Report Title - The report is titled "Pigs: Supply Postponement Confirmed, Central Point Further Lowered" [1] Report Date - The report was released on October 20, 2025 [1] Core View - The supply of pigs is postponed, and the central point further moves down [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Fundamental Tracking Pig Price - Henan spot price is 11,380 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 100 yuan/ton [1] - Sichuan spot price is 10,900 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 100 yuan/ton [1] - Guangdong spot price is 11,460 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 0 yuan/ton [1] - The price of the Pig 2511 futures contract is 11,050 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 115 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [1] Market Information - Shennong registered 90 lots of warehouse receipts in Yunnan and Guangxi, and Guizhou Zhenfeng Fuyuan registered 21 lots of warehouse receipts [2] - Yuexiu and Yangxiang added new delivery warehouses [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is -2, indicating the most bearish view [3] Futures Research Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of Pig 2511 is 26,986 lots, a decrease of 6,503 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 35,844 lots, a decrease of 5,388 lots from the previous day [4] - The trading volume of Pig 2601 is 86,464 lots, an increase of 6,438 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 106,972 lots, an increase of 1,960 lots from the previous day [4] - The trading volume of Pig 2603 is 23,143 lots, an increase of 6,271 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 81,591 lots, an increase of 4,172 lots from the previous day [4] Basis and Spread - The basis of Pig 2511 is 11,670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 235 yuan/ton [4] - The basis of Pig 2601 is 11,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan/ton [4] - The spread between Pig 11 - 1 is 120 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton [4] - The spread between Pig 1 - 3 is 390 yuan/ton, an increase of 215 yuan/ton [4] - The spread between Pig 11 - 3 is -290 yuan/ton, an increase of 335 yuan/ton [4] - The spread between Pig 1 - 3 (another data) is 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 360 yuan/ton [4] - The spread between Pig 11 - 3 (another data) is -620 yuan/ton [4]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The expectation for the pig industry has weakened [1] - The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [4] - At the end of the month and the beginning of the new month, large - scale pig - farming groups significantly reduced their supply, and the spot price realized the market's rebound expectation. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale groups will increase in August, and small - scale farmers are forced to hold back pigs. There is still supply pressure in September. The production capacity cycle and inventory cycle will resonate from September to October, and it is advisable to enter the 11 - 1 inverse spread. The purchasing sentiment for piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of slaughter from March to May. Attention should be paid to the downward - moving driver of the far - end central price, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2601 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,180 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 13,850 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 200 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 15,840 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 300 yuan/ton [3] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the pig 2511 contract is 13,595 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the price of the pig 2601 contract is 13,860 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 20 yuan/ton; the price of the pig 2603 contract is 13,095 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 15 yuan/ton [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For the pig 2511 contract, the trading volume is 26,042 lots, a decrease of 4,481 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 73,388 lots, a decrease of 2,076 lots from the previous day. For the pig 2601 contract, the trading volume is 11,472 lots, a decrease of 2,658 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 48,756 lots, an increase of 278 lots from the previous day. For the pig 2603 contract, the trading volume is 2,845 lots, a decrease of 1,349 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 32,584 lots, an increase of 373 lots from the previous day [3] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the pig 2511 contract is 585 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the basis of the pig 2601 contract is 320 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 70 yuan/ton; the basis of the pig 2603 contract is 1,085 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The 11 - 1 spread of pigs is - 265 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the 1 - 3 spread of pigs is 765 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 35 yuan/ton [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The sentiment in the pig industry is weak, and there may be a phased inventory reduction. The current situation shows that the price spreads between fat pigs in the north and south are inverted, the sale of group piglets has decreased, and the recent pressure of fat pig sales initially confirms inventory accumulation. The official number of piglets confirms the inventory, and the market expectation has weakened. There is a possibility of phased weight reduction due to trade circulation issues, and the positive spread structure may switch. The January contract is affected by liquidity, and although it is a peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, the increase in positions is limited, causing the far - month spread to deviate from the seasonal reasonable spread at present. Wait for the opportunity of liquidity shift, and continuously layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread in the medium - and long - term, paying attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The Henan spot price is 14,600 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 14,250 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 15,290 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton year - on - year. The futures prices of pig2507, pig2509, and pig2511 are 13,285 yuan/ton, 13,650 yuan/ton, and 13,335 yuan/ton respectively, down 70 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton year - on - year [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of pig2507 is 5,518 lots, an increase of 92 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 27,386 lots, an increase of 356 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of pig2509 is 15,772 lots, an increase of 1,459 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 78,562 lots, a decrease of 118 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of pig2511 is 2,948 lots, a decrease of 228 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 32,576 lots, an increase of 397 lots from the previous day [1] - **Price Spread**: The basis of pig2507, pig2509, and pig2511 are 1,315 yuan/ton, 950 yuan/ton, and 1,265 yuan/ton respectively, down 80 yuan/ton, 110 yuan/ton, and 125 yuan/ton year - on - year. The 7 - 9 spread of pigs is - 365 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton year - on - year, and the 9 - 11 spread is 315 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton year - on - year [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market sentiment. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), with classifications including weak, weak - biased, neutral, strong - biased, and strong [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The current situation shows that the price spreads between fat pigs in the north and south are inverted, the sale of group piglets has decreased, and the recent pressure of fat pig sales initially confirms inventory accumulation. The official number of piglets confirms the inventory, and the market expectation has weakened. There is a possibility of phased weight reduction due to trade circulation issues, and the positive spread structure may switch. The January contract is affected by liquidity, and although it is a peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, the increase in positions is limited, causing the far - month spread to deviate from the seasonal reasonable spread at present. Wait for the opportunity of liquidity shift, and continuously layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread in the medium - and long - term, paying attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term expectation for the pig industry has weakened. The current north - south fat pig price spread is inverted, the sale of group piglets has decreased, and the pen pressure in May has slightly increased. The continuous price exceeding expectations has led to continued inventory accumulation, and the recent pressure of fat pig sales has initially confirmed the inventory accumulation. The official number of piglets confirms the stock, and the far - end expectation has weakened. For the 1 - month contract, due to liquidity issues, although it is a peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, the increase in positions is limited, causing the far - month price spread to deviate from the seasonal reasonable spread at present. One should wait for the opportunity of liquidity transfer, and continuously layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread in the medium - to - long - term, paying attention to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,850 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 14,350 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 15,190 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year [3]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of pig 2507 is 13,405 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton year - on - year; the price of pig 2509 is 13,660 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton year - on - year; the price of pig 2511 is 13,420 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of pig 2507 is 5,531 lots, down 4,458 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 27,679 lots, up 95 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of pig 2509 is 28,345 lots, down 12,012 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 79,274 lots, up 1,713 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of pig 2511 is 5,399 lots, down 1,173 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 31,145 lots, up 868 lots from the previous day [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of pig 2507 is 1,445 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of pig 2509 is 1,190 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of pig 2511 is 1,430 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 7 - 9 spread of pigs is - 255 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 9 - 11 spread of pigs is 240 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with the range of values for trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. The classification of strength levels is as follows: weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [4]. 3.3 Market Logic - Currently, the north - south fat pig price spread is inverted, the sale of group piglets has decreased, and the pen pressure in May has slightly increased. The continuous price exceeding expectations has led to continued inventory accumulation, and the recent pressure of fat pig sales has initially confirmed the inventory accumulation. The official number of piglets confirms the stock, and the far - end expectation has weakened. The 1 - month contract is affected by liquidity. Although it is a peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, the increase in positions is limited, causing the far - month price spread to deviate from the seasonal reasonable spread at present. One should wait for the opportunity of liquidity transfer, and continuously layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread in the medium - to - long - term, paying attention to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5].