有色金属行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 政策扰动频发，供给收缩预期强化 ——钴锂金属行业周报 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 短期来看，津巴布韦出口扰动叠加节后补库情绪共振，锂价弹性明显放大，但短期仍需 警惕津巴政府风向突转、情绪回落带来的波动加剧。中期维度下，下游储能需求热仍在 延续，供应端更常态化的扰动或放大市场整体担忧情绪，锂价中枢在二季度前有进一步 上移空间。钴板块受原料成本支撑，到港量依旧不足，整体下行空间有限，预计短期内 维持偏强震荡。 风险提示 新能源汽车增速不及预期，储能装机增速不及预期。 | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | --- | --- | | 行业 | 有色金属行业 | | 报告发布日期 | 2026 年 02 月 28 日 | | 于嘉懿 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110005 | | --- | --- | | | yujiayi1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 宁紫微 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120005 | | | ningziwei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [8] Core Viewpoints - The energy metals market has seen a slight rebound in prices due to a recovery in other non-ferrous markets, although overall trading activity has slowed ahead of the holiday [4] - The lithium price is expected to shift from "short-term fluctuations" to "upward opportunities" before the second quarter [4] - The cobalt sector is supported by tight raw material costs, limiting overall downward space, and is expected to maintain a range-bound consolidation in the short term [4] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Judgment: Pre-holiday Trading Slows, Cobalt and Lithium Supported by Others - Lithium and cobalt core targets have clear investment value, suggesting active positioning [12] - The lithium sector's fundamentals have eased, with a cooling spot market before the holiday, but there is potential for an upward trend in the second quarter [12] - The price of lithium concentrate is reported at $2,000 per ton, up $120 from the previous week [12] 2. Company and Industry Dynamics - North American battery factories are shifting towards AI-related energy storage systems due to declining electric vehicle sales [16] - Tianhua New Energy forecasts a net profit decline of 47.83% to 56.23% for 2025, primarily due to structural imbalances in supply and falling prices of lithium hydroxide [16] 3. Core Data on New Energy Materials: Production Changes and Price Movements - In January, domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 5% month-on-month, while hydroxide production decreased by 4% [17] - The weekly average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 6.04% [61] - The average price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 6.28% [61]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Viewpoints - The macro sentiment remains volatile, leading to increased volatility in the commodity market. Short-term demand for replenishment supports prices after a correction in carbonate lithium futures. In the medium term, limited supply of lithium salts and rising costs at the mining level maintain the upward price logic for lithium. The cobalt sector is supported by raw material costs, with prices showing resilience despite a recent correction, and overall downward space is limited, with expectations of market stabilization [4][9][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - Lithium and cobalt core targets have clear investment value, suggesting active positioning. The carbonate lithium price has significantly corrected, with downstream concentrated purchasing for replenishment. Futures contracts saw a weekly drop of 10.25% to 133,900 CNY/ton for Wuxi and 10.92% to 132,000 CNY/ton for Guangxi. Lithium concentrate prices fell to 1,880 USD/ton, down 90 USD from the previous week [9][14]. 2. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent announcements include the central government's initiatives to expand rural consumption, supporting the adoption of new energy vehicles and smart appliances. Tian Tie Technology's subsidiary has been re-certified as a high-tech enterprise, while Shengxin Lithium Energy plans to acquire a 13.93% stake in Huirong Mining to enhance lithium supply security [18]. 3. Core Data on New Energy Materials - January production of domestic carbonate lithium increased by 5%, while hydroxide lithium production decreased by 4%. The inventory showed structural adjustments, with a weekly decrease in carbonate lithium production of 3.82% and inventory down by 1.88% [19][48].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - The macro sentiment has fluctuated significantly, amplifying volatility in the commodity market. Short-term carbonate lithium prices have surged and then retreated, with inventory adjustments providing support. There remains potential for a rebound before the holiday. In the medium term, lithium salt supply is constrained, and mining costs are rising, maintaining the upward price logic for lithium. The cobalt sector is supported by raw material costs, showing strong price resilience with limited downside [4][12][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The lithium and cobalt sectors are identified as having clear investment value, with recommendations for active positioning. The lithium sector has seen increased price volatility, with futures contracts experiencing significant declines. The price of lithium concentrate was reported at $2,070 per ton, down $144 from the previous week. The carbonate lithium price has significantly corrected, but downstream demand has led to active market transactions [8][12][13]. 2. Company and Industry Dynamics - Various companies have released performance signals, with notable announcements including Pilbara's production advancements and CATL's plans for a new battery manufacturing base in Yunnan. Yongshan Lithium and Yahua Group have provided profit forecasts indicating significant year-on-year growth, while Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium have also reported expected turnarounds in profitability [15][16][17]. 3. Core Data on New Energy Materials - December production data shows mixed trends, with carbonate lithium production up 4% month-on-month and hydroxide lithium up 2%. The inventory levels are undergoing structural adjustments, with significant increases in imports of carbonate lithium and hydroxide lithium [18][31][49].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" for lithium and cobalt core targets, suggesting active positioning in these sectors [9][14]. Core Insights - Short-term, lithium prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels due to futures market sentiment, with potential for a temporary spike before the holiday season. However, downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, leading to a possible shift towards price stabilization [4][9]. - In the medium term, supply constraints and rising cost levels have been confirmed, maintaining an upward trend for lithium prices. Cobalt demand is weak, but tight raw material supply and smelting cost support keep cobalt salt prices relatively firm, limiting short-term price declines [4][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment: Upward Trend in Lithium and Cobalt Prices - Lithium prices are experiencing strong upward momentum driven by futures market fluctuations, with the Wuxi 2605 contract rising 23.11% to 179,000 CNY/ton and the Guangzhou 2605 contract increasing 24.16% to 181,500 CNY/ton. Lithium concentrate prices rose to 2,214 USD/ton, up 234 USD from the previous week [9][14]. - Cobalt prices are supported by raw material costs, but demand from downstream sectors is weakening as the holiday approaches, leading to a market characterized by stable prices and low trading activity [9][14]. 2. Company and Industry Dynamics: Policy, Technology, and Performance Signals - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology introduced regulations for the recycling and comprehensive utilization of used power batteries in electric vehicles. This aims to enhance the low-carbon competitiveness of battery products [18]. - Tianhua New Energy is planning to issue H shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its international presence and capital strength [18]. - Yongxing Materials reported that its lithium extraction project has achieved full production capacity and key performance indicators [18]. 3. Core Data on New Energy Materials: Mixed Production Changes and Price Increases - In December, domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 4% month-on-month, while lithium hydroxide production rose by 2% [19][20]. - The import volume of lithium carbonate increased by 9% month-on-month, and the export volume of lithium hydroxide surged by 88% [35][37].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" for lithium and cobalt core targets, suggesting active positioning in the market [9][14]. Core Insights - The report indicates that lithium prices are experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by futures market sentiment, with potential for short-term price spikes before a possible stabilization due to limited downstream acceptance of high prices [4][9]. - Cobalt prices are expected to remain relatively stable due to tight raw material supply and sustained smelting costs, despite weak terminal demand [4][9]. - The overall trend for lithium prices is upward, with confirmed supply constraints and rising cost bases, while cobalt prices are supported by raw material costs but face weak demand [4][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment: Lithium and Cobalt Price Trends - Lithium prices are on an upward trajectory, with futures contracts showing significant weekly increases: Wuxi 2605 contract rose by 23.11% to 179,000 CNY/ton, and Guangxi 2605 contract increased by 24.16% to 181,500 CNY/ton [9][14]. - Lithium concentrate prices reached 2,214 USD/ton, up 234 USD/ton from the previous week [9][14]. - Cobalt prices are supported by raw material costs, with a stable pricing environment despite weak demand leading to lower transaction volumes [9][14]. 2. Company and Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology introduced regulations for the recycling and comprehensive utilization of used power batteries, aiming to enhance the low-carbon competitiveness of battery products [18]. - Tianhua New Energy is planning to issue H shares to enhance its international presence and capital strength [18]. - Yongxing Materials reported progress on its lithium extraction project, achieving full production capacity [18]. 3. Core Data on New Energy Materials - December saw a 4% month-on-month increase in domestic lithium carbonate production and a 2% increase in lithium hydroxide production [19][20]. - The import volume of lithium carbonate rose by 9% month-on-month, while lithium hydroxide exports surged by 88% [35][37]. - The weekly average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.76%, while battery-grade lithium hydroxide rose by 1.74% [72][73].

有色金属行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 退税政策催化，锂价再上涨 ——钴锂金属行业周报 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 1 月仍看好碳酸锂价格上涨，中期需注意动力与储能端由于需求转淡带来的价格回踩压 力，但 2026 年锂价整体中枢上移的趋势不改。钴市在 2026 年 4 月大批量原料到港前， 受限于现货结构性紧缺与成本倒挂支撑，价格重心仍有上行空间。 风险提示 新能源汽车增速不及预期，储能装机增速不及预期。 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色金属行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 13 日 看好（维持） | 于嘉懿 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110005 | | --- | --- | | | yujiayi1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 宁紫微 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120005 | | | ningziwei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 流动性预期强化，扩散行情延续：有色及 贵金属周报 2026-01-11 对标 2010 年，稀土板块有望迎来盈利估值 双击：——两用物项对日本出口管制政 ...

Core Viewpoint - Company expects a significant increase in net profit for 2025, driven by the recovery in cobalt and lithium prices, along with operational improvements and cost reduction initiatives [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 58.50 billion and 64.50 billion yuan for 2025 [1] - This represents a year-on-year growth of 40.80% to 55.24% [1] Group 2: Contributing Factors - The anticipated profit growth is primarily attributed to the continuous release of the company's integrated operational advantages [1] - Recovery in the prices of cobalt and lithium metals is a significant factor in the expected profit increase [1] - Management reforms and deepened cost reduction and efficiency enhancement efforts are also contributing to the positive outlook [1]

Macro - July economic growth slowed, driven by policy and seasonal factors, with a need for continued policy support to stabilize growth and address structural issues [1][4][31] - The recovery of the economy requires ongoing consumption stimulus policies and optimization of funding allocation in infrastructure projects [4][31] Strategy - The reform of the capital market in China is crucial for stock market valuation, with a focus on improving investor returns, which is expected to boost confidence in Chinese assets [2][5][6] - The shift in valuation logic in the Chinese stock market is moving from economic cycle fluctuations to a decline in discount rates, indicating a bullish outlook for A/H shares [5][9] Overseas Strategy - The Hong Kong stock market has shown weak performance recently, influenced by a depreciating Hong Kong dollar and rising global trade uncertainties [10][11] - The decline in hot sectors and a slowdown in incremental capital inflows have constrained the performance of the Hong Kong stock market [11][34] Food and Beverage - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with the company expecting a revenue decline of 38.3%-41.9% in H1 2025, and a net profit decrease of 39%-40% [2][16] - The introduction of new products like "Da Zhen" and "Niu Shi Beer" is anticipated to contribute to revenue growth and improve margins [2][17] Home Appliances - The company is increasing its market share in domestic refrigeration cabinets, with the launch of its first overseas factory in Indonesia, which is expected to create new growth opportunities [2][19][20] - The demand for commercial refrigeration products is projected to grow due to the expansion of convenience stores and the rise of smart cabinets [21]