文 | 鲁伟 2025年上半年，医药行业的发展态势可以概括为，业绩分化持续——一些龙头企业延续向好态势，但也 有不少企业的业绩下滑相对严重。 就医药行业整体而言，2025年上半年的成绩并不算亮眼。根据国家统计局数据，2025年1月-6月规模以 上医药制造业实现营业收入1.23万亿元，同比下降1.2%；实现利润总额1766.9亿元，同比下降2.8%。 但大趋势也很明显，整个产业正处于"仿制"到"创新"的蜕变期，多家上市公司已披露的财报成为行业转 型的最佳注脚。特别是，不少医药企业坚持科技创新驱动高质量发展，"加大创新药研发""提升在创新 药中的竞争力"，成为多家上市公司在2025年半年报中频频提及的重要战略。 有业内人士表示，创新药的一个典型特点是研发周期长，一些企业其实已在创新药领域布局多年，有些 创新成果已经或即将面世，如天士力、康缘药业、以岭药业等，均拥有涵盖多个领域的创新药管线。 具体来看，这些医药公司业绩分化明显。2025年上半年，有10家企业净利润同比增长超过100%，同比 增长最高的是特一药业，其净利润增幅高达1313%；沃华药业(002107.SZ)、嘉应制药(002198.SZ)净利润 分别同 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in net profit and net profit excluding non-recurring items for the first half of 2025, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year, while the prescription drug business showed strong growth [1][2]. Financial Performance - For 1H25, the company achieved revenue of 148.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, but net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 24.3% to 18.2 billion yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items fell by 26.5% to 17.0 billion yuan [1]. - In 2Q25, revenue increased by 16.8% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders and net profit excluding non-recurring items saw significant declines of 47.3% and 51.1%, respectively [1]. - Excluding the consolidation of Kunming Pharmaceutical Group and Tasly Pharmaceutical, the company's organic revenue and net profit for 1H25 decreased by 32.0% and 33.9% year-on-year, with 2Q25 showing declines of 22.1% and 61.5% [1]. Business Segments - The Consumer Health Care (CHC) segment faced pressure due to a decrease in demand, with 1H25 revenue of 79.9 billion yuan, down 17.9% year-on-year, attributed to lower cold incidence rates. However, growth is expected to resume in the second half of the year as the cold medicine delivery season approaches [2]. - The prescription drug business emerged as a growth driver, with 1H25 revenue reaching 48.4 billion yuan, a 100% year-on-year increase, driven by strong performance in existing businesses and the consolidation of Tasly [2]. Innovation and R&D - The company continues to focus on innovative drug development, with R&D expenses of 4.6 billion yuan, up 40.6%. During the reporting period, it obtained 8 drug registration certificates and has 205 projects under research, covering various fields including cardiovascular, metabolic diseases, and oncology [3]. - A notable collaboration with Ai Er Pu on the HiCM-188 project aims to advance clinical trials for a groundbreaking heart failure treatment, which has received clinical approval in both China and the U.S. [3]. Mergers and Acquisitions - The acquisition of a 28% stake in Tasly, completed in March 2025, has strengthened the prescription drug business, with both companies benefiting from complementary strengths in innovation, manufacturing, and marketing [4]. - Kunming Pharmaceutical Group is undergoing a transformation focused on its "777" brand and "Kun Chinese Medicine 1381" strategy, with expectations of revenue recovery as channel reforms progress [4]. Investment Outlook - The company is positioned for long-term growth through its CHC business stabilization, prescription drug innovation, and strategic mergers and acquisitions. Short-term performance is impacted by high base effects and channel integration challenges, leading to adjusted profit expectations for 2025-2027 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for China Resources Sanjiu (000999) with a target price of 36.4 CNY [2][7]. Core Views - The company experienced revenue growth of 5.0% year-on-year in 1H25, but net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 24.3% and net profit excluding non-recurring items fell by 26.5% due to a high base effect from the previous year [2][7]. - The report highlights that the CHC (Consumer Health Care) business faced pressure due to a decline in demand, while the prescription drug business showed robust growth, driven by the integration of Tian Shi Li and the performance of existing products [7]. - The company is focusing on innovation in drug development, with significant investments in R&D and multiple projects in various therapeutic areas [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 27,617 million CNY in 2024 to 36,889 million CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.3% [2][8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 3,368 million CNY in 2024 to 4,477 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 15.2% [2][8]. - The report anticipates earnings per share (EPS) to rise from 2.02 CNY in 2024 to 2.68 CNY in 2027 [2][8]. Business Segments - The CHC business reported a revenue of 79.9 billion CNY in 1H25, down 17.9% year-on-year, primarily due to lower cold incidence rates [7]. - The prescription drug segment achieved a revenue of 48.4 billion CNY in 1H25, marking a 100% year-on-year increase, benefiting from the integration of Tian Shi Li and strong performance in existing products [7]. - The company is actively pursuing innovation in drug development, with 205 projects under research and development, and has received 8 drug registration certificates during the reporting period [7].

Group 1: Company Performance Overview - The company expects a double-digit revenue growth in 2025, with net profit matching revenue growth levels [3] - In Q1, the incidence of flu and respiratory diseases decreased compared to last year, leading to a slight adjustment in performance due to high base effects [2] - The CHC (Consumer Health Care) business is anticipated to have market opportunities in categories such as cold, skin, gastrointestinal, and orthopedics throughout the year [2] Group 2: CHC Business Development - The CHC business has entered a multi-category development phase, expanding beyond the core three categories to include pediatrics, orthopedics, liver and gallbladder, and gynecology [4] - The company aims to enhance its product line and market share in pediatric cold medications despite facing some pressure [4] - New products like the vitamin D drops are being introduced to support pediatric category growth [4] Group 3: Prescription Drug Strategy - The prescription drug business is developing steadily, with a focus on adapting to policy changes such as centralized procurement [6] - The company aims to increase the proportion of innovative drugs in its prescription drug portfolio [7] - The integration with Tianjin Pharmaceutical is expected to enhance the company's brand influence in the medical sector [7] Group 4: Online Business Growth - The company has seen rapid growth in its online business, targeting a 10% share by 2025 [8] Group 5: Mergers and Acquisitions - The company plans to pursue both internal and external growth strategies, focusing on mergers and acquisitions in strategic emerging industries [9] Group 6: Shareholder Engagement and Dividends - The company has a stable cash dividend ratio of 50% and aims to enhance shareholder satisfaction through its incentive plans [10] Group 7: Future Integration with Tianjin Pharmaceutical - The focus will be on innovation-driven business development in key therapeutic areas, enhancing R&D capabilities, and fostering collaboration between Tianjin Pharmaceutical and the company [12] Group 8: Formula Granules Business Outlook - The formula granules business is expected to achieve recovery growth in 2024 and maintain growth in 2025, despite being affected by policy changes [13]

Group 1: Advanced Equipment Development - Guangdong Province allocated 38.86 million yuan for the first set of major technological equipment, focusing on intelligent robots and new energy vehicles [1] - The advanced equipment sector shows strong industrial clustering, with significant product development and enhanced manufacturing capabilities [1] - Guangdong has cultivated 4 competitive national-level small and medium-sized enterprise clusters and 2 trillion-yuan international competitive industrial clusters in the machinery sector [1] Group 2: Innovations in Aviation - EHang received the first operational qualification certificate for manned civil unmanned aerial vehicles in China, marking a significant step towards commercializing low-altitude manned services [2] - The AG600 amphibious firefighting aircraft developed by AVIC has also received its type certificate, indicating successful market entry [2] - Guangdong plans to accelerate the development of advanced equipment, implementing policies to support new projects and enhance industry collaboration [2] Group 3: Biopharmaceutical Innovations - In Q1, Guangdong approved 3 first-class innovative drugs and 2 third-class innovative medical devices, nearing half of the total approvals for the previous year [3] - The province aims to establish a mechanism for regularly publishing approved innovative drug and device lists and will support the application of these innovations [3] - Guangdong will focus on reforming medical institution preparations as a breakthrough in biopharmaceutical R&D, promoting collaboration between medical institutions and biopharmaceutical companies [3] Group 4: Strategic Planning - The "Three-Year Attack Plan for Key Areas of Advanced Equipment in Guangdong Province (2025-2027)" is being developed, focusing on artificial intelligence, biomanufacturing, marine engineering, and aerospace [4]