Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The probability of concentrated pressure release in the spot market before the double festivals increases, and the spot price center will further decline. The near - month contracts face a situation of high production capacity, high inventory, and high premium. The 11 - month contract's position reaches a new high, and the market game enters an accelerated stage. The price center of the March and May contracts may decline, and the spread structure of the July contract maintains a reverse spread. The short - term support level of the LH2511 contract is 12,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Pig Fundamental Data - **Price**: The prices of Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong spot are 12,930 yuan/ton, 12,450 yuan/ton, and 13,460 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of futures contracts such as生猪2511,生猪2601, and生猪2603 are 12,825 yuan/ton, 13,350 yuan/ton, and 12,840 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of生猪2511,生猪2601, and生猪2603 are 38,008 lots, 18,413 lots, and 5,682 lots respectively, with changes of - 19,098 lots, - 6,891 lots, and - 4,080 lots compared to the previous day. The open interests are 96,751 lots, 66,786 lots, and 44,955 lots respectively, with changes of - 2,238 lots, 120 lots, and 1,963 lots compared to the previous day [2] - **Spread**: The basis of生猪2511,生猪2601, and生猪2603 are 105 yuan/ton, - 420 yuan/ton, and 90 yuan/ton respectively. The spreads of生猪11 - 1 and生猪1 - 3 are - 525 yuan/ton and 510 yuan/ton respectively [2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [3] 3. Market Logic - Group significantly reduces supply, but the weight increases again, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs weakens, indicating a serious passive inventory accumulation. The overall supply in September increases significantly. The production capacity cycle and inventory cycle resonate from September to October. The near - month contracts face high production capacity, high inventory, and high premium. The purchase sentiment of piglets declines, and the price drops accelerate, corresponding to a decline in the cost of slaughter in March - May [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is -2, indicating the most bearish view, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [3]. 2. Core View - The market is pessimistic about the future of the pig industry. The spot price center will further decline, and the near - month contracts face high - capacity, high - inventory, and high - premium situations. The 11 - month contract is expected to see accelerated market competition. The 3 - month and 5 - month contracts may have a downward - moving center, and the 7 - month contract is expected to be strong in the short - term with a need to pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 12,930 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 12,550 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 13,560 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton year - on - year [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the pig 2511 contract is 12,830 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton year - on - year; the pig 2601 contract is 13,330 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton year - on - year; the pig 2603 contract is 12,855 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the pig 2511 contract is 57,106 lots, down 2,628 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 98,989 lots, up 4,913 lots; the pig 2601 contract has a trading volume of 25,304 lots, down 382 lots, and an open interest of 66,666 lots, up 4,610 lots; the pig 2603 contract has a trading volume of 9,762 lots, up 4,096 lots, and an open interest of 42,992 lots, up 3,613 lots [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the pig 2511 contract is 100 yuan/ton, compared to 120 yuan/ton previously; the pig 2601 contract basis is - 400 yuan/ton, compared to 130 yuan/ton previously; the pig 2603 contract basis is 75 yuan/ton, compared to 100 yuan/ton previously. The 11 - 1 spread is - 500 yuan/ton, compared to 10 yuan/ton previously, and the 1 - 3 spread is 475 yuan/ton, compared to - 30 yuan/ton previously [2]. 3.2 Market Logic - Group companies have significantly reduced supply, but the average weight has increased again, and the price spread between fat and lean pigs has weakened, indicating a serious passive inventory build - up. The overall supply in September has increased significantly, and the market will face pressure due to the resonance of the production capacity cycle and inventory cycle from September to October. The short - term support level for the LH2511 contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,500 yuan/ton [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The end - of - month and beginning - of - month significant reduction in supply by large - scale pig farms led to a rebound in spot prices as expected. However, the average weight of pigs is increasing again, the price difference between fat and standard pigs is weakening, and the overall supply increase in September is large. From September to October, the production capacity cycle and inventory cycle resonate, and market pressure is gradually emerging. It is expected that the spot price center will further decline, and the national average price will hit new lows. The enthusiasm for purchasing piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of pigs to be slaughtered in March - May. Attention should be paid to the driving force of the downward shift of the price center in March and May. There is an expectation of further policy regulation for the July contract, which is mainly strong in the short - term. Stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2511 contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,500 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The spot price in Henan is 13,230 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; in Sichuan, it is 12,950 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year; in Guangdong, it is 14,160 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the Live Pig 2511 contract is 13,275 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Live Pig 2601 contract is 13,745 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Live Pig 2603 contract is 13,045 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Live Pig 2511 contract is 38,413 lots, an increase of 8,046 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 81,062 lots, an increase of 2,009 lots from the previous day; the Live Pig 2601 contract has a trading volume of 14,187 lots, an increase of 1,557 lots, and an open interest of 54,865 lots, an increase of 765 lots; the Live Pig 2603 contract has a trading volume of 3,991 lots, a decrease of 516 lots, and an open interest of 38,157 lots, an increase of 915 lots [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the Live Pig 2511 contract is - 45 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the Live Pig 2601 contract is - 515 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the Live Pig 2603 contract is 185 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton year - on - year; the spread between the 11th and 1st contracts is - 470 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; the spread between the 1st and 3rd contracts is 700 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, with the range of values being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3] 3. Market Logic - As described in the core view, including factors such as supply changes, price trends, and policy expectations [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - At the end of the month and the beginning of the month, large - scale pig - raising groups significantly reduced supply, and the spot price rebounded as expected. However, the average weight of pigs increased again, the price difference between fat and lean pigs weakened, and the overall supply in September increased significantly. From September to October, the production capacity cycle and inventory cycle resonated, and market pressure gradually emerged. It is expected that the spot price center will further decline, and the national average price will hit new lows. The enthusiasm for purchasing piglets declined, and the price decline accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of pigs to be slaughtered in March - May. Attention should be paid to the downward - driving force of the price center in March and May. There is an expectation of further policy regulation for the July contract, which is mainly strong in the short - term. Stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2511 contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,500 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The price of Henan's live - pig spot is 13,480 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; Sichuan's is 13,400 yuan/ton, with no year - on - year change; Guangdong's is 14,340 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan/ton. The price of the live - pig 2511 futures is 13,255 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the live - pig 2601 is 13,690 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the live - pig 2603 is 13,060 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 45 yuan/ton [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the live - pig 2511 futures is 30,367 lots, an increase of 9,160 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 79,053 lots, an increase of 3,100 lots from the previous day; the live - pig 2601 has a trading volume of 12,630 lots, an increase of 3,561 lots from the previous day, and an open interest of 54,100 lots, an increase of 1,440 lots from the previous day; the live - pig 2603 has a trading volume of 4,507 lots, an increase of 1,694 lots from the previous day, and an open interest of 37,242 lots, an increase of 577 lots from the previous day [1] - **Price Spread**: The basis of the live - pig 2511 is 225 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 15 yuan/ton; the live - pig 2601 is - 210 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the live - pig 2603 is 420 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 95 yuan/ton. The spread between the live - pig 11 - 1 is - 435 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the spread between the live - pig 1 - 3 is 630 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 85 yuan/ton [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a value range of [- 2,2] for integers. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [2] Market Logic - At the end of the month and the beginning of the month, large - scale pig - raising groups significantly reduced supply, and the spot price rebounded as expected. However, the average weight of pigs increased again, the price difference between fat and lean pigs weakened, and the overall supply in September increased significantly. From September to October, the production capacity cycle and inventory cycle resonated, and market pressure gradually emerged. It is expected that the spot price center will further decline, and the national average price will hit new lows. The enthusiasm for purchasing piglets declined, and the price decline accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of pigs to be slaughtered in March - May. Attention should be paid to the downward - driving force of the price center in March and May. There is an expectation of further policy regulation for the July contract, which is mainly strong in the short - term. Stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2511 contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,500 yuan/ton [3]