1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has weakened due to sufficient supply and weak demand. The 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil spot price spread has been falling for three consecutive trading days after reaching a nearly 11 - month high in the week ending February 20. The spot spread of Singapore's 0.5% sulfur marine fuel is at a premium of $1.88 per ton, the highest since January 29. The market is expected to see the FU2605 contract trade in the range of 2890 - 2940 and the LU2605 contract in the range of 3450 - 3490. The行情 is driven by the resonance of geopolitical risks on the supply side and neutral demand [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is weakening due to supply and demand factors. The 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil spot price spread is falling, while the 0.5% sulfur marine fuel in Singapore has a high spot premium. The market is expected to trade within specific ranges for different contracts [3]. 3.2 Multi - Short Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: Iran's situation is unstable; China's import quota is issued [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The optimism of the demand side remains to be verified; the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4]. - **Market Driver**: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Supply - Demand**: Asian high - sulfur fuel oil has sufficient supply and weak demand, weakening the market structure. The 0.5% sulfur marine fuel in Singapore has a strong spot premium [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is -$19 per ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is -$28 per ton, with the spot being nearly at par with the futures [3]. - **Inventory**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of February 11 was 26.379 million barrels, an increase of 0.85 million barrels [3]. - **Market Trend**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward [3]. - **Main Position**: High - sulfur main position is short, with short positions increasing; low - sulfur main position is short, with short positions decreasing [3]. 3.4 Spread Data - Not provided in the given content 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory has been increasing in recent weeks. As of February 11, 2026, it was 26.379 million barrels, an increase of 0.85 million barrels compared to the previous period [3][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC has increased, and it is expected to increase slightly in production scheduling next week. The current demand may continue to be sluggish, and the overall inventory is at a high level. PVC2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4851 - 4943. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is not smooth. [8][9][10][13] - The positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply Side**: In December 2025, PVC output was 2.137356 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.79%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 79.67%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The output of calcium carbide method enterprises was 343,410 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.56%, and the output of ethylene method enterprises was 144,360 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92%. It is expected that the maintenance will decrease next week, and the production scheduling will increase slightly. [8] - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 44.02%, a month - on - month increase of 0.080 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 30.22%, a month - on - month increase of 0.439 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 35.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.20 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 66.43%, unchanged from the previous week, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 81.53%, a month - on - month increase of 0.780 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is not competitive. The current demand may continue to be sluggish. [9] - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 633.67 yuan/ton, and the loss decreased by 11.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 192.09 yuan/ton, and the loss decreased by 31.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,127.67 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 1.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure. [9] - **Basis**: On January 9th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 197 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. [10] - **Inventory**: The in - factory inventory was 328,194 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.13%. The in - factory inventory of calcium carbide method was 244,844 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.06%. The in - factory inventory of ethylene method was 83,350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. The social inventory was 546,346 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.02%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.4 days, a month - on - month increase of 5.46%. [10] - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above MA20. [10] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increased. [10] - **Expectation**: The cost of calcium carbide method and ethylene method has strengthened, and the overall cost has strengthened. The supply pressure has increased this week, and it is expected to increase in production scheduling next week. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may continue to be sluggish. Continuously pay attention to macro - policies and export dynamics. PVC2605 will fluctuate in the range of 4851 - 4943. [10] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's market overview data, including prices, price changes, spreads, inventory, operating rates, profits, costs, and production volumes of different types of PVC and related products. For example, the price of East China SG - 5 decreased by 0.63% to 4,700 yuan/ton, and the in - factory inventory of calcium carbide method increased by 8.06% to 244,844 tons. [16] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the basis trend chart of PVC, showing the relationship between the basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price from 2022 to 2026. [19] - **Futures Price and Volume**: The report shows the futures price, volume, and position changes of PVC from December 2025 to January 2026, including the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, moving averages, and position changes of the top 5/20 seats. [22] - **Spread Analysis**: The report provides the spread analysis of the main contracts of PVC, showing the spread trends of 1 - 9, 5 - 9, etc. from 2024 to 2025. [25] 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost, profit, operating rate, and inventory of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda in the calcium carbide method, as well as the cost - profit analysis of chlor - alkali in Shandong and the double - ton price difference. [27][30][32][34][36] - **PVC Supply Trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide method and ethylene method, production profits, daily and weekly production volumes, and weekly maintenance volumes of PVC from 2018 to 2026. [38][39][41] - **Demand Trend**: It includes the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and operating rates of profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin of PVC. It also shows the investment, construction, new construction, sales, and completion areas of the real estate market, as well as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds issuance, and infrastructure investment (excluding power) year - on - year. [43][44][46][48][50][52] - **Inventory**: It presents the exchange warehouse receipts, in - factory inventories of calcium carbide method and ethylene method, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises of PVC from 2019 to 2026. [53][54] - **Ethylene Method**: It shows the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, ethylene method FOB spread (Tianjin - Taiwan), and vinyl chloride import spread (Jiangsu - Far East CIF). [55][56] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of PVC from November 2024 to December 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, in - factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand difference. [60]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The inland price has bottomed out, and the port is trading on significant inventory reduction. However, the pre - condition for significant inventory reduction is high MTO开工. Currently, MTO profit is average, which restricts the upside of methanol. There are expected to be 2 - 3 Venezuelan ships per month, with an average of 80,000 - 100,000 tons per month. Pay attention to subsequent developments. In the short term, shipments may remain normal. Also, monitor the change in oil prices. The upside of methanol is limited because other downstream sectors are weak, but if oil prices boost other sectors, the upside may be unlocked [2]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina (two - oil) is neutral year - on - year. Upstream two - oil and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory, social inventory is flat, downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price differentials are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of September maintenance is flat month - on - month, and the recent domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Pay attention to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. In 2025, the pressure from new plants is significant, so focus on the commissioning of new plants [6]. - **Polypropylene**: The upstream two - oil and mid - stream inventories are reducing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. The non - standard price differential is neutral. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - **PVC**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. The inventories of mid - and upstream are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal overhauls, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. In Q4, focus on the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. The recent export orders have slightly declined. The coal market sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. Pay attention to whether subsequent export orders can support the price of high - grade caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [7]. 3. Data Summaries Methanol | Date |动力煤期货|江苏现货|华南现货|鲁南折盘面|西南折盘面|河北折盘面|西北折盘面|CFR中国|CFR东南亚|进口利润|主力基差|盘面MTO利润| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/12/31 | 801 | 2210 | 2193 | 2345 | 2450 | 2315 | 2430 | 258 | 320 | 1 | - 25 | - | | 2026/01/05 | 801 | 2233 | 2205 | 2350 | - | 2315 | 2448 | 258 | 320 | 25 | - 2 | - | | 2026/01/06 | 801 | 2275 | 2248 | 2350 | - | 2345 | 2450 | 266 | 322 | 22 | 10 | - | | 2026/01/07 | 801 | 2285 | 2250 | 2350 | - | 2345 | 2443 | 268 | 322 | 8 | 0 | - | | 2026/01/08 | 801 | 2230 | 2220 | 2340 | - | 2345 | 2448 | - | - | - | - 10 | - | |日度变化| 0 | - 55 | - 30 | - 10 | - | 0 | 5 | - | - | - | - 10 | - | [2] Plastic (Polyethylene) | Date |东北亚乙烯|华北LL|华东LL|华东LD|华东HD|LL美金|LL美湾|进口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/12/31 | 745 | 6300 | 6575 | 8325 | 6850 | 740 | 786 | 231 | 6472 | - 170 | 63 | 11353 | | 2026/01/05 | 745 | 6300 | 6625 | 8700 | 6900 | 740 | 786 | 281 | 6449 | - 180 | - | 11350 | | 2026/01/06 | 745 | 6400 | 6625 | 8775 | 6900 | 740 | 786 | 285 | 6579 | - 160 | - | 11324 | | 2026/01/07 | 745 | 6480 | 6625 | 8800 | 6900 | 765 | 786 | 68 | 6642 | - 160 | - | 11540 | | 2026/01/08 | - | 6480 | 6700 | 8925 | 6950 | - | - | - | 6628 | - 160 | - | 11365 | |日度变化| - | 0 | 75 | 125 | 50 | - | - | - | - 14 | 0 | - | - 175 | [6] Polypropylene | Date |山东丙烯|东北亚丙烯|华东PP|华北PP|山东粉料|华东共聚|PP美金|PP美湾|出口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/12/31 | 5680 | 710 | 6140 | 6110 | 6060 | 6394 | 765 | 820 | - 9 | 6348 | - 200 | 63 | 15445 | | 2026/01/05 | 5730 | 710 | 6210 | 6165 | 6120 | 6460 | 765 | 830 | - 16 | 6330 | - 150 | - | 15445 | | 2026/01/06 | 5770 | 710 | 6180 | 6185 | 6120 | 6506 | 765 | 830 | - 19 | 6423 | - 200 | - | 15465 | | 2026/01/07 | 5770 | 710 | 6240 | 6230 | 6180 | 6534 | 770 | - | - | 6486 | - 200 | - | 15465 | | 2026/01/08 | 5800 | 710 | 6315 | 6283 | 6250 | 6534 | - | - | - | 6484 | - 200 | - | 15465 | |日度变化| 30 | 0 | 75 | 53 | 70 | 0 | - | - | - | - 2 | 0 | - | 0 | [7] PVC | Date |西北电石|山东烧碱|电石法 - 华东|乙烯法 - 华东|电石法 - 华南|电石法 - 西北|进口美金价（CFR中国）|出口利润|西北综合利润|华北综合利润|基差(高端交割品)| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/12/31 | 2300 | 717 | 4600 | - | - | 4180 | 640 | 126 | - | - | - 260 | | 2026/01/05 | 2300 | 715 | 4530 | - | - | 4180 | 640 | 139 | - | - | - 250 | | 2026/01/06 | 2300 | 715 | 4660 | - | - | 4230 | 640 | 69 | - | - | - 250 | | 2026/01/07 | 2350 | 715 | 4730 | - | - | 4330 | - | - | - | - | - 250 | | 2026/01/08 | 2400 | 715 | 4710 | - | - | 4350 | - | - | - | - | - 250 | |日度变化| 50 | 0 | - 20 | - | - | 20 | - | - | - | - | 0 | [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol market showed a mixed trend last week, with the port market strengthening and the inland market declining. The port inventory continued to accumulate, but the import volume is expected to decrease. The overall profit of methanol enterprises is poor, and the domestic methanol production is expected to remain high. The demand for methanol downstream is expected to increase this week. The methanol price is expected to fluctuate in the near future, with the upper pressure of the 05 contract at the 2300 line [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - The port methanol market continued to strengthen last week, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 2120 - 2240 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2100 - 2190 yuan/ton. The inland methanol price continued to decline, with the price in the main production area of Ordos North Line ranging from 1800 - 1845 yuan/ton. The overall profit of methanol enterprises is poor, and the domestic methanol production is expected to remain high. The Middle - East seasonal gas restriction has taken effect, and the port arrivals in January are expected to decrease. The overall demand for methanol downstream is expected to increase this week. The methanol supply is abundant, and the port inventory is rising at a high level. The methanol price is expected to fluctuate in the near future, with the upper pressure of the 05 contract at the 2300 line [1] 3.2 Factors to Watch - Methanol production start - up changes and methanol port inventory changes [2] 3.3 Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - The basis (Jiangsu) increased from - 16 yuan/ton to - 1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 93.75%. The inventory of inland methanol sample enterprises increased from 40.4 tons to 42.26 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.60%. The port methanol inventory increased from 141.25 tons to 147.74 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.59%. The weekly output decreased from 207.21 tons to 205.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02%. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia decreased from - 161.2 yuan/ton to - 235.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 46.09%. The profit of coke - oven gas - to - methanol in North China decreased from 147 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21.77%. The profit of natural - gas - to - methanol in Southwest China increased from - 320 yuan/ton to - 260 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18.75%. The downstream acetic acid start - up rate increased from 77.59% to 80.3%, a week - on - week increase of 3.49%. The downstream olefin production start - up rate decreased from 88.68% to 88.66%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02% [3] 3.4 Period and Spot Market Review - The port methanol market continued to strengthen last week, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 2120 - 2240 yuan/ton [7] 3.5 Supply Situation Analysis - As of December 31, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese methanol plants was 90.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.63%. The weekly average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was - 235.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 46.09% and a significant year - on - year decrease. The average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shandong was - 173.00 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 54.19% and a year - on - year decrease of 330.67%. The average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shanxi was - 170.25 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 34.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 190.08%. The weekly average profit of coke - oven gas - to - methanol in Hebei was 115.00 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21.77% and a year - on - year decrease of 75.00%. The weekly average profit of natural - gas - to - methanol in Southwest China was - 260.00 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18.75% and a significant year - on - year decrease [8] 3.6 Demand Situation Analysis - As of January 1, 2026, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 69.18%, a 0.05 - percentage - point increase from last week. Some plants in Jiangsu slightly adjusted their loads. There were no unexpected failures in the glacial acetic acid plants during the week, and the previous plants returned to normal operation, so the capacity utilization rate increased [10] 3.7 Inventory Analysis - As of December 31, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 147.74 tons, an increase of 6.49 tons from the previous period. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 3.98 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 2.51 tons [12] 3.8 Position Analysis - As of December 31, the long positions of the top 20 members in the methanol futures market were 596,925, a decrease of 77,494, and the short positions were 703,897, a decrease of 65,221. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [3] - Methanol: Bearish [3] - Urea: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [6] Core Views - The overall energy and chemical market is under pressure, with many varieties facing supply - demand imbalances and cost - related challenges. Some varieties are facing supply surpluses, while others are affected by weakening cost support and uncertain demand prospects [1][3][6] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market performance**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with WTI down 1.73%, Brent down 1.49%, and SC down 0.70% [7][8] - **Key drivers**: The supply surplus persists, with global crude oil inventories accelerating accumulation. OPEC+ maintains its production policy, and geopolitical factors may impact the market [9] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: US oil rig count increased, and global demand is expected to grow slightly in the future. US crude oil inventory decreased, while gasoline, distillate, and strategic reserve inventories changed [10] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions, and focus on the range of SC [430 - 440] [11] LPG - **Market performance**: On December 10, the PG main contract closed at 4232 yuan/ton, down 1.01% [13] - **Key drivers**: The downward trend of crude oil prices drags down LPG, and inventory accumulation adds downward pressure [14] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Refinery production increased, and downstream chemical demand has some resilience, but inventory is rising [14] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions, and focus on the range of PG [4050 - 4150] [15] L - **Market performance**: The price of L contracts declined, and the main contract's basis and other spreads changed [17] - **Key drivers**: Cost support weakens, and the market is in a contango structure. Supply is sufficient, and demand is weakening [19] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Domestic production starts to pick up seasonally, and port arrivals are sufficient. The peak season for shed films is ending, and enterprise inventories are increasing [19] - **Strategy recommendation**: Partially close short positions, and wait for a rebound to go short. Focus on the range of L [6400 - 6550] [19] PP - **Market performance**: The price of PP contracts had minor changes, and the main contract's basis and other spreads changed [21] - **Key drivers**: Warehouse receipts increased, and PDH device maintenance willingness is low. Inventory pressure is high, and demand is entering the off - season [23] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: The parking ratio is declining, and there are few maintenance plans in the future. The OPEC+ production increase cycle may lead to further oil price declines [23] - **Strategy recommendation**: Partially close short positions, and wait for a rebound to go short. Consider arbitrage strategies. Focus on the range of PP [6100 - 6250] and propylene [5600 - 5750] [23] PVC - **Market performance**: The price of PVC contracts declined, and the main contract's basis and other spreads changed [24] - **Key drivers**: The market is at a discount to the spot, and the high - production - low - profit situation persists. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of northwest devices [26] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Up - middle stream inventory remains high, and demand is in the off - season. The comprehensive profit of enterprises is being compressed [26] - **Strategy recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term; wait for inventory to decline for long - term long positions. Focus on the range of V [4200 - 4350] [26] PTA - **Market performance**: The price of PTA contracts increased, and spreads and processing fees changed [27] - **Key drivers**: Processing fees are low, and device maintenance intensity is high. Supply pressure is relieved, but downstream demand is expected to weaken [28] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Multiple domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance, and downstream polyester production is high, but weaving orders are decreasing. There is an inventory accumulation expectation in December [28] - **Strategy recommendation**: The 01 contract is under pressure but has support at the bottom. Consider going long on the 05 contract on dips or 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage. Focus on the range of TA [4580 - 4670] [29] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market performance**: The price of MEG contracts declined, and spreads and other indicators changed [30] - **Key drivers**: Domestic and overseas device loads decreased, but demand is expected to weaken, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in December [31] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Many domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance or reduced load, downstream polyester production is high, but weaving orders are decreasing. Social inventory is slightly accumulating [31] - **Strategy recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go short on rebounds. Focus on the range of EG [3540 - 3630] [32] Methanol - **Market performance**: The price of methanol contracts declined, and spreads and other indicators changed [33] - **Key drivers**: High inventory suppresses the spot price, and the cost support weakens. Supply pressure is large, and demand changes little [34] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Domestic coal - based methanol production is at a high level, overseas devices are reducing load, and port inventory is gradually decreasing. Demand from MTO and traditional downstream industries has different trends [34] - **Strategy recommendation**: Cautiously bearish on the 01 contract, and look for low - buying opportunities on the 05 contract. Focus on the range of MA01 [2011 - 2075] [36] Urea - **Market performance**: The price of urea contracts declined, and spreads and other indicators changed [37] - **Key drivers**: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong is strengthening, and supply pressure is expected to ease in mid - December. Demand is short - term good but lacks sustainability [38] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Urea daily production is high, but some gas - head enterprises will stop for maintenance. Demand from compound fertilizers and melamine is increasing, and exports are relatively good. Inventory is decreasing but still at a high level [39] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Focus on the range of UR [1620 - 1650] [40] Natural Gas - **Market performance**: On December 10, the NG main contract closed at 4.595 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.46% [43] - **Key drivers**: Demand enters the peak season, but the price has reached a high level, and the current supply is relatively abundant, putting pressure on the price [44] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: The number of US natural gas drilling platforms decreased, US production is expected to be stable, and inventory decreased slightly compared to the previous period [44] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of NG [4.021 - 4.406] [45] Asphalt - **Market performance**: On December 11, the BU main contract closed at 2945 yuan/ton, up 0.79% [47] - **Key drivers**: The price is mainly affected by the decline of crude oil prices and the weak supply - demand situation [48] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: December refinery production is expected to decline, demand is increasing slightly, and inventory is decreasing [48] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of BU [2850 - 2950] [49] Glass - **Market performance**: The price of glass contracts declined, and the main contract's basis and other spreads changed [51] - **Key drivers**: Warehouse receipts increased, and the industrial outlook is weak. Supply is difficult to shrink significantly, and demand is weak [53] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: A production line in East China restarted, and the daily melting volume remained stable. Real - estate - related demand is weak, and inventory is high [53] - **Strategy recommendation**: Bearish in the short - term, wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Focus on the range of FG [930 - 980] [53] Soda Ash - **Market performance**: The price of soda ash contracts had minor changes, and the main contract's basis and other spreads changed [55] - **Key drivers**: The futures and spot prices increased slightly, the basis weakened, and warehouse receipts remained high. Supply is expected to increase, and demand support is insufficient [57] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Factory inventory decreased, but it is still at a high level. There are few planned maintenance enterprises next week, and a large - scale device is expected to be put into production at the end of the month. The cold - repair expectation of float glass increases [57] - **Strategy recommendation**: Wait for a rebound to go short. Focus on the range of SA [1080 - 1130] [57]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate last week was 21,939 tons, a 0.33% week-on-week increase, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased week-on-week. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica decreased or remained flat, with production losses. The cost of the salt lake end is significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins. The overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased week-on-week but was higher than the historical average. The 05 contract price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate between 91,180 - 94,940 [8][9]. - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance. The main risk points are the impact of production suspension, reduction, or maintenance plans and the start time of industry clearance [13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - **Supply**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,939 tons, a 0.33% week-on-week increase, higher than the historical average. In November 2025, the production was 95,350 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 98,210 physical tons, a 3.00% increase [8]. - **Demand**: The inventory of sample lithium iron phosphate enterprises last week was 103,681 tons, a 0.63% week-on-week decrease, and that of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,842 tons, a 2.68% week-on-week decrease. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 93,764 yuan/ton, a 0.52% daily decrease, with a production loss of 1,810 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica is 92,638 yuan/ton, remaining flat, with a production loss of 2,982 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [9]. - **Base Difference**: On December 8th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,750 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract base difference was - 2,090 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 20,767 tons, a 14.62% week-on-week decrease, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 43,695 tons, a 4.08% week-on-week increase, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 49,140 tons, a 1.04% week-on-week decrease, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 113,602 tons, a 2.04% week-on-week decrease, higher than the historical average [9]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the 05 contract price closed above the MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increased [9]. - **Expectation**: Lithium carbonate 2605 is expected to fluctuate between 91,180 - 94,940 [9]. - **Likely Factors**: Lithium mica manufacturers plan to cut production, and the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile decreased month-on-month [11]. - **Negative Factors**: The supply of ore and salt lake ends remains high, with limited decline [12]. 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - **Futures Closing Price**: The closing prices of various contracts increased, with increases ranging from 2.34% - 3.07% [16]. - **Base Difference**: The base difference of various contracts decreased, with decreases ranging from 101.95% - 318.81% [16]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered warehouse receipts was 13,120, a 20.12% increase [16]. - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium mica concentrate, and some lithium salts changed slightly [16]. - **Positive Material and Lithium Battery Prices**: The prices of some positive materials and lithium batteries changed slightly [16]. 3.3 Supply - Side and Demand - Side Data - **Supply - Side**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 75.34%, remaining flat. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in November 2025 was 95,350 tons, a 3.35% increase. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate and lithium carbonate increased [19]. - **Demand - Side**: The monthly operating rate and production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials changed. The monthly power battery loading volume increased, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased [19]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price**: The price of lithium ore has changed over time [26]. - **Production**: The production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines has changed over the years [26]. - **Import**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has changed over time [26]. - **Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has changed over time [26]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore has changed over the years [26]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Ore - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore has fluctuated over time, with different values in different months [29]. 3.6 Supply - Carbonate Lithium - **Operating Rate**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling materials) has changed over time [32]. - **Production**: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate from different sources has changed over time [32]. - **Import**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries has changed over time [32]. 3.7 Supply - Carbonate Lithium - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has fluctuated over time, with different values in different months [38]. 3.8 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has changed over the years [41]. - **Operating Rate**: The monthly operating rate of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) has changed over time [41]. - **Production**: The monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources has changed over time [41]. - **Export**: The export volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide has changed over the years [41]. 3.9 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has fluctuated over time, with different values in different months [44]. 3.10 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - The cost and profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycled materials for producing lithium carbonate have changed over time [47][48]. - The processing cost composition of lithium mica and lithium spodumene has changed over time [47]. - The import profit of lithium carbonate, the purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the carbonization profit of lithium hydroxide have changed over time [47][48]. 3.11 Inventory - The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts, weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide from different sources have changed over time [54]. 3.12 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price**: The price of batteries has changed over time [58]. - **Production**: The monthly production of battery cells has changed over time [58]. - **Loading Volume**: The monthly power battery loading volume has changed over time [58]. - **Shipping Volume**: The monthly shipping volume of power battery cells has changed over time [58]. - **Export**: The export volume of lithium batteries has changed over the years [58]. - **Cost**: The cost of battery cells has changed over time [58]. 3.13 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price**: The price of ternary precursors has changed over time [63]. - **Cost - Profit**: The cost and profit of ternary precursors have changed over time [63]. - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee of ternary precursors has changed over time [63]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors has changed over the years [63]. - **Capacity**: The capacity of ternary precursors has changed over the years [63]. - **Production**: The monthly production of ternary precursors has changed over time [63]. 3.14 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors has fluctuated over time, with different values in different months [66]. 3.15 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price**: The price of ternary materials has changed over time [69]. - **Cost - Profit**: The cost and profit of ternary materials have changed over time [69]. - **Operating Rate**: The weekly operating rate of ternary materials has changed over the years [69]. - **Capacity**: The capacity of ternary materials has changed over the years [69]. - **Production**: The production of ternary materials has changed over time [69]. - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee of ternary materials has changed over time [71]. - **Export and Import**: The export and import volumes of ternary materials have changed over the years [71]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of ternary materials has changed over time [71]. 3.16 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium - **Price**: The price of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium has changed over time [73]. - **Cost - Profit**: The cost and profit of phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed over time [73]. - **Capacity**: The capacity of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium has changed over the years [73]. - **Operating Rate**: The monthly operating rate of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium has changed over time [73]. - **Production**: The monthly production of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium has changed over time [76]. - **Export**: The monthly export volume of phosphoric acid iron lithium has changed over the years [76]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of phosphoric acid iron lithium has changed over time [78]. 3.17 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production**: The production of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid and pure - electric) has changed over time [81]. - **Export**: The export volume of new energy vehicles has changed over the years [81]. - **Sales**: The sales volume of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric, and total sales) has changed over time [81]. - **Penetration Rate**: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has changed over the years [82]. - **Retail - Wholesale Ratio**: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles has changed over time [85]. - **Inventory Index**: The monthly dealer inventory warning index and inventory index of new energy vehicles have changed over the years [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned output of asphalt from local refineries in November 2025 is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 30.8006%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points. Refineries have reduced production this week, which will reduce supply pressure next week [8]. - On the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 29%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 6.6%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 11.2169%, a month - on - month increase of 0.79 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 34%, unchanged from the previous month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 33%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00 percentage point [8]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 562.55 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.81%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 915.1743 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 14.48%. Asphalt processing losses have increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. Crude oil has weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [8]. - Overall, due to factors such as reduced supply pressure, low demand, and weakened cost support, it is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 contract fluctuating in the range of 3034 - 3082 [8]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: The planned output of local refinery asphalt in November 2025 is 1.312 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. This week, the capacity utilization rate decreased, production decreased, and the estimated maintenance volume increased, reducing supply pressure [8]. - **Demand**: The开工率 of various types of asphalt and related products is mostly lower than the historical average, indicating that the overall demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The asphalt processing profit is negative and increasing, the delayed coking profit is increasing, the profit difference is increasing, and crude oil is weakening, so the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - **Basis**: On November 20, the Shandong spot price was 3030 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 28 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is decreasing, while the in - factory inventory and port inventory are increasing [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 contract fluctuating in the range of 3034 - 3082 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the current values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators of asphalt contracts, including futures closing prices, basis, inventory, production, and开工率. For example, the 01 contract price is 3058 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.43%; the social inventory is 82.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.03% [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from January 1 to December 31, 2020 - 2025, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [18][19]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The historical spread trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from January 2 to December 30, 2020 - 2025 are shown, which is useful for spread trading analysis [22][23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from January 3 to November 21, 2020 - 2025 are presented, helping to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from January 2 to December 30, 2020 - 2025 are shown, which is important for understanding the profitability of refining [28][29][30]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from January 2 to December 30, 2020 - 2025 are presented, providing a reference for price comparison [32][34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from January 2 to December 27, 2020 - 2025 is shown, reflecting the price changes in the local asphalt market [35][36]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical asphalt profit from January 1 to December 26, 2019 - 2025 is presented, showing the profitability of asphalt production [38][39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical spread trend of coking - asphalt profit from January 1 to December 29, 2020 - 2025 is shown, which is helpful for analyzing the profit difference between coking and asphalt production [41][42][43]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt from January 1 to December 29, 2020 - 2025 is presented, reflecting the supply situation in the market [44][45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from January 3 to December 30, 2021 - 2025 is shown, which is important for understanding the supply of raw materials [46][47]. - **Production Volume**: The historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from January 1, 2019 - 2025 are presented, showing the overall supply capacity [49][50]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The historical price of Marine crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil from January 1 to December 26, 2018 - 2025 are shown, which is related to the raw material supply of asphalt [53][54][55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The historical production of local refinery asphalt from January to December, 2019 - 2025 is presented, reflecting the production capacity of local refineries [56][57]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from January 3 to December 27, 2021 - 2025 is shown, indicating the production efficiency of the industry [59][60]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The historical maintenance loss estimation of asphalt from January 1 to December 27, 2018 - 2025 is presented, which is related to the supply adjustment of the industry [61][62]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: The historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from January 2 to December 26, 2019 - 2025 are shown, reflecting the inventory situation in the futures market [64][66][67]. - **Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory**: The historical social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from January 3 to December 23, 2022 - 2025 are presented, showing the overall inventory situation [68][69]. - **In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The historical in - factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from January 1 to December 27, 2018 - 2025 is shown, which is useful for analyzing the inventory turnover [71][72]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: The historical export and import trends of asphalt from January to December, 2019 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the international trade situation of asphalt [74][75]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The historical spread trend of South Korean asphalt imports from January 1 to December 26, 2020 - 2025 is shown, which is important for analyzing the import cost [78][79]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The historical production of petroleum coke from January to December, 2019 - 2025 is presented, which is related to the demand for asphalt as a by - product [80][81]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical apparent consumption of asphalt from January to December, 2019 - 2025 is shown, reflecting the overall market demand [83][84]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Related Indicators**: The historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which are related to the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [86][87][88]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The historical sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, and the sales volume of domestic excavators from 2019 - 2025 are shown, reflecting the demand for asphalt in construction machinery [90][91][93]. - **Asphalt开工率** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工率**: The historical heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 from January 1 to December 25, 2019 - 2025 is presented, reflecting the production activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [95][96]. - **Asphalt开工率 by Use**: The historical开工率 of construction asphalt, modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 is shown, which is related to different application scenarios of asphalt [98][99]. - **Downstream开工率**: The historical开工率 of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane modified asphalt, etc. from 2019 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the demand in the downstream market [100][101][103]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to November 2025 is provided, including monthly production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream demand, which helps to understand the overall supply - demand relationship in the market [105][106].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both industrial silicon and lithium carbonate futures are currently in a large - range oscillatory operation. For industrial silicon, the 2511 contract is expected to operate between 7,700 and 10,000, and for lithium carbonate, the 2511 contract is expected to operate between 65,000 and 100,000 [6][31][32]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - Mid - term trend: Industrial silicon futures are in large - range oscillatory operation. The spot price increased last week. As of September 19, the 421 price in Xinjiang was 9,000 yuan/ton, in Yunnan 9,800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan 9,900 yuan/ton. The AI report shows the daily price is in a sideways phase, and the main long - position camp has a slight advantage. The 2511 contract is expected to operate between 7,700 and 10,000 [6][7]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week's strategy: Trade by buying at low prices in the large - range operation. - This week's strategy: Trade by buying at low prices in the large - range operation [10][11]. - **Related Data** - As of April 19, 2024, SHFE cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 25.73%, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [13][17]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - Mid - term trend: Lithium carbonate futures are in large - range oscillatory operation. The spot price increased last week. As of September 19, the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,250 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade was 71,600 yuan/ton. The AI report shows the futures are in a downward channel, and there is no obvious long - short bias among the main players. The 2511 contract is expected to operate between 65,000 and 100,000 [31][32]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week's strategy: Consider grid trading within the range. - This week's strategy: Consider grid trading within the range [35]. - **Related Data** - As of April 19, 2024, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 66.03%, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [37][38].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the domestic PTA futures market is experiencing slight fluctuations, with the main contract priced at 4686.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a minor increase of 0.04% [1] - Supply side analysis shows that the PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate is at 74.95%, an increase of 4.30% from the previous week, with domestic PTA production reaching 138.8 million tons, up by 7.77 million tons [1] - Demand side insights reveal that polyester plant operations have seen minor fluctuations, with polyester load recovering to 91.6%, while terminal operations in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remain stable, and raw material stocking is cautious [1] Group 2 - Inventory analysis indicates that PTA inventory has slightly decreased but remains high overall, with social inventory days at 10.84 days (down by 0.11 days) and factory inventory days at 3.84 days (down by 0.06 days) [1] - The outlook for the PTA market suggests that while downstream operations have recovered to 91.6%, terminal operations remain limited, with weaving machine operations unchanged at 66%, leading to a slight increase in downstream inventory [2] - The processing fee for PTA has decreased significantly, currently around 120 yuan/ton, and low processing fees are expected to impact operations, with potential maintenance plans for facilities like INEOS [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Methanol**: The current trading logic is the transmission of port pressure to the inland. Although there is seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment in the inland later, the port will continuously form a reverse flow impact. The current price is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland behavior is crucial. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but the inventory is still accumulating. The reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will impact the inland valuation. Currently, the valuation and inventory are average, and the driving force is weak. Wait before bottom - fishing, considering import variables such as India's purchase of Iranian methanol and unplanned maintenance [2]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. The upstream is destocking, and the social inventory is flat. The downstream raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The foreign markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differences are fluctuating. The LD is weak. The maintenance in September is flat compared to the previous period, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Pay attention to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. The pressure from new devices in 2025 is large, and focus on the commissioning of new devices [6]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The upstream and mid - stream of polypropylene are destocking. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. The export situation has been good this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral. The European and American markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, the propylene price is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up is stable. The拉丝 production arrangement is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The downstream orders are average currently, and the raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If the export volume continues to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [8]. - **PVC**: The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. The downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The mid - upstream inventory is continuously accumulating. The northwest devices have seasonal overhauls in summer, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high - production period in Q1. In Q4, focus on the commissioning and export sustainability. The recent export orders have declined slightly. The coal sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The export counter - offer of caustic soda is FOB380. Pay attention to whether the subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro situation is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From August 28 to September 3, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price increased from 2235 to 2253, the South China spot price increased from 2255 to 2250, the Lunan converted - to - futures price remained at 2505 on most days with a 10 - point increase on September 3, the Southwest converted - to - futures price remained at 2480 on most days with a 5 - point increase on September 2, the Hebei converted - to - futures price decreased by 30 points on September 3, the Northwest converted - to - futures price increased from 2655 to 2658, the CFR China price remained at 259 on most days with a 1 - point increase on September 2, and the CFR Southeast Asia price remained at 322. The import profit increased from 1 to 16, the main contract basis increased from - 140 to - 135, and the MTO profit on the disk remained at - 1237 [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From August 28 to September 3, 2025, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 840 on most days. The North China LL price remained at 7170 on September 1 - 3 after a decline, the East China LL price decreased from 7350 to 7285, the East China LD price decreased from 9625 to 9600, the East China HD price decreased from 7550 to 7430, the LL US dollar price remained at 860, the LL US Gulf price remained at 840. The import profit decreased from - 150 to - 218, the main futures price decreased from 7358 to 7247, the basis decreased from - 140 to - 100, the two - oil inventory remained at 65, and the warehouse receipt remained at 8263 on September 2 - 3 [6]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From August 28 to September 3, 2025, the Shandong propylene price remained at 6550 on most days with a 30 - point increase on September 1. The Northeast Asian propylene price remained at 760. The East China PP price decreased from 6920 to 6885, the North China PP price decreased from 6983 to 6928, the Shandong powder price decreased from 6830 to 6780, the East China copolymer price decreased from 7190 to 7140, the PP US dollar price remained at 860, the PP US Gulf price remained at 980. The export profit increased from - 22 to - 14, the main futures price decreased from 7020 to 6954, the basis remained at - 90 on most days with a 10 - point increase on September 1, the two - oil inventory decreased from 67 to 65, and the warehouse receipt decreased from 14055 to 13802 [8]. PVC - **Price Data**: From August 28 to September 3, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price decreased from 2350 to 2300 on September 1. The Shandong caustic soda price decreased from 887 to 882 on September 1. The calcium carbide - based PVC price in East China decreased from 4780 to 4760, the ethylene - based PVC price in East China remained at 5500, the calcium carbide - based PVC price in South China remained at 5450, the calcium carbide - based PVC price in the Northwest decreased from 4500 to 4470 on September 2. The import US dollar price (CFR China) remained at 710, the export profit increased from 481 to 523, the Northwest comprehensive profit remained at 356, the North China comprehensive profit remained at - 244, and the basis (high - end delivery product) remained at - 160 [8].