8月28日，长青集团跌5.2%，截至发稿，报6.38元/股，成交2.29亿元，换手率7.45%，总市值47.34亿 元。 资料显示，广东长青(集团)股份有限公司位于广东省中山市小榄工业大道南42号，成立日期1993年8月6 日，上市日期2011年9月20日，公司主营业务涉及生物质热电联产、生活垃圾发电和工业园区燃煤集中 供热三大板块。主营业务收入构成为：电力53.81%，热力43.62%，其他2.58%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 责任编辑：小浪快报 东方红中证优势成长指数发起A（018920）成立日期2023年9月19日，最新规模9163.42万。今年以来收 益25.94%，同类排名1439/4222；近一年收益51.61%，同类排名1610/3776；成立以来收益46.74%。 东方红中证优势成长指数发起A（018920）基金经理为徐习佳、戎逸洲。 截至发稿，徐习佳累计任职时间6年31天，现任基金资产总规模75.45亿元，任 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 7.6 CNY, representing a potential upside of approximately 25% from the current price of 6.07 CNY [2][10]. Core Views - The company focuses on biomass comprehensive applications and power and heat production, with a total installed capacity of 705,000 kW as of the end of 2024, including 491,000 kW for biomass power generation, 160,000 kW for coal power projects, and 54,000 kW for waste-to-energy projects [6][14]. - The report highlights the strong profitability of the Hebei coal power projects, which have shown a significant negative correlation with coal prices over the past decade, indicating that lower coal prices could enhance profitability [7][44]. - There is an expectation for the biomass projects to potentially turn profitable due to the industry's expansion phase and the company's leading position, despite facing operational pressures and subsidy delays [8][10]. - Collaboration with the Zhongke system is anticipated to open new growth opportunities, enhancing the company's shareholder structure and facilitating strategic partnerships [9][10]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 3,786 million CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 4.6%, followed by a slight increase in 2025 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 217 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 36.3% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.29 CNY in 2024, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 21 times [2]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio stands at 73.41%, indicating a relatively high level of debt [3]. Business Analysis - The company operates in three main segments: biomass power generation, coal-fired centralized heating, and waste-to-energy projects, with biomass power generation being the largest segment [6][31]. - The profitability of the coal power projects is supported by strong energy demand from industrial parks in Hebei, where the company’s projects are located [51][65]. - The report notes that the biomass power generation segment has faced challenges due to high raw material costs and delayed subsidy payments, but there is potential for recovery as coal prices decline [8][10][43].

Summary of the Conference Call for Guangda Environment Industry Overview - Guangda Environment is the largest waste-to-energy operator in China, holding approximately 16% market share in 2023, significantly ahead of competitors [2][4] - The waste-to-energy sector is characterized by a land-grabbing nature, where early positioning in quality locations can yield higher electricity prices [10] Company Performance and Financials - The environmental energy segment contributed 52% of the company's revenue, 96% of EBITDA, and 97% of net profit in 2024, indicating it as the core profit source [2][4] - The company experienced a rapid capacity expansion from 2010 to 2020, with a capacity growth rate of 30%, particularly through the PPP model from 2016 to 2022 [2][7] - In 2024, operational revenue is expected to account for 64% of total revenue, with the energy and environmental segment contributing 61% [2][14] - The overall operational cash flow is approximately 8.9 billion HKD, with a pure cash flow of about 7 billion HKD [2][14] Cash Flow and Dividends - The waste-to-energy industry is projected to achieve positive free cash flow in 2024, improving from a negative 400 million HKD in 2023 to a positive 600 million HKD [3] - The dividend payout ratio has steadily increased to 34%, up by 7 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Long-term free cash flow is estimated at around 2 billion HKD, which exceeds the total dividends for 2024, indicating sustainability even without subsidies [15][18] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Guangda Environment's single project capacity is approximately 900 tons per day, above the industry average, with a power generation efficiency of 330 kWh per ton, reflecting high operational efficiency and technological advantages [9] - The company maintains a strong market position in waste-to-energy, with a market share of 16%, while its wastewater treatment segment holds about 3% market share [6][4] Challenges and Future Outlook - The green environmental segment, including agricultural biomass power generation and hazardous waste treatment, faces challenges due to reduced demand and profitability [12][13] - The water business is expected to perform steadily, with a gross margin of about 42%, close to the industry average, benefiting from improved local fiscal conditions and potential increases in residential water prices [11] - Future focus areas include the Hunan region, which is anticipated to become a key area for expansion, with a projected market share of 9% [10] Investment Considerations - The company's current PE ratio is approximately 6.8, with a dividend yield of 6.5%, indicating strong long-term investment value [18] - Despite fluctuations in public fund holdings, southbound capital has been increasing, suggesting long-term investment interest [17]