Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The Shanghai nickel 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [2] - The stainless steel 2605 contract is expected to have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [4] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Shanghai Nickel - **Fundamentals**: External markets rebounded, and the international situation remains the main influencing factor. In March, production scheduling increased, domestic inventories continued to accumulate, and market supply was sufficient. Nickel ore prices continued to rise, and the RKAB policy in Indonesia continued to have an impact. The strong demand in Indonesia was in sharp contrast to the cold trading due to cost inversion in China. Nickel - iron prices were weakly stable, and the cost line was firm. Stainless steel inventories continued to decline slightly, and demand was weak. New energy vehicle production and sales data met expectations, with a large month - on - month decline in the off - season [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of Shanghai nickel was 137,850, and the basis was 4,870, indicating a bullish signal [2] - **Inventory**: LME inventory was 282,792, a decrease of 720, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts were 57,632, an increase of 942, indicating a bearish signal [2] - **Market trend**: The closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, indicating a bearish signal [2] - **Main positions**: The main positions were net long, and the long positions increased, indicating a bullish signal [2] 2. Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of stainless steel remained unchanged. In the short term, nickel ore prices were firm, demand in Indonesia was strong, nickel - iron prices were weakly stable, and the cost line had strong support. Stainless steel inventories decreased slightly, and demand was weak [4] - **Basis**: The average price of stainless steel was 15,062.5, and the basis was 1,027.5, indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts were 41,665, an increase of 827, showing a neutral signal [4] - **Market trend**: The closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, showing a neutral signal [4] 3. Price Overview - **Nickel**: The Shanghai nickel main contract price on March 23 was 132,980, a decrease of 180 compared to March 20. The London nickel price was 17,200, an increase of 315 compared to March 20. The SMM1 electrolytic nickel spot price was 137,850, a decrease of 50 compared to March 20 [10] - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel main contract price on March 23 was 14,035, a decrease of 30 compared to March 20. The cold - rolled coil prices in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged from March 20 [10] 4. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - As of March 20, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory was 63,661 tons, with the futures inventory at 56,690 tons, a decrease of 20 tons and an increase of 228 tons respectively [12] - On March 23, LME nickel inventory was 282,792, a decrease of 720 compared to March 20. The nickel warehouse receipts were 57,632, an increase of 942 compared to March 20. The total inventory was 340,424, an increase of 222 compared to March 20 [13] 5. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - On March 20, the inventory in Wuxi was 598,700 tons, in Foshan was 380,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1,127,400 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons compared to the previous period. The inventory of the 300 - series was 693,700 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons compared to the previous period [17] - On March 23, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 41,665, an increase of 827 compared to March 20 [18] 6. Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - The price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 80 US dollars per wet ton on March 23, unchanged from March 20. The price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 34.5 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged from March 20 [21] - The high - nickel (8 - 12) price per nickel point was 1,086.49 yuan on March 23, a decrease of 0.59 compared to March 20. The low - nickel (below 2) price per ton was 3,675 yuan, unchanged from March 20 [21] 7. Stainless Steel Production Costs - The traditional production cost was 14,156, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,971, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 17,850 [23] 8. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 134,395 yuan per ton [26]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, fuel oil supply from the Middle East is restricted, intensifying concerns about recent market supply disruptions. The market structures of Asian high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil have further strengthened, and the spot price spread of fuel oil has reached a high. Terminal marine fuel demand is strong, and buyers are stocking up before short - term price increases. The market is in a supply shortage state. [3] - Middle East tensions have worsened, some oil - producing countries are starting to cut production passively, market sentiment is high, and enterprises are hoarding. Fuel oil prices are expected to rise in the short term, with high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil expected to hit the daily limit today. The FU2605 contract is expected to run in the 4500 - 4549 range, and the LU2605 contract in the 5000 - 5032 range. [3] - The market is driven by the resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand. [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - **Futures Market**: The previous FU and LU主力合约期货 prices were 3888 and 4376 respectively, and the current values are 4437 and 4999, with increases of 549 (14.12%) and 623 (14.24%) respectively. The previous FU and LU basis were 578 and 884, and the current values are 1581 and 1865, with increases of 1002.53 (173.31%) and 981 (111%) respectively. [5] - **Spot Market**: The previous prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel, Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel, Singapore high - sulfur fuel, Singapore low - sulfur fuel, Middle - East high - sulfur fuel, and Singapore diesel were 790, 850, 646.6, 765.5, 548.92, and 1110.92 respectively. The current values are 1110, 1200, 877.87, 989.37, 772.77, and 1129.41, with increases of 320 (40.51%), 350 (41.18%), 231.27 (35.77%), 223.87 (29.24%), 223.85 (40.78%), and 18.49 (1.66%) respectively. [6] 2. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: Middle East tensions and poor channel traffic [4] - **Likely to be Bearish**: The Trump administration's TACO situation and upstream crude oil being under pressure [4] 3. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has restricted fuel oil supply from the Middle East, and terminal marine fuel demand is strong, with the market in a supply shortage state [3] - **Basis**: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 578 yuan/ton, and that of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 700 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3] - **Market Trend**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward [3] - **Main Position**: High - sulfur main positions are short, with short positions decreasing; low - sulfur main positions are short, changing from long to short [3] 5. Spread Data - A chart of the high - and low - sulfur futures price spread is provided, but specific data is not detailed [9] 6. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on March 4, 2026, was 2574.9 million barrels, an increase of 187 million barrels. Historical inventory data from December 24, 2025, to March 4, 2026, is also provided. [3][7]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **沪镍**: Last week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly. Despite the impact of RKAB and other news, rapid changes in the macro - environment led to a relatively weak performance under the supply - strong and demand - weak fundamentals. In March, production is scheduled to increase, domestic inventories continue to accumulate, and market supply is sufficient. The nickel ore market has a strong bullish sentiment, but there is a sharp contrast between strong demand in Indonesia due to RKAB policy changes and sluggish domestic transactions caused by cost inversion. Nickel iron prices continue to rebound with a firm cost line. Stainless steel inventories have slightly declined, indicating weak demand. New energy vehicle production and sales data meet expectations, but there is a significant month - on - month decline in the off - season. The conclusion is that SHFE nickel 2605 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel remains flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices are firm, demand in Indonesia is strong, and nickel iron prices are rebounding, providing strong cost - line support. Stainless steel inventories have slightly declined, and demand is weak. The conclusion is that stainless steel 2604 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures**: On March 6, the price of SHFE nickel's main contract was 137,140, up 870 from March 5; the price of LME nickel was 17,450, up 235; the price of stainless steel's main contract was 14,210, up 95. The nickel index on the Wuxi trading center was 136,850, up 1100, and the cold - rolled coil index was 13,801, up 75 [9]. - **Spot**: On March 6, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 140,500, up 150; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 143,950, up 300; the price of 1 imported nickel was 137,000, up 200; the price of nickel beans was 139,650, up 200. Cold - rolled coil 304*2B prices in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou remained unchanged at 15,100, and the price in Shanghai remained unchanged at 15,150 [9]. 3.2 Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - As of March 6, the SHFE nickel inventory was 61,769 tons, with the futures inventory at 53,568 tons, an increase of 978 tons and 437 tons respectively. LME nickel inventory remained unchanged at 287,550 tons, and the total inventory increased by 1 ton to 341,118 tons [11][12]. 3.3 Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - On March 6, the inventory in Wuxi was 618,600 tons, in Foshan was 398,300 tons, and the national inventory was 1.15 million tons, a decrease of 22,300 tons compared to the previous period. The inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 716,300 tons, a decrease of 12,600 tons [16]. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts on the futures market were 51,953 tons, a decrease of 122 tons [17]. 3.4 Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - On March 6, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 74 US dollars per wet ton, and (Ni0.9%) was 31 US dollars per wet ton, both unchanged. The freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 10.5 US dollars per ton, and to Tianjin Port was 11.5 US dollars per ton, both unchanged. The price of high - nickel (8 - 12) was 1,086.93 yuan per nickel point, up 1.12, and the price of low - nickel (below 2) was 3,750 yuan per ton, unchanged [19]. 3.5 Stainless Steel Production Costs - The traditional cost of stainless steel was 14,151 yuan, the cost of scrap - steel production was 14,298 yuan, and the cost of low - nickel + pure - nickel production was 18,015 yuan [21]. 3.6 Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 136,457 yuan per ton [24].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views - The market has entered a bearish season, and a bearish mindset should be maintained [6] - The fundamentals are neutral with strong spot prices, inventory accumulation in Qingdao, and high tire operating rates [6] - The basis is bullish with a spot price of 16,700 and a basis of 145 [6] - The inventory situation is neutral with an increase in SHFE inventory week - on - week and a decrease year - on - year, and an increase in Qingdao inventory both week - on - week and year - on - year [6] - The market trend on the disk is neutral with the 20 - day line upward and the price running below the 20 - day line [6] - The main positions are bullish with the main net long and a reduction in long positions [6] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Not provided 2. Fundamental Data - Spot prices of 2024 full - latex (non - deliverable) remained flat on March 5 [10] - Exchange inventory has changed little recently [16] - Qingdao area inventory is accumulating [19] - Import volume has rebounded [22] - Automobile production and sales have declined [25][28] - Tire production has increased year - on - year [31] - Tire industry exports have rebounded [34] 3. Multi - empty Factors and Main Risk Points - Bullish factors: high downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [8] - Bearish factors: bearish domestic economic indicators and trade frictions [8] 4. Basis - The basis strengthened on March 5 [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP. Due to the upgraded situation in the Middle East and the interruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the external crude oil price has gapped up, which provides significant short - term support for the valuation of polyolefins. Both LLDPE and PP are expected to show a wide - range and strong - biased oscillation today, with cost support, neutral inventory, and gradually recovering downstream demand [4][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The escalating situation in the Middle East has led to a jump - up in crude oil prices, providing significant short - term support for polyolefin valuation. In terms of supply and demand, the resumption of work and demand recovery of downstream enterprises in the agricultural film sector are slow, while the packaging film has low - load rigid - demand operation and is expected to recover rapidly around the Lantern Festival. The pipe sector has started production one after another. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7320 (+100), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 73, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.0%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 59.4 tons (-3.3), which is neutral [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract's disk continues to be strong. The situation in Iran disturbs the oil price, with strong cost support, neutral inventory, and gradually recovering downstream demand. It is expected that PE will show a wide - range and strong - biased oscillation today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and the situation in Iran driving up crude oil prices [6] - **Negative Factors**: The main logic is oversupply, and the supply - demand marginal change is sensitive [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The escalating situation in the Middle East has led to a jump - up in crude oil prices, providing significant short - term support for polyolefin valuation. In terms of supply and demand, the rigid demand for plastic weaving is stable. The demand in the north recovers relatively fast but with limited increment. The BOPP resumes work quickly but faces competition and some finished - product inventory pressure. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7500 (+150), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is 42, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.6%, which is bullish [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 65.5 tons (-8.5), which is neutral [7] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract's disk continues to be strong. The situation in Iran disturbs the oil price, with strong cost support, neutral inventory, and gradually recovering downstream demand. It is expected that PP will show a wide - range and strong - biased oscillation today [7] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and the situation in Iran driving up crude oil prices [8] - **Negative Factors**: The main logic is oversupply, and the supply - demand marginal change is sensitive [8] Spot and Futures Market and Inventory Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 7320, up 100; the price of the 05 contract is 7393, up 38; the basis is - 73, up 62; the warehouse receipt is 8709, down 241; the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 59.4 tons, down 3.3 [9] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 7500, up 150; the price of the 05 contract is 7458, down 48; the basis is 42, up 198; the warehouse receipt is 18584, down 2260; the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 65.5 tons, down 8.5 [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally show an upward trend, while the import dependence shows a downward trend. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to be 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally show an upward trend, and the import dependence also shows a downward trend. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to be 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report did not mention an industry investment rating [6] 2. Core Views - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, and the spot market is strong. Domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The market is entering a bearish season, so a bearish mindset should be maintained [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and tire operating rates are high. The market is in a bearish season, and a bearish mindset should be maintained [6] 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is high. However, domestic economic indicators are bearish, and there are trade frictions. Automobile production and sales are declining, while tire production is increasing year - on - year, and tire industry exports are rebounding [6][8][25] - **Inventory**: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year. The inventory in Qingdao has increased both week - on - week and year - on - year. The exchange inventory has not changed much recently, and the Qingdao area is experiencing inventory accumulation [6][16][19] - **Import**: Import volume has rebounded [22] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2024 full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on March 2nd. The spot price is 16,800, and the basis is - 445, showing a bearish trend. The basis weakened on March 2nd [6][10][37] - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line. The main force has a net long position, and the long positions are increasing [6] 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [8] - **Bearish Factors**: Bearish domestic economic indicators and trade frictions [8] - **Risk Points**: Global economic recession, lower - than - expected domestic economic growth, and Sino - US trade frictions [8] 3.4 Basis - The basis weakened on March 2nd. The spot price is 16,800, and the basis is - 445, showing a bearish trend [6][37]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of the coking coal market is expected to tighten significantly as private coal mines in production areas gradually enter the state of shutdown and holiday. The market is characterized by weak supply and demand, and the prices of coking coal and coke are expected to remain stable in the short term [2][6] - For coking coal, factors such as rising hot metal production and limited supply increase are positive, while factors like slowdown in procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices are negative [4] - For coke, rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rate are positive factors, while factors such as squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - draft of restocking demand are negative [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Views - **Coking Coal**: The supply is expected to tighten, the market is in a state of weak supply and demand. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Total sample inventory increased by 570,000 tons compared to last week. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with a decrease in short positions. It is expected that the short - term price will remain stable [2] - **Coke**: Coke enterprises maintain normal production, but the overall market demand is average, and inventory pressure is emerging. The basis shows that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. Total sample inventory increased by 180,000 tons compared to last week. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with an increase in long positions. It is expected that the short - term price will remain stable [6][7] Price - **Imported Coking Coal**: On February 9, 2026 (17:30), the prices of various imported coking coals from Russia and Australia at different ports are provided, with some prices showing fluctuations [10] - **Port Metallurgical Coke**: On February 9, 2026 (17:30), the prices of various port metallurgical cokes from different origins and of different grades are provided, with some prices rising or remaining unchanged [11] Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 2.73 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons compared to last week; coke port inventory is 201,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons compared to last week [21] - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 1.095 million tons, an increase of 600,000 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 45,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons compared to last week [25] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 824,000 tons, an increase of 100,000 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 692,000 tons, an increase of 140,000 tons compared to last week [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, as the Spring Festival approaches, polyester production cuts increase, terminals gradually shut down, PTA supply - demand accumulates, and the spot market negotiation is light. It is expected that the pre - holiday PTA spot price will fluctuate with the cost side, and the spot basis will fluctuate in a range [5]. - For MEG, due to the unloading of some ocean - going vessels this week, the visible inventory of ethylene glycol will still maintain an upward trend at the beginning of this week, and the arrival of foreign ships will be decentralized in the second half of the month. There is a strong seasonal inventory accumulation expectation in January - February, but the medium - term supply - demand structure will moderately improve. The import volume in the second quarter is expected to be revised down, and the supply stability in Iran should be monitored. The absolute price of ethylene glycol is at a low level, with limited downside space and buying support at low levels. It is expected that the pre - holiday market will mainly consolidate in a range [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1前日回顾 (Previous Day Review) - No specific content provided for this section. 3.2每日提示 (Daily Tips) - PTA: On Friday, the negotiation for February middle - upper was at a discount of 60 - 85 yuan/ton to the 05 contract, and there was a transaction for late February at a discount of 55 yuan/ton to the 05 contract, with the price negotiation range at 5015 - 5135 yuan/ton. The mainstream spot basis today is 05 - 72. The spot is 5090 yuan/ton, the 05 contract basis is - 76, with the futures price higher than the spot price. PTA factory inventory is 3.74 days, a 0.16 - day increase compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net long position has changed from short to long [5][6]. - MEG: On Friday, the price of ethylene glycol rebounded slightly from a low level, and the market negotiation was average. The spot market fluctuated widely. Today's spot transactions were at a discount of 115 - 120 yuan/ton to the 05 contract, and next - week's spot transactions were at a discount of 105 - 108 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. It rebounded slightly due to plant news during the session, but the increase was limited. The spot is 3630 yuan/ton, the 05 contract basis is - 113, with the futures price higher than the spot price. The total inventory in East China is 83.1 tons, a 4.83 - ton increase compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position has decreased [8][9]. 3.3今日关注 (Today's Focus) - No specific content provided for this section. 3.4基本面数据 (Fundamental Data) 3.4.1 PX Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the PX supply - demand situation from September 2025 to June 2026, including production, import, demand, inventory change, domestic utilization rate, and balance with polyester [12]. 3.4.2 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It presents the monthly balance of PTA from October 2025 to September 2026, covering total production, import, export, consumption, surplus, year - on - year changes in production and consumption, and cumulative year - on - year changes [13]. 3.4.3 Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It details the monthly balance of ethylene glycol from October 1, 2025, to September 1, 2026, including production, import, consumption, surplus, and various year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes [14]. 3.5影响因素总结 (Summary of Influencing Factors) - **Likely Positive Factors**: The 700,000 - ton plant of Gulei Petrochemical will be shut down for maintenance from early March, expected to last until around the end of April [10]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The 1,000,000 - ton PTA plant of Nengtou resumed operation last week [11]. 3.6价格相关 (Price - Related) - It includes historical price charts of PET bottle chips (market price, production margin, operating rate, inventory), PTA (month - to - month spread, basis), MEG (month - to - month spread, basis), and spot spreads (TA - EG, p - xylene processing spread) [16][17][18][20][23][26][29][32][36][39]. 3.7库存分析 (Inventory Analysis) - It shows the historical inventory data of PTA (factory inventory), MEG (port inventory), PET chips (factory inventory), and polyester products (DTY, FDY, short - fiber inventory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms) [42][43][44][46]. 3.8聚酯上下游开工 (Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates) - **Upstream**: It includes the historical operating rates of PTA, p - xylene, and ethylene glycol [53][54][56]. - **Downstream**: It shows the historical capacity utilization rates of polyester and the operating rates of chemical fiber textile enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [57][58]. 3.9利润情况 (Profit Situation) - It presents the historical profit data of PTA (processing fee), MEG (production margins of different production methods), polyester fiber short - fiber, and polyester fiber long - filament (DTY, POY, FDY production margins) [59][60][61][64][65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side shows that the domestic refineries' asphalt production is decreasing, which reduces supply pressure. The demand is currently below the historical average level. The cost side has the support of rising crude oil prices in the short - term. It is expected that the asphalt 2603 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3393 - 3455 in the short - term [8][9]. - The factors are mixed. The positives include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support and the reduction of supply pressure due to refinery production cuts. The negatives are the lack of demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward trend in demand with the strengthening expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In February 2026, the domestic refineries' asphalt production is 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of the sample is 27.325%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The national sample enterprises' shipment is 214,450 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.80%. The sample enterprises' production is 456,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.20%. The estimated maintenance volume of the sample enterprises' devices is 1.022 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%. Refineries have reduced production this week, and supply pressure may decrease next week [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 25.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 is 3.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 is 5.7161%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 14%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 18%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 128.13 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 85.30%. The weekly delayed - coking profit of Shandong refineries is 16.1943 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 81.75%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support [9]. - **Basis**: On January 30th, the Shandong spot price is 3,260 yuan/ton, and the 03 - contract basis is - 164 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 892,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%. The refinery inventory is 602,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14%. The port diluted - asphalt inventory is 840,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 90.91%. The social inventory continues to accumulate, the refinery inventory continues to decline, and the port inventory continues to accumulate [9]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the 03 - contract futures price closes above the MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position decreases [9]. - **Expectation**: Refineries have reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is difficult to boost, and overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish. Inventory continues to decline. Crude oil strengthens, and cost support strengthens in the short - term. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, and the asphalt 2603 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3393 - 3455 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Price Overview**: The report provides the price, change, and change rate of different asphalt contracts (such as 12 - contract, 11 - contract, etc.), as well as the price, change, and change rate of asphalt in different regions (such as North China, South China, etc.), downstream demand开工率, asphalt coking profit, weekly shipment volume, weekly production, and inventory data [16]. - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2026 [19][20]. - **Spread Analysis**: It includes the spread trends of the main contracts (1 - 6, 6 - 12), the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil, the crude - oil cracking spread, and the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [22][25][28][32]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Regional Market Price Trend**: It shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt prices in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026 [35][36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026 [37][38]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026 [40][42]. - **Supply - side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt shipment volume from 2020 to 2026 [43][44]. - **Diluted - Asphalt Port Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of domestic diluted - asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 [46][47]. - **Production**: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 to 2026 [49][50]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production**: It shows the historical trends of Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026 [52][54]. - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical trends of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [55][57]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: It shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2026 [58][59]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2026 [61][62]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and refinery inventory) from 2019 to 2026 [64][65]. - **Social Inventory and Refinery Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and refinery inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2026 [68][69]. - **Refinery Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: It shows the historical trends of the refinery inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2026 [72][73]. - **Import and Export Situation**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2019 to 2026 [75][76][79]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [81][82]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It shows the historical trends of apparent asphalt consumption from 2019 to 2025 [84][85]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 [87][88]. - **New Local Special Bonds**: It shows the historical trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2025 [89]. - **Infrastructure Investment Completion**: It shows the year - on - year change trends of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024 [89]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt - concrete paver sales volume, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales volume, and road - roller sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [91][92][94]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: It shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2026 [96][97]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use**: It shows the historical trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2026 [99][100]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation**: It shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt capacity utilization rate, shoe - material TPR capacity utilization rate, road - modified asphalt capacity utilization rate, and waterproofing - membrane capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2026 [102][103][104]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly asphalt production, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, refinery inventory, and diluted - asphalt port inventory from October 2024 to January 2026 [106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Coking Coal**: The current production of coking enterprises is still below expectations, and the actual demand for raw coal has not significantly improved. With the decline in hot metal production this week and weak rigid demand, the downstream market mainly replenishes inventory as needed. Considering the general demand for downstream finished products and the decline in steel mill profits, the downstream market has insufficient support for coking coal prices. It is expected that coking coal prices may remain stable in the short term [2]. - **Coke**: After the first round of coke price increase was finally implemented after a long - term game, the profit per ton of coke in coking plants has slightly increased. Most coking enterprises have maintained their previous operating rates, and coke supply is relatively stable. Under the background of weak demand, traders and steel mills are relatively cautious in purchasing, but the current transportation and shipment are smooth, and there is no obvious inventory pressure in the plants. It is expected that coke prices may remain stable and slightly strengthen in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Domestic coal mines maintain a stable production rhythm before the Spring Festival. Downstream winter storage and inventory replenishment are nearing completion, the purchase volume of coking coal is gradually decreasing, and the willingness of intermediate links to sell has increased. The market sentiment has slightly weakened. Recently, the online auction transactions have been average, with more price drops than increases. Coal mines with high prices have difficulty in selling, and some coal mines with slow price cuts still have price - make - up drops. However, since most coal mines have pre - sold orders and no inventory pressure, they have a strong willingness to hold prices. The evaluation is neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1180, and the basis is 24.5. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price. The evaluation is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 801000 tons, port inventory is 295000 tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 861000 tons, and the total sample inventory is 1957000 tons, a decrease of 21000 tons from last week. The evaluation is bullish [2]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average. The evaluation is neutral [3]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net short, and the short position is decreasing. The evaluation is bearish [3]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: After the first round of coke price increase was implemented, the profit per ton of coke in coking plants has slightly increased. Most coking enterprises have maintained their previous operating rates, and coke supply is relatively stable. Under the background of weak demand, traders and steel mills are relatively cautious in purchasing, but the current transportation and shipment are smooth, and there is no obvious inventory pressure in the plants. The evaluation is bullish [7]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1620, and the basis is - 101.5. The spot price is at a discount to the futures price. The evaluation is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 626000 tons, port inventory is 187000 tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 45000 tons, and the total sample inventory is 858000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons from last week. The evaluation is bullish [7]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average. The evaluation is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net long, and the long position is increasing. The evaluation is bullish [7]. 3.2 Price Coking Coal - On January 30 (17:30), the price of imported Russian coking coal at various ports is provided, such as the price of K4 main coking coal at Caofeidian Port, Jingtang Port, and Rizhao Port is 1300. The price of imported Australian coking coal at various ports is also provided, like the price of Heishui 1/3 coking coal at Caofeidian Port and Rizhao Port is 1230 [10]. Coke - On January 30 (17:30), the port metallurgical coke price index shows that the prices of various grades of metallurgical coke at different ports have different changes, such as the price of secondary metallurgical coke from Inner Mongolia at a certain port increased by 50 [11]. 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 295000 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1000 tons from last week [19]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 819300 tons, a decrease of 69200 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [23]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803800 tons, an increase of 4300 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626700 tons, a decrease of 13300 tons from last week [28]. 3.4 Other Indicators - **Coking Plant Capacity Utilization Rate**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprise samples nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].