燃料油期货(FU2605
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大越期货燃料油早报-20260225
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-02-25 02:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has weakened due to sufficient supply and weak demand. The 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil spot price spread has been falling for three consecutive trading days after reaching a nearly 11 - month high in the week ending February 20. The spot spread of Singapore's 0.5% sulfur marine fuel is at a premium of $1.88 per ton, the highest since January 29. The market is expected to see the FU2605 contract trade in the range of 2890 - 2940 and the LU2605 contract in the range of 3450 - 3490. The行情 is driven by the resonance of geopolitical risks on the supply side and neutral demand [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is weakening due to supply and demand factors. The 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil spot price spread is falling, while the 0.5% sulfur marine fuel in Singapore has a high spot premium. The market is expected to trade within specific ranges for different contracts [3]. 3.2 Multi - Short Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: Iran's situation is unstable; China's import quota is issued [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The optimism of the demand side remains to be verified; the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4]. - **Market Driver**: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Supply - Demand**: Asian high - sulfur fuel oil has sufficient supply and weak demand, weakening the market structure. The 0.5% sulfur marine fuel in Singapore has a strong spot premium [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is -$19 per ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is -$28 per ton, with the spot being nearly at par with the futures [3]. - **Inventory**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of February 11 was 26.379 million barrels, an increase of 0.85 million barrels [3]. - **Market Trend**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward [3]. - **Main Position**: High - sulfur main position is short, with short positions increasing; low - sulfur main position is short, with short positions decreasing [3]. 3.4 Spread Data - Not provided in the given content 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory has been increasing in recent weeks. As of February 11, 2026, it was 26.379 million barrels, an increase of 0.85 million barrels compared to the previous period [3][8].