Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the equity market is showing signs of upward momentum, with the total A-share index rising by 0.60% and trading volume increasing by 467 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1][2] - The report highlights that the market is attempting to establish new narratives, which historically accompany successful breakthroughs of previous highs at year-end [1][2] - The report suggests that the index is approaching previous highs, with the total A-share index breaking through 6400 points, nearing the highs of October and November [2] Group 2 - The report identifies strong performance in specific sectors, particularly defense, military, and communication industries, which have successfully broken through previous high points, indicating a positive market sentiment towards these sectors [2] - The commercial aerospace sector has led the market with a cumulative increase of 31.12% since November 24, and its trading volume has reached a historical high of 6.05% of total A-share trading volume [3] - The bond market is experiencing a mixed performance, with short-term bonds showing a downward trend while long-term bonds are under pressure due to rising yields influenced by equity market movements [4][5] Group 3 - The report notes that the commodity market has shifted from a broad rally to a more differentiated performance, with precious metals experiencing a decline while industrial metals remain resilient [6] - The report emphasizes that the long-term bullish logic for precious metals remains intact, but short-term volatility may arise due to profit-taking after significant price increases [7] - The report discusses the dynamics in the polysilicon industry, where price increases are being driven by supply-side adjustments, despite ongoing supply-demand imbalances [7]

年度报告-玉米 渠道库存虚实转，犹看政策定风波 [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] 报告日期： ★[Ta渠ble道_S持um货m意ar愿y]或迎来周期拐点 农 产 19/20 年至今，玉米价格震荡下行，除了产需缺口缩减、成本下移之 外，渠道持货意愿逐渐走低也是推波助澜的重要因素，同时也造就 了近三年玉米价格高度一致的季节性特征。但 25Q4 的玉米却一反常 态，11 月的涨速及涨幅均大超市场预期。2025 年，市场的谨慎程度 更甚以往，渠道库存的压缩程度已至极点。短周期看，25 年 11 月价 格的反季节走强，是渠道库存压缩至极点后被动反弹所带来的一次 纠偏；而长周期看，当下的市场情绪和渠道囤库需求，或许都来到 了向上转折的节点。一是由于 24/25 年贸易商囤货的赚钱效应，二 是由于 25Q4 期现双边做空后亏损的教训，三是 25/26 年度大概率缺 乏对新作一致看空预期的形成基础。（26/27 年成本预计随地租抬升， 产量虽预增，但供需未必转松，小麦托市价或有继续上调的可能。） 品 ★ 政策或为 25/26 年平衡表的关键变量，目前不确定性较强 基层上量大与现实库存持续偏紧的矛盾，表明新作的增产量恐怕明 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The Chinese Yuan (RMB) has shown a continuous appreciation against the US Dollar, with the central parity rate reported at 7.0753, marking a rise of 20 basis points from the previous day, indicating positive market supply and demand dynamics [1] - The onshore RMB closed at 7.0638, appreciating by 55 points, with a trading volume exceeding 28.7 billion USD, reflecting increased market activity [1] - The offshore RMB also appreciated, closing at 7.0622, with the spread between onshore and offshore rates narrowing to 16 basis points, reducing opportunities for cross-border arbitrage [1] Group 2: Yearly Review - The RMB exchange rate experienced significant fluctuations in 2025, initially declining to 7.35 due to escalated US tariff strategies, but began to appreciate from October, with a cumulative increase of over 3.5% in the second half of the year [3] - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index reached 99.2, reflecting a 1.8% increase from the beginning of the year, indicating improved stability against a basket of currencies [3] Group 3: Driving Factors - Three main factors contribute to the strong performance of the RMB: 1. Decreasing inflation in the US, with a high probability (87.6%) of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in December, which could reduce depreciation pressure on the RMB [4] 2. Improvement in domestic economic fundamentals, with a narrowing decline in PPI, a return of manufacturing PMI to expansion, and a 3.8% month-on-month increase in exports [4] 3. Enhanced policy tools, including improved counter-cyclical adjustments and expanded pilot programs for cross-border trade settlements in local currencies [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The RMB exchange rate is expected to maintain a strong oscillation towards the end of the year, with a potential fluctuation center moving to between 7.05 and 7.10 [8] - The long-term outlook for the RMB remains optimistic, contingent on the effectiveness of domestic growth strategies and the pace of US monetary policy adjustments [8]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月03日 (原油) API 数据显示美国成品油及原油库存增加。外盘油价周二下跌逾1%，市场在俄乌冲突局势与供应过 剩之间，俄罗斯里海管道联盟表示自11月中旬起进行维护的SPM-3预计将在未来七天内恢复运行， 恢复进度快于原计划。消息面对油价更多是阶段性提振，基本面供需盈余扩大仍决定油价中枢存下 行压力。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属震荡，盘中波动较大。白银刷新历史新高后涨势趋缓,黄金突破前高阳力前贵金属整体 仍以震荡对待谨慎追高。铂年内供应存缺口,把供需预期紧平衡,走势上铂强于肥。关注今晚美国 ADP就业和ISM非制造业PMI数据。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜震荡收跌，逐渐靠向短期均线，LME现货升水持平68美元。沪铜在前期成交密集区8.83- 8.85万有一定韧性。国内现铜昨报88660元，上海铜升水扩至120元，洋山铜溢价扩至38美元。多单 依托MA5日均线持有。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝高位震荡。过去两日主要地区铝锭社库连续两日小幅增加，现货贴水略有扩大。铝市基本 面矛盾有限，季节性库存表现中性，需求缺少亮点但具备韧性。沪铝震荡测试前高22000 ...

华泰期货研究 2026 年期货市场展望 回顾过去十年的煤炭行情，不难发现煤炭价格波动总是围绕持续增长的消费和阶段性供给错配之间的矛盾而展开的，其中政策变化 起到了关键作用。2025 年上半年煤炭价格大幅下跌，直至反内卷政策和超产核查出台，煤炭产量受到控制，同时伴随价格回落， 进口量大幅缩减，煤炭供需矛盾有所缓解，煤炭价格才得以重新反弹...... 调节供需动态平衡，维持煤价合理区间 王海涛 从业资格号:F3057899 投资咨询号:Z0016256 本期分析研究员 邝志鹏 从业资格号:F3057899 投资咨询号:Z0016256 钢铁煤炭与建材研究 Research on Ferrous and Construction Commodities 余彩云 从业资格号:F03096767 投资咨询号:Z0020310 从业资格号:F3054449 投资咨询号:Z0016137 华泰期货研究院钢铁煤炭与建材研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 刘国梁 从业资格号:F03108558 投资咨询号:Z0021505 邢亚文 期货研究报告 | 动力煤年报 2025-11-30 调节供需动态平衡，维持煤价合理区间 策略 ...

品 7 2025 年 11 月 25 日 | 杨鉉汉 | | 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021541 yanghonghan@gtht.com | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | 尿素基本面数据 | | | | | | 项目 | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | | 收盘价(元/吨) | 1.638 | 1.654 | -16 | | | 结算价(元/吨) | 1, 637 | 1, 657 | -20 | | 尿素主力 期货市场 | 成交量(手) | 186, 71980 | 144. 804 | 41915 | | (01合约) | 持仓量(手) | 232. 315 | 243, 246 | -10931 | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 7.570 | 7.183 | 387 | | | 成交额(万元) | 611.151 | 480. 013 | 131138 | | | 山东地区基差 | 2 | -4 | 6 | | 基差 | 丰喜-盘面(运费约100元/吨) | -128 | -144 | ...

未来三年的中国楼市，将是一场"冰与火"的分化大戏。一边是三四线城市在人口外流、产业萎缩中持续阴跌，甚至跌回十年前水平；另一边是一线城市核心 区豪宅"慢涨"，强二线城市"产业+人口"双轮驱动下逆势上扬。这场变局背后，是人口流动、产业升级和政策调控的深度博弈。购房者、投资者该如何在这 场浪潮中找准方向？答案就藏在城市的"经济基因"里。 2025-2027：全国房价"普跌"中的结构性分化 三四线城市的困境，本质是"人口-产业-房价"的恶性循环。随着年轻人口向一二线城市迁移，这些城市购房需求持续萎缩，而前期过度开发的住宅库存却居 高不下。数据显示，部分三四线城市空置率已超25%，远超国际警戒线。更严峻的是，资源枯竭型城市（如鹤岗、双鸭山）因传统产业衰退，财政收入锐 减，城市更新乏力，房价可能率先跌回2015年水平。不过，环都市圈卫星城因承接一线城市外溢需求，叠加轨道交通（如地铁、城际铁路）贯通，可能成为 三四线城市中的"例外"，吸引部分通勤人群和养老群体，带动房价结构性补涨。 总结：楼市进入"精准投资"时代，选对城市比赌涨跌更重要 未来三年的楼市，早已不是"闭眼买都能赚"的时代。一线城市的核心资产仍是"硬通货"，但需 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term urea is expected to move in a volatile manner. The upward trend of spot prices is expected to slow down, and incremental warehouse receipts will gradually put pressure on the upside of futures prices. However, policy support provides a floor for prices [2][3]. - The domestic fundamental pressure on urea is relatively high, but policy regulation weakens the downward - driving force. In November, high production and supply will put pressure on prices, but export policies relieve the pressure [3]. - In the fourth quarter, the domestic market is a "buyer's market". The 01 contract has a strong fundamental resistance level at 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton and a support level at 1550 - 1560 yuan/ton [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking Futures Market - Urea's main contract: The closing price was 1,655 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,652 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the trading volume was 231,417 lots, an increase of 89,098 lots; the open interest of the 01 contract was 256,120 lots, an increase of 2,098 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 6,958 tons, an increase of 146 tons; the trading volume was 764.753 million yuan, an increase of 295.761 million yuan [1]. - Basis: The Shandong regional basis was - 55, down 25; the Fengxi - to - futures basis was - 155, down 15; the Dongguang - to - futures basis (the cheapest deliverable) was - 45, down 15 [1]. - Spread: The UR01 - UR05 spread was - 73, up 4 [1]. Spot Market - Urea factory prices: Henan Xinlianxin was 1,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yankuang Xinjiang was 1,335 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shandong Ruixing was 1,580 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; Shanxi Fengxi was 1,480 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Hebei Dongguang was 1,610 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jiangsu Linggu was 1,670 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - Trader prices: The Shandong region was 1,600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the Shanxi region was 1,480 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [1]. - Supply - side indicators: The operating rate was 84.07%, down 0.34 percentage points; the daily output was 196,680 tons, down 800 tons [1]. Industry News - On November 12, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4836 million tons, a decrease of 94,500 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 5.99%. The decline was mainly due to the new export policy, but new orders slowed down after the price increase, and some enterprises' inventory first decreased and then increased [2]. - Provinces with decreased enterprise inventory: Anhui, Hainan, Henan, Heilongjiang, Hubei, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Shanxi, Xinjiang, Yunnan, Chongqing. Provinces with increased enterprise inventory: Hebei, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Liaoning, Qinghai, Shaanxi [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral view [3].

Core Insights - The dual holiday period (October 1-8) saw a notable increase in customer visits and transaction volumes in the Shanghai real estate market, despite a general decline in customer footfall due to travel [1][2][3] - New promotional strategies by various developers, including "11 project linkage" by Poly Developments, successfully attracted buyers, resulting in significant sales figures [2][3] - The second-hand housing market in Shanghai experienced a substantial decline in transaction volume compared to the previous year, with a drop of over 63% during the holiday period [4][5] New Housing Market - Multiple new projects launched promotional activities during the holiday, combining incentives and interactive events to attract buyers, leading to increased customer engagement and sales [2][3] - Poly Developments reported over 4,000 customer visits and a transaction volume of 1.28 billion yuan during the holiday [2] - The "six project linkage" strategy by China National Trade also contributed to increased customer traffic and sales [2] Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market in Shanghai remained sluggish, with only 780 transactions recorded during the holiday, a significant drop from 2,133 transactions in the same period last year [4][5] - The average daily transaction volume for second-hand homes was only 111 units, indicating a prolonged negotiation period between buyers and sellers [4][5] - Despite the decline, the overall resilience of the second-hand market was noted, with a year-to-date increase in transactions compared to the previous year [5] Market Outlook - The real estate market in Shanghai is expected to remain cautiously optimistic for the fourth quarter, driven by the recovery in the new housing market and upcoming supply plans [6][8] - Recent policy changes, including the "Six Policies" aimed at addressing structural issues in the market, have positively impacted sales and customer visits [6][7] - Analysts suggest that while the market is stabilizing, further policy adjustments may not be necessary, with expectations leaning towards a potential reduction in LPR (Loan Prime Rate) [9]

Core Insights - The Chinese herbal medicine market is experiencing a significant price decline due to increased supply and weakened demand, marking a systemic adjustment across the industry [1][3][4] Price Trends - The average trading price of six major herbal medicines in Dingxi, Gansu Province, has dropped to 61.54 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 1.07% from the previous week, continuing a six-week downward trend [2] - The price index for Sanqi has fallen to 135.94 points, down 30.9% from 196.77 points at the beginning of the year [2] - The overall Chinese herbal medicine price index has decreased by 28.5% since July 2024, reaching a new low of 1605.27 points [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The oversupply in the market is attributed to a significant increase in planting area driven by previous high prices, with an expected total output of 5.8 million tons against a demand of 5 million tons, resulting in a surplus rate of 16% [4][5] - The demand side is weak, with traditional Chinese medicine enterprises facing pressure from national procurement policies, leading to a conservative purchasing strategy [5] Market Behavior - Speculative trading in niche herbal products has led to drastic price corrections, with some products like Cat's Claw dropping over 90% from their peak prices [5] - Regulatory interventions and the implementation of quality management standards are reshaping the market, pushing non-compliant products out of formal channels [6][7] Future Outlook - The current price decline is expected to persist until at least the end of 2025, with further increases in low-priced varieties anticipated as production peaks [7]