2月4日， 涨超7%，今年以来累计涨超58%，截至发稿，涨7.54%，报15.22港元，成交额2.24亿港元。 消息面上，据市场媒体报道，马士基周二表示，航运集团赫伯罗特与马士基将调整双方一项共享航线服务的航行路线，重新经由红海及苏伊士运河运输。据 了解，自2023年末开始，红海海域发生多起袭击事件，此后航运公司纷纷将船只改道非洲绕行。如今，各大航运企业正考虑重返这条连接亚欧的关键贸易通 道。与此同时，马士基在声明中指出，此次航线的红海及苏伊士运河通行将由海军力量提供安保支持。 中信证券表示，2026年合规市场需求结构性增长&低油价背景下，原油补库需求或为主要边际变量，该行预计年化VLCC运价中枢将落在60000美元/ 天-75000美元/天。周期上行兑现期下，VLCC运价弹性释放有望带动明年船队利润快速增长。短期看，季节性运输淡季临近，建议择机布局。 国泰海通认为，油运景气已持续上升四年，预计中远海能2025年盈利再创新高，且2026年首季业绩将同比大增。该行预计，未来数年油运景气有望继续胜于 预期，外贸油运盈利具充分弹性。 编辑/KOKO ...

中远海能（600026）(01138)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.58%，报14.85港元，成交额7522.98万港元。 中信证券表示，2026年合规市场需求结构性增长&低油价背景下，原油补库需求或为主要边际变量，该 行预计年化VLCC运价中枢将落在60000美元/天-75000美元/天。周期上行兑现期下，VLCC运价弹性释 放有望带动明年船队利润快速增长。短期看，季节性运输淡季临近，建议择机布局。国泰海通认为，油 运景气已持续上升四年，预计中远海能2025年盈利再创新高，且2026年首季业绩将同比大增。该行预 计，未来数年油运景气有望继续胜于预期，外贸油运盈利具充分弹性。 消息面上，据市场媒体报道，马士基周二表示，航运集团赫伯罗特与马士基将调整双方一项共享航线服 务的航行路线，重新经由红海及苏伊士运河运输。据了解，自2023年末开始，红海海域发生多起袭击事 件，此后航运公司纷纷将船只改道非洲绕行。如今，各大航运企业正考虑重返这条连接亚欧的关键贸易 通道。与此同时，马士基在声明中指出，此次航线的红海及苏伊士运河通行将由海军力量提供安保支 持。 ...

中信证券表示，2026年合规市场需求结构性增长&低油价背景下，原油补库需求或为主要边际变量，该 行预计年化VLCC运价中枢将落在60000美元/天-75000美元/天。周期上行兑现期下，VLCC运价弹性释 放有望带动明年船队利润快速增长。短期看，季节性运输淡季临近，建议择机布局。国泰海通认为，油 运景气已持续上升四年，预计中远海能2025年盈利再创新高，且2026年首季业绩将同比大增。该行预 计，未来数年油运景气有望继续胜于预期，外贸油运盈利具充分弹性。 消息面上，据市场媒体报道，马士基周二表示，航运集团赫伯罗特与马士基将调整双方一项共享航线服 务的航行路线，重新经由红海及苏伊士运河运输。据了解，自2023年末开始，红海海域发生多起袭击事 件，此后航运公司纷纷将船只改道非洲绕行。如今，各大航运企业正考虑重返这条连接亚欧的关键贸易 通道。与此同时，马士基在声明中指出，此次航线的红海及苏伊士运河通行将由海军力量提供安保支 持。 智通财经APP获悉，中远海能(01138)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.58%，报14.85港元，成交额7522.98万港 元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the oil tanker sector, indicating a favorable outlook for 2026 [1][2]. Core Insights - VLCC freight rates have continued to rise, reaching a peak of $126,000 per day on November 21, 2025, and slightly decreasing to $122,000 per day by November 28, 2025 [1][11]. - The report anticipates sustained demand for oil transportation due to global crude oil production increases and ongoing sanctions affecting non-compliant oil trade [2][22]. - The supply-side dynamics remain stable, with stricter environmental policies countering the limited new ship deliveries [25][26]. Industry Data Tracking - In the aviation sector, domestic passenger volume increased by 5.7% year-on-year, with an average ticket price rise of 3.0% [8][27]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 12.5% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in shipping rates [43][47]. - The report notes a slight decline in the transportation sector, with a 0.5% drop in the transportation index, underperforming against the CSI 300 index by 2.1 percentage points [62][63]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong earnings elasticity and dividend value, particularly in the oil and air transport sectors [3][4]. - Specific recommendations include COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and China Merchants Jinling Shipyard, highlighting their potential for growth in the current market environment [26][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [10]. Core Insights - The company, COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd., specializes in energy transportation with a fleet capacity of 20.5 million DWT, ranking first globally. Its main business segments include domestic oil transportation, LNG transportation, and foreign oil transportation, each characterized by licensing, project-based, and cyclical features. The domestic and LNG businesses provide stability, while the foreign oil transportation segment offers significant profit elasticity. The easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tightening sanctions on Iran are expected to boost oil transportation demand, creating a closed-loop cycle of market demand [2][5][8]. Summary by Sections Introduction: Geopolitical Restructuring of Oil Transportation - The past two years have seen high average oil transportation rates, but seasonal demand has been weak. Factors include insufficient actual demand and the impact of "shadow fleets" on oil transportation needs. The end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and increasing sanctions on Iran are anticipated to reshape the crude oil trade landscape, leading to a closed-loop cycle in oil transportation demand [5][16]. COSCO Shipping Energy: A Leader in Energy Logistics - COSCO Shipping Energy is a subsidiary of China COSCO Shipping Group, focusing on the transportation of oil and LNG. By January 2025, the company will have a fleet capacity of 20.5 million DWT, holding a 3.1% share of the global market. The company operates in three main business areas: foreign oil transportation, domestic oil transportation, and LNG transportation, balancing stability and elasticity in profitability [5][24][36]. Domestic Oil Transportation - The domestic oil transportation segment is strictly regulated by the Ministry of Transport, resulting in a balanced supply-demand dynamic and minimal price fluctuations. The company holds over 55% market share in domestic crude oil transportation, with a high COA cargo source ratio of over 95%, ensuring stable revenue. In the first three quarters of 2024, the segment recorded a gross profit of 1.13 billion, with a gross margin of 26% [6][42]. LNG Transportation - LNG transportation is characterized by long-term contracts, providing stable rental income. The company recorded a gross profit of 810 million in the first three quarters of 2024, with a gross margin of 50%. The LNG business is expected to continue growing due to fleet expansion [6][44]. Foreign Oil Transportation - The foreign oil transportation segment is cyclical, with demand driven by the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tightening sanctions on Iran. The report highlights that if the conflict ends, oil trade may revert to pre-conflict patterns, benefiting VLCCs. The presence of "shadow fleets" has created a separate market for Russian oil exports, impacting the compliance market. The report anticipates that the supply side will see a reduction in older vessels, alleviating supply concerns [7][54]. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to solidify its performance base through LNG and domestic oil transportation, while foreign oil transportation offers significant profit elasticity. The fleet expansion will further enhance performance stability, with projected profit growth of 55% over the next four years. The report estimates the company's net profit for 2024-2026 to be 3.96 billion, 5.66 billion, and 6.53 billion, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13.6x, 9.5x, and 8.3x [8][35].