Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The supply of coking coal and coke has increased significantly, and the second round of price cuts for coke has begun. After the military parade, the supply and demand of coking coal recovered rapidly, but the second - round price cut for coke started. Affected by factors such as anti - involution and over - production verification, coal mine output is difficult to return to previous highs. With the arrival of the peak demand season, there is still a need for coke - steel enterprises to replenish inventory before the National Day. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly. The investment strategies are mainly range - bound operations for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for inter - period arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for coking profits [2][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review This week, the prices of coking coal and coke in the domestic market fluctuated. The first - round price cut for coke was officially implemented on Monday. Due to poor steel mill profits, the second - round price cut of 50 - 55 yuan/ton was proposed on Friday and took effect at 0:00 on September 15, while coke enterprises have not responded yet [2][4]. 3.2 Macro and Industrial News - The State Council approved pilot projects for comprehensive reform of factor market allocation in 10 regions including the Beijing Sub - center and key cities in southern Jiangsu. The goal is to break access barriers for new factors and promote their transformation into new productive forces [6]. - Eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Automobile Industry Steady - Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)". The target for 2025 is to achieve annual automobile sales of about 32.3 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 3%, with new energy vehicle sales of about 15.5 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20%. The industry aims for stable and positive development in 2026 [6]. - In the first eight months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 26.56 trillion yuan, 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan. At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap continued to narrow [6]. - In August, China's total goods trade import and export value was 3.87 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Exports were 2.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8%; imports were 1.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.7%. Exports and imports increased for three consecutive months. In the first eight months, the total goods trade import and export value was 29.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [7]. - China's PPI in August decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month, and the month - on - month change turned from a 0.2% decrease to flat. China's CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year and was flat month - on - month [7]. - The US CPI in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year, generally in line with expectations. The US PPI in August increased by 2.6% year - on - year (expected 3.3%); it decreased by 0.1% month - on - month (expected 0.3% increase) [7]. - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in early September, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 9.2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 320,000 tons, or 4.2%. The inventory continued to rise, up 2.61 million tons or 39.6% from the beginning of the year, and up 360,000 tons or 4.1% from the same period last year, with the year - on - year change turning from a decrease to an increase [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Except for a few coal mines whose underground production has not recovered, most previously shut - down coal mines have resumed production, and the supply has returned to normal. The coking coal auction performance has been mixed, indicating that the market's bearish sentiment has eased [2]. - **Demand**: Currently, downstream coke - steel enterprises have low procurement willingness, mainly for just - in - time inventory replenishment. The market is in a wait - and - see state. Due to poor sales and continuous price pressure of finished products, while raw material costs were previously firm, steel mill profits have gradually shrunk. This week, the pig iron output recovered significantly, showing a short - term demand recovery, but the medium - and long - term market outlook remains cautious, and the peak - season characteristics are not significant [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - **Market Outlook**: After the military parade, the supply and demand of coking coal recovered rapidly, but the second - round price cut for coke started. Affected by factors such as anti - involution and over - production verification, coal mine output is difficult to return to previous highs. With the arrival of the peak demand season, there is still a need for coke - steel enterprises to replenish inventory before the National Day. After the market correction in late August and considering potential macro - policy disturbances, the short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly [30]. - **Investment Strategies**: For single - side trading, mainly conduct range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for coking profits, mainly wait and see [2][30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the coking coal market showed mixed trends, with improved trading volume and market sentiment. The market presented a situation of weak supply and demand due to environmental policies affecting downstream demand and safety inspections limiting supply. The eighth round of coke price increase was not accepted by downstream steel mills, resulting in a short - term stable market under the game between coke and steel producers [2][5]. - In the short term, the futures market has support as both supply and demand are contracting. Attention should be paid to the resumption of coal mine supply after the parade [30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The coking coal market had mixed price movements this week, with better trading volume and improved market sentiment. Environmental policies led to production restriction expectations in downstream steel mills and coking plants, affecting coking coal demand. Mine safety inspections and "over - production checks" limited supply, creating a situation of weak supply and demand. The eighth round of coke price increase was rejected by steel mills, and the market remained stable in the short term [2][5]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting High - quality Urban Development" was released, with measures to support the construction of world - class city clusters and enhance urban development [7]. - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption next month and has formulated policies to promote service exports [7]. - From January to July this year, the national issuance of new local government bonds was 3.3159 trillion yuan, including 538.3 billion yuan of general bonds and 2.7776 trillion yuan of special bonds [7]. - From January to July, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4% [7]. - In mid - August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.15 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.115 million tons (a 2.0% daily increase). Estimated national daily crude steel output was 2.68 million tons (a 0.1% increase) [8]. - As of the week ending August 27, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 84.0%, a 1.2% decrease from the previous week [8]. - Recently, many small and medium - sized banks announced a reduction in RMB deposit interest rates by 10 - 20 basis points [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - On the production side, some coal mines had production stoppages or reductions due to internal reasons, while most maintained normal production. The market pricing logic is gradually returning to fundamental factors. Due to weakened downstream demand and slower procurement, the trading activity of coal washing plants and traders has declined [2]. - On the demand side, the seventh round of coke price increase was implemented. Steel mills are highly motivated to produce due to profit support, showing a structure of "high production, weak inventory reduction, and strong expectations." However, the pressure of steel inventory accumulation and potential production restriction policies will limit the upward space of coke prices [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Supply: Some coal mines have limited production due to accidents and other factors. With continuous safety inspections before the parade and some spontaneous production stoppages, coal mine production has tightened before the parade [30]. - Demand: Coke production has slightly declined in some areas under production restrictions. Coke enterprises maintain a demand - based procurement strategy, and overall coal mine transactions are average, but most coal mines do not have obvious inventory pressure [30]. - Investment Strategies: For single - side trading, use range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; and for coking profit, also wait and see [2][30].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the coking coal price in the domestic market fluctuated, and the coke market continued its weak performance. The fourth round of coke price cut is expected to be implemented next Monday. After consecutive contractions in supply, market sentiment has improved, but with the upcoming fourth round of coke price cut, the market remains cautious, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2][5][33] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - The coking coal price in the domestic market fluctuated, and the coke market continued its weak performance. Some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin reduced the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at zero o'clock on June 23, 2025. The fourth round of coke price cut is expected to be implemented next Monday [2][5] 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial News - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. From January to May, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year. In May, the crude oil output of industrial enterprises above designated size was 18.47 million tons, a 1.8% year - on - year increase, and the coal output was 4.0 billion tons, a 4.2% year - on - year increase. China's crude steel output in May was 86.55 million tons, a 6.9% year - on - year decrease; pig iron output was 74.11 million tons, a 3.3% year - on - year decrease; and steel output was 127.43 million tons, a 3.4% year - on - year increase [7] - From January to May, national real estate development investment was 3.6234 trillion yuan, a 10.7% year - on - year decrease. The housing construction area decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, the new construction area decreased by 22.8% year - on - year, and the completed area decreased by 17.3% year - on - year [8] - The state has allocated 162 billion yuan of the 300 billion yuan consumer goods trade - in support funds, and the remaining funds will be allocated in an orderly manner [8] - The June Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged, with the 5 - year LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3% [8] - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%, the fourth decision to keep the rate unchanged since January. The dot - plot shows two expected interest rate cuts in 2025, and 25 - basis - point cuts in 2026 and 2027 [8] - According to Mysteel, mainstream steel mills in the Tangshan market plan to reduce the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at zero o'clock on June 23, 2025. Some steel mills in Xingtai also made the same price cuts [9] 3. Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia that previously halted or reduced production due to environmental protection and other reasons have not resumed production, and there are new停产 mines this week, resulting in a continued slight reduction in supply. The average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased by 85 vehicles, remaining at a low level [33] - On the demand side, coke production decreased slightly. After the previous continuous decline in coal prices, some resources became more cost - effective, leading to appropriate purchases by downstream coking enterprises and intermediate links, which alleviated the inventory pressure on upstream coal mines. This week, the iron water output was 2.4218 million tons, a 0.57 - million - ton increase from last week [2][33] 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Investment strategies include mainly conducting range operations for single - side trading, adopting a wait - and - see approach for inter - period arbitrage, and also waiting and seeing for coking profit [3][33]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report believes that there is still rigid demand support, but downstream procurement is cautious, market sentiment continues to cool, and prices lack effective support. With continuous disturbances from crude steel production restrictions and medium - to long - term overcapacity pressure, the short - term futures market performance is expected to be weak with oscillations [2][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The price of coking coal mostly dropped by 20 - 30 yuan/ton this week. On the 9th, the domestic coking coal market fluctuated weakly. The price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market dropped by 10 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal was 1,270 yuan/ton [5]. - The domestic coke price remained stable this week. The hope for the second round of coke price increase has basically failed, and there are rumors that steel mills will propose a coke price cut next week [5]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. The central bank announced measures such as reducing the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, lowering the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, and reducing the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points. The Financial Regulatory Administration will introduce eight incremental policies, and the CSRC will support Central Huijin [7]. - In April, the year - on - year CPI decreased by 0.1%, and the PPI decreased by 2.7%. From January to April, the total value of China's goods trade imports and exports was 14.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. Exports were 8.39 trillion yuan, up 7.5%, and imports were 5.75 trillion yuan, down 4.2% [8]. - In late April 2025, key steel enterprises produced 22.02 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.202 million tons (a 1.2% decrease month - on - month), 19.6 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.96 million tons (a 0.3% decrease month - on - month), and 22.74 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.274 million tons (a 7.6% increase month - on - month) [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Downstream steel mills are operating well, and the high - level operation of pig iron output provides rigid support for coke demand. However, due to the weakening of billet prices, market expectations are cautious [2]. - Coking coal production remains high, and inventory is at a high level. Under the situation of strong supply and demand, the fundamental contradiction of coking coal is not prominent, and the market price fluctuates steadily [2]. - Affected by the off - season of steel consumption, steel mills have obvious expectations of maintenance and production reduction, and downstream procurement of raw materials is passive. But currently, steel mills are profitable, and the current high pig iron output provides good support for raw material prices in the short term, so a sharp decline in coking coal is unlikely [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The short - term futures market is expected to be weak with oscillations. The investment strategies are: for single - side trading, combine shorting at high prices with range trading; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for coking profit, mainly wait and see [32][33].