Core Viewpoint - Several small and medium-sized banks are adjusting their deposit product structures, particularly by canceling long-term fixed deposit products, reflecting the pressure of narrowing net interest margins in the banking industry [2][8]. Group 1: Changes in Deposit Products - Inner Mongolia's Tuyouqi Mengyin Village Bank and Kundu Lun Mengyin Village Bank have canceled their 5-year fixed deposits, and some private banks no longer list 3-year or 5-year fixed deposit products [2][4]. - The previous interest rate for the 5-year fixed deposit at Tuyouqi Mengyin Village Bank was 1.90%, which is now shown as vacant after the adjustment [4]. - Some private banks, such as Huari Bank and Xin'an Bank, have also removed 5-year fixed deposits from their product lists, with some banks eliminating both 3-year and 5-year fixed deposits [5]. Group 2: Reasons Behind Adjustments - The adjustments are primarily driven by the pressure of narrowing net interest margins, particularly affecting small and medium-sized banks, which are compelled to reduce high-cost long-term deposits and optimize their liability structures [2][8]. - The overall banking industry is facing challenges with net interest margins, with various types of banks experiencing different degrees of decline [9][10]. Group 3: Investor Behavior and Market Trends - Investors are shifting their asset allocation towards "stable low volatility + high liquidity" products, favoring money market funds, short-term wealth management, and low volatility dividend products [2][12]. - The trend indicates that more small and medium-sized banks are likely to follow suit in adjusting long-term deposit products, as the previous high-interest long-term deposit model is no longer sustainable [10].

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment choices of two individuals, Lao Zhou and Xiao Yang, highlighting their differing risk tolerances and investment strategies for managing idle cash [3][4]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Lao Zhou prefers short-term bank wealth management products due to his need for stability and low risk, having previously experienced a small loss in a short bond fund [3]. - Xiao Yang, being younger and more tolerant of market fluctuations, opts for short bond funds, which provide higher potential returns despite occasional minor losses [3][4]. - The article emphasizes that the choice between short-term wealth management and short bond funds depends on the investor's specific needs and risk appetite [4]. Group 2: Market Behavior - Lao Zhou's experience illustrates the importance of having a clear purpose for funds, as he seeks consistent, albeit small, returns without the stress of market volatility [3]. - Xiao Yang's approach demonstrates that accepting some level of fluctuation can lead to better overall returns, as she earned more from her short bond fund compared to a bank product [3][4]. - The article suggests that investors should align their investment choices with their financial goals and comfort with risk, rather than seeking one option as universally superior [4].

Summary of Financial Data and Credit Activity Analysis Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the financial sector in China, particularly the credit activity and monetary policy environment as of September 2025. Key Points and Arguments Financial Data Trends - In September, new RMB loans decreased year-on-year, while social financing (社融) maintained good growth, primarily driven by government actions. The loan growth rate was recorded at 6.6% [1][2][3]. - M2 growth was 8.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from August, while M1 growth was 7.2%, up 1.2 percentage points from the end of August [2]. - New RMB loans amounted to less than 1.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of 300 billion yuan year-on-year, while social financing under the same currency increased by 1.6 trillion yuan [2]. Credit Activity Characteristics - Current credit activity shows a significant structural change, heavily reliant on government actions. Loan interest rates continue to decline, indicating a stable pricing system [1][9]. - There is a notable contradiction between credit supply and demand, leading to price suppression to stabilize volume [9]. - The effectiveness of fiscal subsidies on consumer credit activity remains uncertain, with potential discrepancies in actual support levels [10]. Future Credit Activity Projections - Credit activity in Q4 is expected to be influenced by several factors: 1. Gradual release of 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools, which may stimulate credit activity [6]. 2. Fiscal subsidies impacting consumer and operational credit, with an increase in short-term and long-term loans observed in September [6]. 3. Increased credit from policy banks, which may enhance overall credit supply [6]. - Social financing growth is projected to decline to around 8% by year-end, while credit growth may stabilize at approximately 6% [7]. Monetary Policy Framework - The transformation of the monetary policy framework requires consideration of the interest rate transmission mechanism, with a focus on enhancing the LPR's (Loan Prime Rate) role as a policy interest rate [4][15]. - There is little likelihood of lowering the deposit benchmark interest rate in the short term, as management strategies can help reduce funding costs [16]. - The central bank is maintaining liquidity through various tools, ensuring a stable funding environment despite seasonal pressures [14]. Market and Investment Outlook - The banking sector has faced challenges, with A-shares down 5.5% and H-shares remaining flat. However, the valuation of H-shares has significantly decreased, with some falling below 0.5 times PB [20]. - High dividend yields and low valuations are evident, with A-shares yielding over 4% and H-shares over 5% [20]. - The market is expected to enter a seasonal investment phase from year-end to Q1 of the following year, despite current market conditions not favoring the banking sector [20]. Government Bond Issuance - The issuance of government bonds in Q4 will be crucial for supporting "two new" projects, with potential impacts on economic momentum and social financing growth [11]. M1 and M2 Dynamics - M1 growth is influenced by changes in resident and corporate demand deposits, while M2 growth is affected by high base effects from the previous year [13]. Additional Important Insights - The reliance on government actions for credit activity highlights the need for careful monitoring of fiscal policies and their effectiveness in stimulating economic growth [8]. - The current credit environment reflects insufficient market demand, emphasizing the importance of government-led initiatives in shaping the overall credit landscape [8].

Core Insights - The article discusses the current sentiment towards three-year fixed deposits, highlighting concerns from potential customers about liquidity and interest rate fluctuations [2][3][5] Group 1: Customer Sentiment - There is a noticeable decline in inquiries about three-year fixed deposits, with customers fearing potential losses [2] - Customers express concerns about needing access to funds before the three-year term ends and the possibility of interest rates increasing during that period [2][3] - A specific case illustrates a customer regretting their decision to lock in funds for three years due to an unexpected financial need [3] Group 2: Bank Perspective - Bank employees feel pressure to promote three-year fixed deposits, as many customers are hesitant due to liquidity concerns [2][3] - Banks offer alternative financial products, such as short-term investments and money market funds, which provide more flexibility despite potentially lower interest rates [3][5] - There is a general reassurance that deposits in reputable banks are secure, with deposits up to 500,000 being insured [4] Group 3: Financial Advice - The article emphasizes the importance of assessing individual financial situations before committing to a three-year fixed deposit [5] - A diversified approach to savings is suggested, where individuals can allocate funds across different deposit terms and investment vehicles to balance interest earnings and liquidity [5] - The article concludes that there is no one-size-fits-all answer regarding three-year fixed deposits, and individuals should consider their specific needs and circumstances [5]