宁证期货 节前焦炭价格预计保持震荡 中辉期货 焦炭本身供需相对平衡，跟随焦煤区间运行 9月30日盘中，焦炭期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至1624.5元。截止发稿，焦炭主力合约 报1626.0元，跌幅2.43%。 焦炭期货主力跌超2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 国投安信期货 焦炭价格有所承压 宁证期货：节前焦炭价格预计保持震荡 供应端，煤价快速反弹，焦企利润不断恶化，焦化开工承压，焦炭产量环比有所下滑。需求端，铁水产 量连续小幅增加，焦炭刚需支撑较好。总体上，当前上游供应有所回落，下游节前补库需求较好，焦炭 市场基本面保持健康。利润承压下，主流焦企已开启提涨，钢厂暂未回应，但成本支撑偏强及下游节前 补库需求较好之下，市场看涨情绪较多，节前价格预计保持震荡。 国投安信期货：焦炭价格有所承压 焦化第一轮提涨即将全部落地。焦化利润一般，日产微降。焦炭库存继续累增，由于双节前补库需求， 贸易商采购意愿有所增加。整体来看，碳元素供应充裕，下游铁水维持较高水平，对原材料形成托底， 价格前低支撑相对夯实。焦炭盘面小幅升水，双节补库基本完成，价格环比大概率震荡下行，市场担忧 节后产业链负 ...

黑色建材周报 | 2025-09-28 焦炭首轮提涨，焦钢博弈加剧 市场分析 截止本周五收盘，焦炭2601合约收于1692.5元/吨，环比上周下跌2.6%；焦煤2601合约收于1196.5元/吨，环比上周 上涨2.88%。本期受国庆假期补库及累库等因素影响，价格震荡运行。 供给方面：本周Mysteel统计独立焦企样本焦炭日均产量53.12万吨，环比减少0.02万吨，产能利用率75.31%，较上 周下降0.04%。 需求方面：根据Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率84.45%，环比上周增加0.47个百分点，同比去年增加6.22个百分 点；高炉炼铁产能利用率90.86%，环比上周增加0.51个百分点，同比去年增加6.41个百分点；钢厂盈利率58.01%， 环比上周下降0.86个百分点，同比去年增加39.4个百分点；日均铁水产量242.36万吨，环比上周增加1.34万吨，同 比去年增加17.5万吨。铁水产量铁水仍处于高位。 库存方面：根据Mysteel调研数据，本期247家钢厂焦炭库存644.67万吨，环比增加11.38万吨。247家钢厂焦煤库存 790.07万吨，环比增加5.73万吨。独立焦企小幅去库；独立 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the coking coal market showed mixed trends, with improved trading volume and market sentiment. The market presented a situation of weak supply and demand due to environmental policies affecting downstream demand and safety inspections limiting supply. The eighth round of coke price increase was not accepted by downstream steel mills, resulting in a short - term stable market under the game between coke and steel producers [2][5]. - In the short term, the futures market has support as both supply and demand are contracting. Attention should be paid to the resumption of coal mine supply after the parade [30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The coking coal market had mixed price movements this week, with better trading volume and improved market sentiment. Environmental policies led to production restriction expectations in downstream steel mills and coking plants, affecting coking coal demand. Mine safety inspections and "over - production checks" limited supply, creating a situation of weak supply and demand. The eighth round of coke price increase was rejected by steel mills, and the market remained stable in the short term [2][5]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting High - quality Urban Development" was released, with measures to support the construction of world - class city clusters and enhance urban development [7]. - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption next month and has formulated policies to promote service exports [7]. - From January to July this year, the national issuance of new local government bonds was 3.3159 trillion yuan, including 538.3 billion yuan of general bonds and 2.7776 trillion yuan of special bonds [7]. - From January to July, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4% [7]. - In mid - August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.15 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.115 million tons (a 2.0% daily increase). Estimated national daily crude steel output was 2.68 million tons (a 0.1% increase) [8]. - As of the week ending August 27, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 84.0%, a 1.2% decrease from the previous week [8]. - Recently, many small and medium - sized banks announced a reduction in RMB deposit interest rates by 10 - 20 basis points [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - On the production side, some coal mines had production stoppages or reductions due to internal reasons, while most maintained normal production. The market pricing logic is gradually returning to fundamental factors. Due to weakened downstream demand and slower procurement, the trading activity of coal washing plants and traders has declined [2]. - On the demand side, the seventh round of coke price increase was implemented. Steel mills are highly motivated to produce due to profit support, showing a structure of "high production, weak inventory reduction, and strong expectations." However, the pressure of steel inventory accumulation and potential production restriction policies will limit the upward space of coke prices [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Supply: Some coal mines have limited production due to accidents and other factors. With continuous safety inspections before the parade and some spontaneous production stoppages, coal mine production has tightened before the parade [30]. - Demand: Coke production has slightly declined in some areas under production restrictions. Coke enterprises maintain a demand - based procurement strategy, and overall coal mine transactions are average, but most coal mines do not have obvious inventory pressure [30]. - Investment Strategies: For single - side trading, use range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; and for coking profit, also wait and see [2][30].