Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - For methanol, port inventory has significantly accumulated, imports are high leading to high inventory, and the expected return of inland supply is on the horizon. As traditional demand enters the peak season later, it's necessary to focus on whether demand can support after the return of inland supply. If inventory deteriorates significantly, methanol may experience a valuation decline [1] - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year-on-year, with the upstream accumulating inventory and the coal - chemical sector reducing inventory. The overall inventory is neutral, with the 09 basis around -150 in North China and -100 in East China. Import profit is around -100 with no further increase for now. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [5] - For polypropylene, the upstream two - oil inventory is accumulating while the mid - stream is reducing inventory. The basis is -60, and the non - standard price difference is neutral. Exports have been good this year. With over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated to neutral if exports continue to expand or PDH device maintenance increases [5] - For PVC, the basis remains at 09 - 150, and the downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening. The mid - upstream inventory reduction has slowed down. Attention should be paid to production commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, and factors such as exports, coal prices, and terminal orders should be monitored [5] Summary by Product Methanol - Price data shows that from 2025/08/12 to 2025/08/18, the daily change of动力煤期货is 0, Jiangsu spot drops by 18, and other regional prices also have different degrees of decline [1] Polyethylene - From 2025/08/12 to 2025/08/18, Northeast Asia ethylene price remains unchanged, while prices in North China LL and East China LL decline, and other data also show corresponding changes [5] Polypropylene - From 2025/08/12 to 2025/08/18, Shandong propylene and Northeast Asia propylene prices remain stable, while prices in East China PP and other regions decline, and the basis changes from -50 to -60 [5] PVC - From 2025/08/12 to 2025/08/18, Northwest calcium carbide price drops by 50, Shandong caustic soda price rises by 20, and other prices also show corresponding changes, with the basis (high - end delivery product) changing from -70 to -170 [5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The glass futures market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term, with a tug - of - war between weak reality and policy expectations. Mid - term directional breakthroughs depend on the actual implementation of capacity - clearing policies and the substantial recovery of demand during the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". The market's kinetic energy conversion depends on inventory reduction rates and the pace of macro - level positive news realization [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On August 13, 2025, the FG2601 glass futures contract oscillated around the moving average during the night and early sessions. In the afternoon, short - sellers gained the upper hand, pushing the price down to the daily low and closing with a negative line. The price dropped by 19 yuan/ton, a 1.54% decline, and closed at 1214 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 2.2177 million lots, and the open interest was 1.0237 million lots [2] 3.1.2 Variety Prices - All 12 glass futures contracts closed lower. The total open interest of the variety was 1.8795 million lots, a decrease of 59,402 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract FG2601 increased by 88,800 lots [5] 3.1.3 Related Quotes - On the day, put options on glass outperformed call options [8] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of glass continued to be weak. Prices in Northeast China remained stable, while prices in other regions were under pressure and declined [10] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Supply - Demand Factors - Supply side: The daily melting volume of float glass in production reached 159,600 tons, a 0.38% increase month - on - month. The operating rate was 75.34%, and the capacity utilization rate was 79.78%. The weekly output increased by 0.16% to 1.117 million tons. In August, there were 2 cold - repaired and 2 restarted production lines, with capacity remaining basically unchanged. Demand side: The demand for real - estate completion did not improve. Deep - processing enterprises faced difficulties in collecting funds, and new orders decreased year - on - year. They mainly focused on consuming raw - sheet inventories [11] 3.3.2 Inventory Analysis - The overall inventory of glass enterprises increased from a downward trend. It rose by 2.348 million weight boxes, a 3.95% increase, reaching a total of 61.847 million weight boxes. Inventories of glass enterprises in all regions increased [13]

1. Report Industrial Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is increasing, with an expected increase in production scheduling next week due to fewer planned maintenance activities. The current demand may remain sluggish, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4915 - 5025. The market outlook is bearish [7][8][9]. - The bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The bearish factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [12][13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 79.46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 336,105 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.55%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 139,810 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.48%. Supply pressure increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase significantly next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.800 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, and films were 36.91%, 32.09%, and 76.92% respectively, with varying degrees of decline compared to the previous period, while the operating rate of downstream paste resin was 74.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.720 percentage points. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 252.2756 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 104.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 488.965 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 2.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,690.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 0.20%, higher than the historical average, which may lead to an increase in production scheduling [8]. - **Other Aspects**: On August 14, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 174 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Factory inventory was 337,163 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.36%, while social inventory was 480,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.32%. The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions. The overall cost is weakening, and the PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4915 - 5025 [9]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the PVC market, including prices, production, inventory, and operating rates of different regions and methods. For example, the prices of various PVC products in different regions showed varying degrees of decline compared to the previous period, and the production of calcium carbide and ethylene methods both increased [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the PVC futures basis, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [17]. - **Price and Volume Trends**: It presents the price and trading volume trends of PVC futures, including the opening, high, low, and closing prices, as well as the moving average trends [21]. - **Spread Analysis**: Analyzes the spread trends of the main contracts of PVC futures, such as the 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads [23]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost, profit, operating rate, and inventory trends of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [26][29][31][33]. - **Supply Trend**: Analyzes the production capacity utilization rate, production, and profit trends of calcium carbide and ethylene methods in PVC production, as well as the daily and weekly production and maintenance volume trends of PVC [38][41]. - **Demand Trend**: Studies the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rate trends of PVC, as well as the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment, infrastructure investment, and other macro - economic indicators [43][45][54]. - **Inventory Situation**: Analyzes the inventory trends of exchange warrants, calcium carbide factory warehouses, ethylene factory warehouses, and social inventories, as well as the inventory days of production enterprises [58]. - **Ethylene Method - Related**: Presents the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and relevant price spread trends in the ethylene method [60]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Displays the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned asphalt production in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The capacity utilization rate has increased this week, and the refineries have increased production, which will increase supply pressure next week [8]. - The demand side indicates that the current demand is lower than the historical average, with the heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membrane开工率 (operating rates) mostly lower than the historical average, while the modified asphalt and road - modified asphalt开工率 are higher [8]. - The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 696.98 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.00%, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 760.1786 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10.25%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term cost support is expected to weaken [9]. - It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 fluctuating in the range of 3505 - 3551 [10]. - There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factor is that the relatively high - level crude oil cost provides some support; the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of the economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The planned production in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The weekly capacity utilization rate is 34.7555%, with a month - on - month increase of 3.835 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 580,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 12.40%, and the device maintenance volume is estimated to be 604,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.91% [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 33.1%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points; the building asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 16.1987%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.74 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 27%, unchanged month - on - month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 29%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.00 percentage point. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 696.98 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.00%, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 760.1786 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10.25% [9]. - **Expectation**: The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 fluctuating in the range of 3505 - 3551 [10]. - **Other Factors**: The positive factor is the relatively high - level crude oil cost; the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of the economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Fundamentals**: Bearish, as the supply pressure is high and the demand recovery is weak [8][15]. - **Basis**: On August 7, the Shandong spot price is 3760 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract is 232 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Bullish [11]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1.343 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%; the in - factory inventory is 700,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.18%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 110,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 31.25%. All inventories are decreasing. Bullish [11]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the 10 - contract futures price closes below the MA20. Bearish [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position increases. Bullish [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Glass [1] - Report Cycle: Daily - Date: August 1, 2025 - Researcher: He Ning (Qualification No.: F0238922; Investment Consulting Certificate No.: Z0001219) [1] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 3. Core View - In the short - term, the glass futures may continue to show a weak trend. Supply - demand imbalance and cooling policy expectations will continue to drag down prices. With technical breakdown and short - selling capital pressure, the lower support levels will be tested. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the sentiment transmission effect in the commodity market, the rhythm of spot inventory reduction, and the actual implementation strength of capacity - reduction policies [10]. 4. Summary by Section 4.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On August 1, 2025, the FG2509 glass contract continued to be weak. After opening, the price dropped continuously, breaking through the key support level of 1,100 yuan/ton during the session and closing with a negative line. It fell 44 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price, a decline of 3.84%, with a closing price of 1,102 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 2.616 million lots, and the open interest was 1.1692 million lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: All 12 glass futures contracts declined today, with the decline ranging from 1.92% to 4.59%. The market was dominated by bearish sentiment. The total open interest of the variety was 1.7858 million lots, an increase of 99,794 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract FG2509 increased by 67,900 lots [4]. - **关联行情**: On the same day, the put options of glass options increased significantly in open interest, and the put options performed stronger than the call options [6]. 4.2 Spot Market - In the Shahe area, the spot trading of glass was light, the transaction center of gravity moved down, and the overall demand price remained stable [8]. 4.3 Influencing Factors - **Supply - demand Factors**: On the supply side, the current daily melting volume of float glass in production has risen to 159,600 tons, with an operating rate of 75% and a capacity utilization rate of 79.78%. The weekly average profit of float glass using coal - gas and petroleum coke as fuel exceeded 100 yuan, and the loss of natural - gas - fueled glass narrowed. On the demand side, the real - estate terminal orders were insufficient, the deep - processing orders only rebounded slightly, and the inventory remained at a high level, indicating limited actual digestion capacity [9]. - **Inventory Analysis**: The inventory of glass enterprises reached a new low recently, decreasing by 2.397 million weight - boxes to 59.499 million weight - boxes. However, this was mainly due to the transfer of inventory to traders, and the actual terminal digestion was limited [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are bullish. The supply pressure has been reduced recently due to refinery production cuts, but it may increase next week. The current demand is below the historical average. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. It is expected that the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate narrowly in the range of 3596 - 3634 [7][8]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.539 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 30.9204%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.36 percentage points. The sample enterprises' output was 516,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.79%, and the estimated device maintenance volume was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.85%. Refineries have reduced production this week, reducing supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 28.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the construction rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 14.4572%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09 percentage points; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 27%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 30%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 547.8 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 847.0529 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.28%. The processing loss of asphalt increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - **Basis**: On July 25, the spot price in Shandong was 3,780 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 165 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.352 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.50%; the in - factory inventory was 723,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.99%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 160,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.80%. The social inventory continued to accumulate, while the in - factory and port inventories continued to decline [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net long, with a decrease in long positions [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3596 - 3634 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the previous day's market overview data, including futures contract prices, inventory, production, and other indicators and their changes [14][15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [18][20]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 [29][30]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil - Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [34]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - It shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [36]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [38]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [42]. - **Supply Side**: - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46]. - **Production**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [49]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It shows the historical price trend of Marey crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [54]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical production of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [56]. - **Operating Rate**: It shows the historical weekly operating rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [59]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss**: It shows the historical trend of estimated maintenance loss of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [61]. - **Inventory**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: It shows the historical trends of the total, social, and factory warehouse receipts of asphalt on the exchange from 2019 to 2025 [64][66]. - **Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [68]. - **In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It shows the historical trend of the in - factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [71]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - It shows the historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025 [74]. - It shows the historical trend of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [77]. - **Demand Side**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [80]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [83]. - **Downstream Demand**: - It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [86][87]. - It shows the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly operating hours of excavators, and the domestic excavator sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [90][92]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: It shows the historical operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [95]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: It shows the historical operating rates of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [97]. - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: It shows the historical operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [99][101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to July 2025, including production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, and downstream demand [104].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For silicon - manganese, the short - term market is dominated by sentiment, with prices oscillating strongly. However, the supply - demand situation will gradually return to a loose state, and the medium - term price may face downward pressure. The reference range for the main contract is [5500, 6000] [3][4]. - For silicon - iron, the short - term market is also sentiment - driven, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited. The market is expected to operate within a range, with the reference range for the main contract being [5300, 5750] [49][50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon - Manganese - **Supply - Demand Analysis** - Supply: National production and operating rates continued to rise, with more restarts in Yunnan. The overall supply is at a high level for the same period [3][10]. - Demand: The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises decreased to 239.81 tons, but the absolute level is still high, providing rigid support for silicon - manganese demand. The procurement volume of the iconic steel mill in July increased, but the price - pressing sentiment remains [3][16]. - Inventory: The alloy factory inventory decreased slightly, while the delivery inventory continued to decline but remains at an absolute high level [3]. - Cost - Profit: Manganese ore prices showed a split, with oxide ore prices falling and semi - carbonate ore prices rising slightly. The actual transaction of manganese ore was average. Power costs in multiple production areas decreased, reducing the loss degree but the whole production area is still in a loss state [3]. - **Market Review** - Spot market: Spot prices in the main production areas rose by 30 - 80 yuan/ton [7][9]. - Supply: Production continued to rise, with stable operations in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia and more restarts in Yunnan [10][11]. - Demand: Hot - metal output and rebar production decreased [12][16]. - Hebei Steel's tender: The inquiry price decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous round, and the procurement volume increased by 2900 tons [19]. - Inventory: The alloy factory inventory decreased by 0.15 tons week - on - week [20]. - Cost - Profit: The loss degree in the production area was reduced compared with last week [22]. - Manganese ore price: Port manganese ore prices decreased slightly [26][27]. - Manganese ore shipment data: The shipment and arrival volume continued to rise, and the port clearance volume declined from a high level [32]. - Manganese ore port inventory: Port inventory remained at a low level, with the national port inventory increasing by 2.6 tons and Tianjin Port inventory increasing by 3.5 tons [34][36]. - Manganese ore manufacturer inventory: The average available days of manganese ore inventory increased in most areas [38]. - Other costs: Electricity prices decreased in multiple production areas [39][40]. Silicon - Iron - **Supply - Demand Analysis** - Supply: National production and operating rates decreased slightly, with restarts and shutdowns in different areas. The overall operation in Ningxia was relatively stable [49]. - Demand: Steel mills' new round of tenders has started, and the procurement volume of the iconic steel mill increased. Non - steel demand for magnesium ingot production decreased in June, and the export volume from January to May decreased by 14.17% compared with the same period last year [49]. - Inventory: Enterprise inventory increased by 0.32 tons week - on - week, and the delivery inventory (including forecasts) is 9.9 tons [49]. - Cost - Profit: The semi - coke market was weakly stable, and electricity prices decreased in multiple production areas, reducing the loss degree in some areas [49]. - **Market Review** - Spot price: Spot prices in the main production areas rose by different degrees [53][55]. - Supply: National production and operating rates decreased slightly [56][57]. - Steel demand: The weekly demand for silicon - iron decreased [60]. - Hebei Steel's tender: The procurement volume increased by 500 tons compared with June [63]. - Non - steel demand: Magnesium ingot production decreased in June, and the silicon - iron export volume decreased month - on - month and year - on - year [64][66]. - Inventory: Enterprise inventory increased by 0.32 tons week - on - week [67]. - Cost - Profit: The loss degree in some production areas was reduced compared with last week [69]. - Other costs: Electricity prices decreased in multiple production areas [71].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - With the gradual establishment of downstream inventory of domestic soybeans, the subsequent inventory accumulation speed of domestic soybeans may accelerate under the expectation of high - opening and high - pressing of oil mills, and the performance of 000 is expected to be volatile. - There is an expectation of rising import costs for soybean meal in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the November and January contracts. Also, pay attention to the results of the USDA planting area report at the end of June [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - On June 27, the basis of the main soybean meal contract in Dalian was - 26, down 70; in Tianjin, it was - 66, down 30; in Rizhao, it was - 106, down 10. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Zhangjiagang was - 126, down 50 [6]. - The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was - 29, down 9. The M9 - 1 spread was - 41, up 6 [6]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 387, and the price difference between the main contracts was 270, down 20 [7]. Supply Situation - In China, the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is expected to exceed 10 million tons in June, July, and August. The supply - demand balance sheet of new - crop US soybeans is tightening, and the good - excellent rate of US soybeans has declined to 66%, lower than the same period last year. The weather in the US in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean growth [7]. Demand Situation - Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November, and the inventory of poultry remains at a high level. The cost - performance of soybean meal is relatively high, and the proportion of feed addition has increased. The提货 volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the use of protein [7]. Inventory Situation - As of last Friday, domestic soybean and soybean meal continued to accumulate inventory. Currently, soybean inventory is at a high level in the same period of history, while soybean meal inventory is still at a low level in the same period of history, and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal continue to rise [8].