来源：华夏时报 作为"十五五"开局之年首场重要的金融工作规划，2026年中国人民银行工作会议于1月5日至6日在北京 召开，为全年金融工作划定清晰路线。 会议明确2026年继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周 期调节力度，提升金融服务实体经济高质量发展质效，深化金融改革和更高水平对外开放，增强宏观政 策前瞻性针对性协同性，着力扩大内需、优化供给，防范化解风险、稳定社会预期，为经济稳定增长、 高质量发展和金融市场稳定运行营造良好的货币金融环境。 在多位受访人士看来，此次会议传递的政策信号既延续了中央经济工作会议的基调，又在工具运用、传 导机制等细节上进一步细化，凸显出"稳增长、调结构、防风险"之间的统筹平衡，预示着2026年货币政 策将更注重精准性与有效性。 货币政策司迎第七任司长 在总量政策层面，会议明确"继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策"，要求"把促进经济高质量发展、物价合 理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"，对政策工具运用则提出"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工 具。" "中央经济工作会议明确2026年要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，中国人民银行将全面贯彻落实会议精 神，加 ...

当日，央行主管金融时报官微发布2026年央行工作会议的解读文章——《央行明确今年七大重点工作， 解读来了→》，文中谢光启以中国人民银行货币政策司司长的身份接受了记者采访。 谢光启表示，中央经济工作会议明确2026年要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，人民银行将全面贯彻落实 会议精神，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，促进经济稳定增长和物价合理回升。 "一个典型的学术派" 公开信息显示，谢光启出生于1977年，2004年博士毕业于北京大学经济学院，同年7月加入中国人民银 行，历任中国人民银行货币政策司分析处主任科员、副处长、处长，副司长等职。 21世纪经济报道记者 唐婧 北京报道 2026年1月6日，中国人民银行新一任货币政策司司长正式公开亮相，系货币政策委员会原秘书长谢光 启。 谢光启加入央行不久后工作能力便得到认可。2007年10月，央行主管金融时报刊发了一篇《第三届"中 国人民银行青年五四奖章"获得者写实》，文中提到，中国人民银行于2007年9月举行了青年五四奖章颁 奖典礼，为陈姝峰等13名同志颁发了"中国人民银行青年五四奖章"，谢光启是其中之一。 上述文章还称，谢光启自跨出北大校门的那天起，就开始在人民银行总行货币 ...

在重庆友强高分子材料股份有限公司（以下简称"友强高分子"）的生产车间里，聚碳酸酯原料正沿着传 送带匀速下行，机器运转的轰鸣声交织成一片。"这笔钱到账第二天，我们就结清了原料货款，现在生 产线全力运转，订单量涨了10%，今年产值冲1.3亿元稳了。"该公司负责人指着堆积如山的原料库介 绍。而就在几个月前，这家专注于新能源汽车改性材料的高新技术企业，被抵押物耗尽、融资无门的难 题困住了手脚。 随着新能源汽车市场的爆发式增长，友强高分子把大部分资金投入新材料研发，急需资金扩产却遭 遇"成长烦恼"——厂房、设备早已抵押，在传统贷款模式下屡屡碰壁。"能押的都押了，就像跑步时被 绑住了腿。"该公司负责人的回忆道出了不少科技型企业的共性困境。转机来自中国人民银行重庆市分 行的"百亿元级"货币政策支持计划，重庆三峡银行江津支行通过"长江渝融通"大数据系统捕捉到企业需 求，依托全国中小微企业资金流信用信息共享平台调取营收、订单、纳税等数据，用大数据模型给企 业"信用画像"，在再贷款政策的激励下，最终以2.8%的优惠利率为该公司发放了250万元信用贷款，不 仅利率比一年期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）低20个基点，审批时间也从20天压 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has released the "Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Third Quarter of 2025," indicating multiple adjustments in policy expression, regulatory focus, and framework transformation, reflecting a precise grasp of the current economic and financial situation and clarifying future policy directions [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Transmission Efficiency - The core expression of monetary policy shifted from "strengthening counter-cyclical adjustment" in the second quarter to "maintaining ample liquidity" in the third quarter, with market liquidity remaining reasonably abundant despite no reserve requirement ratio (RRR) or interest rate cuts [2] - The interbank money market rate DR001 has remained stable around the policy rate, while DR007 has operated at a level 10 basis points above the policy rate, indicating effective regulatory outcomes [2] - The report shows enhanced confidence and determination in monetary policy, emphasizing a stable and relatively loose environment while reducing the urgency of short-term counter-cyclical adjustments [2] Group 2: Transformation of Monetary Policy Framework - The report emphasizes maintaining exchange rate flexibility, strengthening expectation guidance, and preventing excessive exchange rate fluctuations, with an accelerated pace for the internationalization of the Renminbi and capital account convertibility [3] - Key highlights of the monetary policy framework transformation include optimizing intermediate variables, transitioning to a price-based regulatory framework, and enhancing the linkage between asset and liability interest rates for banks [3] Group 3: Structural Measures - The report introduces three new structural measures aimed at addressing developmental shortcomings: optimizing carbon reduction support tools, improving financial support mechanisms for post-poverty alleviation, and researching personal credit repair support policies to unlock consumer potential [4] - These measures reflect a targeted approach in structural monetary policy tools to address key areas and weaknesses in the economy [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Report's Core View The Q3 2025 China Monetary Policy Report continues the main tone of "appropriately accommodative monetary policy" and emphasizes structural monetary policy and promoting a reasonable price recovery. Compared with the Q2 report, it focuses more on reducing banks' liability costs and promotes the transformation of the monetary policy framework. The central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards liquidity, and the bond market is expected to remain strong with fluctuations [1][4][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Implement an appropriately accommodative monetary policy and maintain relatively loose social financing conditions - The overall tone of the monetary policy remains "appropriately accommodative," with the Q3 2025 report further emphasizing maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions. The central bank will maintain ample liquidity through various monetary policy operations and promote a decline in overall financing costs, which may imply that bond yields may remain at low levels in the short term [1][5]. 2. Implement various structural monetary policy tools and emphasize financial support for technology, consumption, etc. - The Q3 2025 report mentioned leveraging the dual functions of total volume and structure of monetary policy tools, implementing various structural monetary policy tools, and increasing support for key areas such as technological innovation, boosting consumption, micro and small enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [1][6]. 3. Prioritize promoting a reasonable price recovery as an important consideration for monetary policy implementation - The Q3 2025 report still emphasized promoting a reasonable recovery in prices. Although inflation data has stabilized, the absolute level remains low, and monetary policy needs to focus on promoting price recovery and expanding domestic demand [1][6]. 4. Reduce banks' liability costs to widen the space for counter - cyclical monetary policy adjustments - The Q3 2025 report frequently mentioned reducing banks' liability costs. The central bank will improve the interest rate control framework, strengthen policy interest rate guidance, and take measures to reduce banks' liability costs and drive down social financing costs. Some small and medium - sized banks have started to reduce deposit rates, and after net interest margins stabilize, the space for monetary policy will expand [2][7]. 5. Continue to promote the transformation of the monetary policy framework - The monetary policy framework places more emphasis on the role of price - type regulation. Through deepening interest rate marketization reforms, it aims to smooth the interest rate transmission relationship from short to long and the comparison relationship between different asset yields [3][7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the continuation of the monetary policy tone from the second quarter report and the Central Political Bureau meeting, highlighting the combination of "counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments" in the third quarter report, reflecting the requirements of the 14th Five-Year Plan and signaling a subtle shift in policy focus in the short term [1] - The report indicates that the monetary policy will continue to implement a moderately loose stance and maintain reasonable growth in financial totals, with a shift from merely focusing on short-term counter-cyclical support to also considering forward-looking layouts for cross-cyclical adjustments [1][2] - The article suggests that with manageable pressure to complete the annual economic targets, the urgency for short-term monetary easing has decreased, focusing instead on the implementation of previous policies and maintaining cross-cyclical policy reserves [2] Group 2 - The report notes that if economic growth pressures increase in the future, there remains room for monetary policy adjustments such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions next year, especially considering the low inflation and historically high real interest rates [2] - It highlights that there is still potential for adjustments in residential loan interest rates, while the space for further reductions in corporate financing costs is limited [2]

Macro - The monetary policy maintains a tone of "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy" and "keeping financial total growth reasonable" [3] - The third quarter report emphasizes the combination of "counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments," indicating a subtle shift in policy focus [3] - The central bank addresses concerns about "tightening monetary policy," "weak financing," and "ineffective interest rates," suggesting a broader focus beyond short-term counter-cyclical support [3] - The pressure to achieve annual economic targets is manageable, reducing the urgency for short-term monetary easing, with a focus on implementing previous policies and preparing for cross-cyclical adjustments [3] - There remains room for interest rate cuts next year if economic growth pressures increase, especially considering low inflation and historically high real interest rates [3] Strategy - The technology manufacturing sector continues to show high prosperity, while real estate and durable goods demand remain weak [5] - Global AI infrastructure investment is driving the prosperity of the electronic semiconductor and power facility sectors, with storage demand rebounding and battery sales significantly increasing [5] - Real estate construction demand is entering a low season, with a widening decline in housing sales and a marginal decrease in demand for construction resources [5] - Upstream resource prices are mixed, with international metal prices declining while coal prices surge due to heating demand [5] Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales have seen a significant decline of 41.4% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities experiencing drops of 45.2%, 38.2%, and 43.9% respectively [9] - Durable goods consumption, particularly passenger car retail, has decreased by 0.8% year-on-year in October, influenced by changes in subsidy policies [9] - Agricultural prices show a mixed trend, with live pig prices down 3.1% month-on-month, while domestic staple grain prices continue to rise [9] - Service consumption indicators, such as tourism and movie box office revenues, indicate a slight decline in activity [9] Technology & Manufacturing - The electronic industry continues to thrive, with explosive growth in storage demand driven by AI, and semiconductor sales increasing by 15% year-on-year in September [10] - Construction demand remains weak, with seasonal factors leading to a decline in building material demand [10] - The lithium battery industry is experiencing heightened prosperity, with significant price increases for lithium hexafluorophosphate [10] - Coal prices have reached new highs due to tightened supply and increased heating demand, while international metal prices have declined [10] Energy Storage - The introduction of a capacity pricing mechanism is expected to enhance the economic viability of energy storage across more provinces [15] - Inner Mongolia's compensation for energy storage discharge in 2026 is set at 0.28 yuan/kWh, which, despite being lower than the previous year's rate, will stimulate demand [16] - The bidding volume for energy storage in October 2025 shows significant year-on-year growth, indicating a robust market demand [16]

Summary of Financial Data and Credit Activity Analysis Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the financial sector in China, particularly the credit activity and monetary policy environment as of September 2025. Key Points and Arguments Financial Data Trends - In September, new RMB loans decreased year-on-year, while social financing (社融) maintained good growth, primarily driven by government actions. The loan growth rate was recorded at 6.6% [1][2][3]. - M2 growth was 8.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from August, while M1 growth was 7.2%, up 1.2 percentage points from the end of August [2]. - New RMB loans amounted to less than 1.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of 300 billion yuan year-on-year, while social financing under the same currency increased by 1.6 trillion yuan [2]. Credit Activity Characteristics - Current credit activity shows a significant structural change, heavily reliant on government actions. Loan interest rates continue to decline, indicating a stable pricing system [1][9]. - There is a notable contradiction between credit supply and demand, leading to price suppression to stabilize volume [9]. - The effectiveness of fiscal subsidies on consumer credit activity remains uncertain, with potential discrepancies in actual support levels [10]. Future Credit Activity Projections - Credit activity in Q4 is expected to be influenced by several factors: 1. Gradual release of 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools, which may stimulate credit activity [6]. 2. Fiscal subsidies impacting consumer and operational credit, with an increase in short-term and long-term loans observed in September [6]. 3. Increased credit from policy banks, which may enhance overall credit supply [6]. - Social financing growth is projected to decline to around 8% by year-end, while credit growth may stabilize at approximately 6% [7]. Monetary Policy Framework - The transformation of the monetary policy framework requires consideration of the interest rate transmission mechanism, with a focus on enhancing the LPR's (Loan Prime Rate) role as a policy interest rate [4][15]. - There is little likelihood of lowering the deposit benchmark interest rate in the short term, as management strategies can help reduce funding costs [16]. - The central bank is maintaining liquidity through various tools, ensuring a stable funding environment despite seasonal pressures [14]. Market and Investment Outlook - The banking sector has faced challenges, with A-shares down 5.5% and H-shares remaining flat. However, the valuation of H-shares has significantly decreased, with some falling below 0.5 times PB [20]. - High dividend yields and low valuations are evident, with A-shares yielding over 4% and H-shares over 5% [20]. - The market is expected to enter a seasonal investment phase from year-end to Q1 of the following year, despite current market conditions not favoring the banking sector [20]. Government Bond Issuance - The issuance of government bonds in Q4 will be crucial for supporting "two new" projects, with potential impacts on economic momentum and social financing growth [11]. M1 and M2 Dynamics - M1 growth is influenced by changes in resident and corporate demand deposits, while M2 growth is affected by high base effects from the previous year [13]. Additional Important Insights - The reliance on government actions for credit activity highlights the need for careful monitoring of fiscal policies and their effectiveness in stimulating economic growth [8]. - The current credit environment reflects insufficient market demand, emphasizing the importance of government-led initiatives in shaping the overall credit landscape [8].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has established a modern monetary policy framework that effectively supports the economic and social development goals outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on maintaining a supportive monetary policy stance [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Tools and Implementation - The PBOC has implemented a total of 9 reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, reducing the RRR by 3.5 percentage points and releasing approximately 7 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [2][3]. - A variety of monetary policy tools have been employed to maintain ample liquidity, including open market operations and reverse repos, while also enhancing the structure of monetary policy tools to support key sectors such as technology innovation and green development [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Metrics and Outcomes - During the 14th Five-Year period, the growth rate of social financing and broad money supply (M2) has been maintained at around 9% to 10%, significantly higher than the nominal economic growth rate of 6% to 7% [3]. - The cost of financing has decreased, with new corporate loans and personal mortgage rates around 3.1% as of August 2025, down by approximately 1.5 and 2.3 percentage points from the end of 2020, respectively [3][5]. Group 3: Interest Rate Marketization - The PBOC has made significant progress in establishing a market-oriented interest rate adjustment mechanism, including the clarification of the 7-day reverse repo rate as the policy rate and the removal of the lower limit on personal housing loan rates [4][5]. - The implementation of a deposit rate marketization mechanism has led to a more flexible interest rate environment, with the LPR for 1-year and 5-year loans decreasing by 0.85 and 1.15 percentage points, respectively, since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan [5]. Group 4: Exchange Rate Stability - The PBOC has maintained a stable RMB exchange rate through a managed floating exchange rate system, with the RMB's annualized volatility averaging around 4% [6][7]. - Efforts to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market have included promoting risk-neutral concepts among enterprises and financial institutions, resulting in an increase in the foreign exchange hedging ratio from 17% in 2020 to approximately 30% in September 2025 [6][7]. Group 5: Communication and Expectation Management - The PBOC has strengthened its communication mechanisms to manage market expectations effectively, including regular policy announcements and financial data releases to enhance transparency and understanding of monetary policy [8]. - The central bank has also engaged in international forums to promote understanding of China's macroeconomic and financial conditions, thereby boosting confidence among international investors [8].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has established a modern monetary policy framework that effectively supports the economic and social development goals outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on maintaining stable total liquidity, optimizing structure, reducing costs, and stabilizing expectations [1][2]. Monetary Policy Tools and Achievements - Since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the PBOC has implemented 9 reserve requirement ratio cuts, reducing the ratio by 3.5 percentage points, which has released approximately 7 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [2][3]. - The PBOC has utilized various monetary policy tools to maintain ample liquidity, including open market operations and reverse repos, while promoting reasonable growth in credit [2][3]. Structural Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC has improved its structural monetary policy tool system, focusing on key areas such as technological innovation, green development, and consumer services, achieving comprehensive coverage of financial services [3]. - The annual growth rates of social financing scale and broad money supply (M2) have reached around 9% to 10%, significantly higher than the nominal economic growth rate of 6% to 7% [3]. Interest Rate Marketization - The PBOC has deepened interest rate marketization reforms, establishing a clearer relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates, and has adjusted the policy interest rate to influence market rates [4][5]. - Since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the PBOC has cumulatively lowered the policy interest rate by 0.8 percentage points, leading to a decrease in the loan market quotation rates (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year loans [5]. Exchange Rate Stability - The PBOC has maintained a stable RMB exchange rate through managed floating exchange rate systems, enhancing the currency's elasticity and ensuring it remains within a reasonable equilibrium [6][7]. - The foreign exchange market has shown resilience, with the RMB exchange rate maintaining stability against major currencies, supported by a robust macroeconomic foundation [6][7]. Expectations Management - The PBOC has emphasized the importance of expectation management and effective communication of monetary policy, enhancing transparency and understanding of policy measures [8][9]. - Various channels have been utilized to communicate with the market, including regular policy announcements, financial data releases, and public education on monetary policy [9][10].