交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年12月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为8.1万吨，环比增长8.00%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为29.3万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1384元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为69.79%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.23万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为104元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为636.83元/吨，再生铝开工率为59.8%，环比持平，处于高 位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产 ...

PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月16日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 PTA 每日观点 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡整理，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差偏强，个别聚酯工厂补货。个别主流供应商出远期货源。 12月货主流在01贴水20附近商谈成交，价格商谈区间在4600~4640。今日主流现货基差在01-20。中性 2、基差：现货4615，01合约基差-13，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.86天，环比减少0.06天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向下，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏空 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 6、预期：近期PTA装置运行平稳，部分聚酯工厂阶段性补货，带动现货基差走强，期货盘面跟 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the supply side, last week's lithium carbonate production was 21,865 tons, a 1.19% decrease from the previous week, but higher than the historical average. In November 2025, the production was 95,350 physical tons, and it is predicted to reach 98,210 physical tons next month, a 3.00% increase [8][9]. - On the demand side, last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 104,341 tons, a 1.71% increase from the previous week, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 19,361 tons, a 0.37% increase [8]. - In terms of cost, the cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 95,970 yuan/ton, a 2.68% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 2,927 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lepidolite was 94,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a loss of 4,016 yuan/ton. The production cost on the recycling side is generally higher than that on the ore side, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost on the salt lake side is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that on the ore side, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - The fundamentals are neutral; on December 2nd, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 94,400 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 2,160 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The smelter inventory was 24,324 tons, a 6.81% decrease from the previous week, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 41,984 tons, a 5.51% decrease from the previous week, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 49,660 tons, a 3.72% increase from the previous week, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 115,968 tons, a 2.07% decrease from the previous week, higher than the historical average, which is neutral. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish. The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [9]. - The expected price of lithium carbonate 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 92,980 - 96,740 yuan/ton. The bullish factors include the production cut plan of lepidolite manufacturers and the decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile. The bearish factor is the continuous high supply on the ore/salt lake side with limited decline [9][11][12]. - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - Supply: Last week's production decreased slightly, but November's production and next - month's predicted production increased. The cost of spodumene concentrate increased, while the cost of lepidolite remained unchanged. The salt lake side has cost advantages [8][9]. - Demand: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials sample enterprises increased last week [8]. - Cost: Most production methods are in a loss - making state, except for the salt lake side [9]. - Market Indicators: Fundamentals are neutral, basis is bearish, inventory is neutral, disk is bullish, and main positions are bearish [9]. - Expectation: The price will fluctuate within a certain range, affected by both bullish and bearish factors [9][11][12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Quotes Overview**: The prices of various lithium - related products, including lithium ore, lithium compounds, cathode materials, and lithium batteries, have different degrees of rise and fall. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) decreased by 0.50%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.05% [15]. - **Supply - Related Data** - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium ore has changed, and the production, import, and self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore in different periods are presented. The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore shows different situations in each month [24][25][28]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production, import, and export of lithium carbonate in different periods are provided, and the supply - demand balance also varies from month to month. The production and import of lithium carbonate in November 2025 increased compared with the previous period [30][31][37]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The capacity utilization rate, production, import, and export of lithium hydroxide are shown, and the supply - demand balance is also analyzed monthly [39][40][43]. - **Cost - Profit Data**: The cost, profit, and processing cost composition of various lithium compounds, such as spodumene, lepidolite, and recycled materials, are presented. Different production methods and materials have different cost - profit situations [45][46][48]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and total inventory, shows different trends of increase and decrease [53][55]. - **Demand - Related Data** - **Lithium Batteries**: The price, production, sales, and export of lithium batteries are presented, as well as the inventory and winning bids of energy - storage batteries [56][57][59]. - **Ternary Precursors**: The price, cost, profit, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors are analyzed [61][62][65]. - **Ternary Materials**: The price, cost, profit, production, and inventory of ternary materials are provided [67][68][71]. - **Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium**: The price, cost, profit, production, and inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium are presented [73][74][77]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: The production, sales, export, and penetration rate of new energy vehicles are shown, as well as the retail - wholesale ratio and dealer inventory index [81][82][86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side's production schedule has decreased and is near the historical average. The demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9025 - 9235 [3][5]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production schedule continues to decrease, and the overall demand shows a continuous decline. Cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 55555 - 57295 [7][8]. - The main logic of the market is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment. The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' shutdown and production - cut plans, while the main bearish factors are slow post - holiday demand recovery and strong supply but weak demand in downstream polysilicon [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 91,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 82,000 tons, a 2.50% increase from the previous week, showing an upward trend [5]. - Inventory: Polysilicon inventory is 281,000 tons (low), silicone inventory is 56,300 tons (low), and aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 74,600 tons (high). Social inventory increased by 0.36% to 550,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory increased by 1.01% to 179,600 tons, and main port inventory remained unchanged at 129,000 tons [5]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 2,874 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season [5]. - Basis: On November 28, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 220 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [5]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [5]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing [5]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the output was 24,000 tons, a 11.43% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule in December is predicted to be 113,500 tons, a 0.95% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 12.02GW, a 5.94% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory increased by 4.16%. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is generally in a state of continuous decline [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,810 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,190 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On November 28, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 4,125 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 281,000 tons, a 3.69% increase from the previous week, at a historical low [8]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [8]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts showed an upward trend, with increases ranging from 0.16% to 0.71%. Spot prices of various types of silicon remained mostly unchanged [15]. - Inventory: Social inventory increased by 0.36%, sample enterprise inventory increased by 1.01%, and main port inventory remained unchanged [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures prices of most contracts showed an upward trend, with increases ranging from 2.15% to 3.05%. Spot prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly unchanged [17]. - Inventory: The weekly total inventory increased by 3.69% to 281,000 tons [17]. 3.3 Downstream Market Analysis 3.3.1 Organic Silicon - DMC: The daily capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 74.84%, higher than the historical average. The weekly output increased by 3.58% to 49,200 tons, and the monthly inventory increased by 2.18% to 56,300 tons [15][45]. - Downstream products: Prices of 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 remained stable [47]. 3.3.2 Aluminum Alloy - Production: The monthly output of primary aluminum - based alloy ingots increased by 9.93% to 132,800 tons, and the monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42% to 645,000 tons [15]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.80% to 74,600 tons [15][16]. 3.3.3 Polysilicon - Industry cost: The cost showed a certain trend of change, with the average cost of the industry remaining stable at 38,810 yuan/ton [63]. - Silicon wafers: The weekly output decreased, and the inventory increased. The prices of various types of silicon wafers remained stable [17][69]. - Battery cells: The production and inventory of battery cells showed certain changes, and the prices of various types of battery cells remained mostly stable [17][72]. - Components: The monthly output decreased, and the domestic and European inventories decreased. The prices of various types of components remained stable [17][75].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the inter - bank bond market is warm, with spot bond yields declining by about 1bp. The main contracts of treasury bond futures mostly rose, and the 30 - year main contract increased by 0.19%. The tax payment period has basically ended, and the inter - bank money market has become more relaxed, with the overnight repo rate of deposit - taking institutions dropping by more than 9bp to a low of 1.31%. The fourth - quarter bond market faces a generally favorable fundamental and policy environment but remains in a volatile pattern [3]. - The central bank has continued to increase the volume of MLF renewals for the 8th consecutive month. In September, the manufacturing PMI recovered but was still below the boom - bust line. The CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, while the year - on - year increase in core CPI expanded for the 5th consecutive month. New social financing in September was slightly lower than the seasonal level, and the M2 growth rate expanded due to the "migration of RMB deposits". The LPR remained unchanged as expected. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its October meeting [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - The inter - bank bond market sentiment is warm, spot bond yields decline, and the main contracts of treasury bond futures mostly rise. The tax payment period ends, and the money market eases. The market is highly concerned about the China - US summit [3]. 3.2 Fund Flow - On October 30, the People's Bank of China conducted 3426 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 2125 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net investment was 1301 billion yuan [3]. 3.3 Basis - The basis of TS main contract is - 0.0721, indicating that the spot bond is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The basis of TF main contract is - 0.0427, also bearish. The basis of T main contract is 0.1084, indicating that the spot bond is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The basis of TL main contract is 0.0476, also bullish [3]. 3.4 Inventory - The balance of deliverable bonds for the main contracts of TS, TF, and T are 1359.4 billion yuan, 1493.5 billion yuan, and 2359.9 billion yuan respectively, which is neutral [4]. 3.5 Market Trends - The TS main contract is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish. The TF main contract is also above the 20 - day moving average with an upward 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The T main contract is above the 20 - day moving average with an upward 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. 3.6 Main Positions - The TS main contract has a net long position, and the long position increases. The TF main contract has a net long position, and the long position increases. The T main contract has a net long position, but the long position decreases [5]. 3.7 Market Quotes | Futures Contract | Current Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Daily Position Change | CTD Bond | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T2512.CFE | 108.630 | 0.05% | 68,993 | 245,110 | - 1,169 | 220017.IB | | TF2512.CFE | 106.065 | 0.00% | 54,366 | 149,269 | 160 | 250003.IB | | TS2512.CFE | 102.554 | - 0.01% | 33,991 | 73,541 | 2,319 | 250012.IB | | TL2512.CFE | 116.15 | 0.19% | 128,226 | 144,078 | - 1,963 | 220008.IB | [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [4][9] Report's Core View - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The market has support below, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4] Summary by Directory Daily Tips - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and tire operating rates are at a high level, with a neutral outlook. The basis is -610 with the spot at 14750, showing a bearish signal. Exchange and Qingdao region inventories are decreasing week - on - week, with the former also decreasing year - on - year and the latter increasing year - on - year, presenting a neutral situation. The price is running above the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is downward, also neutral. The main positions are net short with a reduction in short positions, showing a bearish sign. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Fundamental Data Spot Price - The spot price of 23 - year full - latex (non - deliverable) remained flat on October 28 [8] Inventory - Exchange inventories have been continuously decreasing recently, and Qingdao region inventories are also continuously decreasing [14][17] Import - Import volume has rebounded [20] Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales are seasonally rebounding, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are also at a record high for the same period [23][29][32] Basis - The basis strengthened on October 28 [35] Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Likely to Fall Factors**: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the natural rubber industry is neutral [4][9] Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Summary by Directory Daily Hints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is increasing [4][6] - **Spot Price**: The spot price is strong, and the 23-year full latex (non-deliverable) spot price rose on October 24th. The basis strengthened on October 24th [4][8][35] - **Inventory**: The exchange inventory and Qingdao area inventory are both decreasing. The exchange inventory has been continuously destocking recently, and the Qingdao area inventory has also been continuously destocking [4][14][17] - **Downstream Consumption**: Downstream consumption is high. Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are at a record high for the same period [6][23][29] Multi-Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise**: Downstream consumption is high, the spot price is resistant to decline, and there is anti-involution in the domestic market [6] - **Likely to Fall**: Supply is increasing, domestic economic indicators are bearish, and there are trade frictions [6] Basis - The spot price is 14,750, and the basis is -585, which is bearish [4] Spot Price - The 23-year full latex (non-deliverable) spot price rose on October 24th [8] Inventory - The exchange inventory and Qingdao area inventory are both decreasing. The exchange inventory has been continuously destocking recently, and the Qingdao area inventory has also been continuously destocking [14][17] Import - The import volume has rebounded [20] Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are at a record high for the same period [23][29][32]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the supply pressure of PVC decreased, but next week, the number of overhauls is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand is close to the historical average. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4659 - 4717. The fundamentals are neutral, and factors such as macro - policies and export dynamics should be continuously monitored [6]. - The positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The negative factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [6][9][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints - **Supply Side**: In September 2025, PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.05%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 76.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 317,720 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.92%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 149,660 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.78%. Next week, the number of overhauls is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly [6]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream开工率 was 48.59%, a month - on - month increase of 0.38 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 33.26%, a month - on - month increase of 7.39 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 40%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 72.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.569 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 46.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 30.4 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. The current demand is close to the historical average [6]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 713.18 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 14.60% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 552.76 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 2.60% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,363.45 yuan/ton, with the profit increasing by 0.80% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [6]. - **Basis**: On October 17, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,660 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 28 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: The in - factory inventory was 360,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.06%. The calcium carbide factory inventory was 277,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.71%. The ethylene factory inventory was 83,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12%. The social inventory was 556,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.76%. It is bearish [6]. - **Market**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. It is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. It is bearish [6]. 2. PVC Market Overview - Various indicators such as prices, spreads,开工率, profits, and inventories of different types of PVC enterprises and contracts are presented, including changes compared with the previous values and their respective growth or decline rates [13]. 3. PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The historical basis trend of PVC, along with the East China market price and the main contract closing price, is shown from 2022 to 2025 [16]. - **Price and Volume Trend**: The price, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract from September to October 2025 are presented [19]. - **Spread Analysis**: The historical spread trends of different contract months (such as 1 - 9, 5 - 9) of PVC futures from 2024 to 2025 are shown [22]. 4. PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: The price, cost - profit,开工率, inventory, and other data of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method are presented, along with their historical trends from multiple years [25][28][30][32]. - **PVC Supply Trend**: The capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide method and ethylene method, production profits, daily and weekly production, and overhaul volumes of PVC are presented, along with their historical trends from multiple years [37][39]. - **Demand Trend**: The daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream开工率 of different products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin), and related data of the real estate market and social financing scale are presented, along with their historical trends from multiple years [41][44][46][51][54]. - **Inventory**: The exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days of PVC are presented, along with their historical trends from multiple years [56]. - **Ethylene Method**: The import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of ethylene method, and import spread of vinyl chloride are presented, along with their historical trends from multiple years [58]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from August 2024 to September 2025, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export, are presented [61].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being liberalized. In September, manufacturing production accelerated with the PMI rising to 49.8%, and the business climate continued to improve. The copper price is expected to remain strong due to inventory recovery, geopolitical disturbances, and the fermentation of the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia, despite the repeated US tariffs [2]. - The copper market in 2024 will have a slight surplus, while it will be in a tight balance in 2025 [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The supply side is disturbed, and the PMI in September shows an improved business climate. It is considered neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 86,675 with a basis of 775, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On October 10, copper inventory decreased by 75 to 139,400 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 14,656 tons to 109,690 tons compared to last week. It is considered neutral [2]. - **Market Trend**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is rising, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, and the long position is increasing, which is bullish [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Global policy easing and the escalation of the trade war are the logical factors affecting the market, but specific bullish and bearish factors are not detailed [3]. Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 14,656 tons to 109,690 tons compared to last week [2]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16]. Supply - Demand Balance - **Overall Situation**: There will be a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [20]. - **China's Annual Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2018 - 2024, China's copper production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance are presented in the table. For example, in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, import is 3.73 million tons, export is 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and the supply - demand balance is a surplus of 0.11 million tons [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply side of copper has disturbances with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap - copper policy being relaxed. In September, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8%, with the business climate continuing to improve. The copper price is expected to remain strong due to inventory recovery and geopolitical disturbances, such as the event at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances, smelting production cuts, relaxed scrap - copper policy, and improved manufacturing PMI in September. Overall, it is considered neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 85750, with a basis of - 1000, indicating a discount to futures, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: On October 9, copper inventory increased by 275 to 139475 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3745 tons to 95034 tons compared to last week. Overall, it is considered neutral [2]. - **Market Chart**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing, which is bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Inventory is rising, geopolitical disturbances persist, and the copper price is expected to remain strong [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Global policy easing and trade - war escalation are mentioned as logical factors, but no clear classification of bullish or bearish factors is given [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight - balance state [21]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 to 2024 [23].