Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of annual portfolio rebalancing as a means to review and adjust investment strategies, ensuring alignment with long-term goals and risk tolerance [4][27]. Group 1: Portfolio Rebalancing - Annual rebalancing should be viewed as a health check for investment strategies, allowing investors to correct deviations caused by emotions and market fluctuations [4][12]. - The first step in rebalancing is to assess the stock-bond allocation to ensure it aligns with the investor's risk tolerance, suggesting a starting point of 50% stocks and 50% bonds for non-professional investors [10][11]. - Investors should regularly recalibrate their asset allocation to avoid unintentional shifts in risk levels due to market movements [11][12]. Group 2: Valuation Review - The second step involves confirming the current valuation of held indices, which helps investors distinguish between normal market fluctuations and potential overvaluation risks [14][15]. - Understanding valuation can reduce emotional decision-making, allowing for more disciplined investment actions based on market conditions [15][16]. - Investors are encouraged to mark previous purchase points to identify emotional buying patterns and improve future decision-making [14][15]. Group 3: Structural Review - After assessing valuations, the next step is to review the portfolio structure to ensure a balanced approach between core, defensive, and growth assets [18][20]. - A well-structured portfolio should include core indices for stability, defensive indices to mitigate volatility, and growth assets for potential higher returns [20][21]. - Adjustments should be made to maintain a balanced exposure across these categories, avoiding over-concentration in any single area [20][21]. Group 4: Adjustment Process - The adjustment process should be gradual rather than drastic, focusing on minor tweaks to realign the portfolio with the established strategy [23][24]. - Investors should prioritize selling positions that do not align with their risk preferences or were acquired based on market hype rather than informed decisions [24][25]. - When adding to positions, it is advisable to fill gaps in core holdings or defensive assets, ensuring a well-rounded portfolio [25]. Conclusion - The annual rebalancing process is not about achieving a perfect portfolio but about maintaining composure and strategy in the face of market uncertainties [27][29]. - The goal is to ensure that investors can navigate future market cycles with confidence and adherence to their investment strategies [28][29].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of avoiding "chasing gains" in asset allocation and emphasizes the need for a scientific and objective analysis framework to make independent investment decisions [9][38]. Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategy - The author, 唐军, manages a diversified asset allocation strategy that includes various asset classes such as A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, US stocks, US bonds, and ETFs focused on high dividends and electricity [5][6]. - 唐军's approach, termed "Configuration First," is based on a three-step framework: assessing credit expansion and liquidity trends, evaluating whether market expectations are excessive, and ensuring asset diversification and complementarity [7][6]. Group 2: Chasing Gains Phenomenon - The article highlights that even sophisticated models like the Markowitz portfolio optimization theory can lead to "chasing gains" due to reliance on historical data for expected returns and volatility [11][20]. - The tendency to chase gains is exacerbated by behavioral biases, such as the "availability heuristic," where investors rely on easily accessible information rather than comprehensive data [25][10]. Group 3: Avoiding Chasing Gains - To avoid chasing gains, the article suggests establishing an objective analysis framework that incorporates quantitative indicators and macroeconomic drivers [26][30]. - It emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between long-term logic and short-term variables, as well as the need to diversify asset allocation to mitigate pressure during market fluctuations [31][34]. Group 4: Market Expectations and Investment Decisions - The article warns that consistent market expectations can often serve as a contrary indicator, suggesting that investors should be cautious during periods of high consensus [35][36]. - It also discusses the importance of recognizing the difference between style beta and alpha when selecting funds, as this understanding can prevent chasing based solely on past performance [37].