亮点三：资产负债表持续修复，现金流改善，应收账款账龄结构优化。近两年受地方政府债务以及房地 产行业下行冲击，公司收入、利润呈现一定压力，2025Q1-3 营业总收入7284亿，同比-3.9%，归母净利 润148 亿，同比-5.6%。收入、利润承压背后，公司报表修复，2024 年公司开展"三金"压控三年计划， 2025Q1-3 经营性现金流同比少流出92.6 亿，同时，公司应收账款账龄结构优化，长账龄占比有所下 降，2022 年1 年以内账龄占比67.97%，2024 年已提升至72.23%，2025H1 进一步提升至75.27%。 亮点四： H 股折价明显，港股股息率更具吸引力。截至2025 年12 月8 日，中国铁建A 股PE （TTM）/PB 估值分别为5.5X/0.43X，H 股PE（TTM）/PB 估值分别为3.6X/0.25X，H股相较于A 股折价 明显。从分红角度看，2021-2024 年中国铁建派发现金红利分别为33.4亿/38.0 亿/47.5 亿/40.7 亿， 占当 期上市公司普通股股东可供分配利润的15.37%/15.91%/20.18%/20.60%，当前A 股股息率3.87%，H 股 ...

申万宏源发布研报称，首次覆盖，给予中国铁建(01186)"增持"评级,中国铁建2026年行业投资预期总体 稳定。尽管基建等领域面临压力，但在地方政府化债及"两重"项目推动下，投资有望得到支撑。2025前 三季度新签订单实现同比正增长，其中绿色环保等新兴业务增长强劲，结构持续优化。整体来看公司在 手订单充裕，新兴业务拓展顺利，财务状况改善，为长期稳健增长提供了保障。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 2026年行业投资维稳，总量有支撑 年初至今固定资产投资增速放缓，基建、制造业、地产均呈现压力，展望2026年，随着地方政府化债的 有序推进，叠加中央"两重"项目实施，2026年投资有望维稳，部分子板块则有望随国家战略而获得较高 投资弹性。 公司新签订单边际改善，结构优化，在手订单充裕，保障长期稳健增长 公司2021-2024、2025Q1-3累计新签合同额分别同比+10.39%/+15.09%/+1.51%/-7.80%/+3.08%，2025年 前三季度新签订单边际改善。从新签合同额细分结构看，2025Q1-3工程承包新签1.11万亿，同 比-0.39%，绿色环保新签1445亿，同比+15.44%，物资物流新签1522亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC) reported a decline in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating challenges in its core business segments [1] Financial Performance - The operating revenue for the first half of 2025 was 489.199 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.22% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 10.701 billion yuan, down 10.09% year-on-year [1] - Basic earnings per share stood at 0.7 yuan [1] Business Segments - The revenue decline was primarily due to reduced activities in engineering contracting, planning and design consulting, real estate development, and material logistics [1] Contractual Performance - The total new contracts signed in the first half of 2025 amounted to 1,056.1696 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.04% [1] - Domestic new contracts totaled 942.0752 billion yuan, accounting for 89.20% of the total, with a year-on-year decline of 8.37% [1] - International new contracts reached 114.0944 billion yuan, representing 10.80% of the total, with a significant year-on-year increase of 57.43% [1] Unfinished Contracts - As of June 30, 2025, the total amount of unfinished contracts was 8,068.2444 billion yuan [1] - Unfinished domestic contracts totaled 6,539.8293 billion yuan, making up 81.06% of the total [1] - Unfinished international contracts amounted to 1,528.4151 billion yuan, accounting for 18.94% of the total [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 9.08 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 7.81 CNY as of April 30, 2025 [5]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 revenue was 256.76 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 6.61%, primarily due to weak demand in traditional business sectors. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.15 billion CNY, down 14.51% year-on-year, with a decline in gross margin contributing to the profit drop [2][3]. - Despite the revenue and profit decline, the company has a solid order backlog of 7.86 trillion CNY, approximately 7.4 times its 2024 revenue, indicating a strong foundation for future revenue growth [2]. - The company signed new contracts worth 492.84 billion CNY in Q1 2025, with a notable increase in overseas contracts by 30.10% year-on-year, while domestic contracts decreased by 13.17% [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a gross margin decline of 0.28 percentage points, leading to a sales net profit margin of 2.38%, down 0.20 percentage points year-on-year. The operating cash flow improved, with a net outflow of 38.95 billion CNY, which is 7.65 billion CNY less than the previous year [2][3]. Order and Contract Activity - The new contract value in Q1 2025 was 492.84 billion CNY, with domestic contracts at 448.68 billion CNY and overseas contracts at 44.16 billion CNY. The growth in the green environmental sector and railway engineering contracts was particularly strong, with increases of 77.05% and 66.25% year-on-year, respectively [4]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.08 trillion CNY, 1.10 trillion CNY, and 1.11 trillion CNY, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 1.50%, 1.30%, and 1.30%. The net profit forecasts for the same period are 22.47 billion CNY, 22.73 billion CNY, and 22.99 billion CNY, with corresponding growth rates of 1.15% each year [9][10].