Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The end - of - month and beginning - of - month significant reduction in supply by large - scale pig farms led to a rebound in spot prices as expected. However, the average weight of pigs is increasing again, the price difference between fat and standard pigs is weakening, and the overall supply increase in September is large. From September to October, the production capacity cycle and inventory cycle resonate, and market pressure is gradually emerging. It is expected that the spot price center will further decline, and the national average price will hit new lows. The enthusiasm for purchasing piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of pigs to be slaughtered in March - May. Attention should be paid to the driving force of the downward shift of the price center in March and May. There is an expectation of further policy regulation for the July contract, which is mainly strong in the short - term. Stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2511 contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,500 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The spot price in Henan is 13,230 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; in Sichuan, it is 12,950 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year; in Guangdong, it is 14,160 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the Live Pig 2511 contract is 13,275 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Live Pig 2601 contract is 13,745 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Live Pig 2603 contract is 13,045 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Live Pig 2511 contract is 38,413 lots, an increase of 8,046 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 81,062 lots, an increase of 2,009 lots from the previous day; the Live Pig 2601 contract has a trading volume of 14,187 lots, an increase of 1,557 lots, and an open interest of 54,865 lots, an increase of 765 lots; the Live Pig 2603 contract has a trading volume of 3,991 lots, a decrease of 516 lots, and an open interest of 38,157 lots, an increase of 915 lots [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the Live Pig 2511 contract is - 45 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the Live Pig 2601 contract is - 515 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the Live Pig 2603 contract is 185 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton year - on - year; the spread between the 11th and 1st contracts is - 470 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; the spread between the 1st and 3rd contracts is 700 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, with the range of values being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3] 3. Market Logic - As described in the core view, including factors such as supply changes, price trends, and policy expectations [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - At the end of the month and the beginning of the month, large - scale pig - raising groups significantly reduced supply, and the spot price rebounded as expected. However, the average weight of pigs increased again, the price difference between fat and lean pigs weakened, and the overall supply in September increased significantly. From September to October, the production capacity cycle and inventory cycle resonated, and market pressure gradually emerged. It is expected that the spot price center will further decline, and the national average price will hit new lows. The enthusiasm for purchasing piglets declined, and the price decline accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of pigs to be slaughtered in March - May. Attention should be paid to the downward - driving force of the price center in March and May. There is an expectation of further policy regulation for the July contract, which is mainly strong in the short - term. Stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2511 contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,500 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The price of Henan's live - pig spot is 13,480 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; Sichuan's is 13,400 yuan/ton, with no year - on - year change; Guangdong's is 14,340 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan/ton. The price of the live - pig 2511 futures is 13,255 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the live - pig 2601 is 13,690 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the live - pig 2603 is 13,060 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 45 yuan/ton [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the live - pig 2511 futures is 30,367 lots, an increase of 9,160 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 79,053 lots, an increase of 3,100 lots from the previous day; the live - pig 2601 has a trading volume of 12,630 lots, an increase of 3,561 lots from the previous day, and an open interest of 54,100 lots, an increase of 1,440 lots from the previous day; the live - pig 2603 has a trading volume of 4,507 lots, an increase of 1,694 lots from the previous day, and an open interest of 37,242 lots, an increase of 577 lots from the previous day [1] - **Price Spread**: The basis of the live - pig 2511 is 225 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 15 yuan/ton; the live - pig 2601 is - 210 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the live - pig 2603 is 420 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 95 yuan/ton. The spread between the live - pig 11 - 1 is - 435 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the spread between the live - pig 1 - 3 is 630 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 85 yuan/ton [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a value range of [- 2,2] for integers. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [2] Market Logic - At the end of the month and the beginning of the month, large - scale pig - raising groups significantly reduced supply, and the spot price rebounded as expected. However, the average weight of pigs increased again, the price difference between fat and lean pigs weakened, and the overall supply in September increased significantly. From September to October, the production capacity cycle and inventory cycle resonated, and market pressure gradually emerged. It is expected that the spot price center will further decline, and the national average price will hit new lows. The enthusiasm for purchasing piglets declined, and the price decline accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of pigs to be slaughtered in March - May. Attention should be paid to the downward - driving force of the price center in March and May. There is an expectation of further policy regulation for the July contract, which is mainly strong in the short - term. Stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2511 contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,500 yuan/ton [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - At the end of the month and the beginning of the next, large - scale group companies significantly reduced supply, and the spot price fulfilled the market's rebound expectation. However, the average weight of pigs increased again, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs weakened. The overall supply increment in September was relatively large. From September to October, the production capacity cycle and inventory cycle resonated, and market pressure gradually emerged. It is expected that the spot price center will further decline. The purchasing sentiment for piglets decreased, and the price decline accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of slaughter in March - May. Attention should be paid to the downward - driving force of the price center in March and May. There is an expectation of further policy regulation for the July contract, and it is mainly strong in the short - term. Pay attention to setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. The short - term support level for the LH2511 contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,500 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price was 13,580 yuan/ton, Sichuan's was 13,400 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's was 14,240 yuan/ton, all with a year - on - year change of 0 [2] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of contracts such as生猪2511,生猪2601, and生猪2603 were 13,315 yuan/ton, 13,740 yuan/ton, and 13,015 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year increases of 85, 85, and 65 respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For example, the trading volume of生猪2511 was 32,626 lots, an increase of 6,090 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 75,719 lots, a decrease of 2,241 lots from the previous day [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of生猪2511 was 265 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 85; the 11 - 1 spread of live pigs was - 425 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year change of 0; the 1 - 3 spread was 725 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 20 [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity was 0, with the value range being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. The strength levels were classified as weak, moderately weak, neutral, moderately strong, and strong, where - 2 indicated the most bearish and 2 indicated the most bullish [3]

2025 年 9 月 3 日 生猪：预期转弱 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 | 格 | 同 | 比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | | 14180 | -50 | | | 价 格 | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | | 13850 | 200 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | | 15840 | 300 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 | 格 | 同 | 比 | | | 生猪2511 | 元/吨 | | 13595 | -30 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | | 13860 | 20 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | | 13095 | -15 | | | | | ...

| 价 格 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 14230 | | 450 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 13650 | | 400 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 15540 | | 800 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | | 生猪2511 | 元/吨 | 13625 | | 70 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 13840 | | -30 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 13110 | | -25 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交量 | 较前日 | 持仓量 | 较昨日 | | | 生猪2511 | 手 | 30523 | 7668 | 75464 | 1828 | | | 生猪2601 | 手 | 14130 | 1745 | 48478 | 165 | | | 生猪2603 | 手 | 4194 | 1045 | 32211 | 439 比 | | 价 差 | | 单 位 ...