↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 以下文章来源于六亿居士 ，作者六亿居士 六亿居士 . 雪球2024年度十大影响力用户。每周发布指数估值表，坚持指数基金(ETF)低估定投，分享指数基金基础分析，让我们：买入有依，持有有底，卖出有 据。 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 六亿居士 来源：雪球 时间走得很快 ， 转眼又到了12月份 。 熟悉指数的朋友都知道 ， 每年12月的第二个星期五的下一交易日 ， 是大部分指数的年度调仓日 。 指数 会基于过去一年的运转 ， 基于编制策略 ， 优化偏离 、 新陈代谢 、 吐故纳新 ， 迎接下一个周期的成长和挑战 。 既然指数如此 ， 我们自己的持仓 ， 其实也应该有类似的思路 。 年底是一场对自己投资行为的年度审核 ， 看看过去这一年 ， 我们有没有认真 践行既定策略 ， 有没有在不知不觉中偏离轨道 ， 又该如何在接下来的日子里把这些偏差纠正回来 。 对很多投资者来说 ， 调仓听起来像是一件需要判断行情的事 ， 但61更愿意把它视为一次年度体检 。 它不是择时 ， 也不是择股 ， 而是把过去 一年因为情绪 、 波 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of avoiding "chasing gains" in asset allocation and emphasizes the need for a scientific and objective analysis framework to make independent investment decisions [9][38]. Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategy - The author, 唐军, manages a diversified asset allocation strategy that includes various asset classes such as A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, US stocks, US bonds, and ETFs focused on high dividends and electricity [5][6]. - 唐军's approach, termed "Configuration First," is based on a three-step framework: assessing credit expansion and liquidity trends, evaluating whether market expectations are excessive, and ensuring asset diversification and complementarity [7][6]. Group 2: Chasing Gains Phenomenon - The article highlights that even sophisticated models like the Markowitz portfolio optimization theory can lead to "chasing gains" due to reliance on historical data for expected returns and volatility [11][20]. - The tendency to chase gains is exacerbated by behavioral biases, such as the "availability heuristic," where investors rely on easily accessible information rather than comprehensive data [25][10]. Group 3: Avoiding Chasing Gains - To avoid chasing gains, the article suggests establishing an objective analysis framework that incorporates quantitative indicators and macroeconomic drivers [26][30]. - It emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between long-term logic and short-term variables, as well as the need to diversify asset allocation to mitigate pressure during market fluctuations [31][34]. Group 4: Market Expectations and Investment Decisions - The article warns that consistent market expectations can often serve as a contrary indicator, suggesting that investors should be cautious during periods of high consensus [35][36]. - It also discusses the importance of recognizing the difference between style beta and alpha when selecting funds, as this understanding can prevent chasing based solely on past performance [37].