7月10日至9月19日，中证银行下跌了12.85%，在这一日，中证银行下破年线。在随后的几天时间里， 中证银行指数连续震荡。节前2天连跌，国庆后首个交易日继续下跌，那么银行板块后市会如何呢？还 会不会再次起跳？ 首先要清楚，银行板块前期为何要调整？主要是7月以来，市场风险偏好明显提升导致的。作为上半年 申万31个行业中涨幅第3的银行，浮盈较大，又是典型红利板块，因此面临资金跷跷板，不足为奇。 但是从中证银行的成分股内部来看，还是有分化的，在7月10日-9月19日这个区间里，17只城商行股票 下跌均值是11.67%，10只农商行股票下跌均值是11.62%，9只股份制行股票下跌均值是15.68%，6只国 有大型银行股票下跌均值是4.25%。可以看出主要是股份制银行拖累导致指数整体12.85%的跌幅。这或 许跟三季度债市出现回调有关系。因为国有大行因为OCI储备充足，抗波动能力还是较强的，所以其的 区间跌幅也是相对小的。 从银行板块自身的基本面来说，盈利预期依旧稳健。浙商证券（601878）认为，2025年下半年上市的银 行利润维持小幅正增，主要原因是得益于息差拖累改善和减值贡献加大。上半年42家上市银行光净利润 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance issued a notice to guide insurance funds towards long-term stable investments and to strengthen the long-cycle assessment of state-owned commercial insurance companies [1] - The notice requires state-owned commercial insurance companies to establish a long-cycle assessment mechanism of over three years, focusing on improving asset-liability management and enhancing investment management capabilities [1] - The net asset return rate will be adjusted to include annual, three-year, and five-year indicators with respective weights of 30%, 50%, and 20%, promoting a focus on long-term returns and high-quality development [1] Group 2 - The capital preservation and appreciation rate will also be adjusted to include annual, three-year, and five-year indicators, which will help reduce the impact of market fluctuations on annual performance evaluations [1] - The new requirements will be implemented starting from the performance evaluation of 2025, encouraging long-term, value, and stable investments [1] - As of the end of Q1 2025, the balance of insurance fund investments was 34.93 trillion yuan, with stock investments in life and property insurance accounting for 8.43% and 7.56% respectively, indicating a significant gap from regulatory limits [1] Group 3 - The implementation of the notice is expected to increase the proportion of insurance funds allocated to stocks and reduce the impact of short-term market fluctuations on insurance companies' performance [2] - Bank stocks, known for stable performance and high dividends, align well with the insurance funds' pursuit of stable returns, potentially leading to increased allocation towards bank stocks under the long-cycle assessment mechanism [2] - ETFs tracking banking indices, such as the Bank ETF (515020) and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Financial ETF (513190), may see more long-term stable capital inflows, making them noteworthy investment targets [2]

Group 1 - Financial stocks in both Hong Kong and A-shares experienced significant gains, with notable increases of 18%, 14%, and 13% for Sifang Jingchuang, Lakala, and Advanced Digital Technology respectively in A-shares, and over 6% for ZhongAn Online and Yika in Hong Kong [1] - The launch of the Cross-Border Payment System on June 22 marks a significant development, enabling real-time cross-border remittances between residents of mainland China and Hong Kong, which is expected to attract more liquidity to Hong Kong [1] - Morgan Stanley views the Cross-Border Payment System as a mild positive for financial stocks, anticipating that it will support trading volumes in Hong Kong due to interest rate differentials between the mainland and Hong Kong [1] Group 2 - The approval of stablecoin legislation by the Hong Kong government has led to a surge in research on stablecoins, with at least 16 brokerage firms publishing over 24 research reports in the past week [1] - The combination of cross-border payment innovations and deepening financial openness is positioning the Cross-Border Payment System and stablecoins as new engines for industry development [1] - Notable financial products include the Financial Technology ETF from Huaxia, which rose by 4.55%, and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Financial ETF, which increased by 1.68%, both reflecting the bullish sentiment in the market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the positive impact of the recently released "Opinions" by the Central Committee and the State Council on the financial sector in Shenzhen, highlighting opportunities for financial reform, innovation, and technology empowerment. Group 1: Financial Sector Reforms - The "Opinions" emphasize five key points, including improving the incentive and constraint mechanisms for financial services to the real economy [5] - Support for Shenzhen to conduct integrated pilot projects for technology industry finance [5] - Establishing a sound system for credit and securitization of technology enterprises, optimizing financing mechanisms [5][6] - Deepening green finance reforms and allowing insurance funds to invest in specific private equity and venture capital funds [6] - Allowing companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange from the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area to list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [7][8] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, brokerage stocks and financial technology sectors saw significant gains, with specific ETFs like the Hong Kong Stock Connect Financial ETF rising by 2.14% [2][3] - The A-share market broke the 3400 key level, with the financial sector becoming a major highlight in the market [4] Group 3: IPO Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong IPO market is experiencing a revival, with May's fundraising exceeding 56 billion HKD, marking a four-year high [10] - Over 40 A-share companies plan to list in Hong Kong in 2025, with expected fundraising between 1300-1600 million HKD [12] - The A+H share listing trend is a significant driver for the IPO market [11] Group 4: Technology Empowerment - The "Opinions" highlight the importance of financial empowerment for technology, with potential for Shenzhen to replicate Hong Kong's success in attracting innovative companies [17][19] - The financial technology market is substantial, with a global market size exceeding 8.5 trillion USD, and China accounting for approximately 1.9 trillion USD [22] - Financial technology is growing rapidly at an annual rate of about 18%, with segments like digital payments and green finance technology seeing even higher growth [22] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The article suggests that the current environment presents unique investment opportunities in both traditional finance and financial technology sectors [25] - The financial sector is undergoing significant changes, with traditional institutions transforming and fintech companies innovating [25][27] - Investors are encouraged to consider financial technology ETFs, which have shown remarkable performance since their inception [23][24]