Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Palm Oil - Malaysian crude palm oil futures may gradually rebound and return to 4,500 ringgit, and then start an upward trend. Domestic palm oil futures will remain range - bound in the short term and may follow the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil later, maintaining a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength [1]. Soybean Oil - Analysts expect the NOPA members' soybean oil inventory in August 2025 to decrease by 5.8% compared to July. Domestic soybean oil has both long and short factors, with supply being sufficient and consumption increasing, and the basis quote fluctuating narrowly [1]. Corn - Short - term market supply and demand are loose, the futures market is oscillating weakly; in the medium term, it will remain weak, and short - selling should be cautious [2]. Sugar - The international raw sugar price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. The domestic sugar market has spot pressure, and the futures market may stabilize around 5,500 in the short term, but the rebound space is limited, and a high - selling strategy is recommended [6]. Cotton - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range, and after the new cotton is listed, prices will face pressure [7]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to rise to the annual high, but the high inventory and cold - storage eggs may suppress the increase. After the traders' replenishment next week, demand may weaken, and local egg prices may decline slightly [9]. Meal - The domestic meal market has a weak demand pattern, but cost support is strong. It is expected that the 01 contract will operate in the 3,050 - 3,150 range [11]. Pigs - The spot price of pigs is currently weak, but the decline space is limited. Demand is slowly recovering, but whether it can absorb the supply is uncertain. The futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom - out [13][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry Price Changes - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8,610 yuan/ton; the futures price (Y2601) rose by 28 yuan to 8,076 yuan/ton, with a 0.72% increase; the basis (Y2601) decreased by 28 yuan to 534 yuan/ton, a 9.80% decline [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong remained at 9,320 yuan/ton; the futures price (P2601) rose by 112 yuan to 9,174 yuan/ton, a 1.24% increase; the basis (P2601) decreased by 112 yuan to 146 yuan/ton, a 43.41% decline [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 100 yuan to 9,940 yuan/ton; the futures price (Ol601) rose by 15 yuan to 9,511 yuan/ton, a 0.16% increase; the basis (Ol601) decreased by 115 yuan to 429 yuan/ton, a 21.14% decline [1]. Spread Changes - The soybean oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) decreased by 4 yuan to 300 yuan/ton, a 1.32% decline; the palm oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) rose by 14 yuan to 248 yuan/ton, a 5.98% increase; the rapeseed oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) rose by 28 yuan to 380 yuan/ton, a 7.76% increase [1]. Corn Industry Price Changes - The futures price of corn 2511 decreased by 30 yuan to 2,167 yuan/ton, a 1.37% decline; the basis increased by 30 yuan to 143 yuan/ton, a 26.55% increase [2]. - The futures price of corn starch 2511 decreased by 31 yuan to 2,443 yuan/ton, a 1.25% decline; the basis increased by 31 yuan to 117 yuan/ton, a 36.05% increase [2]. Sugar Industry Price Changes - The futures price of sugar 2601 rose by 9 yuan to 5,520 yuan/ton, a 0.16% increase; the ICE raw sugar main contract rose by 0.15 cents to 15.96 cents/pound, a 0.95% increase [6]. Industry Data - The national sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory also increased. The sugar import volume increased by 160% [6]. Cotton Industry Price Changes - The futures price of cotton 2605 rose by 30 yuan to 13,850 yuan/ton, a 0.22% increase; the ICE U.S. cotton main contract rose by 0.06 cents to 66.82 cents/pound, a 0.09% increase [7]. Industry Data - Commercial and industrial inventories decreased month - on - month, while imports increased by 66.7%. The textile industry's inventory decreased year - on - year [7]. Egg Industry Price Changes - The futures price of the egg 11 - contract rose by 103 yuan to 3,143 yuan/500KG, a 3.39% increase; the egg producer price rose by 0.12 yuan to 3.66 yuan/jin, a 3.45% increase [9]. Industry Data - The egg - to - feed ratio rose by 0.07 to 2.50, a 2.88% increase; the breeding profit increased by 4.71 yuan to - 17.89 yuan/feather, a 20.84% increase [9]. Meal Industry Price Changes - The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal decreased by 20 yuan to 3,030 yuan/ton, a 0.66% decline; the futures price (M2601) decreased by 37 yuan to 3,042 yuan/ton, a 1.20% decline [11]. - The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal decreased by 50 yuan to 2,600 yuan/ton, a 1.89% decline; the futures price (RM2601) decreased by 27 yuan to 2,504 yuan/ton, a 1.07% decline [11]. Spread Changes - The oil - to - meal ratio of the main contract rose by 0.05 to 2.75, a 1.87% increase; the soybean - to - rapeseed meal spread in the spot market rose by 30 yuan to 430 yuan/ton, a 7.50% increase [11]. Pig Industry Price Changes - The futures price of the pig 2511 contract rose by 20 yuan to 13,275 yuan/ton, a 0.15% increase; the Henan spot price decreased by 150 yuan to 13,300 yuan/ton [13]. Industry Data - The sample slaughter volume decreased by 590 to 148,082; the self - breeding profit decreased by 35.8 yuan to 17 yuan/head, a 68.02% decline [13].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 7 月 9 日 【生猪日报】供应端整体稳定 价格震荡运行 | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2025/7/9 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 15.07 | 15.15 | -0.08 | 山 西 | 14.88 | 14.95 | -0.07 | | 湖北（0） | 14.64 | 14.64 | 0.00 | 辽 宁 | 14.74 | 14.78 | -0.04 | | 安徽（300） | 15.16 | 15.18 | -0.02 | 吉 林 | 14.71 | 14.74 | -0.03 | | 湖南（100） | 14.49 | 14.44 | 0.05 | 黑龙江 | 14.69 | 14.72 | -0.03 | | 四川 （-200） | 14.44 | 14.41 | 0.03 | 福 建 | 15.74 ...

Group 1 - The three major listed pig companies, Muyuan, New Hope, and Wens, reported a decline in both the average selling price and sales volume of pigs in May 2025 compared to previous months [2][4][5] - The average selling price of pigs in China was 14.57 yuan/kg in May, down 1.09% month-on-month and 7.37% year-on-year, indicating a downward trend in the market [4][6] - Despite the overall decline in sales volume, Muyuan and Wens showed year-on-year growth in sales, while New Hope experienced a decline [5][6] Group 2 - Muyuan led in sales volume with 6.406 million pigs sold, followed by Wens with 3.1554 million and New Hope with 1.3339 million [5] - The profitability of pig farming is under pressure, with the average selling price at 13.91 yuan/kg, which is close to the cost line for self-breeding and self-raising models [6][9] - The price of piglets has been rising, with a significant increase from 32.77 yuan/kg in January to 39.57 yuan/kg in May, indicating a shift in market dynamics [7][8] Group 3 - The head pig companies are increasingly focusing on selling piglets due to higher profit margins compared to adult pigs, with profits for piglets reaching 200-300 yuan per head [9] - The market confidence has improved significantly since 2023, leading to increased demand for piglets from professional breeding farms [9] - The sales strategy of Muyuan has been adjusted in response to market dynamics, reflecting a proactive approach to capitalize on the favorable conditions for piglet sales [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of the pig market remains sufficient, with second - fattening and large pigs from散户 being sold successively, and scale farms expected to reduce supply at the beginning of the month. After the Dragon Boat Festival, demand will decline significantly, and as temperatures rise, it enters the consumption off - season. The pig market has no obvious boost and is mainly in a weak consolidation trend [2]. - The LH2509 contract is mainly in a recent consolidation trend, while the spot price rebounds [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of LH2507 is 13,205, with no change; LH2509 is 13,605, up 90 (0.7%); LH2511 is 13,410, up 230 (1.7%) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The national commodity pig出栏 price is 14.43 yuan/kg, up 0.22 yuan/kg (1.5%); in Henan, it is 14.6 yuan/kg, up 0.38 yuan/kg (2.7%). The出栏 average weight of sample enterprises is 124.13 kg, unchanged [2]. - **Price Spreads and Basis**: The 09 - 07 spread is 400, up 90; the 11 - 09 spread is - 195, up 160. The 7 - month basis is 1315, up 300; the 9 - month basis is 915, up 210 [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of pig warehouse receipts is 0, a decrease of 663 [2]. Piglet and Sow Market - **Piglets**: The average price of weaned piglets is 503.57 yuan/head, down 6.91 yuan/head from last week. The piglet market has declined slightly. Some farmers' enthusiasm for replenishment has decreased [20]. - **Sows**: The average market price of 50KG binary sows is 1641 yuan/head, remaining flat in recent weeks. The market replenishment enthusiasm is not high, and large - scale farms mostly keep sows for self - use, with limited transaction volume [20]. - **Pig Inventory**: From September to December last year, the inventory of breeding sows increased monthly, and the pig production capacity recovered. It is expected that the inventory of commercial pigs in May will continue to increase month - on - month [20]. Slaughter and Consumption - **Slaughter**: The slaughter enterprise's开工 rate is 29.35%, up 0.8 percentage points, mainly driven by pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking demand. The fresh - sales rate of key slaughter enterprises is 89.25%, up 0.16 percentage points. The frozen - product storage rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises is 17.28%, unchanged from last week [28]. - **Consumption**: After the Dragon Boat Festival, there is no short - term holiday boost, and as temperatures rise, it enters the consumption off - season. The slaughter rate still has room to decline [40]. Profit and Cost - **Profit**: The average weekly profit of self - breeding and self - raising is 91.77 yuan/head, a decrease of 12.67 yuan/head from last week; the average weekly profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is 36.11 yuan/head, a decrease of 10.30 yuan/head from last week [37]. Market Information - **Supply**: The proportion of large - weight pig sources is relatively high, and second - fattening pigs are continuously being sold, so the market supply remains loose [40]. - **Policy**: The "Measures for the Administration of Licensing for the Production and Operation of Breeding Livestock and Poultry" will be implemented on July 1, 2025. There are also market rumors about guiding the pig industry, such as not increasing sows, reducing the weight of fattening pigs to 120KG, and not encouraging second - fattening [40]. - **Disease**: There are sporadic epidemic situations in some southern regions [40]. - **Market Sentiment**: Pig prices are fluctuating, showing a short - term stable and weak trend [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of the pig market continues to put pressure on pig prices, but the decline in the first quarter was weaker than expected. The second quarter will continue to focus on supply pressure, and there is a risk of compression in pig prices and breeding profits [3][4]. - Policy support for the corn market is nearing its end, and in the fourth quarter, it will be tested whether downstream consumption can support prices [5]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the global oilseed and fat market first rose and then fell, with the domestic market outperforming the international market. The second quarter will continue to be troubled by trade uncertainties, and attention should be paid to changes in biodiesel policies [7]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents First Part: Factors Affecting the Pig Market in the Second Quarter - Pig prices in the first quarter were stronger than expected, but supply pressure still exists. The terminal demand entered the off - season after the Spring Festival, and pig prices oscillated at a low level [3][4]. - Affected by the change in the mentality of the breeding side, the price of piglets first rose, then fell, and then rose again in the first quarter [3]. - The inventory of breeding sows decreased for two consecutive months. If this trend continues, the supply pressure in the second half of the year will be substantially improved [3]. - In the first quarter, the slaughter weight of pigs first decreased and then increased. The import volume of pork decreased as domestic pig prices were at a low level [3][4]. - The breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising decreased, while that of purchasing piglets increased. The slaughter opening rate was higher than the same period last year, but it was not driven by the increase in terminal demand [4]. - In the futures market, pig prices stabilized and rebounded in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the supply pressure of increased inventory will continue to affect spot pig prices and long - term trading sentiment [4]. Second Part: Analysis of Factors Affecting the Corn Market - From January to March, the prices of US wheat and corn first rose and then fell. Affected by weather, policy, and other factors, the CBOT grain futures prices declined jointly [5]. - The spot price of domestic corn rose with the futures price. By the end of March, the average domestic corn spot price increased by 163 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of January. After mid - March, due to multiple negative factors, the futures and spot prices of corn fell back [5]. - The 5 - month contract of corn oscillated repeatedly at the 2300 - yuan integer mark, and the market was worried about the lack of upward space in the future. Pay attention to the price performance of the 5 - month corn futures price at the previous support level of 2260 [6]. - The supply of new - season corn is expected to increase, and the inventory in the quarterly report at the end of March decreased by 2.4% compared with the same period. The ratio of US soybeans to corn is at a low level, which is conducive to the expansion of corn planting area [15][29][39]. - Affected by policies and other factors, the import of corn and its substitutes decreased in 2025, which increased the consumption of domestic corn. In the second quarter, the problem of limited supply of imported corn and substitutes will still appear periodically [52]. - In early April, the average price of wheat in the main producing areas decreased. The price of wheat followed the rise of corn in March and continued to oscillate weakly in April. The supply of wheat was relatively abundant, and the downstream demand was weak [55]. - In mid - April, the operating rate of the corn starch industry decreased, and the processing in Shandong was in a state of loss. The contradiction in the starch market was prominent, and the support from the demand side was insufficient [56]. Third Part: Analysis of Factors Affecting the Soybean Meal Market - The global oilseed and fat trade pattern has changed. Brazil supplies soybeans to China, the EU, etc., the US supplies soybeans to other regions, and Canadian rapeseed competes for the US soybean market [105]. - China's pig industry has strong demand for replenishment, which increases the demand for feed. The price is strong in stages, and the supply pressure is postponed [112]. - From January to February 2025, the feed output increased year - on - year, and the consumption of soybean meal also increased [116]. - The inventory of soybeans in China showed an inflection point in April, but the soybean procurement of oil mills from June to September was slow [119]. - The spot basis of soybean meal weakened, and the inter - month spread changed from backwardation to contango [121]. Fourth Part: Outlook for the Future Market - In the second quarter, pay attention to tariffs and weather for the US corn market. The policy support of CGC is nearing its end, and it will be tested whether downstream demand can accept high - priced raw materials [66][68]. - Russia's corn production has decreased, and the toxin content in domestic corn is high. The CBOT corn has emerged from the trough. In the future, Sino - US relations will determine the country of import and the rhythm [70]. - In the first quarter, the price of US corn rebounded to the profit range. The market expects an increase in the sown area of new - season corn, and the area will be confirmed in June [77]. - In the first quarter, the spot price of corn rebounded, and the futures price followed. The basis of the 3 - month and 5 - month contracts returned to normal. In the second quarter, the market will speculate on the sowing and cost changes of new - season grain [84]. - In 2024, the cost of corn planting decreased by 15 - 20%. The market expects the cost of corn planting in the new year to decrease by 100 - 150 yuan/ton [90]. - The by - products of starch rose and fell alternately. In 2024, the spread between starch and corn mainly widened. In 2025, pay attention to starch exports and the substitution of tapioca starch [97]. - In 2024, the supply of corn exceeded demand, and the price declined all the way. In 2025, it remains to be seen whether the strengthening of supply and demand can drive the price to rise continuously [102].