证券研究报告 | 2025年09月01日 三峡能源（600905.SH） 优于大市 利用小时数、电价下降影响利润，新能源项目建设稳步推进 2025Q2 营业收入小幅下降，扣非归母净利润降幅较大。2025 年上半年，公 司实现营业收入 147.36 亿元（-2.19%），归母净利润 38.15 亿元 （-5.48%），扣非归母净利润 32.00 亿元（-20.74%）。2025 年第二季 度，公司实现营业收入 71.07 亿元（-0.79%），归母净利润 13.68 亿元 （-15.41%），扣非归母净利润 11.16 亿元（-31.02%）。公司营业收入 和归母净利润下降的原因：（1）受电源分布和各地区消纳情况综合影 响，发电平均利用小时数同比下降；（2）上网电量结构变化和市场化 交易电量比重上升，综合平均电价同比有所下降；（3）随着并网项目 陆续投产，折旧及运营成本随在建工程转固同比增加。公司扣非归母净 利润下降幅度较大的原因：2025 年上半年，公司处置参控股水电公司股 权及相关债权，投资收益较同比增加 4.66 亿元，导致非经常性收益较 高。 新能源项目建设推进，装机容量持续增长。公司围绕"沙戈荒大基地 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][25] Core Views - The company's revenue slightly decreased in the first half of 2025, with a significant decline in net profit due to factors such as reduced average utilization hours and a decrease in average electricity prices [1][8] - The company is actively advancing its renewable energy projects, focusing on land-based wind and solar power, and has seen a continuous increase in installed capacity [2][24] - Profit forecasts for the company remain stable, with expected net profits of 6.74 billion, 7.23 billion, and 7.74 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating growth rates of 10.2%, 7.4%, and 7.1% [3][25] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 14.736 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.19%, and a net profit of 3.815 billion yuan, down 5.48%. The non-recurring net profit fell by 20.74% to 3.200 billion yuan [1][8] - The average utilization hours for wind and solar power decreased, impacting overall performance, with wind power utilization down by 97 hours and solar power by 96 hours year-on-year [13][17] Project Development - The company added 2.1807 million kilowatts of new installed capacity in the first half of 2025, with 538,100 kilowatts from wind power and 1,642,600 kilowatts from solar power [2][24] - As of June 2025, the total operational installed capacity reached 49.9366 million kilowatts, with plans for an additional 26.9649 million kilowatts in new projects [24] Profit Forecasts and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 6.736 billion yuan in 2025, 7.232 billion yuan in 2026, and 7.744 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.24, 0.25, and 0.27 yuan [3][25] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 18.1, 16.8, and 15.7 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][21]. Core Views - The company's revenue increased by 12.13% year-on-year to 29.717 billion yuan in 2024, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 14.81% to 6.111 billion yuan due to factors such as declining electricity prices and increased operational costs [1][8]. - The company is actively advancing its renewable energy projects, with a planned installed capacity of 16.4385 million kilowatts by the end of 2024, including 4.8684 million kilowatts of wind power and 7.4501 million kilowatts of solar power [3][20]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecast downward due to the impact of falling electricity prices, with expected net profits of 6.74 billion yuan in 2025, 7.23 billion yuan in 2026, and 7.74 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 10.2%, 7.4%, and 7.1% respectively [4][21]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 29.717 billion yuan, a 12.13% increase, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.111 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.81% [1][8]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 7.628 billion yuan, down 3.47%, and a net profit of 2.447 billion yuan, up 1.16% [2][9]. Project Development - The company is focusing on offshore wind power development in regions such as Guangdong, Fujian, and Jiangsu, while also expanding into other areas like Shandong and Liaoning [3][20]. - By the end of 2024, the company plans to have 16.4385 million kilowatts of projects under construction, with significant contributions from wind and solar energy [3][20]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 6.74 billion yuan, 7.23 billion yuan, and 7.74 billion yuan respectively [4][21]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 18.2 for 2025, 16.9 for 2026, and 15.8 for 2027 [4][21].