CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2026年3月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货16800，基差-445 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比增加，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格20日线上运行 偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净多，多增 偏多 6、预期：市场进入偏空季节，保持偏空思路 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、国内经济指标偏空 • 2、贸易摩擦 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退、国内经济增长 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of the coking coal market is expected to tighten significantly as private coal mines in production areas gradually enter the state of shutdown and holiday. The market is characterized by weak supply and demand, and the prices of coking coal and coke are expected to remain stable in the short term [2][6] - For coking coal, factors such as rising hot metal production and limited supply increase are positive, while factors like slowdown in procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices are negative [4] - For coke, rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rate are positive factors, while factors such as squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - draft of restocking demand are negative [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Views - **Coking Coal**: The supply is expected to tighten, the market is in a state of weak supply and demand. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Total sample inventory increased by 570,000 tons compared to last week. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with a decrease in short positions. It is expected that the short - term price will remain stable [2] - **Coke**: Coke enterprises maintain normal production, but the overall market demand is average, and inventory pressure is emerging. The basis shows that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. Total sample inventory increased by 180,000 tons compared to last week. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with an increase in long positions. It is expected that the short - term price will remain stable [6][7] Price - **Imported Coking Coal**: On February 9, 2026 (17:30), the prices of various imported coking coals from Russia and Australia at different ports are provided, with some prices showing fluctuations [10] - **Port Metallurgical Coke**: On February 9, 2026 (17:30), the prices of various port metallurgical cokes from different origins and of different grades are provided, with some prices rising or remaining unchanged [11] Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 2.73 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons compared to last week; coke port inventory is 201,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons compared to last week [21] - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 1.095 million tons, an increase of 600,000 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 45,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons compared to last week [25] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 824,000 tons, an increase of 100,000 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 692,000 tons, an increase of 140,000 tons compared to last week [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, as the Spring Festival approaches, polyester production cuts increase, terminals gradually shut down, PTA supply - demand accumulates, and the spot market negotiation is light. It is expected that the pre - holiday PTA spot price will fluctuate with the cost side, and the spot basis will fluctuate in a range [5]. - For MEG, due to the unloading of some ocean - going vessels this week, the visible inventory of ethylene glycol will still maintain an upward trend at the beginning of this week, and the arrival of foreign ships will be decentralized in the second half of the month. There is a strong seasonal inventory accumulation expectation in January - February, but the medium - term supply - demand structure will moderately improve. The import volume in the second quarter is expected to be revised down, and the supply stability in Iran should be monitored. The absolute price of ethylene glycol is at a low level, with limited downside space and buying support at low levels. It is expected that the pre - holiday market will mainly consolidate in a range [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1前日回顾 (Previous Day Review) - No specific content provided for this section. 3.2每日提示 (Daily Tips) - PTA: On Friday, the negotiation for February middle - upper was at a discount of 60 - 85 yuan/ton to the 05 contract, and there was a transaction for late February at a discount of 55 yuan/ton to the 05 contract, with the price negotiation range at 5015 - 5135 yuan/ton. The mainstream spot basis today is 05 - 72. The spot is 5090 yuan/ton, the 05 contract basis is - 76, with the futures price higher than the spot price. PTA factory inventory is 3.74 days, a 0.16 - day increase compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net long position has changed from short to long [5][6]. - MEG: On Friday, the price of ethylene glycol rebounded slightly from a low level, and the market negotiation was average. The spot market fluctuated widely. Today's spot transactions were at a discount of 115 - 120 yuan/ton to the 05 contract, and next - week's spot transactions were at a discount of 105 - 108 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. It rebounded slightly due to plant news during the session, but the increase was limited. The spot is 3630 yuan/ton, the 05 contract basis is - 113, with the futures price higher than the spot price. The total inventory in East China is 83.1 tons, a 4.83 - ton increase compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position has decreased [8][9]. 3.3今日关注 (Today's Focus) - No specific content provided for this section. 3.4基本面数据 (Fundamental Data) 3.4.1 PX Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the PX supply - demand situation from September 2025 to June 2026, including production, import, demand, inventory change, domestic utilization rate, and balance with polyester [12]. 3.4.2 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It presents the monthly balance of PTA from October 2025 to September 2026, covering total production, import, export, consumption, surplus, year - on - year changes in production and consumption, and cumulative year - on - year changes [13]. 3.4.3 Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It details the monthly balance of ethylene glycol from October 1, 2025, to September 1, 2026, including production, import, consumption, surplus, and various year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes [14]. 3.5影响因素总结 (Summary of Influencing Factors) - **Likely Positive Factors**: The 700,000 - ton plant of Gulei Petrochemical will be shut down for maintenance from early March, expected to last until around the end of April [10]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The 1,000,000 - ton PTA plant of Nengtou resumed operation last week [11]. 3.6价格相关 (Price - Related) - It includes historical price charts of PET bottle chips (market price, production margin, operating rate, inventory), PTA (month - to - month spread, basis), MEG (month - to - month spread, basis), and spot spreads (TA - EG, p - xylene processing spread) [16][17][18][20][23][26][29][32][36][39]. 3.7库存分析 (Inventory Analysis) - It shows the historical inventory data of PTA (factory inventory), MEG (port inventory), PET chips (factory inventory), and polyester products (DTY, FDY, short - fiber inventory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms) [42][43][44][46]. 3.8聚酯上下游开工 (Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates) - **Upstream**: It includes the historical operating rates of PTA, p - xylene, and ethylene glycol [53][54][56]. - **Downstream**: It shows the historical capacity utilization rates of polyester and the operating rates of chemical fiber textile enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [57][58]. 3.9利润情况 (Profit Situation) - It presents the historical profit data of PTA (processing fee), MEG (production margins of different production methods), polyester fiber short - fiber, and polyester fiber long - filament (DTY, POY, FDY production margins) [59][60][61][64][65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side shows that the domestic refineries' asphalt production is decreasing, which reduces supply pressure. The demand is currently below the historical average level. The cost side has the support of rising crude oil prices in the short - term. It is expected that the asphalt 2603 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3393 - 3455 in the short - term [8][9]. - The factors are mixed. The positives include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support and the reduction of supply pressure due to refinery production cuts. The negatives are the lack of demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward trend in demand with the strengthening expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In February 2026, the domestic refineries' asphalt production is 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of the sample is 27.325%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The national sample enterprises' shipment is 214,450 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.80%. The sample enterprises' production is 456,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.20%. The estimated maintenance volume of the sample enterprises' devices is 1.022 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%. Refineries have reduced production this week, and supply pressure may decrease next week [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 25.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 is 3.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 is 5.7161%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 14%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 18%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 128.13 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 85.30%. The weekly delayed - coking profit of Shandong refineries is 16.1943 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 81.75%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support [9]. - **Basis**: On January 30th, the Shandong spot price is 3,260 yuan/ton, and the 03 - contract basis is - 164 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 892,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%. The refinery inventory is 602,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14%. The port diluted - asphalt inventory is 840,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 90.91%. The social inventory continues to accumulate, the refinery inventory continues to decline, and the port inventory continues to accumulate [9]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the 03 - contract futures price closes above the MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position decreases [9]. - **Expectation**: Refineries have reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is difficult to boost, and overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish. Inventory continues to decline. Crude oil strengthens, and cost support strengthens in the short - term. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, and the asphalt 2603 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3393 - 3455 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Price Overview**: The report provides the price, change, and change rate of different asphalt contracts (such as 12 - contract, 11 - contract, etc.), as well as the price, change, and change rate of asphalt in different regions (such as North China, South China, etc.), downstream demand开工率, asphalt coking profit, weekly shipment volume, weekly production, and inventory data [16]. - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2026 [19][20]. - **Spread Analysis**: It includes the spread trends of the main contracts (1 - 6, 6 - 12), the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil, the crude - oil cracking spread, and the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [22][25][28][32]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Regional Market Price Trend**: It shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt prices in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026 [35][36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026 [37][38]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026 [40][42]. - **Supply - side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt shipment volume from 2020 to 2026 [43][44]. - **Diluted - Asphalt Port Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of domestic diluted - asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 [46][47]. - **Production**: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 to 2026 [49][50]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production**: It shows the historical trends of Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026 [52][54]. - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical trends of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [55][57]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2026 [58][59]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2026 [61][62]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and refinery inventory) from 2019 to 2026 [64][65]. - **Social Inventory and Refinery Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and refinery inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2026 [68][69]. - **Refinery Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: It shows the historical trends of the refinery inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2026 [72][73]. - **Import and Export Situation**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2019 to 2026 [75][76][79]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [81][82]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It shows the historical trends of apparent asphalt consumption from 2019 to 2025 [84][85]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 [87][88]. - **New Local Special Bonds**: It shows the historical trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2025 [89]. - **Infrastructure Investment Completion**: It shows the year - on - year change trends of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024 [89]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt - concrete paver sales volume, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales volume, and road - roller sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [91][92][94]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: It shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2026 [96][97]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use**: It shows the historical trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2026 [99][100]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation**: It shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt capacity utilization rate, shoe - material TPR capacity utilization rate, road - modified asphalt capacity utilization rate, and waterproofing - membrane capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2026 [102][103][104]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly asphalt production, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, refinery inventory, and diluted - asphalt port inventory from October 2024 to January 2026 [106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Coking Coal**: The current production of coking enterprises is still below expectations, and the actual demand for raw coal has not significantly improved. With the decline in hot metal production this week and weak rigid demand, the downstream market mainly replenishes inventory as needed. Considering the general demand for downstream finished products and the decline in steel mill profits, the downstream market has insufficient support for coking coal prices. It is expected that coking coal prices may remain stable in the short term [2]. - **Coke**: After the first round of coke price increase was finally implemented after a long - term game, the profit per ton of coke in coking plants has slightly increased. Most coking enterprises have maintained their previous operating rates, and coke supply is relatively stable. Under the background of weak demand, traders and steel mills are relatively cautious in purchasing, but the current transportation and shipment are smooth, and there is no obvious inventory pressure in the plants. It is expected that coke prices may remain stable and slightly strengthen in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Domestic coal mines maintain a stable production rhythm before the Spring Festival. Downstream winter storage and inventory replenishment are nearing completion, the purchase volume of coking coal is gradually decreasing, and the willingness of intermediate links to sell has increased. The market sentiment has slightly weakened. Recently, the online auction transactions have been average, with more price drops than increases. Coal mines with high prices have difficulty in selling, and some coal mines with slow price cuts still have price - make - up drops. However, since most coal mines have pre - sold orders and no inventory pressure, they have a strong willingness to hold prices. The evaluation is neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1180, and the basis is 24.5. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price. The evaluation is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 801000 tons, port inventory is 295000 tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 861000 tons, and the total sample inventory is 1957000 tons, a decrease of 21000 tons from last week. The evaluation is bullish [2]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average. The evaluation is neutral [3]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net short, and the short position is decreasing. The evaluation is bearish [3]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: After the first round of coke price increase was implemented, the profit per ton of coke in coking plants has slightly increased. Most coking enterprises have maintained their previous operating rates, and coke supply is relatively stable. Under the background of weak demand, traders and steel mills are relatively cautious in purchasing, but the current transportation and shipment are smooth, and there is no obvious inventory pressure in the plants. The evaluation is bullish [7]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1620, and the basis is - 101.5. The spot price is at a discount to the futures price. The evaluation is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 626000 tons, port inventory is 187000 tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 45000 tons, and the total sample inventory is 858000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons from last week. The evaluation is bullish [7]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average. The evaluation is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net long, and the long position is increasing. The evaluation is bullish [7]. 3.2 Price Coking Coal - On January 30 (17:30), the price of imported Russian coking coal at various ports is provided, such as the price of K4 main coking coal at Caofeidian Port, Jingtang Port, and Rizhao Port is 1300. The price of imported Australian coking coal at various ports is also provided, like the price of Heishui 1/3 coking coal at Caofeidian Port and Rizhao Port is 1230 [10]. Coke - On January 30 (17:30), the port metallurgical coke price index shows that the prices of various grades of metallurgical coke at different ports have different changes, such as the price of secondary metallurgical coke from Inner Mongolia at a certain port increased by 50 [11]. 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 295000 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1000 tons from last week [19]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 819300 tons, a decrease of 69200 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [23]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803800 tons, an increase of 4300 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626700 tons, a decrease of 13300 tons from last week [28]. 3.4 Other Indicators - **Coking Plant Capacity Utilization Rate**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprise samples nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - **Coking Coal**: The main - producing area coal mines are gradually resuming production, with a loose production expectation. Market activity has slightly recovered, and some coal prices have stopped falling and stabilized, with a slight upward - probing expectation for some mines. The short - term coking coal price is expected to remain stable. Although the profit of coking enterprises has declined, their production enthusiasm remains high, and there is still a certain rigid demand for raw material replenishment and winter storage [2]. - **Coke**: Driven by multiple positive factors, the futures market has continued to rebound. The supply - demand pattern of coke has gradually improved, and the cost support is expected to strengthen. The short - term coke price is expected to remain stable [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - **Coking Coal** - **Fundamentals**: Main - producing area coal mines are resuming production, market inquiries have increased, and some speculative demands have emerged. Coal mines are less willing to cut prices further, and some coal prices have stopped falling [2]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1200, and the basis is 4.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [2]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 1957 tons, a decrease of 21 tons from last week [2]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net long, with a decrease in long positions [2]. - **Expectation**: With the end of environmental protection and maintenance, some steel mills are resuming production, and the coking enterprises' demand for raw material replenishment and winter storage remains. The short - term price is expected to be stable [2]. - **Coke** - **Fundamentals**: Coke enterprises' shipment is good, steel mills' procurement enthusiasm has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The cost support has strengthened due to the stop - falling of some coal prices [6]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1630, and the basis is - 118, with the spot at a discount to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 858 tons, a decrease of 1 ton from last week [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net long, with a decrease in long positions [6]. - **Expectation**: Driven by multiple positive factors, the futures market has rebounded, and the supply - demand pattern has improved. The short - term price is expected to be stable [5]. Influencing Factors - **Coking Coal** - **Positive**: Iron - water production has increased, and supply is difficult to increase [4]. - **Negative**: Coking and steel enterprises have slowed down the procurement of raw coal, and steel prices are weak [4]. - **Coke** - **Positive**: Iron - water production and blast - furnace operating rate have increased [8]. - **Negative**: Steel mills' profit margins are squeezed, and the replenishment demand has been partially overdrawn [8]. Price The report provides the port metallurgical coke price index on January 9th (17:30), including prices of different grades of metallurgical coke from different origins at various ports [10]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [18]. - **Independent Coking Enterprises Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [22]. - **Steel Mills Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [27]. Other Data - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization of 230 independent coking enterprises in the country is 74.48% [40]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants in the country is 25 yuan [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply side: Last week's industrial silicon supply was 88,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week. Supply scheduling has decreased but remains at a high level. - Demand side: Last week's demand was 81,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.00%, showing a rise in demand. However, overall demand recovery is at a low level. - Cost side: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 2,874 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season. - Expectation: Industrial silicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,600 - 8,780 yuan/ton [3][4]. Polysilicon - Supply side: Last week's polysilicon output was 25,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39%. The scheduled output for December is predicted to be 113,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95%. Supply scheduling continues to decline. - Demand side: Downstream sectors such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have all seen a continuous decline in production, with overall demand showing a continuous recession. - Cost side: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,400 yuan/ton, with cost support remaining stable. - Expectation: Polysilicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 59,235 - 61,255 yuan/ton [7][8][9]. Overall Market - Bullish factors: Rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production. - Bearish factors: Slow recovery of post - holiday demand and a situation of strong supply and weak demand in downstream polysilicon. - Main logic: Capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment [13][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: 88,000 tons last week, flat week - on - week. - Demand: 81,000 tons last week, up 8.00% week - on - week. - Inventory: Social inventory is 553,000 tons, down 1.42% week - on - week; sample enterprise inventory is 192,500 tons, up 2.94% week - on - week; major port inventory is 138,000 tons, up 1.47% week - on - week. - Basis: On December 19th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract basis was 510 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the 05 contract price closed below MA20. - Main positions: Net short positions by the main players, with short positions decreasing [3][4]. Polysilicon - Supply: Output of 25,000 tons last week, down 0.39% week - on - week; December scheduled output of 113,500 tons, down 0.95% month - on - month. - Demand: Downstream production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is all in decline. - Cost: Average cost of N - type polysilicon is 38,600 yuan/ton, and production profit is 12,400 yuan/ton. - Basis: On December 19th, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract basis was - 7,845 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. - Inventory: Weekly inventory is 293,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week, at a historically high level. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the 05 contract price closed above MA20. - Main positions: Net short positions by the main players, with short positions decreasing [7][8][9]. 2. Industrial Silicon Market Overview - Futures closing prices: Most contracts showed an increase, with the largest increase of 0.64% in the 09 contract and a decrease of 0.06% in the 07 contract. - Basis: Most contracts showed a decline, with the largest decline of 8.11% in the 05 contract. - Warehouse receipts: The number of registered warehouse receipts was 9,019, an increase of 2.31% [16][17]. 3. Polysilicon Market Overview - Futures closing prices: All contracts showed an increase, with the largest increase of 2.29% in the 11 contract. - Basis: All contracts showed a decline, with the largest decline of 15.32% in the 02 contract. - Inventory: Weekly total inventory was 293,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week [19]. 4. Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Price Difference Trends The report shows the historical trends of the main contract basis of industrial silicon and the price difference between 421 and 553 silicon in East China [21][22]. 5. Polysilicon Disk Price Trends The report shows the historical trends of the main contract price, trading volume, and basis of polysilicon [24][25]. 6. Industrial Silicon Inventory - Delivery warehouse and port inventory: The report shows the historical trends of inventory in various regions and ports. - SMM sample enterprise inventory: The report shows the historical trends of inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan. - Registered warehouse receipt volume: The report shows the historical trends of the number of registered warehouse receipts [27][28][29]. 7. Industrial Silicon Output and Capacity Utilization Trends - SMM sample enterprise weekly output: The report shows the historical trends of output in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan. - Industrial silicon monthly output by specification: The report shows the historical trends of output of 421, non - oxygen - passing 553, oxygen - passing 553, and other types of silicon. - SMM sample enterprise capacity utilization: The report shows the historical trends of capacity utilization in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan [31][32][33]. 8. Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends The report shows the historical trends of cost and profit of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang [38][39]. 9. Industrial Silicon Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Weekly supply - demand balance: The report shows the historical trends of production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon. - Monthly supply - demand balance: The report shows the actual consumption, export volume, import volume, production, and supply - demand balance of industrial silicon from November 2024 to November 2025 [40][43][44]. 10. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - DMC price and production trends: The report shows the historical trends of DMC capacity utilization, profit, cost, output, and price. - Downstream price trends: The report shows the historical trends of prices of 107 rubber, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4. - Import - export and inventory trends: The report shows the historical trends of DMC import, export, and inventory [46][48][52]. 11. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Price and supply situation: The report shows the historical trends of waste aluminum recycling, social inventory, aluminum scrap import, aluminum alloy import - export, ADC12 price, and import cost - profit. - Output and production capacity trends: The report shows the historical trends of monthly output of primary aluminum - based and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, weekly operating rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots. - Demand (automobiles and wheels): The report shows the historical trends of automobile monthly output, sales, and aluminum alloy wheel export [56][58][61]. 12. Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Fundamental trends: The report shows the historical trends of polysilicon industry cost, price, inventory, output, operating rate, and demand. - Supply - demand balance sheet: The report shows the supply - demand balance of polysilicon from October 2024 to October 2025. - Silicon wafer trends: The report shows the historical trends of silicon wafer price, output, inventory, demand, and net export. - Battery cell trends: The report shows the historical trends of battery cell price, production, inventory, operating rate, and export. - Photovoltaic component trends: The report shows the historical trends of component price, inventory, output, and export. - Photovoltaic accessory trends: The report shows the historical trends of photovoltaic coating price, film import - export, glass output, export, high - purity quartz sand price, and solder strip import - export. - Component composition cost - profit trends (210mm): The report shows the cost - profit trends of silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in 210mm double - sided double - glass components. - Photovoltaic grid - connected power generation trends: The report shows the historical trends of national new power generation capacity, power generation composition, photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, and solar power generation [64][67][70].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the recent operation of PTA plants has been stable. Some polyester factories have made phased replenishments, driving the strengthening of the spot basis. The futures market fluctuates with the cost side. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate with the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to the oil price trend and downstream load [5]. - For MEG, at low prices, some domestic ethylene - based MEG plants have reduced their loads, and the weekly start - up rate has dropped below 70%. With the restart and load increase of Zhengdaikai, the start - up rate will moderately recover. The arrival of foreign MEG ships this week has returned to normal, and the upward trend of port inventory can be moderately alleviated. Fundamentally, MEG shows a loose balance due to supply contraction this month, but there is a lack of confidence and obvious driving force in the market under the medium - and long - term inventory accumulation expectation. It is expected that MEG will be adjusted at a low level in the near future, and attention should be paid to the cost side and plant changes [6]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - No relevant content provided 2.每日提示 - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average, the spot basis was relatively strong, and individual polyester factories replenished their stocks. Individual mainstream suppliers offered far - term cargoes. The December cargo was mainly traded at a discount of about 20 points to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range at 4600 - 4640. The current mainstream spot basis is at 01 - 20. The spot price is 4615, the 01 contract basis is - 13, and the futures price is at a premium. The PTA factory inventory is 3.86 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract is decreasing [5]. - MEG: On Monday, the ethylene glycol futures opened higher and traded in a narrow range, and the market negotiation was average. The price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated in a narrow range. The spot negotiation and trading this week and next week were carried out at a discount of 10 - 24 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and some traders were actively involved in spot quoting. In the US dollar market, the center of the ethylene glycol outer market strengthened. Recently arrived cargoes were traded at around 430 - 431 US dollars/ton, and individual traders participated in inquiries. The cargoes for shipment at the end of December and in January were negotiated at 434 - 435 US dollars/ton, and those for shipment at the end of January and in February were negotiated at around 438 - 439 US dollars/ton. The trading volume in the market was weak. The spot price is 3640, the 01 contract basis is - 11, and the futures price is at a premium. The total inventory in the East China region is 75.8 tons, an increase of 3.8 tons compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract is increasing [6]. 3.今日关注 - No relevant content provided 4.基本面数据 - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, PTA consumption, total demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the EG production, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, EG consumption, total demand, port inventory, and inventory change from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. - Price: It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester filaments, and polyester staple fibers from December 11 to December 15, 2025, as well as the changes in basis, spreads, and processing fees [12]. 5.影响因素总结 - Positive factors: A 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Zhejiang has been shut down for maintenance as planned recently, and it is expected to restart around the end of January. A 400,000 - ton/year MEG plant in South China has been shut down for maintenance today, with a preliminary planned maintenance period of about 10 days [8]. - Negative factors: A 250,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan has been restarted after a short - term shutdown in late November. A 260,000 - ton PX plant in Japan has been restarted as planned last weekend after a shutdown in early October [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the supply side, last week's lithium carbonate production was 21,865 tons, a 1.19% decrease from the previous week, but higher than the historical average. In November 2025, the production was 95,350 physical tons, and it is predicted to reach 98,210 physical tons next month, a 3.00% increase [8][9]. - On the demand side, last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 104,341 tons, a 1.71% increase from the previous week, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 19,361 tons, a 0.37% increase [8]. - In terms of cost, the cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 95,970 yuan/ton, a 2.68% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 2,927 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lepidolite was 94,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a loss of 4,016 yuan/ton. The production cost on the recycling side is generally higher than that on the ore side, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost on the salt lake side is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that on the ore side, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - The fundamentals are neutral; on December 2nd, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 94,400 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 2,160 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The smelter inventory was 24,324 tons, a 6.81% decrease from the previous week, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 41,984 tons, a 5.51% decrease from the previous week, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 49,660 tons, a 3.72% increase from the previous week, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 115,968 tons, a 2.07% decrease from the previous week, higher than the historical average, which is neutral. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish. The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [9]. - The expected price of lithium carbonate 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 92,980 - 96,740 yuan/ton. The bullish factors include the production cut plan of lepidolite manufacturers and the decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile. The bearish factor is the continuous high supply on the ore/salt lake side with limited decline [9][11][12]. - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - Supply: Last week's production decreased slightly, but November's production and next - month's predicted production increased. The cost of spodumene concentrate increased, while the cost of lepidolite remained unchanged. The salt lake side has cost advantages [8][9]. - Demand: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials sample enterprises increased last week [8]. - Cost: Most production methods are in a loss - making state, except for the salt lake side [9]. - Market Indicators: Fundamentals are neutral, basis is bearish, inventory is neutral, disk is bullish, and main positions are bearish [9]. - Expectation: The price will fluctuate within a certain range, affected by both bullish and bearish factors [9][11][12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Quotes Overview**: The prices of various lithium - related products, including lithium ore, lithium compounds, cathode materials, and lithium batteries, have different degrees of rise and fall. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) decreased by 0.50%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.05% [15]. - **Supply - Related Data** - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium ore has changed, and the production, import, and self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore in different periods are presented. The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore shows different situations in each month [24][25][28]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production, import, and export of lithium carbonate in different periods are provided, and the supply - demand balance also varies from month to month. The production and import of lithium carbonate in November 2025 increased compared with the previous period [30][31][37]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The capacity utilization rate, production, import, and export of lithium hydroxide are shown, and the supply - demand balance is also analyzed monthly [39][40][43]. - **Cost - Profit Data**: The cost, profit, and processing cost composition of various lithium compounds, such as spodumene, lepidolite, and recycled materials, are presented. Different production methods and materials have different cost - profit situations [45][46][48]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and total inventory, shows different trends of increase and decrease [53][55]. - **Demand - Related Data** - **Lithium Batteries**: The price, production, sales, and export of lithium batteries are presented, as well as the inventory and winning bids of energy - storage batteries [56][57][59]. - **Ternary Precursors**: The price, cost, profit, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors are analyzed [61][62][65]. - **Ternary Materials**: The price, cost, profit, production, and inventory of ternary materials are provided [67][68][71]. - **Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium**: The price, cost, profit, production, and inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium are presented [73][74][77]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: The production, sales, export, and penetration rate of new energy vehicles are shown, as well as the retail - wholesale ratio and dealer inventory index [81][82][86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side's production schedule has decreased and is near the historical average. The demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9025 - 9235 [3][5]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production schedule continues to decrease, and the overall demand shows a continuous decline. Cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 55555 - 57295 [7][8]. - The main logic of the market is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment. The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' shutdown and production - cut plans, while the main bearish factors are slow post - holiday demand recovery and strong supply but weak demand in downstream polysilicon [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 91,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 82,000 tons, a 2.50% increase from the previous week, showing an upward trend [5]. - Inventory: Polysilicon inventory is 281,000 tons (low), silicone inventory is 56,300 tons (low), and aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 74,600 tons (high). Social inventory increased by 0.36% to 550,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory increased by 1.01% to 179,600 tons, and main port inventory remained unchanged at 129,000 tons [5]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 2,874 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season [5]. - Basis: On November 28, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 220 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [5]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [5]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing [5]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the output was 24,000 tons, a 11.43% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule in December is predicted to be 113,500 tons, a 0.95% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 12.02GW, a 5.94% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory increased by 4.16%. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is generally in a state of continuous decline [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,810 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,190 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On November 28, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 4,125 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 281,000 tons, a 3.69% increase from the previous week, at a historical low [8]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [8]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts showed an upward trend, with increases ranging from 0.16% to 0.71%. Spot prices of various types of silicon remained mostly unchanged [15]. - Inventory: Social inventory increased by 0.36%, sample enterprise inventory increased by 1.01%, and main port inventory remained unchanged [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures prices of most contracts showed an upward trend, with increases ranging from 2.15% to 3.05%. Spot prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly unchanged [17]. - Inventory: The weekly total inventory increased by 3.69% to 281,000 tons [17]. 3.3 Downstream Market Analysis 3.3.1 Organic Silicon - DMC: The daily capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 74.84%, higher than the historical average. The weekly output increased by 3.58% to 49,200 tons, and the monthly inventory increased by 2.18% to 56,300 tons [15][45]. - Downstream products: Prices of 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 remained stable [47]. 3.3.2 Aluminum Alloy - Production: The monthly output of primary aluminum - based alloy ingots increased by 9.93% to 132,800 tons, and the monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42% to 645,000 tons [15]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.80% to 74,600 tons [15][16]. 3.3.3 Polysilicon - Industry cost: The cost showed a certain trend of change, with the average cost of the industry remaining stable at 38,810 yuan/ton [63]. - Silicon wafers: The weekly output decreased, and the inventory increased. The prices of various types of silicon wafers remained stable [17][69]. - Battery cells: The production and inventory of battery cells showed certain changes, and the prices of various types of battery cells remained mostly stable [17][72]. - Components: The monthly output decreased, and the domestic and European inventories decreased. The prices of various types of components remained stable [17][75].