Macro - July economic growth slowed, driven by policy and seasonal factors, with a need for continued policy support to stabilize growth and address structural issues [1][4][31] - The recovery of the economy requires ongoing consumption stimulus policies and optimization of funding allocation in infrastructure projects [4][31] Strategy - The reform of the capital market in China is crucial for stock market valuation, with a focus on improving investor returns, which is expected to boost confidence in Chinese assets [2][5][6] - The shift in valuation logic in the Chinese stock market is moving from economic cycle fluctuations to a decline in discount rates, indicating a bullish outlook for A/H shares [5][9] Overseas Strategy - The Hong Kong stock market has shown weak performance recently, influenced by a depreciating Hong Kong dollar and rising global trade uncertainties [10][11] - The decline in hot sectors and a slowdown in incremental capital inflows have constrained the performance of the Hong Kong stock market [11][34] Food and Beverage - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with the company expecting a revenue decline of 38.3%-41.9% in H1 2025, and a net profit decrease of 39%-40% [2][16] - The introduction of new products like "Da Zhen" and "Niu Shi Beer" is anticipated to contribute to revenue growth and improve margins [2][17] Home Appliances - The company is increasing its market share in domestic refrigeration cabinets, with the launch of its first overseas factory in Indonesia, which is expected to create new growth opportunities [2][19][20] - The demand for commercial refrigeration products is projected to grow due to the expansion of convenience stores and the rise of smart cabinets [21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][18] Core Views - The white liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with the company expecting a revenue decline of 38.3%-41.9% and an adjusted net profit decline of 39%-40% for the first half of 2025. The introduction of new products such as "Da Zhen" and "Niu Shi Beer" is anticipated to contribute to revenue growth and improve marginal growth rates [2][10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 7,030 million RMB in 2023, with a growth of 20.1%. However, a significant decline of 27.8% is expected in 2025, followed by a slight recovery in subsequent years [5][11]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to be 1,623 million RMB in 2023, with a growth of 35.5%, but a decline of 27.5% is anticipated in 2025 [5][11]. - The company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 16.38 in 2023, increasing to 21.89 by 2025 [5][11]. Product and Market Strategy - The company is actively launching new products to enhance revenue, including the strategic product "Da Zhen" priced between 500-600 RMB, which aims to fill the price gap between existing products. The product is currently in the distribution phase and is expected to contribute to revenue in the second half of 2025 [10]. - The high-end craft beer "Niu Shi News" has been launched with a retail price of 88 RMB for 375ml, generating over 2 million RMB in revenue from initial sales [10]. Market Context - The company is facing challenges due to significant declines in the white liquor market, particularly affecting mid-range and high-end products. The company anticipates a potential improvement in performance in the second half of 2025 due to low base effects and new product contributions [10][11].