国能日新（301162.SZ） 证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 08 月 26 日 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 456 | 550 | 695 | 895 | 1,170 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 26.9 | 20.5 | 26.4 | 28.8 | 30.7 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 84 | 94 | 133 | 160 | 179 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 25.6 | 11.1 | 42.6 | 20.2 | 11.9 | | ROE（%） | 7.6 | 7.9 | 10.4 | 11.6 | 12.0 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.64 | 0.71 | 1.01 | 1.21 | 1.35 | | P/E（倍） | 85.0 | 76.5 | 53.6 | 44.6 | 39.9 | | P/B（倍） | 6.7 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 资料来源： ...

业绩简评 8 月 22 日，公司披露 2025 年半年报，1H25 实现营业收入 3.2 亿元，同比+43.2%，归母净利润 0.5 亿元，同比+32.5%，实现毛 利率 61.4%，同比-5.9pct；Q2 实现营业收入 1.8 亿元，同比+45.7%， 归母净利润 0.3 亿元，同比+31.3%，实现毛利率 65.7%，同比 -3.2pct，Q2 业绩符合预期。 经营分析 发电功率预测业务快速增长，领先优势稳固。受新能源装机景气 度&分布式"四可"管理要求，截至 25H1，公司功率预测业务服务 电站数量净新 1116 家，净增数量远超历史水平，用户数量达到 5461 家，细分行业市占率保持领先。公司自研"旷冥"新能源大 模型持续迭代，综合功率预测精度保持行业领先，25H1 公司功率 预测业务实现营收 2.1 亿元，同比+55.1%，毛利率 61.6%，同比 -11.9pct，主要系公司新建电站客户数量较多，低毛利功率预测 设备占比提升影响。 并网控制、新能源管理业务日臻优化产品功能、短期营收承压。 1）并网控制：传统控制类产品的参数及性能优化升级，分布式并 网融合终端产品的销售区域已逐步拓展至十余个省份， ...

中证报中证网讯(王珞)8月22日，国能日新（301162）发布2025年半年度报告。上半年，公司实现营业 收入3.21亿元，同比增长43.15%；归母净利润4597.32万元，同比增长32.48%。 新能源发电功率预测方面，受益于新能源整体装机规模快速增长及分布式"四可"管理要求带来的新增市 场机会等因素影响，报告期内，公司功率预测服务规模快速提升，净新增电站用户数量达1116家，较 2024年底服务规模增速达26%，服务电站净增数量远超往年历史同期水平。截至2025年半年度，公司功 率预测服务的新能源电站数量增至5461家。报告显示，上半年，公司新能源发电功率预测产品收入2.05 亿元，同比增长55.14%。 公司不断优化高精度气象智能预测平台、核心算法及自研的"旷冥"新能源大模型，持续提升公司气象、 算法等核心底层能力。2025年5月，公司完成"旷冥"新能源大模型2.0版本的迭代升级，通过对模型技 术、稳定性和整体性能方面的优化，全面提升全网新能源预测综合准确率。根据公司内部数据测算，在 部分区域的风电/光伏功率预测精准率上精度提升达到1%-1.5%。 新能源并网智能控制方面，在新能源集中式电站领域，公司 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the continuous settlement trial in the southern regional electricity market marks a significant step towards the establishment of a unified national electricity market, prompting the company to actively respond to market challenges [1] Group 1: Market Response and Strategy - The company is focusing on rule disassembly, demand research, and iterative development of trading products in response to the new electricity trading rules [2] - The company is increasing R&D investment, leveraging technological breakthroughs such as the "Kuangming" new energy model to enhance core competitiveness [1][2] - The company is aligning its strategies with the "dual carbon" policy and the construction of a new power system, exploring new paths for renewable energy management and market-oriented operations [1][5] Group 2: Technological Innovation - The company is advancing the development of a one-stop new energy big data platform and intelligent model platform, integrating AI technology with deep learning to enhance core competitiveness [2] - The company has maintained R&D expenditure at 17% to 20% of revenue over the past three years, achieving significant progress in the vertical meteorological prediction model [3] - The "Kuangming" new energy model will be upgraded to version 2.0 in May 2025, improving the accuracy of power predictions under extreme weather conditions [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The release of policies promoting market-oriented pricing for renewable energy provides institutional support for high-quality development in the industry [2] - The company anticipates increased market volatility in electricity prices, presenting unprecedented challenges for renewable energy enterprises [2] - The traditional electricity sales companies will face challenges such as price fluctuations and changing user electricity behaviors as the electricity spot market continues to deepen [2] Group 4: Comprehensive Energy Services - The company offers services such as industrial and commercial energy storage operations and comprehensive energy services to help enterprises optimize energy costs and enhance the utilization of green electricity [3] - AI is empowering every aspect of electricity trading, from load forecasting to trading strategy formulation, enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of trading strategies [4] - The company provides clients with multi-dimensional core data prediction services and full-process trading management services to facilitate better participation in electricity trading [4] Group 5: Future Development and Product Expansion - The company aims to restructure the evaluation and measurement methods for renewable energy project revenues due to price volatility, emphasizing the importance of trading and operational capabilities [4] - The company is committed to building a complete information product system for renewable energy management, extending its management capabilities from production and consumption to transmission and consumption [5][6] - The company plans to leverage market opportunities from electricity market reforms to continuously advance product depth and provide comprehensive electricity trading solutions [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the computer industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The reduction of tariffs is expected to accelerate China's economic growth, positively impacting the capital market and the overall performance of the computer industry [4][20] - The military informationization sector is highlighted as a promising area, with improved order conditions reported by some companies [4][20] - The AI commercialization is progressing, with significant advancements in large model technologies, particularly with the release of OpenAI's GPT-4.1 model [4][20] Summary by Sections Market Review - During the week of May 12-16, 2025, the computer (Shenwan) index declined by 1.26%, trailing behind the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 0.76%, and the Shenzhen Component Index, which increased by 0.52% [1][11] - Sub-sector performance showed declines in computer equipment (-0.92%), software development (-1.15%), and IT services II (-1.65%) [1][13] Key Announcements - Beijing Lier announced an investment of 200 million RMB in Shanghai Zhenliang Intelligent Technology Co., focusing on AI chip development [2][17] - Guoneng Rixin upgraded its "Kuangming" new energy model, enhancing its predictive capabilities in various fields [2][19] - Newland plans to globalize its payment solutions, enhancing its digital solutions for global commerce [3][19] Investment Insights - The joint statement from the US and China on May 12, 2025, regarding tariff adjustments is expected to benefit the computer industry as economic conditions improve [4][20] - Companies like Zhimingda reported a significant recovery in orders, with a 174% year-on-year increase in total orders, particularly in airborne and missile-mounted products [4][20] - The AI sector is witnessing rapid advancements, with major companies launching new models and enhancing their offerings [4][20]

Group 1: Company Performance and Growth - As of the end of 2024, the company serves 4,345 renewable energy stations, a net increase of 755 stations compared to the same period in 2023, indicating a growth trend in service scale [2] - The renewal rate for existing customers in the power forecasting business remains above 95% as of the end of 2024, reflecting strong customer retention [2] - The company's sales expenses increased by approximately 23% year-on-year in 2024, driven by market expansion strategies and increased operational workload [7] Group 2: Market Trends and Policy Impact - The distributed photovoltaic market is experiencing rapid growth due to new policies, with the National Energy Administration's recent guidelines emphasizing the need for power forecasting capabilities in new distributed energy stations [3] - The company anticipates a significant increase in the number of distributed photovoltaic clients starting in 2025, driven by the implementation of the "Four Available" management requirements [3] - Regulatory changes in provinces like East China, Shanxi, and Jiangsu are pushing for upgrades in existing distributed energy stations to meet new power forecasting and grid control standards [4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The distributed power forecasting market is characterized by a large number of small-scale projects with lower unit prices, making it less attractive for large integrated companies [5] - The current market participants in distributed power forecasting are primarily small to medium-sized firms, indicating an opportunity for the company to capture a larger market share [5] Group 4: Technological Advancements - The company has upgraded its proprietary "Kuangming" renewable energy model, enhancing stability and performance while improving forecasting accuracy and efficiency [7] - The integration of advanced model technologies aims to strengthen the company's capabilities in regional forecasting, big data decision-making, and extreme weather prediction [7] - Future efforts will focus on further integrating large model technology with various business lines to enhance product competitiveness and cost-effectiveness [7]

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of approximately CNY 550 million, a year-on-year increase of 20.50% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 93.59 million, up 11.09% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, revenue reached approximately CNY 145 million, a growth of 40.14% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q1 2025 was CNY 16.61 million, increasing by 34.58% [1] Business Segments Power Prediction Services - By the end of 2024, the company served 4,345 power station clients, a net increase of 755 clients, representing a growth rate of 21.03% [2] - Revenue from power prediction services in 2024 was CNY 309 million, accounting for 56.29% of total revenue, with a gross margin close to 70% [2] - Equipment revenue for power prediction was CNY 78.73 million, up 23% year-on-year [2] Smart Grid Control - The smart grid control business generated approximately CNY 124 million in revenue in 2024, a growth of 28.01%, representing 22.55% of total revenue [3] Innovative Business Development - The innovative business segment achieved revenue of CNY 30.81 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24% [5] - R&D investment in 2024 totaled CNY 95.33 million, accounting for 17.34% of total revenue [5] Market Trends and Policies - In Q1 2025, the total installed capacity of wind and solar power in China increased by 74.33 million kW, a year-on-year growth of over 20% [12] - The company anticipates that the new energy sector will maintain a favorable operating environment in 2025, with an expected addition of 200 million kW of wind and solar capacity nationwide [12] Shareholder Returns - The board proposed a profit distribution plan for 2024, which includes a cash dividend of CNY 4.70 per 10 shares and a bonus share issue of 2 shares for every 10 shares held, totaling nearly CNY 47 million in cash dividends [6] Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance its product offerings in the distributed photovoltaic market, focusing on power prediction systems and integrated solutions for energy management [9][10] - The introduction of the "Kuangming" AI model is expected to improve prediction accuracy and enhance the company's market share in power prediction services [20]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Guoneng Rixin, has achieved steady growth in its performance for the year 2024, driven by technological innovation and market expansion in the booming renewable energy sector [2] Financial Performance - In 2024, Guoneng Rixin reported operating revenue of 549.76 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.50%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 93.59 million yuan, up 11.09% [2] - In the first quarter of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 145.05 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 40.14%, and a net profit of 16.61 million yuan, increasing by 34.58% [2] - The company's non-recurring net profit for Q1 2025 was nearly 15 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 104.81% [2] Business Segments - The power prediction business of Guoneng Rixin performed exceptionally well, with revenue reaching 309.47 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.55%, and a gross profit margin of 69.34% [3] - The company added 755 new power stations during the reporting period, bringing the total number of serviced renewable energy clients to 4,345, maintaining a leading market share [3] - The control products segment generated revenue of 123.95 million yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 28.01% [3] Technological Innovation - Guoneng Rixin emphasizes technological innovation as a core driver of its development, focusing on emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence [4] - The company successfully developed the "Kuangming" renewable energy model, enhancing prediction accuracy and efficiency in areas like power generation forecasting and extreme weather prediction [4] - The company is expanding its team of core researchers in advanced meteorology and algorithms to optimize its high-precision meteorological prediction platform [4] Strategic Development - In 2025, Guoneng Rixin plans to deepen its focus on the renewable energy sector, enhancing technological innovation and market expansion [5] - The company aims to build an integrated service system encompassing generation, grid, load, and storage, enhancing its product and service development capabilities [5] - Guoneng Rixin is exploring new business models and market opportunities through investments and acquisitions, aiming to expand its sales scale and consolidate market position [6] - The company is also pursuing overseas business development, targeting markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa to enhance its international competitiveness [6]