机构观点汇总： 宁证期货：PTA1季度累库预期增强，且近期部分聚酯大厂计划逐步降负，PTA自身驱动有限，中长期随着产能集中投放周期结束，PTA加工费预 计将逐步改善。PX基本已反应节后预期，近期PX供应整体较预期宽松，远端预期较好。PTA短期观望为佳。 本周(1月5日-1月9日)市场上看，PTA期货周内开盘报5128元/吨，最高触及5210元/吨，最低下探至5014元/吨，周度涨跌幅达-0.66%。 消息面回顾： 截止2026年1月7日，中国PTA平均加工区间为336.2元/吨，同比+17.23%。 装置方面，三房巷（600370）75万吨甁片、逸普12万吨甁片、金大禹10万吨化纤检修，三房巷50万吨甁片重启。 PTA周均产能利用率74.2%，较上周+0.35%。国内PTA产量为143.12万吨，较上周+1.07万吨。 截至2026年1月9日当周，PTA期货主力合约收于5108元/吨，周K线收阳，持仓量环比上周增持5175手。 国信期货：终端织机逐步降负，聚酯开工预期下滑，成品毛利显著压缩，下游需求边际走弱。PTA检修装置重启，现货供应环比增加，1月预期逐 步开启累库，但整体压力低于往年。亚洲汽油裂差回落，P ...

来源：尧望后势 近期，涨价链再度成为资本市场上的一条重要线索。从我们跟踪的高频价格数据来看，近期的涨价链主 要集中在有色、石油石化、部分化工品、航运、存储、部分农产品等，可以概括为以下四条线索： 今年以来，随着海外流动性宽松，国内PPI触底回升、"反内卷"政策加持、AI资本开支和储能景气持续 向实物需求传导，资源品涨价线索不断涌现，主要集中在：半导体（存储、晶圆）、新能源相关（锂、 钴、锂电正极材料、多晶硅等）、贵金属（金、银）、稀土（镨、钕）、化工（硫化工、农药、氟化 工、磷化工、化肥等）、航运等。 全球流动性宽松与地缘避险情绪共振驱动的有色价格上涨：包括银、黄金； AI与新能源产业趋势向实物消耗传导：包括存储、锂电（氢氧化锂、碳酸锂）； 供给扰动（美军封锁委内瑞拉石油）与地缘担忧（中东局势升级）推动的石油价格上涨：包括石 油焦、原油、棕榈油； 季节性因素推升供需错配：包括年末终端开工率下降导致供给趋紧的化工品（乙二醇、化纤）、 节前赶工出货潮、年末"抢出口"以及冬季用电量增加带动的运价指数（SCFI、CCSFI、CCFI）、 节前终端市场备货提振的农产品（肉鸡、豆粕等）。 | 品种 | 类别 | | 区间 ...

智通财经APP获悉，东兴证券发布研报称，2025年，化工品价格指数小幅震荡下行，化工行业仍处于低 景气阶段，但目前全球能源类成本已从高位回落，同时，从供给、需求、库存角度看，行业已出现积极 变化。展望2026年国内化工行业，供需格局有望改善，建议关注行业景气有望回升的子行业，如钛白 粉、部分农药品种、化纤、制冷剂等；资本开支和研发共同驱动中长期增长的龙头企业；受益于需求增 加或国产替代持续推进的部分高端化工新材料，如电子化工材料、高端陶瓷材料等。 从需求端来看，国内制造业需求弱复苏，新兴领域或带来增量；此外，大规模设备更新、消费品以旧换 新等具体政策，也有助于拉动汽车、家电产业链相关化工品的需求。因此国内部分化工子行业的供需格 局有改善趋势，看好钛白粉、部分农药品种、化纤、制冷剂等子行业的供需格局有望逐步好转。 (2)资本开支和研发共同驱动中长期增长的龙头企业。经历供给侧改革之后，国内化工行业的集中度已 经有了较大的提升。未来，受到环保、安全、能耗等政策限制，化工行业资本开支向龙头集聚，投资方 向主要是聚焦原有产品产能扩张、围绕产业链向下游高附加值产品延伸、或通过研发驱动向更多高壁垒 的精细化学品和新材料领域 ...

化工行业：行业有望底部回暖，供需格局 或迎积极变化 2025 年 12 月 18 日 看好/维持 化工 行业报告 ——化工行业 2026 年策略报告 | | | 投资摘要 我国化工行业景气有望底部回暖，行业供需格局预期改善。2025 年，化工品价格指数小幅震荡下行，化工行业仍处于低景 气阶段，但目前全球能源类成本已从高位回落，同时，从供给、需求、库存角度看，行业已出现积极变化。具体来说，供给 端化工行业投资增速持续放缓，反内卷政策引导行业自律，叠加海外老旧化工品产能退出力度加大，供给端压力有所减轻； 需求端传统需求弱复苏，新兴产业有望带来增量；库存端去库存周期结束，已现小幅补库迹象。综合来看，在行业供需格局 预期改善的背景下，我国化工行业景气有望边际改善。 展望 2026 年，随着化工品供需格局改善，以及原油、煤炭等大宗原材料价格回落、行业成本压力有所缓解，我们认为处于 中游的化工行业景气度有望改善，并迎来布局良机。我们建议重点关注以下三大投资方向： （1）供需格局有望改善、行业景气有望回升的子行业。结合前述我们对于国内化工供给和需求格局的分析，我们认为，从 供给端来看，受到行业竞争加剧、市场价格下行、投资回 ...

Economic Overview - Effective demand remains significantly insufficient, with industrial added value in November increasing by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly down from 4.9% in the previous period[3] - Retail sales growth has notably slowed to 1.3% year-on-year, down from 2.9% previously[3] - Fixed asset investment year-on-year remains stable at approximately -11%, consistent with the previous value of -11.2%[5] Sector Performance - High-tech industry added value rose by 8.4% year-on-year, up from 7.2% previously[4] - Exports showed resilience with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, recovering from a decline of 1.1%[3] - Real estate sales area decreased by 17.1% year-on-year, an improvement from a 18.6% decline previously, while sales revenue fell by 24.7%, worsening from a 24.1% decline[5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in November decreased by 11.1% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment down by 4.5% and real estate investment down by 30.1%[5] - The construction area for new projects fell by 27.6% year-on-year, while the area under construction dropped by 40%[5] - The total investment in fixed assets for the first 11 months of the year showed a year-on-year decline of 2.6%, with non-real estate fixed asset investment increasing by 0.8%[5] Policy Implications - The central economic work conference highlighted the need to address the "strong supply and weak demand" contradiction and to stimulate investment and consumption[7] - The potential for policy measures to strengthen demand has opened up following the release of November's economic data[7]

上海证券近日发布基础化工行业周报：过去一周（11.29-12.5），基础化工指数涨跌幅为0.13%，沪深 300指数涨跌幅为1.28%，基础化工板块跑输沪深300指数1.15个百分点，涨跌幅居于所有板块第16位。 基础化工子行业涨跌幅靠前的有：膜材料（3.48%）、橡胶助剂（3.42%）、氨纶（2.66%）、钾肥 （2.60%）、无机盐（1.99%）。 以下为研究报告摘要： MDI巨头密集提价。据慧正资讯，近期，全球主要的MDI生产商密集发布调价公告，涨幅从200-350元/ 吨不等，覆盖欧洲、中东、亚太等核心市场。（1）陶氏化学：12月3日，陶氏化学宣布，将对其在欧 洲、中东、非洲及印度（EMEAI）地区销售的所有MDI产品上调价格，涨幅为300欧元/吨（或等值当地 货币）。（2）万华化学：公司宣布从2025年12月1日起，上调其东南亚及南亚地区的聚合MDI与纯MDI 产品价格，调涨幅度为200美元/吨，或按既定合同执行。（3）亨斯迈：公司宣布自12月2日起，在欧 洲、非洲和中东地区对所有MDI产品提价350欧元/吨，或按既定合同执行。（4）巴斯夫：11月20日 起，上调南亚地区MDI系列产品价格，涨幅20 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：华泰证券策略研究 上周A股继续缩量反弹。资金面，联储降息预期回暖和国内基本面定价有效性提升共振下资金面环境有 所改善，主动外资净流出规模收窄、ETF发行和申购回暖，保险风险因子下调或进一步打开险资配置权 益资产空间。景气度，近期TMT、上游资源景气改善幅度居前，关注AI链、涨价链、资本品、大众消 费品和基建链等线索。政治局及中央经济会议前政策预期或逐步升温，12月中下旬"春躁"可能提前启 动，均衡配置成长和周期，中期视角下大金融和部分高性价比消费或仍是中国资产重估的底仓选择。 核心观点 资金观察：配置型资金有回暖迹象，保险风险因子下调或带来增量 近期资金面环境有所改善：1）交易型资金边际放缓，两融余额小幅回升，融资买入额及占成交额比重 回落；私募备案数量放缓至178个，但11月环比提速，且产品发行和建仓有滞后性；2）配置型资金有回 暖迹象，新成立偏股型基金份额小幅回落，但估算普通股票型、偏股混合型基金仓位环比回升；美国 ADP就业数据强化12月降息预期，EPFR统计的主动外资净流出规模收窄；ETF近一周转为净申购，11 月底以来新 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The funding environment has improved, with signs of recovery in allocation-type funds and a reduction in insurance risk factors potentially leading to increased equity asset allocation [2][4] - Recent trends indicate a marginal slowdown in trading funds, while private equity registrations have slowed to 178, but product issuance and positioning are expected to accelerate [2][3] Group 2: Economic Trends - The TMT sector, upstream resources, and public industries have shown significant improvement in economic sentiment over the past three months, with AI applications, price increases in commodities, and capital goods leading the way [3][4] - The construction PMI has strengthened, indicating a positive outlook for the infrastructure chain, while consumer goods such as cinema, cosmetics, and dairy products are also experiencing a recovery [3][4] Group 3: Policy Outlook - Anticipation of policy changes ahead of the December Political Bureau and Central Economic Work Conference is rising, with expectations for more proactive macro policies and a focus on expanding domestic demand [4] - Historical data suggests a higher probability of market gains leading up to the Central Economic Work Conference, particularly in sectors like consumer services and home appliances [4] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The market is currently in a phase of recovery, with potential for a "spring rally" to begin in late December, emphasizing a balanced allocation between growth and cyclical sectors [4] - Key sectors to focus on include aviation equipment, AI chains, and power equipment for growth, while non-ferrous metals and certain chemicals are highlighted for cyclical investments [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Tongkun Co., Ltd. held its 20th meeting of the 9th board of directors on October 28, 2025, to review the third-quarter report and other documents [1] - For the first half of 2025, the revenue composition of Tongkun Co., Ltd. was 92.01% from chemical fibers, 7.97% from petrochemicals, and 0.02% from other businesses [1] - As of the report date, the market capitalization of Tongkun Co., Ltd. was 35.6 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The A-share market has surpassed 4,000 points, marking a significant resurgence after a decade of stagnation, with technology leading the market's transformation [1] - The article suggests that a "slow bull" market pattern is emerging [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant growth and global dominance of China's manufacturing sector, which has seen its value-added manufacturing increase from 26.6 trillion yuan to 33.6 trillion yuan from 2020 to 2024, contributing over 30% to global manufacturing growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2][3][4] - China's manufacturing value-added accounted for approximately 30% of the global total, maintaining the largest share for 15 consecutive years, with projections indicating it could rise to 45% by 2030 [6][9] - The manufacturing sector's output is primarily driven by domestic demand, with less than 30% of production being exported, indicating a strong internal market [14][15] Group 2 - The automotive and semiconductor industries are identified as key areas for growth, with China's automotive production expected to reach 31.28 million units in 2024, accounting for 33.8% of global output [10][11] - Despite the strong performance in manufacturing, challenges remain in specific sectors such as semiconductors, where China faces significant trade deficits, highlighting the need for improvement in these critical areas [12][18] - The articles emphasize the importance of China's manufacturing capabilities in supporting various sectors, including agriculture and services, and the potential for further development in the third industry [58][59] Group 3 - The articles discuss the implications of China's manufacturing strength on global trade dynamics, noting that China's trade surplus has reached unprecedented levels, significantly impacting the global economy [17][30] - The manufacturing sector's ability to adapt and respond to global demands is underscored, with the potential for continued expansion in international markets, particularly in developing regions [22][25] - The articles also highlight the increasing internationalization of the renminbi, driven by China's manufacturing exports, which is reshaping global payment systems [31][33] Group 4 - The articles point out the internal challenges within China's manufacturing sector, including issues related to overcapacity and the need for regulatory oversight to ensure fair competition [54][56] - The manufacturing industry's employment impact is significant, with approximately 1.3 billion people employed in this sector, underscoring its role in the broader economy [56] - The articles conclude that while China's manufacturing sector has achieved remarkable growth, it must navigate both domestic and international challenges to sustain its competitive edge [58][59]