Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of black commodities first declined and then rebounded. Iron ore led the decline in the black - series at the beginning of the week, and coking coal and coke futures also weakened significantly. From Thursday, the chemical products sector rebounded across the board, and coking coal and coke prices followed the market sentiment and strengthened [4]. - In terms of supply and demand, some coal mines in the main production areas have stopped production, but most maintain normal production, with a slight increase in daily average output. Spot trading has weakened, and coal prices in the production areas have dropped slightly. Terminal buyers mainly purchase on - demand, and mine inventories have accumulated compared with the previous period [4]. - In terms of imports, the port clearance volume remains above 190,000 tons, maintaining the highest level in the same period. After the continuous decline of the futures market, traders' quotes have generally declined. Currently, the transaction price of some Mongolian No. 5 raw coal has dropped to 1,000 - 1,020 yuan/ton, and the cost of Mongolian coal and Shanxi mainstream warehouse receipts is 1,160 - 1,270 yuan/ton [4]. - After the continuous rise of raw coal prices, the losses of coking enterprises have deepened. The first price increase proposed by coking enterprises was rejected. Some coking enterprises have taken measures such as delaying shipments to downstream customers. The game between coking and steel enterprises is intense, and the first price cut may be implemented, but the upward space is expected to be limited. Currently, steel mills' profits are average, and the pig iron output is basically flat compared with the previous period. Constrained by high raw material prices and safety inspections, steel mills are still cautious about replenishing inventories [4]. - With only three weeks left until the Lunar New Year, downstream demand for raw materials still exists but is difficult to increase significantly. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the pig iron output can exceed 2.3 million tons. From the perspective of capital sentiment, the main contract increased its positions by 3,000 lots this week, and the speculation degree has significantly declined compared with the previous period. Currently, the fundamental contradictions are limited, the futures price is basically at the same level as the Mongolian No. 5 warehouse receipts, and the price is in a relatively reasonable range. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate within a range following the market sentiment, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high point [4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal Market - **Warehouse Receipt Cost**: Different varieties of coking coal have different spot prices and warehouse receipt costs in various locations. For example, the spot price of Mongolian No. 5 in Tangshan on January 22, 2026, was 1,390 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt cost was 1,163 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: The basis, weekly change, basis rate, average value in the past month, and seasonality of different contracts (January, May, September) are provided. For example, the basis of the January contract is - 41, with a weekly change of - 267 and a basis rate of - 3.33% [10]. - **Supply** - **Mine**: The daily average output of raw coal from 523 mines this week was 1.9944 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,500 tons; the daily average output of clean coal was 770,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,600 tons [17]. - **Coal Washery**: The daily average output of sample coal washeries was 276,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 37.41%, a week - on - week increase of 0.62% [20]. - **Import**: In 2025, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by 2.7% year - on - year. In December 2025, the import volume from Mongolia increased by 7.6% month - on - month and 59.1% year - on - year [21][24]. - **Auction Data**: In the week of January 16, 2026, the coking coal listing volume was 1.8641 million tons, the transaction rate was 94.42%, and the non - transaction rate was 5.58%. Compared with the week of January 9, 2026, the listing volume increased by 394,700 tons, the transaction rate increased by 8.57%, and the non - transaction rate decreased by 8.57% [27]. 3.2 Coke Market - **Coking Profit**: The coking profit in different regions (national, Shanxi, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shandong) has different values and weekly changes. For example, the national coking profit on January 22, 2026, was - 66 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton [36]. - **Basis**: Similar to coking coal, the basis, weekly change, basis rate, average value in the past month, and seasonality of different coke contracts (January, May, September) are provided [39]. - **Inventory Distribution**: As of January 23, 2026, the coke inventory in steel mills was 661,640 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,310 tons; the available days of steel mill inventory were 12.35 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.38 days; the inventory of independent coking enterprises was 81,450 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 360 tons; the port inventory was 196,060 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,990 tons [52].

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The domestic independent coking plants' weekly operating load has decreased, while there are price increases planned for coking coal and coke in the market, indicating a complex interplay between supply and demand dynamics in the coking industry [1][2][3]. Group 1: Industry Operations - As of October 23, the weekly operating load of major independent coking plants in China is at 75.33%, down by 1.71 percentage points from the peak in September, with maintenance activities reported in Gansu, Shanxi, and Shandong regions [1]. - The Daqin Railway, a key transportation route for coal, completed its autumn maintenance on October 25, which will enhance the supply chain for electricity coal during the winter and spring seasons [1]. Group 2: Market Pricing and Trends - On October 29, the coking market in Xingtai plans to increase coke prices, with wet quenching coke up by 50 yuan/ton and dry quenching coke up by 55 yuan/ton, effective from October 31 [1]. - According to Guotou Anxin Futures, the second round of price increases for coke has been fully implemented, with coking coal prices rising faster, leading to general profit margins for coking being under pressure [2]. - Zhonghui Futures notes that while the second round of coke price increases has been realized, there are expectations for further price hikes, with a notable balance in supply and demand for coke itself [3].

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the news is the recent decline in coking coal futures, with the primary contract dropping to 1624.5 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 2.43% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Coking coal prices are expected to remain stable before the holiday, with a balanced supply and demand situation [2] - The supply side is experiencing a rebound in coal prices, leading to deteriorating profits for coking enterprises and a slight decrease in coking coal production [2] - Demand from the steel industry is showing a slight increase in iron production, providing support for coking coal demand [2] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Ningzheng Futures predicts that coking coal prices will maintain stability before the holiday due to healthy market fundamentals and strong cost support [2] - Zhonghui Futures notes that coking coal is in a price increase phase, with stable production and a slight decrease in output, while inventory levels are rising [3] - Guotou Anxin Futures indicates that coking coal prices are under pressure, with increasing inventory levels and concerns about post-holiday market feedback affecting prices [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for both coking coal and coke are "oscillation". There are no ratings for cross - varieties, spot - futures, and options [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - From the fundamental perspective, for coke, the high - level oscillation of hot metal production supports the demand for coke, but the relatively high inventory compared to the same period restricts price increases. Coke enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices, and some coke enterprises in certain regions have initiated the first round of price increases this week, intensifying the game between coke and steel enterprises. For coking coal, coal mine production is gradually recovering, and the demand is considerable. However, considering that the profitability of coke enterprises narrows after the raw material price increase and the pressure on the steel fundamentals suppresses coking coal to some extent [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - As of the close this Friday, the coke 2601 contract closed at 1,692.5 yuan/ton, down 2.6% from last week; the coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1,196.5 yuan/ton, up 2.88% from last week. This period's prices fluctuated due to factors such as inventory replenishment and accumulation during the National Day holiday [1][5]. Supply - This week, according to Mysteel statistics, the daily average coke output of independent coke enterprises' samples was 53.12 tons, a decrease of 0.02 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 75.31%, a decrease of 0.04% from last week [1][22][30]. Demand - According to Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate was 84.45%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points from last week and 6.22 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.86%, an increase of 0.51 percentage points from last week and 6.41 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the steel mill profitability rate was 58.01%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points from last week but 39.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the daily average hot metal output was 242.36 tons, an increase of 1.34 tons from last week and 17.5 tons higher than the same period last year. The hot metal output remains at a high level [1][42]. Inventory - According to Mysteel's survey data, this period, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 644.67 tons, an increase of 11.38 tons from the previous week. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 790.07 tons, an increase of 5.73 tons from the previous week. Independent coke enterprises slightly reduced their inventory; the total coking coal inventory of all independent coke enterprise samples was 999.07 tons, an increase of 58.66 tons from the previous week [2][44].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the coking coal market showed mixed trends, with improved trading volume and market sentiment. The market presented a situation of weak supply and demand due to environmental policies affecting downstream demand and safety inspections limiting supply. The eighth round of coke price increase was not accepted by downstream steel mills, resulting in a short - term stable market under the game between coke and steel producers [2][5]. - In the short term, the futures market has support as both supply and demand are contracting. Attention should be paid to the resumption of coal mine supply after the parade [30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The coking coal market had mixed price movements this week, with better trading volume and improved market sentiment. Environmental policies led to production restriction expectations in downstream steel mills and coking plants, affecting coking coal demand. Mine safety inspections and "over - production checks" limited supply, creating a situation of weak supply and demand. The eighth round of coke price increase was rejected by steel mills, and the market remained stable in the short term [2][5]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting High - quality Urban Development" was released, with measures to support the construction of world - class city clusters and enhance urban development [7]. - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption next month and has formulated policies to promote service exports [7]. - From January to July this year, the national issuance of new local government bonds was 3.3159 trillion yuan, including 538.3 billion yuan of general bonds and 2.7776 trillion yuan of special bonds [7]. - From January to July, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4% [7]. - In mid - August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.15 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.115 million tons (a 2.0% daily increase). Estimated national daily crude steel output was 2.68 million tons (a 0.1% increase) [8]. - As of the week ending August 27, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 84.0%, a 1.2% decrease from the previous week [8]. - Recently, many small and medium - sized banks announced a reduction in RMB deposit interest rates by 10 - 20 basis points [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - On the production side, some coal mines had production stoppages or reductions due to internal reasons, while most maintained normal production. The market pricing logic is gradually returning to fundamental factors. Due to weakened downstream demand and slower procurement, the trading activity of coal washing plants and traders has declined [2]. - On the demand side, the seventh round of coke price increase was implemented. Steel mills are highly motivated to produce due to profit support, showing a structure of "high production, weak inventory reduction, and strong expectations." However, the pressure of steel inventory accumulation and potential production restriction policies will limit the upward space of coke prices [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Supply: Some coal mines have limited production due to accidents and other factors. With continuous safety inspections before the parade and some spontaneous production stoppages, coal mine production has tightened before the parade [30]. - Demand: Coke production has slightly declined in some areas under production restrictions. Coke enterprises maintain a demand - based procurement strategy, and overall coal mine transactions are average, but most coal mines do not have obvious inventory pressure [30]. - Investment Strategies: For single - side trading, use range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; and for coking profit, also wait and see [2][30].