期货热点追踪 夜盘双焦期货价格继续上涨，焦煤领涨期市，机构分析表示，双焦基本面未有明显改善，上方压力明 显，若供应端没有实质性减产，后续双焦价格仍有下跌空间。 相关链接 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, announced by President Trump, has led to a significant drop in international oil prices, which in turn affects the coal market, particularly coking coal and coke prices [1][4]. Macroeconomic Summary - Social financing in May remains weak, with low financing demand from households and enterprises, supported only by government bond financing. The State Council has reiterated the need to stabilize the real estate market, with cities like Guangzhou fully lifting purchase restrictions [1]. - Since April, various cities have started using housing vouchers as a means to promote sales, marking a significant policy shift. Investor sentiment towards the real estate market remains pessimistic, making a short-term turnaround difficult [1]. Industry Policy Summary - Discussions on implementing production limits for crude steel are advancing, but steel mills show reluctance to reduce output due to acceptable profit margins [1]. Supply and Demand Summary - Last week, steel production increased while inventory decreased, with total apparent demand for five major steel products rising by 160,800 tons to 8,841,800 tons. The profitability of 247 steel mills rose to 59.31%, reducing the incentive for production cuts [2]. - Daily pig iron production has ended a five-week decline, increasing by 5,700 tons to 2,421,800 tons, indicating persistent demand for coke. However, independent coking enterprises have seen a decline in capacity utilization due to environmental policies and equipment maintenance, leading to an over 8% drop in coke inventory [2]. Market Outlook Summary - According to Xinda Futures, with the end of the Israel-Iran conflict, the short-term disturbances in oil prices will dissipate, allowing coking coal to return to its own market logic. If coking coal remains resilient in the face of falling oil prices, there is potential for future price increases [4]. - The fourth round of price reductions for coke has been implemented, putting pressure on the spot market. The supply side of coke remains relatively loose despite some improvements [2][4]. Technical Analysis Summary - In the technical analysis, the 4-hour K-line for both coking coal and coke is positioned below the 20 and 60 moving averages, indicating a trend of oscillation and suggesting caution in trading strategies [5][6].

Group 1: Market Trends - The domestic futures market saw a collective rise in coking coal and coke prices on June 23, with coking coal up 1.25% to 807 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 100 yuan since the beginning of the month, while coke fell 0.22% to 1385 yuan/ton, also up by 100 yuan from the start of June [1] - The fourth round of price reductions for coke has been implemented, leading to a weak price trend in the market despite the recent rebound in futures prices [1][2] - The overall coking coal market is experiencing a downward trend due to sufficient supply and low demand from coking plants, which are maintaining low inventory strategies [2] Group 2: Profitability and Production - As of June 19, the profitability of coking plants is at the breakeven point, with profits of 33 yuan/ton in Shandong, 18 yuan/ton in Hebei, and 17 yuan/ton in Shanxi [3] - The steel mills are experiencing improved profitability, with profits for steel billets increasing by 35 yuan/ton to 192 yuan/ton and rebar profits rising by 31.4 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton [3] - The operating rate of independent coking enterprises has decreased to 74.14%, while the operating rate of blast furnaces has slightly increased to 83.54%, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance in the black industry chain [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for the second half of 2025 suggests that the rebound in coal and coke prices will depend on market expectations regarding supply-demand balance, with potential disruptions expected due to stricter safety inspections and upstream profit pressures [5] - The expected price range for coking coal and coke futures contracts in the second half of the year is projected to be between 650-1050 yuan/ton and 1150-1500 yuan/ton, respectively [5]

双焦期货周度报告 2025年06月23日 上游停止累库 情绪有所好转 摘 要： 行情回顾：本周国内市场炼焦煤价格震荡运行、焦炭市场延 续弱势运行。周五河北、天津地区部分钢厂对湿熄焦炭下调50元 /吨、干熄焦炭下调55元/吨，2025年6月23日零点执行，第四轮 焦炭提降预计下周一落地。 基本面分析：产地端，本周虽有部分新增停产矿井，但山西 部分因安全原因停产煤矿复产，叠加部分煤矿井下条件改善，产 量增加。晋中等地前期主动停产煤矿开始复产，山西炼焦煤产量 本周开始恢复，山西煤矿库存已开始去化。需求端，本周焦炭开 启第四轮降价，独立焦化和钢厂环节维持厂内低库存状态运行， 原料端价格持续让利，终端利润尚好，本周铁水产量 242.18万 吨，环比上周增加0.57万吨。 投资策略：单边：区间操作为主 跨期套利：观望为主 焦化利润：观望为主 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 电话：400-822-1758 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 双焦 ...

近日，双焦期货价格持续下行。5月23日夜盘，焦煤期货主力2509合约低开低走，盘中一度下探至800元/吨，创下 近9年新低；焦炭期货主力2509合约则一度下探至1376元/吨，创下近8年新低。 "双焦价格创近年来新低，主要还是自身供需基本面出现问题。今年春节后，煤矿开工率快速回升，同比明显高于 去年同期水平。根据国家统计局数据，1—4月份，规模以上工业原煤产量15.8亿吨，同比增长6.6%，焦煤精煤产 量也同步走高。"广发期货黑色首席分析师周敏波接受记者采访时表示。 焦煤期货年内跌35% 据了解，今年年初至今，焦煤主力2509合约跌幅达35.25%，焦炭主力2509合约跌幅达26.84%。对此，海通期货分 析师魏亚如在接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示，从2023年四季度开始，双焦价格便进入持续下行的通道。当时 整个宏观环境转弱，带动房地产进入下行周期，进而影响黑色系品种持续下行。 与此同时，从焦煤的供给端来看，国内焦煤生产以及进口均维持宽松的格局，供应端的宽松导致上游库存持续走 高，焦煤价格因此持续走弱。焦煤作为生产焦炭的原料，其价格持续走弱，对焦炭价格的成本端有一定的拖累。 不过，光大期货黑色团队表示，由于铁 ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 5 月 16 日星期五 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 Jm2509 合约收于 883.0，环比上一交易日收盘下跌 1.29%。J2505 合约收于 1472.0，环 | | | | | 比上一交易日收盘下跌 0.67%。夜盘方面，Jm2509 合约收于 864.5，环比日盘收盘下跌 | | | | | 2.10%，J2509 合约收于 1456.0，环比日盘收盘下跌 1.09%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、本周，五大钢材品种供应 883.69 万吨，周环比下降 5.82 万吨，降幅 0.7%。五大钢 | | | | | 材总库存 1430.66 万吨，周环比降 45.41 万吨，降幅 3.1%。五大品种周消费量为 913.76 | | | | | 万吨，环比增加 8%；其中建材消费环比增 16.2% ...

双焦期货周度报告 2025年05月12日 上游库存累积 盘面表现不佳 摘 要： 行情回顾：本周炼焦煤价格大部分跌幅20-30元/吨，9日国 内市场炼焦煤震荡偏弱运行，临汾安泽市场炼焦煤价格下跌10元 /吨，低硫主焦精煤A9、S0.5、V20、G85出厂价现金含税 1270元 /吨。本周国内市场焦炭价格暂稳运行，目前焦炭第二轮提涨希 望基本落空，市场传下周钢厂发起焦炭价格提降。 基本面分析：现阶段下游钢厂开工尚可，铁水产量高位运 行，焦炭需求仍有刚性支撑，然近日钢坯价格震荡偏弱运行，钢 坯价格下调的影响下，市场预期谨慎观望情绪较浓；炼焦煤产量 仍然偏高，市场炼焦煤库存仍在高位，供需双强局面下，炼焦煤 基本面矛盾不突出，市场价格震荡偏稳运行。情绪面影响较大， 钢材消费淡季，钢厂后续检修减产预期明显，下游对原料采购消 极。但当前钢厂有盈利，铁水产量目前仍处于高位，短期内对原 料价格支撑较好，炼焦煤大幅下跌可能较小。 投资策略：单边：逢高做空与区间操作相结合 跨期套利： 观望为主 焦化利润：观望为主 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3 ...