Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Shanghai Aluminum [1] - Report Cycle: Daily - Date: September 10, 2025 2. Investment Rating - Not provided 3. Core View - The electrolytic aluminum market is currently in a stage of game between macro - expectations and fundamental reality. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut provides macro - benefits, but the degree of fundamental demand recovery still needs to be verified. Aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock in the short term [11] 4. Section Summaries 4.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On September 10, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum al2510 contract maintained a volatile trend throughout the day, with a trading volume of 93,249 lots and an open interest of 196,440 lots [2] - **Variety Price**: The total open interest of 12 Shanghai Aluminum futures contracts was 542,337 lots, an increase of 7,282 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract al2510 increased by 2,246 lots [2] 4.2 Spot Market - On September 10, 2025, the basis of the main contract Shanghai Aluminum al2510 weakened. The spot aluminum price in East China was 20,750 yuan/ton, the closing price of the futures main contract was 20,790 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 40 yuan/ton [5] 4.3 Influencing Factors - **Macro News**: The recent global macro - environment shows a mixed situation. US non - farm payrolls growth unexpectedly cooled in August, with only 22,000 new jobs added. The June employment data was revised down to negative growth, and the unemployment rate rose to a new high since 2021 [6] - **Fundamental News**: The supply of electrolytic aluminum remains high and stable, and the production capacity is approaching the policy ceiling. The demand side is on the verge of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, showing signs of marginal improvement. The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises has rebounded, but they are still resistant to high - priced aluminum and their purchasing attitude is cautious. As of September 10, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period of the past five years, providing some support for aluminum prices [7] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily line of the Shanghai Aluminum 2510 contract fluctuates above the short - term moving average and is still in a box. The MACD yellow and white lines are glued, the trading volume is shrinking, and the long - short game of funds is intense [8]

Group 1 - LME copper prices stabilized due to a weakening dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East impacting market sentiment [1][3] - On June 18, LME three-month copper closed at $9,655.50 per ton, down $13.50 or 0.14% [2][4] - Copper inventories in LME registered warehouses decreased by 60% since March, reaching a low of 107,350 tons, the lowest level since May 2024 [3] Group 2 - The premium for spot copper over the three-month contract approached $150 per ton, the highest since October 2022, compared to a discount in late April [3] - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reported a global refined copper production of 2.5175 million tons and consumption of 2.3238 million tons for April 2025, resulting in a surplus of 193,600 tons [3] - For aluminum, global production was 6.0912 million tons with consumption at 5.8649 million tons, leading to a surplus of 226,300 tons [5]