Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The domestic coking coal and coke markets rose and then stabilized this week. The first round of coke price increase was implemented on the 1st, with a rise of 50 - 55 yuan/ton for stamp - charged coke and 70 - 75 yuan/ton for top - charged coke. The second - round price increase may be pushed forward next week. The supply of coking coal is relatively stable, and downstream replenishment has slowed down. The market is expected to remain volatile in the future [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The domestic coking coal and coke markets rose and then stabilized. The first - round coke price increase was implemented on the 1st, with a rise of 50 - 55 yuan/ton for stamp - charged coke and 70 - 75 yuan/ton for top - charged coke. The second - round price increase may be pushed forward next week [2][4]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On October 9, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition and maintaining a good market price order [6]. - In the first eight months of 2025, the added value of small and medium - sized industrial enterprises above the designated size in China increased by 7.6% year - on - year, 3.3 percentage points higher than that of large enterprises. In August, the SME export index was 51.9%, remaining in the expansion range for 17 consecutive months [6]. - In September, the central bank's SLF net investment was 1.9 billion yuan, MLF net investment was 30 billion yuan, PSL net withdrawal was 8.83 billion yuan, short - term reverse repurchase net investment was 39.02 billion yuan, and outright reverse repurchase net investment was 30 billion yuan [6]. - In September, the sales of the top 100 real - estate enterprises in China rebounded. According to the China Index Academy, the total sales of the top 100 real - estate enterprises increased by 11.9% month - on - month. According to the CRIC Research Center, the sales operating amount of the top 100 real - estate enterprises reached 25.278 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 22.1% and a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [6]. - In September, the estimated wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide were 1.5 million, a year - on - year increase of 22% and a month - on - month increase of 16%. From January to September this year, the cumulative wholesale was 10.446 million, a year - on - year increase of 32% [6]. - In September, about 105,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in the Chinese market, a 15% increase from August and an 82% increase from the 58,000 sold in the same period last year [7]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 5.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is 94.6%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in December is 0.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is 19.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut is 80.1% [7]. - As of October 10, the total inventory of imported iron ore in Chinese steel mills was 90.4619 million tons, a decrease of 9.906 million tons from the previous period. The daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills was 299,140 tons, an increase of 340 tons from the previous period. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.24 days, a decrease of 3.35 days from the previous period [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Some coal mines in Lvliang and Linfen were shut down for 2 - 8 days during the National Day holiday. Except for individual mines in the region for shutdown and maintenance, the impact time was relatively short, and the overall output was relatively stable with little fluctuation. The overall supply was balanced [2]. - Demand side: Coking and steel enterprises mainly consumed the inventory prepared before the festival. Due to the unclear price trend after the festival, the downstream replenishment willingness was cautious, and the overall raw - material inventory was maintained near the safety inventory line. The subsequent steel trend still needs to be observed [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Market outlook: During the holiday, coking enterprises mainly consumed in - plant inventory, and the procurement willingness decreased. The spot coal price was weakly stable. After the festival, coal - mine production will quickly return to normal, but the production level will still be restricted. Although downstream replenishment has slowed down, there is still rigid demand under high molten - iron production. The fundamentals are relatively healthy. The Sino - US tariff war has little impact on the fundamentals, but the macro - sentiment may fluctuate repeatedly. It is expected that the future price will remain volatile [29]. - Investment strategy: For single - side trading, focus on range - bound operations; for inter - delivery spread arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for coking profit, mainly wait and see [2][30]

黑色建材周报 | 2025-10-12 供给方面：Mysteel统计523家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用率为81.9%，环比减4.6%。原煤日均产量183.9万吨，环 比减10.3万吨；精煤日均产量75.2万吨，环比减2.2万吨。焦炭日均产量112.5万吨，周环比减少0.12万吨。 需求方面：Mysteel调研247家钢厂日均铁水产量 241.54万吨，环比上周减少0.27万吨，同比去年增加8.46万吨。 库存方面：Mysteel调研数据焦炭总库存967.2万吨，周环比减少15.11万吨。其中，247钢厂库存650.80万吨，周环 比减少12.6万吨；独立焦化厂库存63.8万吨，周环比增加1.49万吨；18港口库存252.60万吨，周环比下降4.00万吨。 Mysteel焦煤库存3632.4万吨，周环比下降131.9万吨，其中独立焦化厂和口岸下降较为明显，独立焦化厂下降78.7 万吨，口岸下降31.5万吨。 整体来看，焦炭方面，供应端日均产量下滑，呈现边际收缩态势；需求端虽因钢厂高炉开工率、产能利用率提升 及铁水产量增长获阶段性支撑，但终端需求疲软叠加钢厂利润收窄，价格上行承压。焦煤方面，矿山恢复生产且 蒙煤通 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant increase in the prices of coking coal and coke futures, indicating a bullish trend in the futures market [1] - Coking coal futures main contract rose by 3.38%, reaching 1270 yuan per ton [1] - Coke futures main contract increased by 1.99%, reaching 1769 yuan per ton [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The coking coal price in the domestic market continued to fluctuate this week. On the 8th, mainstream coke enterprises proposed a sixth round of price increases for coke, with a 50 yuan/ton increase for tamping wet quenched coke and a 55 yuan/ton increase for tamping dry quenched coke, effective from 0:00 on August 11th [2][4]. - Overall supply has decreased due to the continuous advancement of coal mine over - production inspections and the implementation of the "276 - working - day" production plan by some coal mines in Shanxi. The daily average clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port remains high. Coke production has increased slightly, and the downstream procurement rhythm has slowed down after restocking, but coal mine inventories continue to decline. The short - term fundamental contradiction is not obvious, and the futures market is expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall in the short term [29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The coking coal price in the domestic market continued to fluctuate. Mainstream coke enterprises proposed a sixth - round price increase for coke, with different increases for tamping wet quenched and dry quenched coke [2][4]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, lower the deposit - reserve ratio, and increase financing support for key areas [6]. - Relevant departments have issued plans for the digital transformation of the machinery industry, rural road improvement, etc. [6]. - In July, the CPI increased month - on - month, and the PPI decline narrowed. The year - on - year growth rate of the top 100 real - estate enterprises' land acquisition amount increased significantly. The retail sales of passenger cars and new - energy passenger cars increased year - on - year. The monthly operation rate of construction machinery decreased, and the export of household appliances increased year - on - year [6][7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Affected by various factors such as coal mine inspections, production tasks, and underground conditions, the daily output of raw coal has shrunk, and short - term recovery is slow. The overall supply has decreased due to inspections and production plans, while the import at the Ganqimaodu Port remains high [2][29]. - Demand: Some coke enterprises have initiated a sixth - round price increase. Steel mills have good profits and high operating rates, with strong rigid demand for coke. Coke production has increased slightly, and the downstream procurement rhythm has slowed down [2][29]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Market Outlook: Domestic supply is constantly disturbed, and it will take time for the increase in Mongolian coal imports to be reflected. The short - term fundamental contradiction is not obvious, and the futures market is expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall in the short term [29]. - Investment Strategies: For single - side trading, use range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for coking profits, stay on the sidelines [2][29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 5, the main contract 2509 of coke futures continued to rebound with a narrowing increase, while the main contract 2601 of coking coal futures turned stronger, hitting the daily limit at the end of the session before opening and giving back a small part of the gains. Considering the tight supply in the spot market of coking coal and coke driven by supply - demand relations, and the potential for price increases, it is possible that the phased decline in the futures market of coking coal and coke has ended, and then it may turn into a volatile market, waiting for further development of the supply - demand relationship after the spot market price increase to determine the direction [5][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Futures Market - On August 5, for the coke futures main contract J2509, the previous closing price was 1585 yuan/ton, the opening price was 1585.5 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1626 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1551.5 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1615 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.15%. The trading volume was 30,451 lots, the open interest was 25,782 lots, a decrease of 2,331 lots, and the capital inflow/outflow was - 0.58 billion yuan. For the coking coal futures main contract JM2601, the previous closing price was 1092.5 yuan/ton, the opening price was 1099.5 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1143 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1066.5 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1141 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2.33%. The trading volume was 1,908,758 lots, the open interest was 487,977 lots, an increase of 59,997 lots, and the capital inflow was 10.71 billion yuan [5]. - Regarding the black - series futures positions on August 5, for different contracts such as RB2510, HC2510, SS2509, J2509, JM2601, and I2509, the long and short positions of the top 20 traders, their position changes, and the long - short comparison and deviation degrees are presented in the table [6]. 3.1.2 Spot Market - On August 5, the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1470 yuan/ton, with an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the price in Tangshan was 1400 yuan/ton, also with an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The aggregated price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Tangshan was 1485 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan/ton; in Linfen it was 1500 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Handan it was 1350 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; in other regions, the prices and their changes are also presented in the table [8]. 3.1.3 Technical Analysis - On August 5, for the coke 2509 contract, the daily KDJ indicator continued to diverge, with the J value rising, the K value slightly decreasing, and the D value continuing to decline. The daily MACD indicator's green bar continued to slightly expand. For the coking coal 2601 contract, the daily KDJ indicator diverged, with the J and K values turning up and the D value continuing to decline. The daily MACD indicator had a death cross the previous day, and the green bar slightly expanded [8]. 3.1.4 Future Outlook - News: On July 31, Zhang Xing, Deputy Director of the General Affairs Department of the National Energy Administration, stated that the National Energy Administration will guide coal - producing provinces and enterprises to continue production organization, formulate scientific production plans, arrange equipment maintenance reasonably, and ensure coal production and supply. It will also conduct production inspections in key coal - producing provinces and urge enterprises to produce according to announced capacities [10]. - Fundamentals: For coke, the output of independent coking plants decreased slightly after two consecutive weeks of increase, and the output of steel mills' coke reached a new low since late February. The port coke inventory rose to a new high since early June, while the inventories of steel mills and coking plants reached new lows since late December last year. The profit per ton of coke has been in the red for 11 consecutive weeks, and on August 3, the 5th round of spot price increase for coke was proposed. For coking coal, from January to June, China's coking coal imports still had a large year - on - year decline of - 7.4%. In the past 7 weeks, the inventories of raw coal and clean coal in coal washing plants have significantly decreased, with declines of 17.6% and 33.8% respectively. The inventory of independent coking plants has increased for 6 consecutive weeks, reaching a new high since early February, the port inventory reached a new low since early August last year, and the steel mill inventory has increased for 3 consecutive weeks. With the continuous increase in steel mill inventory, the replenishment of coking plants has significantly cooled down [10]. 3.2 Industry News - The People's Bank of China released the liquidity injection data of central bank tools in July 2025 on August 4. In July, the Standing Lending Facility (SLF) had a net withdrawal of 300 million yuan, the Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) had a net injection of 10 billion yuan, the Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) had a net withdrawal of 23 billion yuan, the short - term reverse repurchase had a net injection of 18.8 billion yuan, and the outright reverse repurchase had a net injection of 20 billion yuan [12]. - According to the VAT invoice data of the State Taxation Administration, driven by the large - scale equipment renewal policy, in the first half of the year, the national enterprise procurement of mechanical equipment increased by 11.1% year - on - year. With the continuous effectiveness of the consumer goods trade - in policy, consumer demand was released. In the first half of the year, the retail sales of household audio - visual equipment such as TVs and daily household appliances such as refrigerators increased by 45.3% and 56.6% respectively year - on - year; furniture retail related to home improvement increased by 34% year - on - year; the retail sales of communication equipment such as mobile phones under the expanded trade - in policy increased by 25.4% year - on - year [12]. - The VAT invoice data of the State Taxation Administration showed that in the first half of the year, driven by national tax incentives and other policies, the sales revenue growth rate of the manufacturing industry was 1.5 percentage points faster than the overall growth rate of national enterprises. The "high - end" development of the manufacturing industry advanced steadily, with the sales revenues of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries increasing by 8.9% and 11.9% respectively year - on - year [12][13]. - According to Securities Times, since April this year, the issuance speed of new local government special bonds has accelerated monthly, and the issuance scale reached a new high in July. Enterprise Early Warning System data showed that in July, the national issuance of new special bonds was 61.6936 billion yuan, an increase of 8.9842 billion yuan from the previous month [13]. - Shaanxi Coal Industry announced that in July 2025, its coal production was 14.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.10% compared to 13.96 million tons in July 2024; the self - produced coal sales volume was 12.99 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.89% [13]. - According to the Passenger Car Association, based on preliminary monthly data, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in July were 1.18 million units, a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month decrease of 4%. From January to July this year, the cumulative wholesale was 7.63 million units, a year - on - year increase of 35% [13]. - On August 4, Luo Junjie, Vice President of the China National Machinery Industry Federation, stated that under the combined effect of existing policies and a new round of "two new" policies, domestic market demand improved, driving the overall production and sales of mechanical industry products to be better than the same period last year. In the first half of the year, among the 122 key - monitored main products, 84 products had a year - on - year increase in output, accounting for 68.9%, an increase of 7.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year; 38 products had a year - on - year decrease in output, accounting for 31.1% [13]. - According to the China National Machinery Industry Federation, in the first half of the year, the new energy vehicle market maintained rapid growth. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 6.968 million and 6.937 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 41.4% and 40.3% respectively, and the market penetration rate reached 44.3%, a record high for the same period [13]. - According to the Daily Economic News, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co., Ltd. stated on the interactive platform on August 4 that the company currently has no over - production. The national "anti - involution" policies will lead to a contraction in overall coal supply, the profitability of the downstream steel industry will improve and be transmitted upstream, and the demand is expected to increase due to large - scale infrastructure projects. The company's performance is expected to recover due to the bottoming - out and rebound of coal prices [13]. - According to Xinjiang Daily, since this summer, Xinjiang Railway has made efforts in coal supply transportation, with a daily coal shipment of 410,000 tons, including 252,500 tons of coal transported out of Xinjiang, strongly supporting power generation enterprises to meet the peak summer demand [13]. - According to Guangzhou Daily, on August 3, the Panamanian - flagged "Dinghe" vessel loaded with 8,000 tons of steel and steel plates sailed from the Baosteel finished product terminal in the Donghaidao Port Area of Zhanjiang Port, Guangdong to Laem Chabang Port, Thailand, marking the official opening of a new direct shipping route from Baosteel Zhanjiang Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. to Thailand [13]. - On August 4, the Malaysian Minister of Trade reported the tariff negotiation situation with the United States to the parliament. Malaysia agreed to reduce or cancel import tariffs on 98.4% of goods on the US tariff list, exempt sales taxes on some US agricultural products such as fruits and seafood, and purchase US semiconductor, aerospace, and data center products worth 150 billion US dollars within five years [13]. - The Indonesian coal giant Bumi Resources recently released its 2025 H1 financial report, showing that the company's net profit in the first half of the year dropped sharply by 75.97% year - on - year to 20.4 million US dollars (approximately 331.21 trillion Indonesian rupiahs). Although the company's revenue increased by 13.78% year - on - year to 677.93 million US dollars, the increase in financial costs and business transformation pressure led to a significant shrinkage in profits [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke in major markets, the aggregated spot price of main coking coal in major markets, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants, the production and capacity utilization rate of steel mills' coke, the national daily average hot metal output, the coke inventory of ports/steel mills/coking plants, the profit per ton of independent coking plants, the production and operating rate of coal washing plants, the raw coal and clean coal inventory of coal washing plants, the coking coal inventory of ports/coking plants/steel mills, the basis between Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke and the September contract, and the basis between Linfen's low - sulfur main coking coal and the January contract [15][17][23][25][27][32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply recovery and the increase in Mongolian coal imports still need time to materialize, and the de - stocking cycle of upstream coal mines continues. After the market sentiment fades, the futures price returns to a reasonable range. In the short term, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate and adjust [32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The price of coking coal in the domestic market continued its volatile and upward trend this week, but the increase narrowed, mostly in the range of 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The price of coke increased continuously, with the fourth price increase implemented on the 28th, and the cumulative increase reached 200 - 220 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - The central government emphasizes continued and timely efforts in macro - policies in the second half of the year, focusing on expanding domestic demand, boosting consumption, and promoting economic circulation. The decision to hold the 20th Fourth Plenary Session in October to study the 15th Five - Year Plan is made. A new round of China - US economic and trade talks was held, and both sides agreed to extend the suspension of certain tariffs for 90 days [6]. - From January to June 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China was 343.65 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased 13.7 times year - on - year. In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a seasonal decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [6][7]. - In June 2025, China's steel exports were 9.678 million tons, a decrease of 8.5% from the previous month, and the export price decreased by 1.6%. From January to June, the cumulative steel exports were 58.147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%, and the export price decreased by 10.2%. In June, steel imports were 470,000 tons, a decrease of 2.4% from the previous month, and the import price decreased by 2.1%. From January to June, the cumulative steel imports were 3.023 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.4%, and the import price increased by 2.2% [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Affected by factors such as over - production inspections, completion of monthly production tasks, and underground conditions in some areas this week, the daily output of raw coal decreased slightly. However, the overall demand for coking coal was relatively strong, and coal mines significantly reduced their inventories [2]. - Demand side: The molten iron output decreased slightly but remained at a high level. The fourth price increase of coke was implemented, and mainstream coking enterprises proposed a fifth price increase, but mainstream steel mills have not responded yet. Coking and steel enterprises maintained a rigid demand for raw coal procurement under high production loads and stable inventory consumption. Future changes in the operation of coal mines, coking, and steel enterprises need to be monitored [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Market outlook: The futures market is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term. - Investment strategies: For single - sided trading, focus on range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for coking profit trading, also adopt a wait - and - see approach [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views Coke - Supply: The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, improving coke enterprises' profits. Coke enterprise production has increased month - on - month, while steel mill coke production has decreased slightly, with total coke production rising slightly. The second round of price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton will be implemented this Tuesday [5][13]. - Demand: Last week, hot metal production unexpectedly increased, remaining at a relatively high level, providing strong support for coke demand. As of July 18, the daily average hot metal production was 2.4244 million tons (+2630) [5][21]. - Inventory: The rising futures market has stimulated downstream replenishment. Coke enterprise inventories have decreased, steel mill inventories have increased, and port inventories have decreased month - on - month, resulting in a decline in total coke inventories [5][25]. - Conclusion: Driven by strong macro sentiment and improved fundamentals, a short - term long strategy is recommended. The coke index is expected to trade in the range of 1500 - 1540 - 1670 [5]. Coking Coal - Supply: Previously shut - down coal mines have gradually resumed production, but environmental inspections are still affecting output, leading to a slow recovery in domestic coal production. Mongolian coal customs clearance has gradually recovered after the Mongolian National Day [6][42]. - Demand: Coke production has increased month - on - month but remains at a historically low level, providing moderately weak support for coking coal demand in the short term [6][50]. - Inventory: Rising coking coal futures and spot prices have stimulated speculative demand and downstream replenishment. Coal mine inventories have continued to decline, while coke enterprise and steel mill coking coal inventories have increased month - on - month, with port inventories slightly decreasing and total coking coal inventories increasing [6][61]. - Conclusion: Driven by strong macro sentiment, the futures market has risen, leading to a significant improvement in spot sales and a joint increase in futures and spot prices. A short - term long strategy is recommended. The coking coal index is expected to trade in the range of 930 - 1060 [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coke Supply - Coke enterprise production has increased month - on - month, while steel mill coke production has decreased slightly, with total coke production rising slightly. As of July 18, the daily average production of all - sample coking plants was 642,100 tons (+130), and the daily average production of 247 steel mill coking plants was 470,900 tons (-100), with a total production of 1.113 million tons (+30) [13]. Profit - After the first round of price increase, coke enterprises' profits have recovered. As of July 18, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 43 yuan/ton (+20) [17]. Demand - Hot metal production unexpectedly increased, remaining at a relatively high level, providing strong support for coke demand. As of July 18, the daily average hot metal production was 2.4244 million tons (+2630); the weekly total production of five major steel products was 8.6819 million tons (-4530); the steel mill profitability rate was 60.17% (+0.43); the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.89% (-0.99); and the blast furnace start - up rate was 83.46% (+0.31) [21]. Inventory - Coke enterprise inventories have decreased, steel mill inventories have increased, and port inventories have decreased month - on - month, resulting in a decline in total coke inventories. As of July 18, the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 875,500 tons (-55,300); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.3899 million tons (+11,900); the total inventory of four major ports was 1.9911 million tons (-9700); and the total coke inventory was 9.2565 million tons (-53,100) [25]. Inventory Available Days - The inventory available days of steel mill coke have decreased month - on - month. The inventory available days of 247 steel mill sample coking plants were 11.46 days (-0.18) [29]. Basis - As of July 18, the warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1401 yuan/ton. The basis of the January contract was - 162, the basis of the May contract was - 197, and the basis of the September contract was - 117. There is currently no basis - driven opportunity [32]. Calendar Spread - As of July 18, the spread between the September - January contracts was - 45, and the spread between the January - May contracts was - 35 [36]. Coking Coal Supply - Domestic coal production is recovering slowly due to environmental inspections, and Mongolian coal customs clearance is gradually resuming. As of July 18, the daily average production of 523 sample mines was 1.9288 million tons (+10,500), with an operating rate of 86.07% (+0.55); the daily average production of coal preparation plants was 53.38 tons (+0.79), with an operating rate of 62.85% (+0.53) [42]. Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance - Mongolian coal customs clearance has gradually recovered after the Mongolian National Day [46]. Demand - Coke production has increased month - on - month but remains at a historically low level, providing moderately weak support for coking coal demand in the short term. As of July 18, the total inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 7.9019 million tons (+377,500), with available days of 11.56 days (+0.53), corresponding to a daily coking coal consumption of 683,600 tons (+1400); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.911 million tons (+81,700), with available days of 12.63 days (+0.15), corresponding to a daily consumption of 626,400 tons (-1000); and the total daily consumption was 1.3099 million tons (+400) [50]. Coal Preparation Plant Inventory - As of July 18, the raw coal inventory of coal preparation plants was 2.9869 million tons (-20,800), and the clean coal inventory was 1.9154 million tons (-55,300) [54]. Inventory - Coal mine inventories have decreased significantly, while coke enterprise and steel mill inventories have increased. As of July 18, the port inventory was 321,500 tons (-140); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.911 million tons (+81,700); the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 9.2911 million tons (+367,600); the clean coal inventory of 532 sample mines was 3.3907 million tons (-381,100); and the total coking coal inventory was 23.8078 million tons (+66,800). The available days of coking coal for 230 independent coking plants were 11.56 days (+0.53), and the available days of coking coal inventory for 247 steel enterprises were 12.63 days (+0.15) [61]. Basis - As of July 18, the warehouse - receipt price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal in Tangshan was 918 yuan/ton. The basis of the January contract was - 98, the basis of the May contract was - 114, and the basis of the September contract was - 49. There is currently no basis - driven opportunity [66]. Calendar Spread - As of July 18, the spread between the September - January contracts was - 49.5, and the spread between the January - May contracts was - 16. There is currently no calendar - spread opportunity [70].

Group 1 - The main contracts for coking coal and coke have seen significant price increases, with coking coal rising by 7.24% to 1000 yuan per ton and coke increasing by 5.28% to 1606 yuan per ton [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic coking coal and coke prices showed a stable and slightly upward trend this week. The supply of coking coal was tight, with slow recovery. The iron - water output remained at a high level. The market sentiment was positive, and the futures market was expected to fluctuate in the short term. Investment strategies included mainly range - bound operations for single - side trading, and a wait - and - see approach for inter - period arbitrage and coking profit [2][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The prices of domestic coking coal and coke were stable with a slight upward trend. On Friday, some coke enterprises in Hebei proposed the first - round price increase. The prices of different types of coke increased by 70 - 95 yuan/ton. Some regions saw coking coal price increases of 30 - 100 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - President Xi Jinping pointed out the development direction of the coal industry during an inspection in Shanxi, aiming to build a new energy system [6]. - In June 2025, China's PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month, while CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year and decreased by 0.1% month - on - month [6]. - From January to June, the cumulative transaction area of first - and second - hand housing in Shanghai increased by 17% year - on - year, with second - hand housing increasing by 24% [6]. - In the first half of 2025, the production and sales of automobiles exceeded 15 million, with new energy vehicles growing significantly. In June, the production and sales of automobiles also showed year - on - year growth [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Coal mines in Changzhi had reduced production due to relocation, and many mines in Shaanxi were under maintenance. The overall supply was tight. The iron - water output was around 240 tons this week, remaining at a high level [2]. - Demand side: Coke production decreased slightly, downstream coke enterprises actively replenished stocks, the trading atmosphere of coking coal was good, and coal mine inventories continued to decline but at a slower pace [33]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Supply: Some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have resumed production, but there are still new production cuts in other areas of Shanxi, and environmental inspections in Inner Mongolia are getting stricter. The supply recovery is slow [33]. - Import: The Ganqimaodu Port was closed this week and will resume on July 16th, with an average daily clearance of 744 vehicles during the previous four - day clearance [33]. - Investment strategies: Range - bound operations for single - side trading, wait - and - see for inter - period arbitrage and coking profit [2][33].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black sector (coking coal and coke) is "oscillating bullish" [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - On Friday, the coking coal main contract Jm2509 closed at 913.0, up 1.78% from the day - session opening; the coke main contract J2509 closed at 1519.5, up 1.50% from the day - session opening. The first round of coke price increase this week is expected to be implemented. With the market news of crude steel production restrictions, downstream finished products are favorable, steel mills have good profits, and there are more bottom - fishing behaviors by traders, so the spot price of coking coal continues to rise. In the short term, there is still an expectation of 1 - 2 rounds of coke price increases, and both coking coal and coke will continue to run bullishly. It is not recommended to short the near - month contract as the spread between near - and far - month contracts is shrinking. Positive arbitrage can be tried, and a unilateral position is advised to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, the coking coal main contract Jm2509 closed at 913.0, up 1.78% from the day - session opening; the coke main contract J2509 closed at 1519.5, up 1.50% from the day - session opening [1] Important Information - This week, the output of five major steel products was 872.72 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.44 million tons; the total inventory of five major steel products was 1339.58 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.35 million tons; the consumption of five major steel products was 873.07 million tons, a decrease of 1.4% [1] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 85.5%, a week - on - week increase of 1.7%. The daily average output of raw coal was 1.918 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.8 million tons, and the raw coal inventory was 642.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22.5 million tons [1] - On July 11, the price of top - charged coke in major production areas such as Shanxi and Inner Mongolia increased by up to 95 yuan/ton, and the prices of tamping wet - quenched coke and dry - quenched coke increased by 70 yuan/ton and 75 yuan/ton respectively [1] Market Logic - On Friday night session, both coking coal and coke continued to see significant position - increasing, but the increase was relatively limited. The first round of coke price increase this week will be implemented. With the market news of crude steel production restrictions, downstream finished products are favorable, steel mills have good profits, and there are more bottom - fishing behaviors by traders, so the spot price of coking coal continues to rise. In the short term, there is still an expectation of 1 - 2 rounds of coke price increases, and both coking coal and coke will continue to run bullishly [1] Trading Strategy - The spread between near - and far - month contracts is shrinking. It is not recommended to short the near - month contract. Positive arbitrage can be tried, and a unilateral position is advised to wait and see [1]