期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 电话：400-822-1758 双焦期货周度报告 2025年09月01日 八轮博弈持续 部分地区限产 摘 要： 行情回顾：本周炼焦煤市场涨跌互现，炼焦煤成交量转好， 市场情绪有所好转。本周受环保政策影响下游钢厂焦化开始有不 同程度的限产预期，炼焦煤需求受到一定影响。而产地矿山安全 检查和"查超产"也限制了一部分供应量，市场呈现供需双弱局 面。焦炭提涨第八轮下游钢厂并未接受，焦钢博弈下，市场短期 呈现偏稳态势。 基本面分析：产地端，个别煤矿因井下自身原因出现停减产 现象，多数煤矿维持正常生产。当前市场定价逻辑逐渐回归基本 面主导趋势。由于下游需求减弱和采购节奏放缓，洗煤厂及贸易 商采购趋于谨慎，交投活跃度下降，市场成交热度减弱。需求 端，焦炭第七轮提涨落地，当前钢厂在利润支撑下生产积极性较 高，基于钢厂高利润支撑和铁水产量高位，钢厂端表现为"高产 量、弱去库、强预期"的结构。焦炭价格受到需求韧性支撑，但 钢材累库压力与潜在的限产政策将对其上行空间形成制约。 投资策略：单边：区间操作为主 跨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the coking coal price in the domestic market fluctuated, and the coke market continued its weak performance. The fourth round of coke price cut is expected to be implemented next Monday. After consecutive contractions in supply, market sentiment has improved, but with the upcoming fourth round of coke price cut, the market remains cautious, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2][5][33] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - The coking coal price in the domestic market fluctuated, and the coke market continued its weak performance. Some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin reduced the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at zero o'clock on June 23, 2025. The fourth round of coke price cut is expected to be implemented next Monday [2][5] 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial News - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. From January to May, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year. In May, the crude oil output of industrial enterprises above designated size was 18.47 million tons, a 1.8% year - on - year increase, and the coal output was 4.0 billion tons, a 4.2% year - on - year increase. China's crude steel output in May was 86.55 million tons, a 6.9% year - on - year decrease; pig iron output was 74.11 million tons, a 3.3% year - on - year decrease; and steel output was 127.43 million tons, a 3.4% year - on - year increase [7] - From January to May, national real estate development investment was 3.6234 trillion yuan, a 10.7% year - on - year decrease. The housing construction area decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, the new construction area decreased by 22.8% year - on - year, and the completed area decreased by 17.3% year - on - year [8] - The state has allocated 162 billion yuan of the 300 billion yuan consumer goods trade - in support funds, and the remaining funds will be allocated in an orderly manner [8] - The June Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged, with the 5 - year LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3% [8] - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%, the fourth decision to keep the rate unchanged since January. The dot - plot shows two expected interest rate cuts in 2025, and 25 - basis - point cuts in 2026 and 2027 [8] - According to Mysteel, mainstream steel mills in the Tangshan market plan to reduce the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at zero o'clock on June 23, 2025. Some steel mills in Xingtai also made the same price cuts [9] 3. Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia that previously halted or reduced production due to environmental protection and other reasons have not resumed production, and there are new停产 mines this week, resulting in a continued slight reduction in supply. The average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased by 85 vehicles, remaining at a low level [33] - On the demand side, coke production decreased slightly. After the previous continuous decline in coal prices, some resources became more cost - effective, leading to appropriate purchases by downstream coking enterprises and intermediate links, which alleviated the inventory pressure on upstream coal mines. This week, the iron water output was 2.4218 million tons, a 0.57 - million - ton increase from last week [2][33] 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Investment strategies include mainly conducting range operations for single - side trading, adopting a wait - and - see approach for inter - period arbitrage, and also waiting and seeing for coking profit [3][33]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report believes that there is still rigid demand support, but downstream procurement is cautious, market sentiment continues to cool, and prices lack effective support. With continuous disturbances from crude steel production restrictions and medium - to long - term overcapacity pressure, the short - term futures market performance is expected to be weak with oscillations [2][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The price of coking coal mostly dropped by 20 - 30 yuan/ton this week. On the 9th, the domestic coking coal market fluctuated weakly. The price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market dropped by 10 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal was 1,270 yuan/ton [5]. - The domestic coke price remained stable this week. The hope for the second round of coke price increase has basically failed, and there are rumors that steel mills will propose a coke price cut next week [5]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. The central bank announced measures such as reducing the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, lowering the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, and reducing the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points. The Financial Regulatory Administration will introduce eight incremental policies, and the CSRC will support Central Huijin [7]. - In April, the year - on - year CPI decreased by 0.1%, and the PPI decreased by 2.7%. From January to April, the total value of China's goods trade imports and exports was 14.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. Exports were 8.39 trillion yuan, up 7.5%, and imports were 5.75 trillion yuan, down 4.2% [8]. - In late April 2025, key steel enterprises produced 22.02 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.202 million tons (a 1.2% decrease month - on - month), 19.6 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.96 million tons (a 0.3% decrease month - on - month), and 22.74 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.274 million tons (a 7.6% increase month - on - month) [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Downstream steel mills are operating well, and the high - level operation of pig iron output provides rigid support for coke demand. However, due to the weakening of billet prices, market expectations are cautious [2]. - Coking coal production remains high, and inventory is at a high level. Under the situation of strong supply and demand, the fundamental contradiction of coking coal is not prominent, and the market price fluctuates steadily [2]. - Affected by the off - season of steel consumption, steel mills have obvious expectations of maintenance and production reduction, and downstream procurement of raw materials is passive. But currently, steel mills are profitable, and the current high pig iron output provides good support for raw material prices in the short term, so a sharp decline in coking coal is unlikely [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The short - term futures market is expected to be weak with oscillations. The investment strategies are: for single - side trading, combine shorting at high prices with range trading; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for coking profit, mainly wait and see [32][33].