国能日新（301162.SZ）2025 年半年报点评 核心业务实现高增，电力交易等业务打开长期发展空间 2025 年 08 月 25 日 ➢ 事件概述：2025 年 8 月 23 日公司发布 2025 年半年报，2025 年上半年公 司实现营业收入 3.21 亿元，同比增长 43.15%；归母净利润 4597.32 万元，同 比增长 32.48%。 ➢ 新能源功率预测主业强劲增长，同比增速超 50%。国家能源局明确分布式 光伏需实现 "可观、可测、可调、可控"，2024 年新国标（GB/T 29319-2024） 首次规范分布式光伏功率预测技术，全国主要省份已陆续发布新建分布式电站 "四可"配置要求，存量改造政策待后续落地。公司分布式"四可"配置综合解 决方案已在多省区部署，成为功率预测业务新增量。 受益于装机"抢装潮"及分布式"四可"需求，2025H1 公司净新增服务电站 1116 家，截至 2025 年 6 月末服务电站达 5461 家（2024 年底 4345 家）；实现收入 20510.97 万元，同比增长 55.14%。2025 年 5 月完成"旷冥"新能源大模型 2.0 迭代，优化模型稳定性与性能 ...

业绩简评 8 月 22 日，公司披露 2025 年半年报，1H25 实现营业收入 3.2 亿元，同比+43.2%，归母净利润 0.5 亿元，同比+32.5%，实现毛 利率 61.4%，同比-5.9pct；Q2 实现营业收入 1.8 亿元，同比+45.7%， 归母净利润 0.3 亿元，同比+31.3%，实现毛利率 65.7%，同比 -3.2pct，Q2 业绩符合预期。 经营分析 发电功率预测业务快速增长，领先优势稳固。受新能源装机景气 度&分布式"四可"管理要求，截至 25H1，公司功率预测业务服务 电站数量净新 1116 家，净增数量远超历史水平，用户数量达到 5461 家，细分行业市占率保持领先。公司自研"旷冥"新能源大 模型持续迭代，综合功率预测精度保持行业领先，25H1 公司功率 预测业务实现营收 2.1 亿元，同比+55.1%，毛利率 61.6%，同比 -11.9pct，主要系公司新建电站客户数量较多，低毛利功率预测 设备占比提升影响。 并网控制、新能源管理业务日臻优化产品功能、短期营收承压。 1）并网控制：传统控制类产品的参数及性能优化升级，分布式并 网融合终端产品的销售区域已逐步拓展至十余个省份， ...

Core Insights - The implementation of the document 136 is reshaping the industry ecosystem, marking the beginning of a new era where renewable energy fully participates in market-oriented electricity trading [2][4] - The transition from "mechanism-driven" to "market-driven" electricity trading is underway, with AI and data analysis becoming essential for companies to navigate the new market dynamics [5][6] Industry Trends - The market for electricity trading consulting and management services has seen explosive growth, with some companies reporting a fourfold increase in consulting inquiries and a doubling of order volumes compared to the previous year [1][3] - The demand for skilled electricity trading professionals is rising sharply, as companies require strong data analysis capabilities and insights into industry policies to make informed trading decisions [2][4] Company Developments - Companies are increasingly seeking partnerships with professional electricity trading service providers to enhance their trading strategies and improve the profitability of their electricity assets [2][3] - AI technologies are being integrated into every aspect of electricity trading, from load forecasting to pricing analysis, significantly improving decision-making processes [6][7] Market Dynamics - The proportion of renewable energy entering the market is continuously increasing, which raises the bar for investment returns and operational quality for renewable energy companies [2][4] - The establishment of provincial-level spot markets is accelerating, with several provinces already in formal operation, indicating a broader shift towards market-based trading systems [4][5] Future Outlook - Companies are focusing on building core competencies in the refined operation of renewable energy assets and exploring investment opportunities in emerging sectors such as AI-driven energy solutions and virtual power plants [5][6] - The future of revenue assessment for renewable energy projects will be restructured due to price volatility, necessitating enhanced trading and operational capabilities [6][7]

Group 1: Market Trends and Policies - Distributed photovoltaic (PV) capacity is expected to grow significantly, with the National Energy Administration's guidelines emphasizing the "four capabilities" management requirements for distributed energy sources [2][3] - As of Q1 2025, the company has seen a rapid increase in the number of distributed PV clients due to the new power forecasting requirements [2] - The total installed capacity of wind and solar power in China reached 74.33 million kW in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of over 20% [5] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The distributed power forecasting market is characterized by a large number of small-scale projects, with lower project prices compared to centralized clients [4] - Major comprehensive group companies show low participation interest in the distributed power forecasting market, leaving it primarily to small and medium-sized forecasting firms [4] Group 3: Future Market Expectations - The company anticipates that the total installed capacity of wind and solar power will reach approximately 200 million kW in 2025, indicating a stable expansion of the new energy market [5] - The company plans to enhance its service quality and product pricing to improve its market share in the centralized forecasting market [5] Group 4: Electricity Trading Market Outlook - The new regulations aim to promote market-oriented pricing for renewable energy, which will increase the demand for power forecasting and trading products [6][7] - The company expects the electricity trading market to become increasingly reliant on big data and artificial intelligence for efficient management and improved trading outcomes [7] - Future characteristics of the electricity trading market include a rising proportion of market-based transactions and a growing importance of renewable energy generation [7] Group 5: Corporate Actions - The company has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for the issuance of A-shares to specific investors in 2024 and will proceed with the issuance process [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Guoneng Rixin, has reported a significant growth in revenue and net profit for the year, driven by its focus on the renewable energy sector and the increasing demand for its power prediction and management services [5][14][34]. Financial Performance - The company achieved an operating income of 549.76 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.50% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 93.59 million yuan, reflecting an 11.09% increase compared to the previous year [5]. - The company's main business, power prediction services, generated revenue of 309.47 million yuan, up 15.55% year-on-year [14]. Business Overview - Guoneng Rixin specializes in software and information technology services for the renewable energy industry, focusing on power prediction and management systems [5][34]. - The company has maintained a strong growth in its customer base, with a net increase of 755 new power station users, a 21.03% year-on-year growth, bringing the total to 4,345 users [7]. Product Development - The company has launched the "Kuangming" renewable energy model, which significantly enhances the accuracy and efficiency of power prediction compared to traditional methods [8][38]. - Continuous investment in meteorological technology and algorithm development has strengthened the company's core capabilities in power prediction [8]. Market Trends - The demand for high-precision power prediction services is expected to grow due to the increasing integration of renewable energy sources into the grid and the implementation of new regulatory standards [35][36]. - The introduction of the "Four Available" management requirements for distributed photovoltaic systems is anticipated to further drive market demand for the company's services [35][36]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively expanding its product offerings in energy management systems, virtual power plants, and energy trading products to align with market needs and regulatory changes [23][27][32]. - Guoneng Rixin is pursuing strategic investments in upstream and downstream companies within the renewable energy sector to enhance its market position and operational capabilities [32].