近期，ASML首席执行官富凯公开表达了对"中国可能弃用其光刻机并实施稀土反制"的担忧。这番话从 一个光刻机巨头掌门人口中说出，分量不轻。 他的话暴露了中美科技博弈下一个残酷现实：曾经高高在上的光刻机巨头，如今也不得不低头正视中国 的反制能力。 ASML的焦虑从何而来？ 事情得从今年9月底说起。美国出台新规，用所谓"穿透规则"将制裁范围扩大到中国企业控股的子公 司。 荷兰政府紧随其后，于9月30日以冷战时期的老法规为由，冻结了中国闻泰科技旗下安世半导体的全球 资产，连中方CEO都被撤换，股权交由第三方托管。 这家被中资收购后起死回生的企业，刚刚交出年营收147亿的亮眼成绩单，还在荷兰当地缴纳巨额税 款。如此对待，理由牵强到让人难以信服。 荷兰之所以敢这么干，一是觉得有美国撑腰，二是自恃手握ASML这张王牌，以为能拿捏住中国半导体 产业的命脉。 但他们万万没想到，中国的反击来得如此之快、如此之准。 光刻机，离了稀土就是废铁？ ASML这下真的慌了。 你可能不知道，一台EUV光刻机单台就要使用10公斤以上的稀土磁体。磁悬浮工作台靠镝和铽保证纳 米级精度，镜头离不开含镧玻璃——这些材料全球90%以上都依赖中国供应。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Goldman Sachs indicates that China's domestic lithography machines can only produce chips with a 65nm process, lagging approximately 20 years behind international leader ASML [1][3]. Group 1: Current State of Chinese Semiconductor Technology - Although China can produce 7nm process chips, it likely relies on older DUV lithography machines from ASML, as China lacks the capability to manufacture such equipment [3]. - The latest High-NA EUV lithography machines from ASML are crucial for processes below 1.4nm and have begun delivery to major companies like Intel, TSMC, and Samsung [3]. - ASML's lithography machines have taken 20 years and $40 billion in R&D and capital expenditures to evolve from 65nm to 3nm and below [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - The global lithography machine market is dominated by ASML, which holds over 80% market share, and 100% of the advanced EUV lithography machine market [4]. - The relationship between lithography machines and chip manufacturing processes is direct, with specific machines designed for corresponding process nodes [4]. Group 3: Lithography Machine Classification - The classification of lithography machines includes various generations, with the current domestic machines being ArF type, suitable for 90nm process chips, indicating a significant technological gap compared to ASML [5]. - The table of lithography machine classifications shows the evolution from G-line machines for processes greater than 350nm to EUV machines for processes below 7nm [5].