2026年1月5日 周报 期货研究报告 甲醇：港口库存高位上升，震荡运行 蒯三可 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015369 kuaisanke@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：上周港口甲醇市场继续走强，其中江苏价格波动区间在2120-2240元/吨，广东价 格波动在2100-2190元/吨。外轮卸货较为顺畅，港口甲醇库存继续累积，前期利空出尽，加之进口量存减量 预期，提振市场偏强运行。内地甲醇价格延续下滑，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1800-1845元/吨； 下游东营接货价格波动区间2100-2125元/吨。受元旦小长假临近、运费坚挺影响，上游为促出货主动降价， 内蒙古出厂跌至新低；虽买盘逢低刚需采购，但交投氛围清淡。前期快速下行后，受补空、刚需补货及内蒙 古部分烯烃询价带动，市场情绪回暖，上游多数竞拍溢价成交，买盘跟进改善，放量良好。局部推涨后新单 趋缓，以消化合同量为主。 展望：甲醇企业整体利润不佳，国内甲醇开工预期高位维持，中东季节性限气落地，1月份港口到货预 期下降，本周甲醇下游整体需求预计有所上升。甲醇供应充裕，港口库存高位上升。预计甲醇价格近期震荡 运行，05合约上方压力23 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 中辉能化观点 品种 核心观点 主要逻辑 PX/PTA ★ 谨慎追空 PTA 加工费整体偏低，装置检修力度较大（虹港石化检修、逸盛宁波停车 检修 5 周、逸盛大连、逸盛海南装置停车中，英力士、四川能投、独山能 源 1#检修中），供应端压力有所缓解；下游需求相对较好但预期走弱（织 造订单持续下行）。成本端支撑弱化。短期来看，供需偏紧，但 12 月存 累库预期。 乙二醇 ★ 偏空 国内乙二醇装置整体开工负荷下降（茂名石化月初停车 2 月，中海壳牌 2 期本周停车检修 10 天，中化泉州停车 2 月，富德能源本周停车检修，盛 虹炼化 100 万吨装置停车至明年 5 月。值得注意的是，煤化工前期检修装 置复产，整体有所提负），海外装置整体也略有降负（台湾中纤、东联停 车，伊朗 Morvarid12 月上停车检修 3 周、Farsa 计划 12 月底停车检修 2-3 周；美国南亚装置停车中、GCGV 降负运行）；下游需求相对较好但预期 走弱。12 月存累库预期。乙二醇估值偏低，但缺乏向上驱动。短期跟随成 本波动，原油短期反弹但不改承压态势。 甲醇 ★ 偏空 太仓现货止跌，港口库存环比 ...

2025年12月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为21939吨，环比增长0.33%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为103681吨，环比减少0.63%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为18842 吨，环比减少2.68%。 成本端来看，外购锂辉石精矿成本为93764元/吨，日环比减少0.52%,生产所得为-1810元/吨，有所亏损；外 购锂云母成本为92638元/吨，日环比持平，生产所得为-2982元/吨，有所亏损；回收端生产成本普遍大于矿 石端成本，生产所得为负，排产积极性较低；盐湖端季度现金生产成本为31477元/吨，盐湖端成本显著低于矿 石端，盈利 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned output of asphalt from local refineries in November 2025 is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 30.8006%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points. Refineries have reduced production this week, which will reduce supply pressure next week [8]. - On the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 29%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 6.6%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 11.2169%, a month - on - month increase of 0.79 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 34%, unchanged from the previous month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 33%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00 percentage point [8]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 562.55 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.81%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 915.1743 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 14.48%. Asphalt processing losses have increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. Crude oil has weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [8]. - Overall, due to factors such as reduced supply pressure, low demand, and weakened cost support, it is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 contract fluctuating in the range of 3034 - 3082 [8]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: The planned output of local refinery asphalt in November 2025 is 1.312 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. This week, the capacity utilization rate decreased, production decreased, and the estimated maintenance volume increased, reducing supply pressure [8]. - **Demand**: The开工率 of various types of asphalt and related products is mostly lower than the historical average, indicating that the overall demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The asphalt processing profit is negative and increasing, the delayed coking profit is increasing, the profit difference is increasing, and crude oil is weakening, so the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - **Basis**: On November 20, the Shandong spot price was 3030 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 28 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is decreasing, while the in - factory inventory and port inventory are increasing [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 contract fluctuating in the range of 3034 - 3082 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the current values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators of asphalt contracts, including futures closing prices, basis, inventory, production, and开工率. For example, the 01 contract price is 3058 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.43%; the social inventory is 82.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.03% [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from January 1 to December 31, 2020 - 2025, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [18][19]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The historical spread trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from January 2 to December 30, 2020 - 2025 are shown, which is useful for spread trading analysis [22][23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from January 3 to November 21, 2020 - 2025 are presented, helping to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from January 2 to December 30, 2020 - 2025 are shown, which is important for understanding the profitability of refining [28][29][30]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from January 2 to December 30, 2020 - 2025 are presented, providing a reference for price comparison [32][34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from January 2 to December 27, 2020 - 2025 is shown, reflecting the price changes in the local asphalt market [35][36]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical asphalt profit from January 1 to December 26, 2019 - 2025 is presented, showing the profitability of asphalt production [38][39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical spread trend of coking - asphalt profit from January 1 to December 29, 2020 - 2025 is shown, which is helpful for analyzing the profit difference between coking and asphalt production [41][42][43]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt from January 1 to December 29, 2020 - 2025 is presented, reflecting the supply situation in the market [44][45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from January 3 to December 30, 2021 - 2025 is shown, which is important for understanding the supply of raw materials [46][47]. - **Production Volume**: The historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from January 1, 2019 - 2025 are presented, showing the overall supply capacity [49][50]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The historical price of Marine crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil from January 1 to December 26, 2018 - 2025 are shown, which is related to the raw material supply of asphalt [53][54][55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The historical production of local refinery asphalt from January to December, 2019 - 2025 is presented, reflecting the production capacity of local refineries [56][57]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from January 3 to December 27, 2021 - 2025 is shown, indicating the production efficiency of the industry [59][60]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The historical maintenance loss estimation of asphalt from January 1 to December 27, 2018 - 2025 is presented, which is related to the supply adjustment of the industry [61][62]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: The historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from January 2 to December 26, 2019 - 2025 are shown, reflecting the inventory situation in the futures market [64][66][67]. - **Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory**: The historical social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from January 3 to December 23, 2022 - 2025 are presented, showing the overall inventory situation [68][69]. - **In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The historical in - factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from January 1 to December 27, 2018 - 2025 is shown, which is useful for analyzing the inventory turnover [71][72]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: The historical export and import trends of asphalt from January to December, 2019 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the international trade situation of asphalt [74][75]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The historical spread trend of South Korean asphalt imports from January 1 to December 26, 2020 - 2025 is shown, which is important for analyzing the import cost [78][79]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The historical production of petroleum coke from January to December, 2019 - 2025 is presented, which is related to the demand for asphalt as a by - product [80][81]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical apparent consumption of asphalt from January to December, 2019 - 2025 is shown, reflecting the overall market demand [83][84]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Related Indicators**: The historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which are related to the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [86][87][88]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The historical sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, and the sales volume of domestic excavators from 2019 - 2025 are shown, reflecting the demand for asphalt in construction machinery [90][91][93]. - **Asphalt开工率** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工率**: The historical heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 from January 1 to December 25, 2019 - 2025 is presented, reflecting the production activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [95][96]. - **Asphalt开工率 by Use**: The historical开工率 of construction asphalt, modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 is shown, which is related to different application scenarios of asphalt [98][99]. - **Downstream开工率**: The historical开工率 of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane modified asphalt, etc. from 2019 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the demand in the downstream market [100][101][103]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to November 2025 is provided, including monthly production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream demand, which helps to understand the overall supply - demand relationship in the market [105][106].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both industrial silicon and lithium carbonate futures are currently in a large - range oscillatory operation. For industrial silicon, the 2511 contract is expected to operate between 7,700 and 10,000, and for lithium carbonate, the 2511 contract is expected to operate between 65,000 and 100,000 [6][31][32]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - Mid - term trend: Industrial silicon futures are in large - range oscillatory operation. The spot price increased last week. As of September 19, the 421 price in Xinjiang was 9,000 yuan/ton, in Yunnan 9,800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan 9,900 yuan/ton. The AI report shows the daily price is in a sideways phase, and the main long - position camp has a slight advantage. The 2511 contract is expected to operate between 7,700 and 10,000 [6][7]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week's strategy: Trade by buying at low prices in the large - range operation. - This week's strategy: Trade by buying at low prices in the large - range operation [10][11]. - **Related Data** - As of April 19, 2024, SHFE cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 25.73%, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [13][17]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - Mid - term trend: Lithium carbonate futures are in large - range oscillatory operation. The spot price increased last week. As of September 19, the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,250 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade was 71,600 yuan/ton. The AI report shows the futures are in a downward channel, and there is no obvious long - short bias among the main players. The 2511 contract is expected to operate between 65,000 and 100,000 [31][32]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week's strategy: Consider grid trading within the range. - This week's strategy: Consider grid trading within the range [35]. - **Related Data** - As of April 19, 2024, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 66.03%, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [37][38].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the domestic PTA futures market is experiencing slight fluctuations, with the main contract priced at 4686.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a minor increase of 0.04% [1] - Supply side analysis shows that the PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate is at 74.95%, an increase of 4.30% from the previous week, with domestic PTA production reaching 138.8 million tons, up by 7.77 million tons [1] - Demand side insights reveal that polyester plant operations have seen minor fluctuations, with polyester load recovering to 91.6%, while terminal operations in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remain stable, and raw material stocking is cautious [1] Group 2 - Inventory analysis indicates that PTA inventory has slightly decreased but remains high overall, with social inventory days at 10.84 days (down by 0.11 days) and factory inventory days at 3.84 days (down by 0.06 days) [1] - The outlook for the PTA market suggests that while downstream operations have recovered to 91.6%, terminal operations remain limited, with weaving machine operations unchanged at 66%, leading to a slight increase in downstream inventory [2] - The processing fee for PTA has decreased significantly, currently around 120 yuan/ton, and low processing fees are expected to impact operations, with potential maintenance plans for facilities like INEOS [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Methanol**: The current trading logic is the transmission of port pressure to the inland. Although there is seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment in the inland later, the port will continuously form a reverse flow impact. The current price is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland behavior is crucial. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but the inventory is still accumulating. The reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will impact the inland valuation. Currently, the valuation and inventory are average, and the driving force is weak. Wait before bottom - fishing, considering import variables such as India's purchase of Iranian methanol and unplanned maintenance [2]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. The upstream is destocking, and the social inventory is flat. The downstream raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The foreign markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differences are fluctuating. The LD is weak. The maintenance in September is flat compared to the previous period, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Pay attention to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. The pressure from new devices in 2025 is large, and focus on the commissioning of new devices [6]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The upstream and mid - stream of polypropylene are destocking. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. The export situation has been good this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral. The European and American markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, the propylene price is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up is stable. The拉丝 production arrangement is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The downstream orders are average currently, and the raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If the export volume continues to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [8]. - **PVC**: The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. The downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The mid - upstream inventory is continuously accumulating. The northwest devices have seasonal overhauls in summer, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high - production period in Q1. In Q4, focus on the commissioning and export sustainability. The recent export orders have declined slightly. The coal sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The export counter - offer of caustic soda is FOB380. Pay attention to whether the subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro situation is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From August 28 to September 3, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price increased from 2235 to 2253, the South China spot price increased from 2255 to 2250, the Lunan converted - to - futures price remained at 2505 on most days with a 10 - point increase on September 3, the Southwest converted - to - futures price remained at 2480 on most days with a 5 - point increase on September 2, the Hebei converted - to - futures price decreased by 30 points on September 3, the Northwest converted - to - futures price increased from 2655 to 2658, the CFR China price remained at 259 on most days with a 1 - point increase on September 2, and the CFR Southeast Asia price remained at 322. The import profit increased from 1 to 16, the main contract basis increased from - 140 to - 135, and the MTO profit on the disk remained at - 1237 [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From August 28 to September 3, 2025, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 840 on most days. The North China LL price remained at 7170 on September 1 - 3 after a decline, the East China LL price decreased from 7350 to 7285, the East China LD price decreased from 9625 to 9600, the East China HD price decreased from 7550 to 7430, the LL US dollar price remained at 860, the LL US Gulf price remained at 840. The import profit decreased from - 150 to - 218, the main futures price decreased from 7358 to 7247, the basis decreased from - 140 to - 100, the two - oil inventory remained at 65, and the warehouse receipt remained at 8263 on September 2 - 3 [6]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From August 28 to September 3, 2025, the Shandong propylene price remained at 6550 on most days with a 30 - point increase on September 1. The Northeast Asian propylene price remained at 760. The East China PP price decreased from 6920 to 6885, the North China PP price decreased from 6983 to 6928, the Shandong powder price decreased from 6830 to 6780, the East China copolymer price decreased from 7190 to 7140, the PP US dollar price remained at 860, the PP US Gulf price remained at 980. The export profit increased from - 22 to - 14, the main futures price decreased from 7020 to 6954, the basis remained at - 90 on most days with a 10 - point increase on September 1, the two - oil inventory decreased from 67 to 65, and the warehouse receipt decreased from 14055 to 13802 [8]. PVC - **Price Data**: From August 28 to September 3, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price decreased from 2350 to 2300 on September 1. The Shandong caustic soda price decreased from 887 to 882 on September 1. The calcium carbide - based PVC price in East China decreased from 4780 to 4760, the ethylene - based PVC price in East China remained at 5500, the calcium carbide - based PVC price in South China remained at 5450, the calcium carbide - based PVC price in the Northwest decreased from 4500 to 4470 on September 2. The import US dollar price (CFR China) remained at 710, the export profit increased from 481 to 523, the Northwest comprehensive profit remained at 356, the North China comprehensive profit remained at - 244, and the basis (high - end delivery product) remained at - 160 [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, port inventory has significantly accumulated, imports are high, and inland supply is expected to return. As traditional demand enters the peak season, attention should be paid to whether demand can support after the return of inland supply. If inventory deteriorates significantly, methanol may experience a valuation decline [1]. - For polyethylene, overall inventory is neutral, 09 basis is around -110 in North China and -50 in East China, external markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable, import profit is around -200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection molding prices are stable, other spreads are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotations, as well as the commissioning of new devices in 2025 [7]. - For polypropylene, upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is -60, non - standard spreads are neutral, import profit is around -700, and exports have been good this year. PDH profit is around -400, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. Future supply is expected to increase slightly, and downstream orders are average. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls, supply pressure can be alleviated [7]. - For PVC, the basis is maintained at 01 - 270, downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in Q4, and static inventory contradictions are accumulating slowly. Cost is stable, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro situation is neutral [7]. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From August 25 - 29, 2025,动力煤期货 remained at 801, Jiangsu spot price dropped from 2302 to 2222, and other regional prices also showed certain changes. Import profit remained at 322, and the daily change of盘面MTO profit was 0 [1]. - **Analysis**: Port inventory accumulation is obvious, imports are high, and inland supply is expected to return. Traditional demand will enter the peak season later, and attention should be paid to the relationship between supply and demand and inventory changes [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From August 25 - 29, 2025, Northeast Asia ethylene remained at 840 (except for a slight increase on August 27), and prices of various regions in China and related indicators such as import profit, basis, and inventory also changed. The主力期货 price dropped by 71 on August 29 compared with August 25 [7]. - **Analysis**: Overall inventory is neutral, external markets are stable, import profit has no further increase, non - standard HD injection molding prices are stable, and LD is weakening. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion, US quotations, and new device commissioning [7]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From August 25 - 29, 2025, prices of raw materials such as Shandong propylene and Northeast Asia propylene, and prices of various regions in China and related indicators such as export profit, basis, and inventory all changed. The主力期货 price dropped by 46 on August 29 compared with August 25 [7]. - **Analysis**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing, the basis is -60, non - standard spreads are neutral, imports are at a loss, and exports are good. Future supply is expected to increase slightly, and downstream orders are average. Supply pressure can be alleviated under certain conditions [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From August 25 - 29, 2025, prices of raw materials such as Northwest calcium carbide and Shandong caustic soda, and prices of different production methods in various regions and related indicators such as export profit, comprehensive profit, and basis all changed. The price of电石 - based PVC in East China dropped by 20 on August 29 compared with August 25 [7]. - **Analysis**: The basis is maintained at a certain level, downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, mid - and upstream inventories are accumulating, and attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in Q4, as well as cost, downstream performance, and the macro situation [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - For methanol, port inventory has significantly accumulated, imports are high leading to high inventory, and the expected return of inland supply is on the horizon. As traditional demand enters the peak season later, it's necessary to focus on whether demand can support after the return of inland supply. If inventory deteriorates significantly, methanol may experience a valuation decline [1] - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year-on-year, with the upstream accumulating inventory and the coal - chemical sector reducing inventory. The overall inventory is neutral, with the 09 basis around -150 in North China and -100 in East China. Import profit is around -100 with no further increase for now. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [5] - For polypropylene, the upstream two - oil inventory is accumulating while the mid - stream is reducing inventory. The basis is -60, and the non - standard price difference is neutral. Exports have been good this year. With over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated to neutral if exports continue to expand or PDH device maintenance increases [5] - For PVC, the basis remains at 09 - 150, and the downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening. The mid - upstream inventory reduction has slowed down. Attention should be paid to production commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, and factors such as exports, coal prices, and terminal orders should be monitored [5] Summary by Product Methanol - Price data shows that from 2025/08/12 to 2025/08/18, the daily change of动力煤期货is 0, Jiangsu spot drops by 18, and other regional prices also have different degrees of decline [1] Polyethylene - From 2025/08/12 to 2025/08/18, Northeast Asia ethylene price remains unchanged, while prices in North China LL and East China LL decline, and other data also show corresponding changes [5] Polypropylene - From 2025/08/12 to 2025/08/18, Shandong propylene and Northeast Asia propylene prices remain stable, while prices in East China PP and other regions decline, and the basis changes from -50 to -60 [5] PVC - From 2025/08/12 to 2025/08/18, Northwest calcium carbide price drops by 50, Shandong caustic soda price rises by 20, and other prices also show corresponding changes, with the basis (high - end delivery product) changing from -70 to -170 [5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The glass futures market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term, with a tug - of - war between weak reality and policy expectations. Mid - term directional breakthroughs depend on the actual implementation of capacity - clearing policies and the substantial recovery of demand during the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". The market's kinetic energy conversion depends on inventory reduction rates and the pace of macro - level positive news realization [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On August 13, 2025, the FG2601 glass futures contract oscillated around the moving average during the night and early sessions. In the afternoon, short - sellers gained the upper hand, pushing the price down to the daily low and closing with a negative line. The price dropped by 19 yuan/ton, a 1.54% decline, and closed at 1214 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 2.2177 million lots, and the open interest was 1.0237 million lots [2] 3.1.2 Variety Prices - All 12 glass futures contracts closed lower. The total open interest of the variety was 1.8795 million lots, a decrease of 59,402 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract FG2601 increased by 88,800 lots [5] 3.1.3 Related Quotes - On the day, put options on glass outperformed call options [8] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of glass continued to be weak. Prices in Northeast China remained stable, while prices in other regions were under pressure and declined [10] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Supply - Demand Factors - Supply side: The daily melting volume of float glass in production reached 159,600 tons, a 0.38% increase month - on - month. The operating rate was 75.34%, and the capacity utilization rate was 79.78%. The weekly output increased by 0.16% to 1.117 million tons. In August, there were 2 cold - repaired and 2 restarted production lines, with capacity remaining basically unchanged. Demand side: The demand for real - estate completion did not improve. Deep - processing enterprises faced difficulties in collecting funds, and new orders decreased year - on - year. They mainly focused on consuming raw - sheet inventories [11] 3.3.2 Inventory Analysis - The overall inventory of glass enterprises increased from a downward trend. It rose by 2.348 million weight boxes, a 3.95% increase, reaching a total of 61.847 million weight boxes. Inventories of glass enterprises in all regions increased [13]