未来三年的中国楼市，将是一场"冰与火"的分化大戏。一边是三四线城市在人口外流、产业萎缩中持续阴跌，甚至跌回十年前水平；另一边是一线城市核心 区豪宅"慢涨"，强二线城市"产业+人口"双轮驱动下逆势上扬。这场变局背后，是人口流动、产业升级和政策调控的深度博弈。购房者、投资者该如何在这 场浪潮中找准方向？答案就藏在城市的"经济基因"里。 2025-2027：全国房价"普跌"中的结构性分化 三四线城市的困境，本质是"人口-产业-房价"的恶性循环。随着年轻人口向一二线城市迁移，这些城市购房需求持续萎缩，而前期过度开发的住宅库存却居 高不下。数据显示，部分三四线城市空置率已超25%，远超国际警戒线。更严峻的是，资源枯竭型城市（如鹤岗、双鸭山）因传统产业衰退，财政收入锐 减，城市更新乏力，房价可能率先跌回2015年水平。不过，环都市圈卫星城因承接一线城市外溢需求，叠加轨道交通（如地铁、城际铁路）贯通，可能成为 三四线城市中的"例外"，吸引部分通勤人群和养老群体，带动房价结构性补涨。 总结：楼市进入"精准投资"时代，选对城市比赌涨跌更重要 未来三年的楼市，早已不是"闭眼买都能赚"的时代。一线城市的核心资产仍是"硬通货"，但需 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term urea is expected to move in a volatile manner. The upward trend of spot prices is expected to slow down, and incremental warehouse receipts will gradually put pressure on the upside of futures prices. However, policy support provides a floor for prices [2][3]. - The domestic fundamental pressure on urea is relatively high, but policy regulation weakens the downward - driving force. In November, high production and supply will put pressure on prices, but export policies relieve the pressure [3]. - In the fourth quarter, the domestic market is a "buyer's market". The 01 contract has a strong fundamental resistance level at 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton and a support level at 1550 - 1560 yuan/ton [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking Futures Market - Urea's main contract: The closing price was 1,655 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,652 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the trading volume was 231,417 lots, an increase of 89,098 lots; the open interest of the 01 contract was 256,120 lots, an increase of 2,098 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 6,958 tons, an increase of 146 tons; the trading volume was 764.753 million yuan, an increase of 295.761 million yuan [1]. - Basis: The Shandong regional basis was - 55, down 25; the Fengxi - to - futures basis was - 155, down 15; the Dongguang - to - futures basis (the cheapest deliverable) was - 45, down 15 [1]. - Spread: The UR01 - UR05 spread was - 73, up 4 [1]. Spot Market - Urea factory prices: Henan Xinlianxin was 1,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yankuang Xinjiang was 1,335 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shandong Ruixing was 1,580 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; Shanxi Fengxi was 1,480 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Hebei Dongguang was 1,610 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jiangsu Linggu was 1,670 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - Trader prices: The Shandong region was 1,600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the Shanxi region was 1,480 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [1]. - Supply - side indicators: The operating rate was 84.07%, down 0.34 percentage points; the daily output was 196,680 tons, down 800 tons [1]. Industry News - On November 12, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4836 million tons, a decrease of 94,500 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 5.99%. The decline was mainly due to the new export policy, but new orders slowed down after the price increase, and some enterprises' inventory first decreased and then increased [2]. - Provinces with decreased enterprise inventory: Anhui, Hainan, Henan, Heilongjiang, Hubei, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Shanxi, Xinjiang, Yunnan, Chongqing. Provinces with increased enterprise inventory: Hebei, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Liaoning, Qinghai, Shaanxi [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral view [3].

Core Insights - The dual holiday period (October 1-8) saw a notable increase in customer visits and transaction volumes in the Shanghai real estate market, despite a general decline in customer footfall due to travel [1][2][3] - New promotional strategies by various developers, including "11 project linkage" by Poly Developments, successfully attracted buyers, resulting in significant sales figures [2][3] - The second-hand housing market in Shanghai experienced a substantial decline in transaction volume compared to the previous year, with a drop of over 63% during the holiday period [4][5] New Housing Market - Multiple new projects launched promotional activities during the holiday, combining incentives and interactive events to attract buyers, leading to increased customer engagement and sales [2][3] - Poly Developments reported over 4,000 customer visits and a transaction volume of 1.28 billion yuan during the holiday [2] - The "six project linkage" strategy by China National Trade also contributed to increased customer traffic and sales [2] Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market in Shanghai remained sluggish, with only 780 transactions recorded during the holiday, a significant drop from 2,133 transactions in the same period last year [4][5] - The average daily transaction volume for second-hand homes was only 111 units, indicating a prolonged negotiation period between buyers and sellers [4][5] - Despite the decline, the overall resilience of the second-hand market was noted, with a year-to-date increase in transactions compared to the previous year [5] Market Outlook - The real estate market in Shanghai is expected to remain cautiously optimistic for the fourth quarter, driven by the recovery in the new housing market and upcoming supply plans [6][8] - Recent policy changes, including the "Six Policies" aimed at addressing structural issues in the market, have positively impacted sales and customer visits [6][7] - Analysts suggest that while the market is stabilizing, further policy adjustments may not be necessary, with expectations leaning towards a potential reduction in LPR (Loan Prime Rate) [9]

Core Insights - The Chinese herbal medicine market is experiencing a significant price decline due to increased supply and weakened demand, marking a systemic adjustment across the industry [1][3][4] Price Trends - The average trading price of six major herbal medicines in Dingxi, Gansu Province, has dropped to 61.54 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 1.07% from the previous week, continuing a six-week downward trend [2] - The price index for Sanqi has fallen to 135.94 points, down 30.9% from 196.77 points at the beginning of the year [2] - The overall Chinese herbal medicine price index has decreased by 28.5% since July 2024, reaching a new low of 1605.27 points [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The oversupply in the market is attributed to a significant increase in planting area driven by previous high prices, with an expected total output of 5.8 million tons against a demand of 5 million tons, resulting in a surplus rate of 16% [4][5] - The demand side is weak, with traditional Chinese medicine enterprises facing pressure from national procurement policies, leading to a conservative purchasing strategy [5] Market Behavior - Speculative trading in niche herbal products has led to drastic price corrections, with some products like Cat's Claw dropping over 90% from their peak prices [5] - Regulatory interventions and the implementation of quality management standards are reshaping the market, pushing non-compliant products out of formal channels [6][7] Future Outlook - The current price decline is expected to persist until at least the end of 2025, with further increases in low-priced varieties anticipated as production peaks [7]

Domestic Macro - On September 19, the State Council discussed the revised draft of the Banking Supervision Law of the People's Republic of China [1] - On September 22, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on achieving high-quality completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan, highlighting the financial sector's achievements during this period [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange Party Committee announced efforts to promote long-term capital entering the market [1] - The Ministry of Finance indicated guidance for local governments to implement a series of incremental debt support policies [1] - On September 23, the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments issued policies to promote service exports, including optimizing zero tax rate declaration procedures and increasing export credit insurance support [1] - On September 24, the People's Bank of China announced a 600 billion yuan MLF operation, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan this month, marking the seventh consecutive month of increased operations [1] Industry Policy - On September 20, the National Healthcare Security Administration released the 11th batch of drug procurement documents [2] - On September 21, the China Academy of Science and Technology Development Strategy published the "China Regional Science and Technology Innovation Evaluation Report 2025" [2] - The State Council's Food Safety Office is accelerating the establishment of national standards for prepared dishes [2] - On September 22, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments jointly issued the "Steel Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)", setting an average annual growth target of around 4% for the steel industry's added value [2] - The National Sports Administration released guidelines to promote the high-quality development of sports for health [2] - On September 23, the Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments issued guidelines to vigorously develop digital consumption, including trials for smart connected vehicles [2] - On September 24, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments issued the "Building Materials Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)", with strict capacity control for cement and glass [2] - On September 25, the National Healthcare Security Administration published the "National Long-term Care Insurance Service Project Directory (Trial)" [2] Local Policy - On September 19, Shanghai issued a notice optimizing the personal housing property tax pilot policies, exempting the first home for talent with residence permits and families with residence permits for over three years, and exempting the second home within 60 square meters per person [3] - On September 21, Sanya passed the "Implementation Measures for the Development of Guaranteed Rental Housing", with rental prices for guaranteed rental housing guided by the government [3] - On September 25, Tianjin will conduct a pilot for the registration of real estate trust property [3] Overseas Dynamics - On September 19, the Bank of Japan decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% [4] - The European Commission approved a new round of sanctions against Russia, covering energy, financial services, and trade restrictions [4] - On September 20, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order significantly reforming the H-1B visa program, requiring applicants to pay a fee of $100,000 [4] - On September 22, President Trump stated he would meet with Chinese leaders during the APEC informal leaders' meeting [4] - On September 24, Li Qiang met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in New York; the U.S. officially imposed a 15% tariff on EU cars and automotive products [4] - On September 25, the Ministry of Commerce announced the inclusion of three U.S. entities, including Flat Earth Management, in the export control list and initiated an investigation into trade and investment barriers related to Mexico [4]

Report Summary 1. Market Data - As of September 19, 2025, the closing prices of various assets are provided, including commodities (e.g., coking coal at 1232.00, glass at 1216.00), A-shares (e.g., CSI 500 at 7170.35, SSE 50 at 2909.74), overseas stocks (e.g., Nasdaq at 22631.48, S&P 500 at 6664.36), bonds (e.g., 2-year Chinese Treasury bond yield at 1.48), and foreign exchange (e.g., USD-CNY central parity rate at 7.11) [1] - The weekly changes show that commodities rose by 0.32%, A-shares fell by 0.44%, overseas stocks fell by 1.98%, bonds had various yield changes, and foreign exchange also had corresponding fluctuations [1] 2. Commodity Views Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways movement [3] - Bullish logic: Smooth first - round Sino - US negotiations, policies to boost consumption, increased A - share trading volume, increased margin trading balance, and positive Shanghai real estate policies [3] - Bearish logic: Market already priced in rate - cut expectations, large - financial stocks' decline, regulatory intention to cool the market, approaching National Day holiday, and reduced ETF shares tracking the CSI 300 [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 expect a sideways movement [3] - Bullish logic: Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, central bank's liquidity injection, and long - term fundamental support for the bond market [3] - Bearish logic: Expectations for Q4 growth - stabilizing policies, high risk - appetite, and poor result of 30 - year special Treasury bond issuance [3] Energy Sector - **Crude Oil** - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 2 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways movement [4] - Bullish logic: Potential inflation in the far - term, Russian supply disruption, Asian demand, undervalued price, and Fed's expected rate cuts [4] - Bearish logic: Seasonal decline in European and American demand, OPEC's Q4 production increase, increased US distillate inventory, and US refinery maintenance [4] Agricultural Sector - **Soybean Oil** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways movement [4] - Bullish logic: Lower - than - expected US soybean good - quality rate, biodiesel policy, expected decline in October soybean imports, and Sino - US trade uncertainty [4] - Bearish logic: Argentina's export tax suspension, South American soybean sowing, high domestic inventory, inventory accumulation, and expected high US soybean yield [4] Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Aluminum** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 5 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 2 expect a sideways movement [5] - Bullish logic: Fed's rate - cut cycle, improved downstream consumption after price decline, pre - holiday stocking demand, and entry into the traditional peak demand season [5] - Bearish logic: Neutral Fed stance, continuous inventory accumulation, weak peak - season characteristics, and slow inventory depletion [5] Chemical Sector - **Methanol** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways movement [5] - Bullish logic: Iranian plant shutdown, improved MTO profit, reduced port pressure, and macro - policy support [5] - Bearish logic: High coastal inventory, strong supply pressure, and weak pre - holiday stocking demand [5] Precious Metals Sector - **Gold** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 6 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 2 expect a sideways movement [6] - Bullish logic: Strong central bank demand, US stagflation risk, Fed's rate - cut cycle, and increased ETF holdings [6] - Bearish logic: Short - term profit - taking after rate - cut, rebound of the US dollar index and Treasury yields, and potential slowdown of rate - cut [6] Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways movement [6] - Bullish logic: Decreased port inventory, pre - holiday restocking by steel mills, reduced arrivals, and increased molten iron production [6] - Bearish logic: Increased shipments from Australia and Brazil, weak steel demand, increased shipments from non - mainstream countries, and declining steel mill profitability [6]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the coexistence of low pig prices and policy adjustments, indicating that capacity reduction may gradually become evident in the swine breeding sector. The average price of live pigs was 12.69 CNY/kg as of September 19, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.66 CNY/kg. The utilization rate of fattening barns has declined, averaging 40.12% across 17 provinces, down 4.82 percentage points from August 31 [2][10][33]. - In the beef sector, prices for calves and fattening bulls remained stable at 32.44 CNY/kg and 25.97 CNY/kg respectively, with year-to-date increases of 35% and 10%. The long-term outlook suggests tightening beef supply, with a potential price upturn expected in 2026-2027 [3][35]. - The poultry sector is experiencing weak performance, particularly in the white-feathered chicken market, where prices have decreased to 6.88 CNY/kg. The ongoing avian influenza outbreaks may further restrict upstream production capacity [4][41]. - In the agricultural products segment, soybean meal prices have faced downward pressure due to fluctuating market expectations regarding U.S.-China trade negotiations. As of September 19, soybean meal futures were priced at 3014 CNY/ton, down 65 CNY/ton week-on-week [4][55]. Summary by Sections Swine Breeding - Continued supply pressure has led to a decline in pig prices, with a current average of 12.69 CNY/kg. The utilization rate of fattening barns has dropped to 40.12% [2][10]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has increased slightly to 128.45 kg, indicating a strong outflow from larger farms [20][33]. - The price of piglets has reached a yearly low, averaging 259 CNY/head, down 11% week-on-week [27][33]. Beef Industry - The beef market is stabilizing after recent price increases, with expectations of tightening supply leading to a potential price upturn in 2026-2027 [3][35]. - Current prices for calves and fattening bulls are stable, reflecting a recovery trend in the market [35]. Poultry Sector - The white-feathered chicken market is underperforming, with prices at 6.88 CNY/kg. The ongoing avian influenza situation may further impact production capacity [4][41]. - Egg prices have fluctuated, recently peaking at 8 CNY/kg before settling at 7.92 CNY/kg [4][41]. Agricultural Products - Soybean meal prices have been volatile, influenced by U.S.-China trade negotiations, with current prices at 3014 CNY/ton [4][55]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring weather conditions and trade policies affecting soybean imports [4][55].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The end - of - month and beginning - of - month significant reduction in supply by large - scale pig farms led to a rebound in spot prices as expected. However, the average weight of pigs is increasing again, the price difference between fat and standard pigs is weakening, and the overall supply increase in September is large. From September to October, the production capacity cycle and inventory cycle resonate, and market pressure is gradually emerging. It is expected that the spot price center will further decline, and the national average price will hit new lows. The enthusiasm for purchasing piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of pigs to be slaughtered in March - May. Attention should be paid to the driving force of the downward shift of the price center in March and May. There is an expectation of further policy regulation for the July contract, which is mainly strong in the short - term. Stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2511 contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,500 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The spot price in Henan is 13,230 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; in Sichuan, it is 12,950 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year; in Guangdong, it is 14,160 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the Live Pig 2511 contract is 13,275 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Live Pig 2601 contract is 13,745 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Live Pig 2603 contract is 13,045 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Live Pig 2511 contract is 38,413 lots, an increase of 8,046 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 81,062 lots, an increase of 2,009 lots from the previous day; the Live Pig 2601 contract has a trading volume of 14,187 lots, an increase of 1,557 lots, and an open interest of 54,865 lots, an increase of 765 lots; the Live Pig 2603 contract has a trading volume of 3,991 lots, a decrease of 516 lots, and an open interest of 38,157 lots, an increase of 915 lots [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the Live Pig 2511 contract is - 45 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the Live Pig 2601 contract is - 515 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the Live Pig 2603 contract is 185 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton year - on - year; the spread between the 11th and 1st contracts is - 470 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; the spread between the 1st and 3rd contracts is 700 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, with the range of values being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3] 3. Market Logic - As described in the core view, including factors such as supply changes, price trends, and policy expectations [4]

Consumption Data - In August 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, slowing from 3.7% in the previous month[2] - The retail sales growth was negatively impacted by a 2.3% decline in tobacco and alcohol sales, which reduced the overall growth rate by 0.03 percentage points[7] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly stimulated sales in home appliances and cultural office supplies, while oil and petroleum products saw negative growth due to global economic conditions[2] Real Estate Market - The sales area of commercial housing in August was 57.44 million square meters, down 11% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.03 percentage points compared to the previous month[17] - Real estate development investment decreased by 12.9%, reflecting ongoing adjustments in the market and low consumer confidence[2] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in real estate development funding sources was 8%, with personal mortgage loans down 10.5%[28] Investment Trends - From January to August 2025, fixed asset investment totaled 326,111 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5%, slowing by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 2%, but the overall investment environment remains challenging due to reduced government spending and ongoing market adjustments[30] - Manufacturing investment growth was recorded at 5.1%, but this was a decline of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in industrial investment[36] Economic Outlook - Industrial production growth for January to August was 6.2%, maintaining stability but facing challenges from insufficient domestic demand[39] - The urgency for macroeconomic adjustments has increased, with potential policy focuses on interest rate cuts and increased issuance of government bonds[44] - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic macroeconomic policies and unexpected credit events[47]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - At the end of the month and the beginning of the month, large - scale pig - raising groups significantly reduced supply, and the spot price rebounded as expected. However, the average weight of pigs increased again, the price difference between fat and lean pigs weakened, and the overall supply in September increased significantly. From September to October, the production capacity cycle and inventory cycle resonated, and market pressure gradually emerged. It is expected that the spot price center will further decline, and the national average price will hit new lows. The enthusiasm for purchasing piglets declined, and the price decline accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of pigs to be slaughtered in March - May. Attention should be paid to the downward - driving force of the price center in March and May. There is an expectation of further policy regulation for the July contract, which is mainly strong in the short - term. Stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2511 contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,500 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The price of Henan's live - pig spot is 13,480 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; Sichuan's is 13,400 yuan/ton, with no year - on - year change; Guangdong's is 14,340 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan/ton. The price of the live - pig 2511 futures is 13,255 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the live - pig 2601 is 13,690 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the live - pig 2603 is 13,060 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 45 yuan/ton [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the live - pig 2511 futures is 30,367 lots, an increase of 9,160 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 79,053 lots, an increase of 3,100 lots from the previous day; the live - pig 2601 has a trading volume of 12,630 lots, an increase of 3,561 lots from the previous day, and an open interest of 54,100 lots, an increase of 1,440 lots from the previous day; the live - pig 2603 has a trading volume of 4,507 lots, an increase of 1,694 lots from the previous day, and an open interest of 37,242 lots, an increase of 577 lots from the previous day [1] - **Price Spread**: The basis of the live - pig 2511 is 225 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 15 yuan/ton; the live - pig 2601 is - 210 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the live - pig 2603 is 420 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 95 yuan/ton. The spread between the live - pig 11 - 1 is - 435 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the spread between the live - pig 1 - 3 is 630 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 85 yuan/ton [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a value range of [- 2,2] for integers. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [2] Market Logic - At the end of the month and the beginning of the month, large - scale pig - raising groups significantly reduced supply, and the spot price rebounded as expected. However, the average weight of pigs increased again, the price difference between fat and lean pigs weakened, and the overall supply in September increased significantly. From September to October, the production capacity cycle and inventory cycle resonated, and market pressure gradually emerged. It is expected that the spot price center will further decline, and the national average price will hit new lows. The enthusiasm for purchasing piglets declined, and the price decline accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of pigs to be slaughtered in March - May. Attention should be paid to the downward - driving force of the price center in March and May. There is an expectation of further policy regulation for the July contract, which is mainly strong in the short - term. Stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2511 contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,500 yuan/ton [3]