Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report suggests that it is advisable to hold an empty position during the Spring Festival holiday. The Shanghai copper market has experienced significant fluctuations before the holiday, influenced by external market news and precious metal sentiment. Although the fundamentals may improve after the downstream resumes production, the market is easily affected by overseas news and external non - ferrous metals, leading to amplified volatility [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Before the Spring Festival, Shanghai copper was affected by external market news and precious metal sentiment, resulting in significant fluctuations. Subsequently, it gradually stabilized with a narrowing amplitude. The supply - demand logic before the holiday was a double - reduction situation. In January, the production was 1.57 million tons more than expected, and it is expected to return to normal in February. In February, the expected output of SMM China electrolytic copper will decrease by 3.58 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3.04%, and increase by 8.06% year - on - year. The news of expanding copper reserves has stimulated the market to rise, amplifying the expectation of tight supply. As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3188 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.00%. After the price correction, the downstream industry replenished raw materials, but as the price recovered and the Spring Festival approached, the downstream entered the holiday mode, and procurement and purchases decreased marginally. The price of Shanghai copper is supported by mine - end disturbances and domestic industrial anti - involution at the lower end and suppressed by weak pre - holiday transactions at the upper end [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and closed low, showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. - Spot: On February 11, 2026, the spot premium in East China was - 85 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 50 yuan/ton. The LME official price was 13,383 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 56 US dollars/ton [4]. 3.3 Supply Side - As of February 9, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 51.23 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 5.21 cents/pound [9]. 3.4 Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 177,200 tons, an increase of 8,282 tons from the previous period. As of February 9, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 91,100 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 192,100 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 592,500 short tons, an increase of 1,248 short tons from the previous period [13].

Report Overview - Report Date: June 20, 2025 - Report Title: [Guantong Research] Multiple Factors Intertwined, the Disk Tests the Resistance Level - Analyst: Wang Jing from Guantong Futures Research and Consulting Department Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - The Shanghai copper futures market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term due to multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions, inflation expectations, potential Fed rate cuts, supply shortages, and weakening demand [1]. Summary by Section Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures market opened low and moved lower in the afternoon. Trump will decide whether to attack Iran in two weeks, and although the conflict has eased, oil prices have risen, increasing inflation expectations. Trump has called on the Fed to cut rates for two consecutive days, and the market still expects two rate cuts this year. The Fed's rate cuts will affect the US dollar index and guide the price trend of the non - ferrous market. On the fundamental side, the port inventory of refined copper ore has decreased significantly this week, and copper imports have also declined. The cost of smelters has increased, intensifying the market's tight supply expectations. On the demand side, the downstream start - up rate has slowed down, the enthusiasm for purchasing has decreased, and the trading volume has weakened. The terminal wire and cable industry remains resilient, but the production schedule of the home appliance industry has shrunk, and the real estate industry has also dragged down the market [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures market opened low and moved higher, closing slightly lower at 77,990. The number of long positions of the top 20 futures companies decreased by 3,684 to 119,268 lots, and the number of short positions decreased by 3,770 to 106,544 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China is 105 yuan/ton, and in South China is 90 yuan/ton. On June 19, 2025, the LME official price was 9,609 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was 103 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply - side - As of June 13, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 43.91 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.40 US cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 33,900 tons, a decrease of 10,934 tons from the previous period. As of June 19, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 60,400 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 99,200 tons, a slight decrease of 4,125 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 199,900 short tons, an increase of 1,544 short tons from the previous period [8].