生猪期货2511合约

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挺价意愿渐强,猪价维持震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 07:51
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the pig and egg markets is "Cautiously Bearish" [3][5] 2. Core Views - For the pig market, although the expected reduction in pig slaughter next week due to short - term supply adjustment may make spot and near - term contract prices firmer, the overall oversupply situation remains unchanged, having little impact on 2026 pig contracts and being favorable for hedging demand to participate at high prices. The current reduction in supply has increased compared to the end of June and July, which needs continuous monitoring [2] - For the egg market, with school stocking completed and tourism and catering demand decreasing, and due to the reduced consumption of end - products of food companies, food companies are purchasing cautiously. The inventory of cold - storage eggs has weakened market confidence, and the supply - side pressure has made the festival boost this year obviously weak [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live hog 2511 contract yesterday was 13,625 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (+0.52%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live hogs was 14.17 yuan/kg (unchanged); in Jiangsu, it was 14.36 yuan/kg, up 0.31 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.63 yuan/kg, up 0.20 yuan/kg. The national average wholesale price of pork on September 1 was 20.01 yuan/kg, up 0.4% from last Friday [1] Market Analysis - The short - term supply adjustment may lead to firmer spot and near - term contract prices, but the overall oversupply pattern persists, having little impact on 2026 contracts [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2510 contract yesterday was 2,921 yuan/500 kilograms, down 18 yuan (-0.61%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 3.20 yuan/jin (unchanged); in Shandong, it was 3.15 yuan/jin (unchanged); in Hebei, it was 2.80 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan. On September 1, the national production - link inventory was 0.73 days, down 0.19 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.00 days, down 0.05 days [3] Market Analysis - With the end of school stocking and the decline in tourism and catering demand, and the cautious purchasing of food companies, the overall demand is declining. Cold - storage egg inventory has weakened market confidence, and the supply - side pressure has made the festival boost weak [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]
瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20250812
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 08:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of live pigs has increased recently due to the accelerated rhythm of weight - reducing sales by the breeding side, while the demand has slightly recovered with the increase in the slaughterhouse's operating rate, but the high temperature still restricts the increase. It is expected that the demand will improve significantly during the upcoming student enrollment and double - festival stocking periods. The spot price of live pigs runs steadily and slightly weakly, but the long - term supply pressure is expected to decrease marginally due to capacity policies, and the futures price of the live pig 2511 contract is stronger than the spot price, showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. It is recommended to try long positions on dips [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 14,230 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 60,882 lots, down 1,419 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 410 lots, up 410 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 19,292 lots, up 2 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Price - The live pig price in Henan Zhumadian is 13,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin Siping is 13,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; in Guangdong Yunfu is 15,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main live pig basis is - 630 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, up 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0430,000 heads, up 10,000 heads [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year change of CPI is 0%, down 0.1 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,940 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spot price of corn is 2,394.12 yuan/ton, down 0.78 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index is 931.74, up 1.06; the monthly output of feed is 29,377,000 tons, up 1,756,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,638 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 134.14 yuan/head, down 17.36 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs is 45.13 yuan/head, up 1.28 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork is 90,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas is 13.9 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 3,0060,000 heads, down 2100,000 heads; the monthly value of catering revenue in total social consumer goods retail sales is 470.76 billion yuan, up 12.94 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On August 12, 2025, the daily national live pig slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises was 277,425 heads, up 0.56% from the previous day; on Tuesday, the live pig 2511 contract closed up 0.21% [2].