化工行业：行业有望底部回暖，供需格局 或迎积极变化 2025 年 12 月 18 日 看好/维持 化工 行业报告 ——化工行业 2026 年策略报告 | | | 投资摘要 我国化工行业景气有望底部回暖，行业供需格局预期改善。2025 年，化工品价格指数小幅震荡下行，化工行业仍处于低景 气阶段，但目前全球能源类成本已从高位回落，同时，从供给、需求、库存角度看，行业已出现积极变化。具体来说，供给 端化工行业投资增速持续放缓，反内卷政策引导行业自律，叠加海外老旧化工品产能退出力度加大，供给端压力有所减轻； 需求端传统需求弱复苏，新兴产业有望带来增量；库存端去库存周期结束，已现小幅补库迹象。综合来看，在行业供需格局 预期改善的背景下，我国化工行业景气有望边际改善。 展望 2026 年，随着化工品供需格局改善，以及原油、煤炭等大宗原材料价格回落、行业成本压力有所缓解，我们认为处于 中游的化工行业景气度有望改善，并迎来布局良机。我们建议重点关注以下三大投资方向： （1）供需格局有望改善、行业景气有望回升的子行业。结合前述我们对于国内化工供给和需求格局的分析，我们认为，从 供给端来看，受到行业竞争加剧、市场价格下行、投资回 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the basic chemical industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% [2][18]. Core Insights - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasized that technological innovation and green development are long-term goals for the chemical industry, which will drive future growth [3][5]. - Technological innovation is identified as a key trend, with a focus on high-end materials and domestic replacements in the chemical sector, particularly in electronic chemical materials [4]. - Green development is highlighted as a foundation for sustainable growth, with government policies aimed at energy conservation and carbon reduction expected to improve supply-demand dynamics in certain sub-industries [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The chemical industry is projected to benefit from increased R&D investments, leading to breakthroughs in high-barrier fine chemicals and new materials, with domestic leaders likely to gain market share [4]. Policy Impact - The government's push for green transformation, including a target to reduce carbon emissions by approximately 110 million tons, is expected to accelerate the elimination of outdated capacities in high-energy-consuming sectors [5]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sub-industries with improving supply-demand dynamics, leading companies with capital expenditure and R&D driving long-term growth, and high-end chemical new materials benefiting from increased demand or domestic replacements [5]. Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include Longbai Group, Hualu Hengsheng, Yangnong Chemical, Xinheng Cheng, and Guocera Materials, all of which are expected to perform strongly in the market [5][12]. Financial Projections - Earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies are provided, with Longbai Group projected to have an EPS of 1.30 in 2026 and a PE ratio of 14.98, indicating strong performance [7][12].