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中西部基建有哪些重大项目和潜在催化值得期待
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-06-08 07:43
行情回顾 根据总市值加权平均统计,本周(0602-0606)建筑指数上涨 1.33%,沪深 300 板块上涨 0.96%,建筑设计及服务、基建建设板块涨幅居前,涨幅分别 为 2.09%、1.34%,较沪深 300 分别取得 1.13pct、0.38pct 的正收益。本周涨 幅居前的标的有:中衡设计(+26.5%)、重庆建工(+26.12%)、招标股份 (+17.86%)、园林股份(+14.99%)、中设咨询(+13.76%)。 风险提示:基建&地产投资超预期下行;央企、国企改革提效进度不及预期; 关税影响超预期。 行业报告 | 行业研究周报 建筑装饰 证券研究报告 中西部基建有哪些重大项目和潜在催化值得期待 核心观点 本周 CS 建筑上涨 1.33%,跑赢沪深 300 0.36pct。设计和基建板块股价整体 表现较好,中西部基建关注度明显提升。自 5 月以来,我们持续建议重点 关注中西部基建投资机会,除了区域固投景气度显著提升外,大项目和事 件密集催化也值得期待。本周我们梳理了相关区域内重大基建项目,区域 内地方国企、民爆、水泥、专业工程服务公司或受益较多。我们继续维持 此前观点,建议重点关注中西部基建(建筑 ...
战略腹地重视度进一步提升,重视中西部基建景气度提升
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-18 07:28
行业报告 | 行业研究周报 建筑装饰 证券研究报告 战略腹地重视度进一步提升,重视中西部基建景气度提升 核心观点 本周 CS 建筑上涨 1.10%,沪深 300 上涨 1.10%,基本面较好的中大市值龙头 (化学,鸿路,中建等)表现较好,或主要受益于公募基金考核新规带来 的潜在调仓,中小市值转型标的如大千生态、东珠生态等表现亦较好。我 们认为虽然关税缓和使得基建预期有所削弱,但实际上基建仍是今年稳经 济重要抓手,中西部基建受益于国家战略、大体量资金支持以及逐步退出 债务重点监控区域后的投资反弹,弹性有望明显好于全国,本周我们对战 略腹地相关政策和中西部 1-4 月专项债发行情况进行了梳理。当前时点, 我们继续维持此前观点,固投产业链重点关注中西部基建和重点产业投资 (煤化工)带来的产业链相关机会,同时关注中小市值建筑转型品种。 战略腹地重视度进一步提升,重视中西部区域尤其是四川省的发展机遇 战略腹地 2023 年底中央经济工作会议被提及,2024 年首次被写入政府工 作报告。2023 年 7 月,习近平总书记在四川视察时,指出四川是我国发展 的战略腹地,2023 年底召开的中央经济工作会议强调"优化重大生产力 ...
中国铁建(601186):营收、业绩同比承压,现金流同比改善
Guotou Securities· 2025-05-06 01:03
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 9.08 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 7.81 CNY as of April 30, 2025 [5]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 revenue was 256.76 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 6.61%, primarily due to weak demand in traditional business sectors. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.15 billion CNY, down 14.51% year-on-year, with a decline in gross margin contributing to the profit drop [2][3]. - Despite the revenue and profit decline, the company has a solid order backlog of 7.86 trillion CNY, approximately 7.4 times its 2024 revenue, indicating a strong foundation for future revenue growth [2]. - The company signed new contracts worth 492.84 billion CNY in Q1 2025, with a notable increase in overseas contracts by 30.10% year-on-year, while domestic contracts decreased by 13.17% [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a gross margin decline of 0.28 percentage points, leading to a sales net profit margin of 2.38%, down 0.20 percentage points year-on-year. The operating cash flow improved, with a net outflow of 38.95 billion CNY, which is 7.65 billion CNY less than the previous year [2][3]. Order and Contract Activity - The new contract value in Q1 2025 was 492.84 billion CNY, with domestic contracts at 448.68 billion CNY and overseas contracts at 44.16 billion CNY. The growth in the green environmental sector and railway engineering contracts was particularly strong, with increases of 77.05% and 66.25% year-on-year, respectively [4]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.08 trillion CNY, 1.10 trillion CNY, and 1.11 trillion CNY, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 1.50%, 1.30%, and 1.30%. The net profit forecasts for the same period are 22.47 billion CNY, 22.73 billion CNY, and 22.99 billion CNY, with corresponding growth rates of 1.15% each year [9][10].