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长青集团(002616):深度研究报告:火电项目存预期差,生物质项目或迎扭亏机遇,与中科系合作打开未来成长空间
Huachuang Securities· 2025-07-05 13:50
Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 7.6 CNY, representing a potential upside of approximately 25% from the current price of 6.07 CNY [2][10]. Core Views - The company focuses on biomass comprehensive applications and power and heat production, with a total installed capacity of 705,000 kW as of the end of 2024, including 491,000 kW for biomass power generation, 160,000 kW for coal power projects, and 54,000 kW for waste-to-energy projects [6][14]. - The report highlights the strong profitability of the Hebei coal power projects, which have shown a significant negative correlation with coal prices over the past decade, indicating that lower coal prices could enhance profitability [7][44]. - There is an expectation for the biomass projects to potentially turn profitable due to the industry's expansion phase and the company's leading position, despite facing operational pressures and subsidy delays [8][10]. - Collaboration with the Zhongke system is anticipated to open new growth opportunities, enhancing the company's shareholder structure and facilitating strategic partnerships [9][10]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 3,786 million CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 4.6%, followed by a slight increase in 2025 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 217 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 36.3% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.29 CNY in 2024, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 21 times [2]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio stands at 73.41%, indicating a relatively high level of debt [3]. Business Analysis - The company operates in three main segments: biomass power generation, coal-fired centralized heating, and waste-to-energy projects, with biomass power generation being the largest segment [6][31]. - The profitability of the coal power projects is supported by strong energy demand from industrial parks in Hebei, where the company’s projects are located [51][65]. - The report notes that the biomass power generation segment has faced challenges due to high raw material costs and delayed subsidy payments, but there is potential for recovery as coal prices decline [8][10][43].
长青集团(002616) - 002616长青集团投资者关系管理信息20250609
2025-06-09 09:18
Group 1: Company Overview - The company is positioned as a full industry chain platform for the utilization of agricultural and forestry biomass resources in the A-share market [3] - Development strategy focuses on high-efficiency, low-emission thermal power projects primarily based on non-subsidy income, while also transitioning towards energy and material utilization [3] - In 2024, the company achieved its second-highest revenue since listing, with operating cash flow reaching a five-year high, and a 15% year-on-year increase in non-subsidy income [3] Group 2: Financial Performance - Significant growth in Q1 2025 was driven by a decrease in fuel costs and an increase in VAT refunds, alongside improved operational efficiency of thermal power projects [4] - The company aims for non-electricity business to achieve double-digit annual growth in scale and revenue by 2025 [3] Group 3: Market and Industry Insights - The company sees growth potential in biomass heat and power generation, supported by national policies promoting orderly development and transition to combined heat and power [6] - Currently, 11 projects have achieved combined heat and power generation, with expectations for more projects to follow in the current year [6] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - The company is exploring the "green electricity direct connection" model, prioritizing biomass projects nearing the end of their subsidy periods as potential pilots [7] - A strategic partnership with Zhongke Xinkong is underway to enhance digital transformation and smart upgrades, aiming to reduce costs and improve efficiency [8] Group 5: Shareholder Updates - The transfer of shares from the controlling shareholder to Zhongke Hongyuan is currently under compliance review by the exchange, with a commitment to a 12-month lock-up period post-transfer [9] Group 6: Investor Relations - The investor relations activity on June 5, 2025, included participation from 85 investors, with the company emphasizing that the completeness and accuracy of participant names cannot be guaranteed [2]