88]
瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250807
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 09:49
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall supply of Shanghai lead remains flat this week, demand is gradually weakening, and with anti - involution speculation, it is advisable to place long positions on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,875 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote is 1,997 dollars/ton, up 21.5 dollars. - The spread between the 09 - 10 contracts of Shanghai lead is - 25 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the position of Shanghai lead is 104,515 lots, down 720 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 3,323 lots, down 114 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 58,656 tons, unchanged. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 63,283 tons, up 29 tons; the LME lead inventory is 268,600 tons, down 4,375 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,750 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,960 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. - The basis of the lead main contract is - 125 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 35.88 dollars/ton, up 6.04 dollars. - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 15,953 yuan, down 226 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,770 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead is - 18,700 tons, up 7,100 tons; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 34.15%, down 0.8%. - The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged; the monthly output of recycled lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons. - The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 77.49%, up 3.68%; the weekly output of primary lead is 34,100 tons, up 600 tons. - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 60 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons. - The global lead ore output is 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The monthly refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average price of the scrap battery market is 10,203.57 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41.45 million, down 425,000; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 19,975 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 1,827.23 points, up 55.7 points; the monthly automobile output is 2.8086 million, up 166,600. - The monthly new - energy vehicle output is 1.647 million, up 73,000 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Trump met with the CEOs of Bank of America and Citigroup at the White House to discuss "two - housing" related plans. - Regarding the US - Russia talks: ① Trump said the talks were fruitful, and there is a high possibility of a summit among Zelensky, Putin, and him. The three leaders may meet face - to - face as early as next week. ② Rubio said the decision on secondary sanctions against Russia will be made in the next 24 - 36 hours, and the Russian and US leaders may talk in a few days. - Regarding the Federal Reserve: ① Kashkari said it may be appropriate to cut interest rates in the short term, and two rate cuts this year are reasonable. ② Trump said the new Federal Reserve governor may be temporary, and the appointment will be announced in 2 - 3 days [2]. 3.7 View Summary - Primary lead smelters' operating rates increased due to the downward trend of lead prices, leading to an increase in production. Currently, the operating rate of primary lead is still stronger than that of recycled lead, and its by - product revenue is stable. However, as lead prices fluctuate, some primary lead smelters have adjusted their production decisions. - Recycled lead is currently affected by the tight supply of scrap battery raw materials, resulting in low confidence among smelters and tight overall supply. Due to cost inversion, the resumption of production is slow. - The price of 1 lead rebounded by 150 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton yesterday. The price of scrap electric batteries remained stable, with some enterprises in Jiangxi and Shanxi raising the price by 50 yuan/ton. - On the demand side, the lead - acid battery industry, the main consumer of lead, is approaching the traditional peak season. But in reality, spot transactions are flat, and downstream enterprises are generally waiting and watching. The slow inventory digestion of dealers has greatly suppressed the battery factories' enthusiasm for production. If the downstream continues to wait and watch this week, the demand for lead in the lead - acid battery industry will hardly improve significantly, and the overall demand will remain weak. - In terms of inventory, it has shown a slight upward trend recently, and the number of warehouse receipts has also increased, indicating a slowdown in overall demand. If the demand side still fails to pick up this week, domestic inventory may continue to accumulate, putting pressure on lead prices [2].
瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250702
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-02 09:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly, but the price of Shanghai lead continues to decline under the influence of weakening demand. Affected by the diminishing marginal effect of national subsidies on consumption, domestic inventories increase slightly, while overseas inventories start to accumulate again, putting significant pressure on lead prices. The overseas economic situation begins to weaken, and it is recommended to short on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,175 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.5%. The 08 - 09 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is 15 yuan/ton, and the position of Shanghai lead is 83,801 lots, an increase of 239 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is -179 lots, and the warehouse receipts are 46,439 tons, an increase of 50 tons. The LME 3 - month lead quotation is 2,039 US dollars/ton [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,925 yuan/ton and 17,140 yuan/ton respectively, with no change. The basis of the lead main contract is -75 yuan/ton, and the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is -250 US dollars/ton, a decline of 4.88% [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The supply and demand balance of lead in WBMS is 0.71 million tons. The number of production enterprises of recycled lead is 68, with no change. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is -16.33%, and the output of recycled lead is 22.42 million tons, a decline of 6.75%. The average operating rate of primary lead is 2.96%, and the output is 3.58 million tons, an increase of 0.01 million tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The lead ore import volume is 11.97 million tons, an increase of 2.48 million tons. The refined lead import volume is -1,021.76 tons. The domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 815.37 yuan/ton, with no change. The export volume of refined lead is 223.33 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries is 20,500 units, with no change. The output of automobiles is 264.2 million vehicles, an increase of 3.8%. The output of new energy vehicles is 7.3 million vehicles [3] 3.6 Industry News - US officials seek to narrow the scope of the trade agreement and strive to reach an agreement before July 9. Trump does not consider extending the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline and doubts about reaching an agreement with Japan. The US Senate passes the "big and beautiful" bill, and the House of Representatives is expected to vote this week [3]
瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250626
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-26 08:46
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report Core Views - The overall supply of SHFE lead is weak, which provides some support for prices, but the price is still under pressure due to weakening demand. The SHFE lead price is currently being suppressed by the annual line and is difficult to break through in the short - term. It is recommended to go short on rallies as the main strategy [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract is 17,225 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 60 yuan; the 07 - 08 contract spread is - 25 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the open interest is 80,736 lots, up 1,309 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 414 lots, down 582 lots; the warehouse receipts are 44,667 tons; the SHFE inventory is 51,291 tons, up 1,480 tons weekly; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,012 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars; the LME lead inventory is 277,375 tons, down 3,650 tons [2] 2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 lead spot price is 17,000 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 lead spot price is 17,200 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the basis of the lead main contract is - 225 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the LME lead (0 - 3) forward premium is - 24.13 dollars/ton, up 0.13 dollars [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead is 73.83%, up 4% weekly, and the weekly output is 3.57 tons, up 0.09 tons; the processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 40 dollars/thousand tons; the global lead ore output is 399.7 thousand tons, down 3.7 thousand tons monthly; the lead ore import volume is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons monthly [2] 4. Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons monthly; the refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons monthly; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 640 yuan/ton; the average price of waste batteries is 10,150 yuan/ton, up 30.36 yuan [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries is 41,450,000 units, down 425,000 units monthly; the average price of lead - antimony alloy for batteries is 20,550 yuan/ton; the automobile output is 264.2 million vehicles, up 3.8 million vehicles monthly; the new energy vehicle output is 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles monthly [2] 6. Industry News - Trump is considering appointing the next Fed chair in advance to weaken Powell's influence; Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut interest rates 7 times in 2026 starting from March, with the final rate dropping to 2.5% - 2.75%; Powell said tariffs may be a one - time impact, inflation expectations have declined slightly since April, and the Fed does not consider federal debt in monetary policy decisions; Collins said it's time to be patient and cautious, and a rate cut may occur later this year depending on tariff impacts [2] 7. Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, primary lead smelters' operating rates and output have declined due to lead price fluctuations; the loss pressure of secondary lead has decreased, but the subsequent production increase is difficult due to the traditional off - season and raw material constraints. On the demand side, market transactions are weak, and the support for lead prices is limited. Overseas inventory is accumulating again, and domestic inventory has a slight increase [2]
瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250624
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 10:50
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The overall supply of Shanghai lead is weakening, which provides some support for prices. However, the price of Shanghai lead continues to be under pressure and decline due to the weakening demand. The supply of primary lead refineries has decreased due to price fluctuations, and the subsequent production increase of recycled lead is difficult, with limited overall supply growth. The market trading is generally light, and the support for lead prices is relatively limited. Both charging pile and automobile demand are showing signs of a slowdown in growth rate. Overseas inventory is re - accumulating, and domestic inventory is slightly increasing. The decline in lead concentrate processing fees has a negative impact on the subsequent production of recycled and primary lead [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract is 16,955 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 1,995 dollars/ton, up 6.5 dollars. - The spread between the 07 - 08 contracts of Shanghai lead is - 10 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 79,427 lots, down 1,566 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 249 lots, down 43 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 0 tons, down 43,760 tons. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 51,291 tons, up 1,480 tons; the LME lead inventory is 281,025 tons, down 3,050 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,750 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,040 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. - The basis of the main lead contract is - 205 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 24.26 dollars/ton, up 4.23 dollars. - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,029 yuan, down 42 yuan; the domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,660 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan. - The production capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 34.95%, down 16.33 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead is 73.83%, up 4 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.57 tons, up 0.09 tons. - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 40 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the global lead mine output is 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons. - The monthly import volume of lead ore is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons; the lead supply - demand balance is 16.4 kilotons, up 48.8 kilotons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The monthly export volume of refined lead is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average price of waste batteries is 10,119.64 yuan/ton, up 3.57 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41,450 units, down 425 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The monthly output of automobiles is 264.2 tons, up 3.8 tons; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 164.7 tons, up 7.3 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Middle East situation: Iran carried out a missile attack on a US air base in Qatar. Trump thanked Iran for the prior notice, and later announced a cease - fire between Israel and Iran. Oil prices dropped more than 9%. - Macro - aspect: Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Waller said a rate cut might be possible as early as the July meeting, while Barkin thought there was no urgent reason for a rate cut, and Daly believed the economy was moving towards a situation where a rate cut might be needed [2].