中金研究 本报告阐述我们对印度尼西亚经济2026年第一季度的展望。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 宏观经济：2025年底加 速增长， 预示2026年持续增长 印度尼西亚2025年收官，第四季度GDP增速为5.39%（高于彭博一致预期），推动全年增速升至5.11%。家庭消费强劲、劳动力状况改善、固定资产投资 稳固以及制造业韧性是主要驱动力，采矿业是唯一收缩的行业。我们认为，这一势头叠加财政支持与Danantara资金投放，为印尼央行（BI）预测2026年 GDP增长5.3%提供了有力支撑，前提是外部风险可控且印尼盾保持稳定。 MSCI与穆迪双重警告揭示风险 2026年初，摩根士丹利资本国际公司明晟指数（MSCI）与穆迪（Moody's）发出警告，强调治理、自由流通量、政策可预测性及Danantara相关担忧，引 发雅加达综合指数（JCI）波动。我们认为临时补救措施或可避免立即降级，但2026年后的持续增长需要加强BI与财政部的独立性、提升税收占GDP比重 （2025年以支撑增长为12%，亚太地区为19.5%），并提高Danantara的透明度，以扭转外国直接投资疲软态势。 印度尼西亚谨慎支持的 ...

Group 1 - Indonesia's energy transition investment scale for 2024 is estimated at approximately $4 billion, primarily focused on power transmission and distribution [1] - The potential investment opportunities to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 in Indonesia could reach up to $3.8 trillion [1] - The Indonesian Chamber of Commerce emphasizes the need for the private sector to play a leading role in climate goals, capital investment, carbon market development, and skill development [1] Group 2 - The development of clean energy and the electrification of end-use sectors such as transportation, construction, and industry are identified as core drivers for decarbonization [1] - Waste-to-energy projects are emerging as a new highlight in Indonesia's green transition, with increased government support for these initiatives [1] - The sovereign wealth fund, Danantara, successfully issued "Patriot Bonds" worth 50 trillion Indonesian Rupiah (approximately $3 billion) to support clean energy projects, including waste-to-energy plants [1] Group 3 - Indonesia requires approximately 91 trillion Indonesian Rupiah (around $5.5 billion) to build waste-to-energy facilities in 33 cities, with over 190 companies expressing interest in participation [2] - The project is set to officially launch in early November and will proceed through a transparent bidding process, focusing on ten key cities including Jakarta, Bandung, Surabaya, and Bali [2] - The Indonesian government has postponed its carbon peak target to 2035, which will be reflected in the revised Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) document to be submitted at COP30 [2]