Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant increase in the prices of coking coal and coke futures, indicating a bullish trend in the futures market [1] - Coking coal futures main contract rose by 3.38%, reaching 1270 yuan per ton [1] - Coke futures main contract increased by 1.99%, reaching 1769 yuan per ton [1]

双焦期货周度报告 2025年08月11日 六轮提涨开启 盘面震荡偏强 摘 要： 行情回顾：本周国内市场炼焦煤价格延续震荡运行走势 ，8 日主流焦企针对焦炭价格提出第六轮上涨，捣固湿熄焦上调50元 /吨、捣固干熄焦上调55元/吨，自8月11日0时起执行。 基本面分析：供应端，本周部分地区受煤矿检查叠加月底完 成生产任务以及井下条件等各种因素影响，原煤日产收缩，短期 恢复较为缓慢。本周市场情绪不及上周，主流大矿线上竞拍成交 涨跌互现，主力煤种目前暂稳，整体表现窄幅波动。需求端，本 周部分焦企开启第六轮提涨，预计近期焦钢仍有博弈空间，现钢 厂当前利润尚可且开工高位，焦炭刚需支撑较强，后续需关注月 底华北区域焦钢限产政策情况。 投资策略：单边：区间操作为主 跨期套利：观望为主 焦化利润：观望为主 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 电话：400-822-1758 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 双焦期货周报 一、本周行情回顾 1、央行8月1 ...

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 日期 2025 年 8 月 6 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 每日报告 | | | | | 表1：8月5日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、手、亿元） | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | J2509 | 1585 | 1585.5 | 1626 | 1551 ...

市场情绪降温 盘面回调明显 摘 要： 行情回顾：本周国内市场炼焦煤价格延续震荡偏强走势，不 过涨幅有所收窄，本周涨幅多在50-100元/吨。焦炭价格连续提 涨落地，第四轮提涨于28日落地，累计涨幅达200-220元/吨。 基本面分析：供应端，本周部分地区受查超产叠加月底完成 生产任务以及井下条件等因素影响，原煤日产小幅减少，但整体 炼焦煤需求韧性较强，煤矿去库明显。需求端，铁水产量小幅回 落，但仍在高位，焦炭第四轮提涨落地，主流焦企对焦炭提出第 五轮涨价，主流钢厂暂未回应，焦钢企业在高生产负荷、库存消 耗稳定的情况下，对原料煤的采购需求保持刚性，后期需关注煤 矿及焦钢企业开工变化。 投资策略：单边：区间操作为主 跨期套利：观望为主 焦化利润：观望为主 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 电话：400-822-1758 双焦期货周度报告 2025年08月04日 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 双焦期货周报 一、本周行情回顾 本周国内市 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views Coke - Supply: The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, improving coke enterprises' profits. Coke enterprise production has increased month - on - month, while steel mill coke production has decreased slightly, with total coke production rising slightly. The second round of price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton will be implemented this Tuesday [5][13]. - Demand: Last week, hot metal production unexpectedly increased, remaining at a relatively high level, providing strong support for coke demand. As of July 18, the daily average hot metal production was 2.4244 million tons (+2630) [5][21]. - Inventory: The rising futures market has stimulated downstream replenishment. Coke enterprise inventories have decreased, steel mill inventories have increased, and port inventories have decreased month - on - month, resulting in a decline in total coke inventories [5][25]. - Conclusion: Driven by strong macro sentiment and improved fundamentals, a short - term long strategy is recommended. The coke index is expected to trade in the range of 1500 - 1540 - 1670 [5]. Coking Coal - Supply: Previously shut - down coal mines have gradually resumed production, but environmental inspections are still affecting output, leading to a slow recovery in domestic coal production. Mongolian coal customs clearance has gradually recovered after the Mongolian National Day [6][42]. - Demand: Coke production has increased month - on - month but remains at a historically low level, providing moderately weak support for coking coal demand in the short term [6][50]. - Inventory: Rising coking coal futures and spot prices have stimulated speculative demand and downstream replenishment. Coal mine inventories have continued to decline, while coke enterprise and steel mill coking coal inventories have increased month - on - month, with port inventories slightly decreasing and total coking coal inventories increasing [6][61]. - Conclusion: Driven by strong macro sentiment, the futures market has risen, leading to a significant improvement in spot sales and a joint increase in futures and spot prices. A short - term long strategy is recommended. The coking coal index is expected to trade in the range of 930 - 1060 [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coke Supply - Coke enterprise production has increased month - on - month, while steel mill coke production has decreased slightly, with total coke production rising slightly. As of July 18, the daily average production of all - sample coking plants was 642,100 tons (+130), and the daily average production of 247 steel mill coking plants was 470,900 tons (-100), with a total production of 1.113 million tons (+30) [13]. Profit - After the first round of price increase, coke enterprises' profits have recovered. As of July 18, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 43 yuan/ton (+20) [17]. Demand - Hot metal production unexpectedly increased, remaining at a relatively high level, providing strong support for coke demand. As of July 18, the daily average hot metal production was 2.4244 million tons (+2630); the weekly total production of five major steel products was 8.6819 million tons (-4530); the steel mill profitability rate was 60.17% (+0.43); the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.89% (-0.99); and the blast furnace start - up rate was 83.46% (+0.31) [21]. Inventory - Coke enterprise inventories have decreased, steel mill inventories have increased, and port inventories have decreased month - on - month, resulting in a decline in total coke inventories. As of July 18, the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 875,500 tons (-55,300); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.3899 million tons (+11,900); the total inventory of four major ports was 1.9911 million tons (-9700); and the total coke inventory was 9.2565 million tons (-53,100) [25]. Inventory Available Days - The inventory available days of steel mill coke have decreased month - on - month. The inventory available days of 247 steel mill sample coking plants were 11.46 days (-0.18) [29]. Basis - As of July 18, the warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1401 yuan/ton. The basis of the January contract was - 162, the basis of the May contract was - 197, and the basis of the September contract was - 117. There is currently no basis - driven opportunity [32]. Calendar Spread - As of July 18, the spread between the September - January contracts was - 45, and the spread between the January - May contracts was - 35 [36]. Coking Coal Supply - Domestic coal production is recovering slowly due to environmental inspections, and Mongolian coal customs clearance is gradually resuming. As of July 18, the daily average production of 523 sample mines was 1.9288 million tons (+10,500), with an operating rate of 86.07% (+0.55); the daily average production of coal preparation plants was 53.38 tons (+0.79), with an operating rate of 62.85% (+0.53) [42]. Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance - Mongolian coal customs clearance has gradually recovered after the Mongolian National Day [46]. Demand - Coke production has increased month - on - month but remains at a historically low level, providing moderately weak support for coking coal demand in the short term. As of July 18, the total inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 7.9019 million tons (+377,500), with available days of 11.56 days (+0.53), corresponding to a daily coking coal consumption of 683,600 tons (+1400); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.911 million tons (+81,700), with available days of 12.63 days (+0.15), corresponding to a daily consumption of 626,400 tons (-1000); and the total daily consumption was 1.3099 million tons (+400) [50]. Coal Preparation Plant Inventory - As of July 18, the raw coal inventory of coal preparation plants was 2.9869 million tons (-20,800), and the clean coal inventory was 1.9154 million tons (-55,300) [54]. Inventory - Coal mine inventories have decreased significantly, while coke enterprise and steel mill inventories have increased. As of July 18, the port inventory was 321,500 tons (-140); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.911 million tons (+81,700); the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 9.2911 million tons (+367,600); the clean coal inventory of 532 sample mines was 3.3907 million tons (-381,100); and the total coking coal inventory was 23.8078 million tons (+66,800). The available days of coking coal for 230 independent coking plants were 11.56 days (+0.53), and the available days of coking coal inventory for 247 steel enterprises were 12.63 days (+0.15) [61]. Basis - As of July 18, the warehouse - receipt price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal in Tangshan was 918 yuan/ton. The basis of the January contract was - 98, the basis of the May contract was - 114, and the basis of the September contract was - 49. There is currently no basis - driven opportunity [66]. Calendar Spread - As of July 18, the spread between the September - January contracts was - 49.5, and the spread between the January - May contracts was - 16. There is currently no calendar - spread opportunity [70].

Group 1 - The main contracts for coking coal and coke have seen significant price increases, with coking coal rising by 7.24% to 1000 yuan per ton and coke increasing by 5.28% to 1606 yuan per ton [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic coking coal and coke prices showed a stable and slightly upward trend this week. The supply of coking coal was tight, with slow recovery. The iron - water output remained at a high level. The market sentiment was positive, and the futures market was expected to fluctuate in the short term. Investment strategies included mainly range - bound operations for single - side trading, and a wait - and - see approach for inter - period arbitrage and coking profit [2][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The prices of domestic coking coal and coke were stable with a slight upward trend. On Friday, some coke enterprises in Hebei proposed the first - round price increase. The prices of different types of coke increased by 70 - 95 yuan/ton. Some regions saw coking coal price increases of 30 - 100 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - President Xi Jinping pointed out the development direction of the coal industry during an inspection in Shanxi, aiming to build a new energy system [6]. - In June 2025, China's PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month, while CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year and decreased by 0.1% month - on - month [6]. - From January to June, the cumulative transaction area of first - and second - hand housing in Shanghai increased by 17% year - on - year, with second - hand housing increasing by 24% [6]. - In the first half of 2025, the production and sales of automobiles exceeded 15 million, with new energy vehicles growing significantly. In June, the production and sales of automobiles also showed year - on - year growth [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Coal mines in Changzhi had reduced production due to relocation, and many mines in Shaanxi were under maintenance. The overall supply was tight. The iron - water output was around 240 tons this week, remaining at a high level [2]. - Demand side: Coke production decreased slightly, downstream coke enterprises actively replenished stocks, the trading atmosphere of coking coal was good, and coal mine inventories continued to decline but at a slower pace [33]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Supply: Some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have resumed production, but there are still new production cuts in other areas of Shanxi, and environmental inspections in Inner Mongolia are getting stricter. The supply recovery is slow [33]. - Import: The Ganqimaodu Port was closed this week and will resume on July 16th, with an average daily clearance of 744 vehicles during the previous four - day clearance [33]. - Investment strategies: Range - bound operations for single - side trading, wait - and - see for inter - period arbitrage and coking profit [2][33].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black sector (coking coal and coke) is "oscillating bullish" [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - On Friday, the coking coal main contract Jm2509 closed at 913.0, up 1.78% from the day - session opening; the coke main contract J2509 closed at 1519.5, up 1.50% from the day - session opening. The first round of coke price increase this week is expected to be implemented. With the market news of crude steel production restrictions, downstream finished products are favorable, steel mills have good profits, and there are more bottom - fishing behaviors by traders, so the spot price of coking coal continues to rise. In the short term, there is still an expectation of 1 - 2 rounds of coke price increases, and both coking coal and coke will continue to run bullishly. It is not recommended to short the near - month contract as the spread between near - and far - month contracts is shrinking. Positive arbitrage can be tried, and a unilateral position is advised to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, the coking coal main contract Jm2509 closed at 913.0, up 1.78% from the day - session opening; the coke main contract J2509 closed at 1519.5, up 1.50% from the day - session opening [1] Important Information - This week, the output of five major steel products was 872.72 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.44 million tons; the total inventory of five major steel products was 1339.58 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.35 million tons; the consumption of five major steel products was 873.07 million tons, a decrease of 1.4% [1] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 85.5%, a week - on - week increase of 1.7%. The daily average output of raw coal was 1.918 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.8 million tons, and the raw coal inventory was 642.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22.5 million tons [1] - On July 11, the price of top - charged coke in major production areas such as Shanxi and Inner Mongolia increased by up to 95 yuan/ton, and the prices of tamping wet - quenched coke and dry - quenched coke increased by 70 yuan/ton and 75 yuan/ton respectively [1] Market Logic - On Friday night session, both coking coal and coke continued to see significant position - increasing, but the increase was relatively limited. The first round of coke price increase this week will be implemented. With the market news of crude steel production restrictions, downstream finished products are favorable, steel mills have good profits, and there are more bottom - fishing behaviors by traders, so the spot price of coking coal continues to rise. In the short term, there is still an expectation of 1 - 2 rounds of coke price increases, and both coking coal and coke will continue to run bullishly [1] Trading Strategy - The spread between near - and far - month contracts is shrinking. It is not recommended to short the near - month contract. Positive arbitrage can be tried, and a unilateral position is advised to wait and see [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the coking coal price in the domestic market fluctuated, and the coke market continued its weak performance. The fourth round of coke price cut is expected to be implemented next Monday. After consecutive contractions in supply, market sentiment has improved, but with the upcoming fourth round of coke price cut, the market remains cautious, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2][5][33] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - The coking coal price in the domestic market fluctuated, and the coke market continued its weak performance. Some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin reduced the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at zero o'clock on June 23, 2025. The fourth round of coke price cut is expected to be implemented next Monday [2][5] 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial News - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. From January to May, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year. In May, the crude oil output of industrial enterprises above designated size was 18.47 million tons, a 1.8% year - on - year increase, and the coal output was 4.0 billion tons, a 4.2% year - on - year increase. China's crude steel output in May was 86.55 million tons, a 6.9% year - on - year decrease; pig iron output was 74.11 million tons, a 3.3% year - on - year decrease; and steel output was 127.43 million tons, a 3.4% year - on - year increase [7] - From January to May, national real estate development investment was 3.6234 trillion yuan, a 10.7% year - on - year decrease. The housing construction area decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, the new construction area decreased by 22.8% year - on - year, and the completed area decreased by 17.3% year - on - year [8] - The state has allocated 162 billion yuan of the 300 billion yuan consumer goods trade - in support funds, and the remaining funds will be allocated in an orderly manner [8] - The June Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged, with the 5 - year LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3% [8] - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%, the fourth decision to keep the rate unchanged since January. The dot - plot shows two expected interest rate cuts in 2025, and 25 - basis - point cuts in 2026 and 2027 [8] - According to Mysteel, mainstream steel mills in the Tangshan market plan to reduce the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at zero o'clock on June 23, 2025. Some steel mills in Xingtai also made the same price cuts [9] 3. Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia that previously halted or reduced production due to environmental protection and other reasons have not resumed production, and there are new停产 mines this week, resulting in a continued slight reduction in supply. The average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased by 85 vehicles, remaining at a low level [33] - On the demand side, coke production decreased slightly. After the previous continuous decline in coal prices, some resources became more cost - effective, leading to appropriate purchases by downstream coking enterprises and intermediate links, which alleviated the inventory pressure on upstream coal mines. This week, the iron water output was 2.4218 million tons, a 0.57 - million - ton increase from last week [2][33] 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Investment strategies include mainly conducting range operations for single - side trading, adopting a wait - and - see approach for inter - period arbitrage, and also waiting and seeing for coking profit [3][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Weak Oscillation" rating for the coking coal and coke sectors in the black industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The delay of the tariff policy has boosted the sentiment in the black industry, but now the sentiment - based trading is basically completed. The spot prices of coking coal and coke are running weakly. Although the apparent demand of the five major steel products has rebounded this week, the pig iron output has begun to decline, and steel mills still have the intention to further lower the prices [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Market Review - The Jm2509 contract closed at 883.0, down 1.29% from the previous trading day's close. The J2505 contract closed at 1472.0, down 0.67% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, the Jm2509 contract closed at 864.5, down 2.10% from the day - session close, and the J2509 contract closed at 1456.0, down 1.09% from the day - session close [1] Important Information - This week, the supply of the five major steel products was 883.69 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.82 million tons or 0.7%. The total inventory of the five major steel products was 1430.66 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45.41 million tons or 3.1%. The weekly consumption of the five major products was 913.76 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8%. Among them, the consumption of building materials increased by 16.2% week - on - week, and the consumption of plates increased by 5.2% week - on - week [1] - This week, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples was 89.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7%. The daily average output of raw coal was 200.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5 million tons, and the raw coal inventory was 606.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 27.0 million tons [1] - Today, the first round of price cuts for coke began to be implemented, with a reduction of 50 - 55 yuan/ton [1] Market Logic - The delay of the tariff policy has boosted the sentiment in the black industry, but now the sentiment - based trading is basically completed. The spot prices of coking coal and coke are running weakly. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi has been lowered again, there are more unsuccessful online auctions, and the transaction prices are mainly decreasing. The first round of price cuts for coke has basically been implemented. Although the apparent demand of the five major steel products has rebounded this week, the pig iron output has begun to decline. Steel mills still have the intention to further lower the prices. Attention should be paid to China's direct or indirect steel export data [1] Trading Strategy - In the short term, coking coal will mainly fluctuate widely in the range of 850 - 900, and coke will fluctuate in the range of 1440 - 1500. It will face pressure and fall back above the range. Short - term short positions can be held continuously [1]