证券研究报告 | 2025年07月21日 公用环保 202507 第 3 期 优于大市 市场回顾：本周沪深 300 指数上涨 1.09%，公用事业指数下跌 1.37%，环 保指数下跌 0.49%，周相对收益率分别为-2.46%和-1.58%。电力板块子 板块中，火电下跌 1.04%；水电下跌 2.13%，新能源发电下跌 0.68%；水 务板块下跌 0.57%；燃气板块上涨 0.31%。 重要事件：雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工仪式 7 月 19 日上午在西藏自治 区林芝市举行。国家领导出席开工仪式，并宣布工程正式开工。雅鲁藏 布江下游水电工程位于西藏自治区林芝市。工程主要采取截弯取直、隧 洞引水的开发方式，建设 5 座梯级电站，总投资约 1.2 万亿元。工程电 力以外送消纳为主，兼顾西藏本地自用需求。国家统计局发布 6 月份发 电量数据，6 月规上工业发电量 7963 亿千瓦时，同比增长 1.7%，增速 比 5 月份加快 1.2 个百分点。 专题研究：甘肃省发改委于 2025 年 7 月 14 日发布《甘肃省关于建立发 电侧容量电价机制的通知（征求意见稿）》，对发电侧容量电价的实施 范围、容量电价标准、容量电费分 ...

Summary of Changqing Group's Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - Changqing Group has transitioned from die-casting to biomass power generation, becoming a significant player in China's biomass power sector [2][5] - The company divested its gas appliance business in 2021 to focus on downstream energy operations [2] Core Points and Arguments - **Financial Performance**: The company faces challenges from rising fuel costs and difficulties in renewable energy fund disbursement, leading to flat revenue and costs. However, recent declines in coal prices are expected to benefit its thermal power business, potentially improving profitability [2][6] - **Thermal Power Business**: The thermal power segment, particularly the cogeneration units, has shown strong performance, providing stable heating services to industrial parks and paper mills. The "Mancheng Project" is projected to contribute 130 million yuan in net profit in 2024, accounting for over half of the company's total profit [2][10] - **Biomass Business**: While biomass power generation is the main source of installed capacity, it has been impacted by rising coal prices. Future catalysts in the industry could enhance profitability in this segment [2][11] - **Future Profitability**: Despite challenges, the company shows signs of revenue and profit recovery even during coal price downturns. Large units (500,000 kW) are currently at breakeven but have significant potential for profit improvement with better fuel costs [2][13] Additional Important Insights - **Asset Composition**: As of the end of 2024, the company has a total installed capacity of approximately 700,000 kW, with biomass power accounting for about 500,000 kW [3] - **Industry Challenges**: The company has faced multiple challenges, including rising fuel costs and issues with renewable energy fund payments, which have led to a significant amount of accounts receivable [6][14] - **Catalysts for Growth**: Key future catalysts include market expectations for the thermal power business, potential recovery in biomass profitability due to falling coal prices, and collaborations with the Chinese Academy of Sciences for technological advancements [7][15] - **Profit Forecast**: Future profit projections are 330 million yuan, 350 million yuan, and 390 million yuan over the next three years, with a potential profit elasticity of over 50% in 2025 [16] Conclusion Changqing Group is positioned to benefit from recent coal price declines and has a clear strategy for growth through its thermal and biomass power segments. The company's collaborations and market positioning suggest a favorable outlook for future profitability and valuation.

Market Overview - In June, the CSI 300 index rose by 2.50%, while the public utility index fell by 0.54% and the environmental index increased by 0.81%, with relative returns of -3.04% and -1.42% respectively [1][14] - Among the 31 primary industry sectors, public utilities and environmental sectors ranked 25th and 19th in terms of growth [1][14] - The environmental sector saw a rise of 1.08%, while within the electricity sector, thermal power decreased by 0.94%, hydropower fell by 1.76%, and renewable energy generation increased by 1.98% [1][26] Important Events - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting emphasized strengthening and expanding the marine industry, promoting orderly construction of offshore wind power [15] - National electricity load exceeded 1.465 billion kilowatts on July 4, marking a historical high, with a rise of approximately 200 million kilowatts since the end of June and an increase of nearly 150 million kilowatts year-on-year [15] Supply and Demand Analysis - The electricity industry has experienced three cycles of supply and demand changes since 2000, with future supply expected to increase significantly due to new thermal power units coming online and growth in renewable and nuclear power installations [2][22] - The demand side shows a decline in electricity consumption growth, particularly in high-energy-consuming industries, leading to a stabilization of overall electricity demand growth [2][23] Investment Strategy - Public Utilities: Recommendations include large thermal power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as well as leading renewable energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [3][24] - Nuclear power companies like China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are expected to maintain stable profitability, with a recommendation for China Power Investment Corporation as a restructuring target [3][24] - In the water and waste incineration sectors, companies like China Everbright Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities are highlighted for their cash flow improvements [3][24] Key Company Profit Forecasts - Huadian International (600027.SH): Expected EPS of 0.46 in 2024, PE ratio of 12.2 [8] - Longyuan Power (001289.SZ): Expected EPS of 0.75 in 2024, PE ratio of 22.3 [8] - China Nuclear Power (601985.SH): Expected EPS of 0.46 in 2024, PE ratio of 20.5 [8] - China Everbright Environment (0257.HK): Expected EPS of 0.55 in 2024, PE ratio of 7.3 [8]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 7.6 CNY, representing a potential upside of approximately 25% from the current price of 6.07 CNY [2][10]. Core Views - The company focuses on biomass comprehensive applications and power and heat production, with a total installed capacity of 705,000 kW as of the end of 2024, including 491,000 kW for biomass power generation, 160,000 kW for coal power projects, and 54,000 kW for waste-to-energy projects [6][14]. - The report highlights the strong profitability of the Hebei coal power projects, which have shown a significant negative correlation with coal prices over the past decade, indicating that lower coal prices could enhance profitability [7][44]. - There is an expectation for the biomass projects to potentially turn profitable due to the industry's expansion phase and the company's leading position, despite facing operational pressures and subsidy delays [8][10]. - Collaboration with the Zhongke system is anticipated to open new growth opportunities, enhancing the company's shareholder structure and facilitating strategic partnerships [9][10]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 3,786 million CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 4.6%, followed by a slight increase in 2025 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 217 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 36.3% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.29 CNY in 2024, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 21 times [2]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio stands at 73.41%, indicating a relatively high level of debt [3]. Business Analysis - The company operates in three main segments: biomass power generation, coal-fired centralized heating, and waste-to-energy projects, with biomass power generation being the largest segment [6][31]. - The profitability of the coal power projects is supported by strong energy demand from industrial parks in Hebei, where the company’s projects are located [51][65]. - The report notes that the biomass power generation segment has faced challenges due to high raw material costs and delayed subsidy payments, but there is potential for recovery as coal prices decline [8][10][43].

一、股权转让交易概述 | 证券代码：002616 | 证券简称：长青集团 | 公告编号：2025-026 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：128105 | 债券简称：长集转债 | | 广东长青（集团）股份有限公司 关于转让鱼台长青环保能源有限公司 100%股权的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 广东长青（集团）股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）与鱼台县人民政府管 理的鱼台县华兴新能源有限公司（以下简称"华兴新能源"）于 2025 年 2 月 18 日签署《关于鱼台长青环保能源有限公司之股权转（受）让协议》（以下简称"本 协议"），公司将全资子公司鱼台长青环保能源有限公司（以下简称 "鱼台环保"） 的 100%股权转让给华兴新能源（以下简称"本次交易"）。双方协商后确定鱼台 环保截止评估基准日 100%股权作价为人民币 29,300.00 万元，并约定由华兴新 能源按指定方式偿还鱼台环保对公司的借款人民币 10,839.85 万元。 本次交易已由公司第六届董事会第二十五次会议、第六届监事会第十八次 会议审批通过，并 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The announcement details the conversion results of the "Changji Convertible Bonds" and the changes in the company's share capital as of June 30, 2025, highlighting the limited conversion activity and the remaining unconverted bond amount. Group 1: Convertible Bond Issuance and Conversion - The company issued 8 million convertible bonds with a total value of 800 million RMB, each with a face value of 100 RMB, which began trading on May 13, 2020 [2] - The initial conversion price was set at 8.31 RMB per share, later adjusted to 8.11 RMB and subsequently to 7.91 RMB [3][4] - As of June 30, 2025, a total of 942,100 RMB worth of bonds had been converted into 140,967 shares, representing 0.0190% of the total shares issued prior to conversion [1] Group 2: Remaining Convertible Bonds - As of June 30, 2025, the unconverted amount of "Changji Convertible Bonds" stood at 604,988,500 RMB, accounting for 75.6236% of the total issuance [1] - The company has made several adjustments to the conversion price, with the latest adjustment setting it at 5.30 RMB per share effective from September 18, 2024 [4] Group 3: Share Capital Changes - The total number of shares before the conversion was 271,736,100, which remained unchanged during the period from April 1, 2025, to June 30, 2025 [5] - The unlimited circulation shares increased by 377 shares, resulting in a total of 470,288,011 shares [5]

| 证券代码：002616 | 证券简称：长青集团 公告编号：2025-025 | | --- | --- | | 债券代码：128105 | 债券简称：长集转债 | 根据《深圳证券交易所股票上市规则》《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管 指引第 15 号——可转换公司债券》的有关规定，广东长青（集团）股份有限公 司（以下简称"公司"）现将自 2025 年 4 月 1 日到 2025 年 6 月 30 日可转换公司 债券（以下简称"可转债"）转股及公司股份变动的情况公告如下： 一、"长集转债"发行上市基本概况 经中国证券监督管理委员会"证监许可[2019]2009 号"文核准，公司于 2020 年 4 月 9 日公开发行了 800 万张可转换公司债券，每张面值 100 元，发行总额 8.00 亿元。 广东长青（集团）股份有限公司 经深交所"深证上[2020]372 号"文同意，公司 8.00 亿元可转换公司债券 于 2020 年 5 月 13 日起在深交所挂牌交易，债券简称"长集转债"，债券代码 "128105"。 关于 2025 年二季度可转债转股结果暨股本变动公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - The company, Guangdong Changqing (Group) Co., Ltd., reported a revenue of 3.786 billion yuan last year, marking the second-highest since its listing in 2011 [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 217 million yuan, the second-highest in the past five years [2] - Operating cash flow reached 592 million yuan, the highest in the last five years [3] Group 2: Recent Performance and Developments - In Q1 of this year, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 81 million yuan, showing significant growth [3] - The company received 139 million yuan from the sale of the Yutai project and has invested in a 49% stake in Zhongke Xinkong Big Data as part of its digital transformation strategy [3] Group 3: Investor Interaction and Concerns - The company has established a coal-steam price linkage mechanism, which has led to a decrease in steam prices due to falling coal prices, affecting heating revenue [3] - The proportion of central and local subsidies for the biomass project varies by province, and investors are advised to refer to the National Development and Reform Commission's guidelines [3] - The sale of the Yutai project was a strategic decision to optimize financial structure and enhance risk resistance [3] Group 4: Revenue Sources - The majority of the company's heating revenue comes from industrial heating, with residential heating contributing a small proportion [4] Group 5: Risk Disclaimer - The information provided does not constitute a commitment or guarantee from the company regarding industry forecasts or development strategies, and investors are advised to make rational decisions and be aware of investment risks [5]

广东长青(集团)股份有限公司 2025 年度跟踪评级报告 编号：信评委函字[2025]跟踪 0408 号 广东长青(集团)股份有限公司 2025 年度跟踪评级报告 广东长青(集团)股份有限公司 2025 年度跟踪评级报告 声 明 中诚信国际信用评级有限责任公司 2025 年 6 月 9 日 2 本次评级为委托评级，中诚信国际及其评估人员与评级委托方、评级对象不存在任何其他影响本次评级行为独立、 客观、公正的关联关系。 本次评级依据评级对象提供或已经正式对外公布的信息，以及其他根据监管规定收集的信息，中诚信国际按照相关 性、及时性、可靠性的原则对评级信息进行审慎分析，但中诚信国际对于相关信息的合法性、真实性、完整性、准 确性不作任何保证。 中诚信国际及项目人员履行了尽职调查和诚信义务，有充分理由保证本次评级遵循了真实、客观、公正的原则。 评级报告的评级结论是中诚信国际依据合理的内部信用评级标准和方法、评级程序做出的独立判断，未受评级委托 方、评级对象和其他第三方的干预和影响。 本评级报告对评级对象信用状况的任何表述和判断仅作为相关决策参考之用，并不意味着中诚信国际实质性建议任 何使用人据此报告采取投资、借贷等交 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Kaifeng Investment has conducted research on Changqing Group, highlighting its operational highlights and development goals for 2024, including non-subsidy revenue growth and reduced fuel costs [1] - Changqing Group's first-quarter performance growth is attributed to decreased fuel costs and increased VAT refunds, with biomass fuel procurement prices declining due to reduced market competition and sufficient supply [1] - The company is optimistic about the future development of biomass heating, supported by national policies promoting environmental requirements that encourage enterprises to shift towards centralized heating [1] Group 2 - Changqing Group is focusing on the "green electricity direct connection" model, potentially using projects with expired subsidies as pilot cases [1] - The company is collaborating with Zhongke Xinkong to advance digital transformation, while the share transfer agreement with the controlling shareholder to Zhongke Hongyuan is still under review [1]