Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The credit bond market is currently experiencing a cautious sentiment, with limited compression in credit bond yield spreads, indicating that market participants are still pricing in credit risks [1][2] - The team holds a bearish outlook on future interest rate trends, although recent economic and financial data, including Q3 GDP figures, have had a limited impact on the bond market's trajectory [1][3] Key Insights and Arguments - Financial institutions are facing increasing pressure on credit supply, as evidenced by the rising loan-to-deposit ratio, which has increased from approximately 43.3 trillion yuan in January to nearly 60 trillion yuan in September [3] - Insurance companies showed weak performance in credit bond purchases earlier this year, particularly in the first half, but there was a recovery in net buying during Q3. Overall, insurance companies did not reduce their total bond purchases, although they bought fewer government and policy bank bonds while increasing local government bond purchases [4] - The current spread between perpetual bonds and other bonds has narrowed to around 5 basis points. If overall interest rates continue to decline, perpetual bonds may still present trading opportunities [5] Investment Recommendations - For ultra-long credit bonds, it is recommended to participate with a focus on allocation, as their coupon yields remain attractive. It is expected that yields will decline in the future, presenting a favorable risk-reward scenario [5] - In Q4, short-term credit bonds with maturities of around two years are expected to perform normally, with yields likely to decrease slightly as overall interest rates decline. However, the decline in yields for longer maturities, such as 10 or 30 years, is expected to be limited [6] - The investment strategy for Q4 should prioritize coupon income, while also allowing for participation in ultra-long duration strategies, but with controlled trading volumes to ensure stability and avoid excessive volatility [6] Additional Important Points - The overall bond purchasing behavior of insurance companies has been influenced by the strong performance of the stock market, which has alleviated some of the asset scarcity issues faced by these institutions [4] - The credit bond market has entered a period of fluctuation, with recent yield movements reflecting a recovery from previous increases, although the overall compression in yield spreads remains modest [2]

"就目前来看，本轮降准降息落地后，理财产品资产端利率在短期内未出现明显下降，反而有所回 升。实际上，今年市场上资产供给有所增加，理财公司'资产荒'的现象并未显著加剧，只能说是高收益 资产遭遇了激烈拼抢。"某股份行理财公司投研业务负责人告诉记者。 从短期来看，央行降准降息政策对理财产品资产端收益率的影响相对有限，近期长债利率震荡回 升，同业存单利率有所上行。但从长期来看，理财产品底层资产收益率下行趋势明确，理财公司的"资 产荒"局面难以改变。 在资产配置方面，不少理财公司投研人士表示，将优先布局同业存单、短期信用债等短债资产，以 锁定当前高利率。此外，在低利率环境下，为增厚收益，理财公司将优化投资组合，通过增加多元资产 配置，分散投资于不同的资产类别，降低对单一资产的依赖，以平衡风险和收益。 资产端收益率影响有限 从短期来看，央行降准降息政策对理财产品资产端收益率影响有限，上周存款降息、LPR下调等操 作落地，长债利率震荡回升。 "从2023年以来存款利率下降后的债券走势来看，1年期和10年期国债收益率的表现不一，存款降息 并不一定会带来债券收益率快速下行，更多需要考虑当时的基本面、政策环境和交易情绪。债券收益 ...