百亿私募勤辰资产从资金行为角度补充称，年末机构兑现收益的防守性行为会引发市场波动。另一家百 亿私募淡水泉则提出更深层原因：市场定价正从估值驱动转向基本面驱动，这种风格切换本身就会带来 阶段性扰动。 上周，A股市场连续回调，个股下跌、人气回落的背后，是短期风险因素交织下的部分资金谨慎离场。 但在股票私募仓位创下近112周新高的背景下，一线私募机构展现出截然不同的应对姿态——有的选择 高仓位坚守，有的借助衍生品对冲风险，还有的悄然调仓，为下一轮行情蓄势。值得注意的是，经过上 周的快速回调和本周个股的集体反弹之后，私募业内的策略应对仍较为积极。 多因素共振下的调整探因 对于本轮市场调整，接受采访的多家私募机构认为是多因素共振的结果，但分析视角各有侧重。 止于至善创始人何理从宏观层面分析认为，内外因素共振是主因。具体包括外部环境变化、流动性预期 波动等。 涌津投资董事长谢小勇更关注资金面变化。他认为，海外流动性再收紧是重要诱因。10月末以来，美联 储态度转鹰，美元指数冲高导致外资资金出现短期净流出，对A股高估值科技板块形成直接压力。同 时，近期题材炒作监控趋严，两融与游资活跃度快速下降，短线资金被迫降杠杆，形成"多头 ...

Group 1 - The renovation and building materials sector experienced a slight decline, closing at 16,564.56 points with a drop of 1.22% [1] - Individual stocks within the sector showed varying degrees of decline, with Yong'an Forestry leading the drop at 8.10 CNY per share, down 10.00% [1] - Jingxue Energy closed at 25.82 CNY per share, down 7.72%, while ST Nachuan closed at 2.74 CNY per share, down 7.43% [1] Group 2 - Huaci Co. led the gains in the sector, closing at 20.61 CNY per share with an increase of 9.98% [1] - Youbang Ceiling closed at 32.67 CNY per share, up 7.22%, and Zhejiang Zhengte closed at 53.23 CNY per share, up 3.30% [1] Group 3 - Dongwu Securities highlighted the importance of technological self-reliance during the 14th Five-Year Plan, predicting accelerated development in domestic semiconductors, particularly in advanced processes [1] - The cleanroom engineering sector is expected to see high growth in orders, and AI applications are anticipated to develop rapidly in smart home appliances by 2026 due to improved model and computing power matching [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Views - Employment data shows improvement, and there are expectations for policy support [1] - The construction materials sector has shown resilience with a weekly increase of 0.97%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 2.05% [3] - The cement market is experiencing a slight recovery in demand, particularly in southern regions, while prices are expected to remain stable [5][10] - The glass market is under pressure with high inventory levels and weak demand, but medium-term supply-side adjustments are anticipated [41][43] - The fiberglass sector is expected to see improved profitability due to supply constraints and increasing demand from new applications [5] Summary by Sections 1. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - **Cement**: The national average price for high-standard cement is 352.3 RMB/ton, up 1.2 RMB/ton from last week but down 74.8 RMB/ton from the same period last year. The average cement inventory level is 69.8%, with an average shipment rate of 46.2% [11][18] - **Glass**: The average price for float glass is 1195.4 RMB/ton, down 1.9 RMB/ton from last week and down 258.4 RMB/ton year-on-year. Inventory levels are at 5962 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 54 million from last week [43][45] - **Fiberglass**: Prices for fiberglass remain stable, with a focus on high-end products. The market is expected to see improved profitability as supply constraints persist [5] 2. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from policy support and improving economic indicators, with a focus on companies involved in the export supply chain and home renovation [3][5] - The report highlights the importance of technological advancements and domestic semiconductor development, recommending companies in the cleanroom engineering sector [5] 3. Weekly Market Review and Sector Valuation - The construction materials sector has shown a positive trend compared to broader market indices, indicating potential for further growth [3] - The report suggests that the cement industry is at a historical low in terms of price-to-book ratios, presenting opportunities for investment as policies are expected to support recovery [5][10]

Core Viewpoint - The report from交银国际 predicts a slight decrease in revenue and an increase in gross margin for华虹半导体 in Q4 2025, with adjustments made to the revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027, while maintaining a buy rating with a target price of 91 HKD [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue was reported at 6.35 billion USD, meeting expectations, while gross margin was 13.5%, exceeding both the bank's forecast of 11.6% and the previous guidance of 12% [2] - The management indicated that the increase in gross margin is attributed to improved capacity utilization, cost reduction, and price increases [2] - For Q4 2025, the management guided revenue between 6.5 billion and 6.6 billion USD, with a gross margin forecast of 12% to 14% [2] Group 2: Capacity and Capital Expenditure - The estimated capacity for the 9A plant is approximately 34,000 wafers per month, with an expected increase of nearly 9,000 wafers per month [2] - Management anticipates that the 9A plant will reach a capacity of 60,000 to 65,000 wafers per month by mid-2026, with total investment for the plant amounting to 6.7 billion USD [2] - The company is expected to spend over 5 billion USD on the 9A plant construction by the end of 2025, with remaining expenditures of 1.3 to 1.5 billion USD in 2026 [2] Group 3: Pricing and Market Demand - The average selling price (ASP) increased by over 5% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, reflecting price hikes implemented since Q2 2025 [3] - Demand across various platforms has shown improvement, with significant growth in revenue from PMIC products, driven by AI server demand, increasing over 32% year-on-year [3] - The management is considering further price adjustments, although specific increases have not been quantified, and the strategy may focus on allocating capacity to high-demand platforms [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International predicts a revenue of $656 million and a gross margin of 13.6% for Huahong Semiconductor in Q4 2025, slightly down from previous estimates of $679 million and 12.1% [1] - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to $2.4 billion, $2.84 billion, and $3.26 billion respectively, with gross margins revised to 11.9%, 14.3%, and 16.8% [1] Group 1 - Q3 2025 revenue met expectations at $635 million, while gross margin exceeded expectations at 13.5% [2] - The management indicated that the increase in gross margin is attributed to improved capacity utilization, cost reduction, and price increases [2] - The guidance for Q4 2025 revenue is set between $650 million and $660 million, with a gross margin forecast of 12% to 14% [2] Group 2 - The capacity of the 9A plant is estimated at approximately 34,000 wafers per month, with plans to increase to 60,000 to 65,000 wafers per month by mid-2026 [2] - Total investment for the 9A plant is projected at $6.7 billion, with over $5 billion expected to be spent by the end of 2025 [2] - The company is expected to continue aggressive expansion, although no new investment plans for additional capacity beyond the 9A plant were disclosed [2] Group 3 - Average Selling Price (ASP) increased by over 5% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting price adjustments made since Q2 2025 [3] - Demand for various platforms has shown improvement year-on-year, particularly in embedded NVM and independent NVM products [3] - The company is likely to continue seeking price adjustments, with a focus on platforms experiencing strong demand, which may further support gross margin growth [3]

Group 1 - The ChiNext Index experienced fluctuations, with a peak increase of over 1% before closing down by 0.15%. Notable stocks included Feilihua, which rose by 5.46%, and Shenguan Medical, which increased by 4.60% [1] - The Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced plans to deepen reforms in the ChiNext market, aiming to establish listing standards that better align with the characteristics of emerging industries and innovative enterprises [1] - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasized accelerating high-level technological self-reliance and strengthening the national innovation system, which is expected to create unprecedented opportunities for the technology sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] Group 2 - According to Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, the adjustment in the technology growth sector has reached a sufficient level, with the profitability of growth styles reverting to early September levels. The relative value of growth styles has been restored [2] - The technology growth sector is anticipated to receive positive catalysts in the medium term, driven by increasing overseas AI capital expenditure and advancements in the domestic AI industry [2] - The ChiNext ETF closely tracks the ChiNext Index, which consists of 100 stocks with large market capitalization and good liquidity, reflecting the performance of the ChiNext market [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market has experienced significant fluctuations since September, with various sectors such as solid-state batteries, robotics, non-ferrous metals, and gaming emerging as new hotspots, indicating a notable acceleration in market rotation [1] - Funds heavily invested in AI computing have shown signs of portfolio adjustments, with some funds deviating from their holdings, suggesting a shift in strategy [2][3] - The performance of certain funds has diverged from their estimated returns, indicating potential reallocation of assets despite the underlying stocks' performance [2][3] Group 2 - Consumer funds have also exhibited signs of "cutting losses" and reallocating their portfolios, with some funds showing gains despite their major holdings declining [4][5] - Fund managers are increasingly focusing on emerging trends, such as the rise of domestic brands and innovative consumer products, indicating a shift in investment strategy towards sectors with higher growth potential [5][6] - The current market environment presents challenges for active management, as rapid sector rotation requires fund managers to adapt their strategies dynamically [7] Group 3 - There is an expectation of increased stock differentiation as market valuations rise, with a continued focus on AI computing-related assets, while new opportunities may arise in adjacent sectors like AR glasses and the Apple supply chain [8] - Fund managers are optimistic about the prospects of AI computing assets, particularly in relation to the global AI industry chain, while also recognizing the growing connection between AI and Chinese semiconductor companies [8]

Group 1 - The index is expected to experience sideways fluctuations with a slight upward trend, closing at 3828 points this week, aligning with previous expectations [3][14]. - High-end manufacturing remains a focus, with sectors such as electric equipment (3.9%), non-ferrous metals (3.5%), and electronics (3.5%) leading the gains this week, indicating continued optimism in this area despite potential risks of chasing high prices [4][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of low-position cyclical stocks with dividend appeal, highlighting a significant improvement in industrial profits, which shifted from a decline of 1.5% last month to a growth of 20.4% this month [7][18]. Group 2 - High-end manufacturing is projected to maintain relative advantages, with particular attention on segments like robotics and deep-sea economy, which are expected to benefit from future policy developments [5][16]. - The robotics sector is anticipated to see growth with the upcoming release of Optimus V3, although there are existing market discrepancies regarding its valuation and progress [5][16]. - The semiconductor sector continues to lead, with the domestic semiconductor index rising by 13.06% and semiconductor equipment index increasing by 11.22%, although a transition to a consolidation phase is expected after the short-term uptrend [5][16]. Group 3 - The deep-sea economy is viewed as a critical national strategy, with expectations for its performance to improve as policies are introduced, despite current market skepticism regarding its commercial value [6][17]. - The report identifies specific sectors such as power, coal, steel, chemicals, and agriculture as having potential for profit recovery, particularly in the context of low PPI and improving market conditions [7][18][19]. - The chemical industry is expected to see an improvement in supply-side dynamics, leading to enhanced profitability and dividend appeal for certain companies [19].

Core Insights - The semiconductor equipment ETF (159516) reached a historical high of 1.503, leading with over 6% increase and a net inflow exceeding 2 billion shares, with a total scale of over 4.6 billion, ranking first among similar products [1] - The ongoing US-China semiconductor competition has prompted China to initiate anti-dumping investigations on imported simulation chips from the US, which is catalyzing the development of domestic semiconductors [1] - Domestic computing power is experiencing changes from both supply and demand sides, with companies like Huawei's Ascend continuously iterating their domestic computing chips, providing support for the domestic AI industry [1] - Major domestic internet companies are gradually adapting to domestic chips, which is expected to sustain capital expenditure growth, thereby supporting the domestic computing power industry [1] - The semiconductor equipment ETF tracks the semiconductor materials and equipment index, focusing on the upstream materials and equipment sectors of the semiconductor industry, reflecting the overall performance of key enterprises in this sector [1] Industry Overview - The semiconductor materials and equipment index (931743) selects listed companies involved in semiconductor material supply and equipment manufacturing, serving as an important reference for investors to grasp opportunities in the semiconductor industry [1] - The ETF's scale as of September 23, 2025, is 46.43 billion, ranking first among six similar products [2]

Group 1 - Huawei has launched the Mate XTs foldable smartphone equipped with the Kirin 9020 chip, marking a significant breakthrough in domestic high-end chip manufacturing capabilities [1] - Shenzhen Xinkailai Semiconductor Equipment has over 10 billion yuan in orders, with clients including SMIC and Hua Hong Group [1] - Zhongwei Company has introduced six new semiconductor equipment products, including two etching devices and four thin-film deposition devices, enhancing its product lineup [1] Group 2 - The Chinese government has introduced supportive policies, including the "2025-2026 Action Plan for Stable Growth in the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry," focusing on advanced computing and new display technologies [1] - Semiconductor companies listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board reported strong performance in the first half of the year, with 120 companies achieving a total revenue of 160.043 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24% [1] - Wuxi's integrated circuit industry is projected to reach a scale output value of 251.2 billion yuan in 2024, ranking second nationwide, with notable companies like Zhonghuan and Wuxi Huahong emerging [1] Group 3 - Beneficial impacts on sectors include chip design, semiconductor equipment, semiconductor materials, and packaging testing, driven by the return of Kirin chips and substantial orders from Xinkailai [1] - Key companies identified include SMIC (688981), a leading domestic wafer foundry benefiting from capacity expansion [1] - New Micro Company (688012) is expected to enhance its market share through new product launches [2] - Tianyue Advanced (688234) is recognized as a leader in silicon carbide substrates [2] - Huahong Semiconductor (01347.HK) is noted for its advanced specialty processes [3] - Xinkailai's substantial equipment orders are expected to elevate its position in the industry chain [3] - TCL Technology (000100) has a well-rounded layout in semiconductor display and materials business [3]