交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年8月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 6、预期：LME库存仓单继续减少；上期所仓单保持高位；沪锌ZN2510：震 荡盘整。 8月22日期货交易所锌期货行情 1、基本面：外媒6月18日消息， 世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据 报告显示，2025年4月, 全球锌板产量为115.3万吨，消费量为113.02万吨, 供应过剩2.27万吨。1-4月，全球锌板产量为445.14万吨,消费量为450.79 万吨，供应短缺5.65万吨。4月,全球锌板产量为107.22万吨。1-4月，全球 锌矿产量为404.06万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货22240，基差-35；中性。 3、库存：8月22日LME锌库存较上日减少1300吨至68075吨，8月22日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日增加503吨至32791吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡反弹走势，收20日均线之下,20日均线向下；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净多头，空翻多；偏多。 重要提示：本报告非 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures rose and then fell yesterday, with a general negotiation atmosphere in the spot market and a slightly stronger spot basis. Some polyester factories restocked. The processing margin has remained low recently, some PTA plants are under maintenance, and the polyester load has rebounded. There is no pressure for PTA to accumulate inventory in August. However, the oil price is under pressure, and the cost side lacks support. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US - Russia talks on the oil price and the changes in upstream and downstream plants [5]. - MEG: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol (MEG) rose steadily, and the market negotiation was fair. The polyester load rebounded to around 89.4% last week, and the load of looms and texturing machines also increased, with gradually strengthening demand support. During the recent price correction of MEG, polyester factories actively participated in price - fixing, and the port shipments will improve in the future. The inventory at ports is not expected to increase significantly from August to September. It is expected that the price center of MEG will be adjusted within a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the rebound speed of the polyester load and the commodity trend [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 PTA Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, PTA futures rose and then fell, with a general negotiation atmosphere in the spot market and a slightly stronger spot basis. Some polyester factories restocked. The 8 - month cargo was negotiated at 09 - 5~10, with the price negotiation range around 4670~4705. The current mainstream spot basis is 09 - 8 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4690, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 44, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - **Main Force Position**: The net short position is decreasing [5]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US - Russia talks on the oil price and the changes in upstream and downstream plants [5]. 3.2 MEG Analysis - **Fundamentals**: On Tuesday, the price center of MEG rose steadily, and the market negotiation was fair. The night - session MEG fluctuated within a narrow range, and the negotiation was relatively limited. The domestic MEG market rose steadily, and the trading was fair. The spot was negotiated and traded at a high level of over 4480 yuan/ton, and the negotiation atmosphere became a bit stalemate in the afternoon. In the US dollar market, the center of the MEG outer market fluctuated upwards. The recent shipments were negotiated and traded at around 521 US dollars/ton in the morning, and then the market rose steadily, with the recent shipments negotiated at around 523 - 525 US dollars/ton. The domestic - foreign price inversion widened, and the buying was relatively weak [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4455, and the basis of the 09 contract is 71, with the spot price higher than the futures price [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 47.22 tons, an increase of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - **Main Force Position**: The main force has a net short position, and the short position is increasing [7]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the price center of MEG will be adjusted within a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the rebound speed of the polyester load and the commodity trend [7]. 3.3 Influence Factor Summary - **Positive Factors**: Some PTA plants are planned to be under maintenance in August, and the supply - demand expectation has improved. As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market's expectation of demand start has also been slightly reflected [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [8]. - **Main Logic and Risk Points**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be watched for the market rebound [8]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, export, consumption, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the ethylene glycol production capacity, production, import, export, consumption, port inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. 3.5 Price - Related Charts - **PET Bottle Chip**: It includes the price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, etc. of PET bottle chips from 2020 to 2025 [13][16][20][21]. - **PTA and MEG**: It includes the price spreads (such as TA1 - 5, TA5 - 9, TA9 - 1, EG1 - 5, EG5 - 9, EG9 - 1), basis, and spot price spreads between PTA and MEG from 2019 to 2025 [23][29][37]. 3.6 Inventory Analysis - It includes the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and various types of polyester fibers from 2020 to 2025 [39][41][44]. 3.7 Operating Rate Analysis - **Polyester Upstream**: It includes the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, and ethylene glycol from 2020 to 2025 [50]. - **Polyester Downstream**: It includes the operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [54]. 3.8 Profit Analysis - **PTA**: It shows the PTA processing fee from 2022 to 2025 [58]. - **MEG**: It shows the production profit of MEG produced by different methods (methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, and ethylene - based) from 2022 to 2025 [61]. - **Polyester Fibers**: It shows the production profit of polyester short fibers, DTY, POY, and FDY from 2022 to 2025 [64][65][67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of industrial silicon and polysilicon is complex. For industrial silicon, there is an issue of supply exceeding demand, with the supply side having increased production last week, while demand has been continuously sluggish. For polysilicon, the supply side is also relatively strong, and the demand recovery is at a low level [6][8][9]. - The cost support of industrial silicon is expected to increase, and it is predicted to fluctuate in the range of 8165 - 8555 for the 2509 contract. Polysilicon is expected to fluctuate in the range of 47310 - 50130 for the 2511 contract [6][10]. - The main logic for the current market situation is the mismatch of production capacity, leading to a situation where supply exceeds demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily View - Industrial Silicon - **Supply - side**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 81,000 tons, a 3.85% increase compared to the previous week. The expected production schedule on the supply side is decreasing and remains at a low level [6]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 70,000 tons, a 1.40% decrease compared to the previous week. The demand recovery is at a low level [6]. - **Inventory**: The silicon inventory is 229,000 tons, at a high level. The social inventory is 540,000 tons, a 0.93% increase compared to the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory is 171,450 tons, a 3.40% decrease compared to the previous week. The main port inventory is 119,000 tons, a 0.83% decrease compared to the previous week [6]. - **Cost**: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of the sample oxygen - passing 553 is 2,354 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - **Others**: The 09 contract basis is 940 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The MA20 is upward, and the 09 contract price closes below the MA20. The net short position of the main contract is increasing [6]. 3.2 Daily View - Polysilicon - **Supply - side**: Last week, the production of polysilicon was 26,500 tons, a 3.92% increase compared to the previous week. The predicted production schedule for August is 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase compared to the previous month [8]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11 GW, a 1.78% decrease compared to the previous week. The inventory is 181,500 tons, a 1.56% increase compared to the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production of battery cells and components also shows different trends in production and inventory [9]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 229,000 tons, a 5.76% decrease compared to the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [12]. - **Cost**: The average cost of the polysilicon N - type material industry is 36,500 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9,500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Others**: The 11 contract basis is - 1980 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The MA20 is upward, and the 11 contract price closes above the MA20. The net long position of the main contract is decreasing [12]. 3.3 Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: The prices of various contracts and spot prices have decreased to varying degrees. The weekly social inventory has increased, while the sample enterprise inventory has decreased, and the main port inventory has decreased [18]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of various products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have remained relatively stable, with some changes in production, inventory, and export volume [20]. 3.4 Other Aspects - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends**: The report presents the trends of the SI main contract basis and the 421 - 553 spread [22]. - **Inventory**: It shows the trends of industrial silicon inventory in different regions and types, including delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises [26]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The report shows the trends of industrial silicon production and capacity utilization in different regions and time periods [28]. - **Cost Composition**: It presents the trends of main production area electricity prices, silicon stone prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices [33]. - **Cost - Sample Region Trends**: It shows the cost - profit trends of 421 in Sichuan and Yunnan and the oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang [35]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The report provides the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon and the monthly supply - demand balance table of polysilicon [37][40][64]. - **Downstream Industry Trends**: It details the price, production, inventory, import - export, and other trends of downstream industries such as organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [43][51][61].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [3][5][6] - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4][5] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8400, with a basis of 174, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [4] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the soybean oil main contract have decreased [3] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [3] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4][5] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9030, with a basis of 60, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [5] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [5] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the palm oil main contract have increased [5] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8700 - 9100 [5] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4][5] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9600, with a basis of 108, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [6] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [6] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward [6] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the rapeseed oil main contract have decreased [6] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9300 - 9700 [6] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and it is the palm oil production cut season [7] - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [7] Supply - The report mentions the supply aspects of imported soybean inventory [8], soybean oil inventory [10], soybean meal inventory [12], oil mill soybean crushing [14], palm oil inventory [19], rapeseed oil inventory [22], rapeseed inventory [24], and domestic total inventory of oils and fats [26] Demand - The report mentions the apparent consumption of soybean oil [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is stable, with spot premiums rising slightly due to active physical buying. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is still suppressed by sufficient supply in the short term, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively weaker, causing the Hi - 5 spread to widen. The market is neutral. The fuel oil market has mixed signals, with some factors like inventory reduction being positive and others like price below the 20 - day line and short - dominated positions being negative. The expected price ranges are 2860 - 2900 for FU2509 and 3540 - 3600 for LU2510 [3]. - The summer power generation demand is expected to increase, but the optimism on the demand side needs verification, and there is a possibility of relaxed sanctions on Russia. The market is driven by the resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is stable, with spot premiums rising slightly. The low - sulfur market is suppressed by supply, and the high - sulfur market is weaker. The Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil price is 403.81 dollars/ton with a basis of 58 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur is 504.5 dollars/ton with a basis of 123 yuan/ton. The Singapore fuel oil inventory on July 16 was 2035.9 million barrels, a decrease of 45 million barrels. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the high - sulfur and low - sulfur main positions are short. The expected price ranges are 2860 - 2900 for FU2509 and 3540 - 3600 for LU2510 [3]. - The previous day's FU and LU futures prices were 2921 and 3610 respectively, and the current prices are 2899 and 3575, with decreases of 22 and 35 respectively, and decline rates of - 0.75% and - 0.97%. The previous day's FU and LU basis were 60 and 136 respectively, and the current ones are 58 and 123, with decreases of 2 and 13 respectively, and decline rates of - 3.17% and - 9.52% [5]. - The previous day's spot prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur, Zhoushan low - sulfur, Singapore high - sulfur, Singapore low - sulfur, Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oils and Singapore diesel were 505.00, 510.00, 403.49, 508.50, 383.61 and 680.78 respectively. The current prices are 505.00, 510.00, 403.81, 504.50, 384.01 and 666.35 respectively. The changes are 0.00, 0.00, 0.32, - 4.00, 0.40 and - 14.43 respectively, and the change rates are 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.08%, - 0.79%, 0.10% and - 2.12% [6]. 2. Multi - Short Focus - Bullish factors include the expected increase in summer power generation demand. Bearish factors are that the optimism on the demand side needs verification and there is a possibility of relaxed sanctions on Russia. The market is driven by the resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is stable, with spot premiums rising slightly. The low - sulfur market is suppressed by supply, and the high - sulfur market is relatively weaker, causing the Hi - 5 spread to widen. The Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil price is 403.81 dollars/ton with a basis of 58 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur is 504.5 dollars/ton with a basis of 123 yuan/ton. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the high - sulfur and low - sulfur main positions are short. The expected price ranges are 2860 - 2900 for FU2509 and 3540 - 3600 for LU2510 [3]. 5. Spread Data - Not provided in the given content Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory on May 7 was 2412.9 million barrels, an increase of 40 million barrels; on May 14, it was 2490.9 million barrels, an increase of 78 million barrels; on May 21, it was 2563.9 million barrels, an increase of 73 million barrels; on May 28, it was 2201.9 million barrels, a decrease of 362 million barrels; on June 4, it was 2140.9 million barrels, a decrease of 61 million barrels; on June 11, it was 2311.9 million barrels, an increase of 171 million barrels; on June 18, it was 2289.9 million barrels, a decrease of 22 million barrels; on June 25, it was 2274.9 million barrels, a decrease of 15 million barrels; on July 2, it was 2132.9 million barrels, a decrease of 142 million barrels; on July 9, it was 2080.9 million barrels, a decrease of 52 million barrels; on July 16, it was 2035.9 million barrels, a decrease of 45 million barrels [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA has a high production forecast for South America in the 24/25 season. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The overall domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level. [3][5][6] - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk is the El Niño weather. [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral as the production decline was less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that Malaysian palm oil export data for this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and supply will increase as the production season approaches. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8350, with a basis of 258, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [4] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year. [4] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [3] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7900 - 8300. [3] Daily Views - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report for Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and supply is expected to increase. [5] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9000, with a basis of 90, indicating spot premium. [5] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year. [5] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [5] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have increased. [5] - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8800 - 9200. [5] Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report for Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and supply is expected to increase. [6] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9680, with a basis of 119, indicating spot premium. [6] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year. [6] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [6] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. [6] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9300 - 9700. [6] Recent利多利空Analysis - **Positive Factors**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. It is the palm oil production reduction season. [7] - **Negative Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. [7] Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Includes import soybean inventory [8], soybean oil inventory [10], soybean meal inventory [12], oil mill soybean crushing [14], palm oil inventory [19], rapeseed oil inventory [22], rapeseed inventory [24], and total domestic oils and fats inventory [26]. - **Demand**: Soybean oil apparent consumption [16]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For LLDPE, with cost - demand game and tariff policies as the main logics, the market is expected to be volatile today due to factors like OPEC's continuous production increase, off - season demand, weak downstream demand, and new production capacity pressure [4]. - For PP, also under the influence of cost - demand game and tariff policies, the market is expected to be volatile today considering OPEC's production increase and weak downstream demand [7]. 3. Summary by Related Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In June, PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, in the contraction range for three consecutive months; Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, with continuous production increase for four months. It's the off - season for agricultural films, downstream demand is weak, and new production capacity pressure remains. The current LL delivery spot price is 7210 (-50), showing a generally bearish situation [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of LLDPE 2509 contract is - 11, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.2%, neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 55.4 tons (+5.4), bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today due to factors such as OPEC's production increase, off - season demand, and new production capacity pressure [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a bullish factor, while new production capacity release and weak demand are bearish factors [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro - data. The current PP delivery spot price is 7180 (-0), with a generally bearish situation. It's the off - season for downstream demand, and demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of PP 2509 contract is 165, with a premium/discount ratio of 2.4%, bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 58.1 tons (+1.1), neutral [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a decrease in short positions, bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today due to OPEC's production increase and weak downstream demand [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a bullish factor, and weak demand is a bearish factor [9]. Spot and Futures Data - **LLDPE**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 7210 (-50), the 2509 contract price is 7221 (-63), and the basis is - 11 [4][10]. - **PP**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 7180 (-0), the 2509 contract price is 7015 (-52), and the basis is 165 [7][10]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906 [17].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, with cost and demand in a state of game - playing, and the market is affected by tariff policies. The expected trend for both PE and PP today is oscillatory [4][7]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May, back above the critical point. OPEC issued a production - increase statement on July 5, with production increasing for the fourth consecutive month. It's the off - season for agricultural films, downstream demand is weak, and there is still pressure from new capacity coming on stream. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7260 (-20), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is -24, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.3%, considered neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 55.4 tons (+5.4), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to oscillate. OPEC's consecutive production increases, the off - season for agricultural film demand, weak downstream demand, and production pressure still exist. With neutral industrial inventory, PE is expected to oscillate today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a bullish factor, while new capacity launches and weak demand are bearish factors [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic indicators show a contraction range for PMI and an increase in OPEC production. It's the off - season for downstream demand, and the current spot price of PP delivery products is 7180 (-0). The overall fundamentals are bearish [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 113, with a premium/discount ratio of 1.6%, considered bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 58.1 tons (+1.1), considered neutral [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to oscillate. OPEC's consecutive production increases, weak downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving, and neutral industrial inventory suggest an oscillatory trend for PP today [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a bullish factor, and weak demand is a bearish factor [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have shown various trends. The capacity growth rate in 2025E is expected to be 20.5% [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also changed. The capacity growth rate in 2025E is expected to be 11.0% [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the short - term driving force is weak, and the price follows the cost fluctuation. In July, there are few maintenance plans, and the Sanfangxiang PTA device is expected to be put into production, increasing the supply. The terminal demand is in the off - season, and the polyester factory's inventory pressure is accumulating, with a downward expectation for polyester, which is negative for the PTA spot market [5]. - For MEG, the supply - demand structure is gradually changing, with an obvious inventory accumulation expectation in the third quarter. The willingness of traders to hold goods is poor. The supply - demand weakening and the polyester off - season put pressure on the MEG disk. The price will be mainly in the low - range consolidation in the short term [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant information provided 3.2 Daily Tips - **PTA**: The PTA futures rose slightly yesterday. The spot market negotiation was average, mainly by traders, with individual polyester factories making bids. The spot basis weakened rapidly and then stabilized. The expected supply increase and weak terminal demand are negative factors [5]. - **MEG**: On Wednesday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated narrowly. The spot basis was stable, and the external market was at a low level. The supply - demand structure is changing, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **PTA**: Focus on the downstream polyester load fluctuation [5]. - **MEG**: Focus on the return efficiency of the supply side and the change of the cost side [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.95 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, but the closing price is below it. The main position is net short with an increase in short positions [5]. - **MEG**: The total inventory in the East China region is 53.20 tons, an increase of 2.73 tons compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below it. The main position is net short with an increase in short positions [6]. 3.5 Impact Factor Summary - **Likely Factors**: The PX operating rate remains at a relatively high level [8]. - **Negative Factors**: Iran confirmed a cease - fire, and the terminal demand is weakening due to the end of the rush - to - export period and the domestic demand off - season [9]. 3.6 Current Main Logic and Risk Points - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. There is still an inventory accumulation expectation at the raw material end. After the disk rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **PTA**: The supply - demand balance sheet shows the changes in PTA production capacity, output, import, export, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - **MEG**: The supply - demand balance sheet shows the changes in MEG's total operating rate, output, import, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. 3.8 Price and Profit Data - **Price**: The prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers have changed on July 9, 2025, compared with July 8, 2025 [13]. - **Profit**: The processing fees and profits of PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers have also changed [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall situation of natural rubber is neutral, with market sentiment dominating and short - term trading recommended. The supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventory is rising, and tire operating rate is at a high level. There are both positive and negative factors in the market [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply increasing, foreign spot being strong, domestic inventory rising, and tire operating rate at a high level [6]. - The basis is - 145 (spot price is 13950), indicating a bearish signal [6]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and year - on - year, showing a neutral situation [6]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is a bullish signal [6]. - The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is at a high level. The raw material price is strong, and the spot price is resistant to decline [6][8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the exchange has changed little recently, and the inventory in Qingdao has also changed little recently [16][19]. - **Import**: The import volume has a seasonal decline [22]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales have a seasonal decline, while tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports have a seasonal increase [25][28][31]. 3.3 Basis - The basis widened on July 1st [37]. 3.4 Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 whole latex (not for delivery) decreased on July 1st [10]. 3.5 Multi - Empty Factors - **Likely Factors**: Downstream consumption is at a high level, raw material prices are strong, and spot prices are resistant to decline [8]. - **Negative Factors**: Supply is increasing, and the external environment is bearish [8].