中证报中证网讯（记者 齐金钊）央行日前发布了《2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告》（以下简 称"报告"）。平安证券首席经济学家钟正生认为，相较于二季度报告，此次报告在政策表述、调控重 点、框架转型等方面呈现多重调整，既体现了对当前经济金融形势的精准把握，也明确了后续政策发力 方向。 此外，值得关注的是，三季度报告还新增了结构性举措，旨在精准补强发展短板。钟正生介绍，本次报 告明确三大新增政策举措：其一，优化碳减排支持工具，丰富绿色金融产品，制定高碳行业金融机构碳 核算规则，推进金融机构参与碳市场建设；其二，完善脱贫攻坚过渡期后常态化金融支持机制，重点支 持县域经济发展；其三，研究实施个人信用修复支持政策，挖掘消费潜力释放空间。这些举措体现了结 构性货币政策工具向重点领域、薄弱环节的精准滴灌。 聚焦货币政策框架转型深化，钟正生认为，三季度报告的核心看点具体包括三方面：一是优化货币政策 中间变量，逐步淡化数量目标关注，构建科学稳健的政策体系；二是推进调控框架向价格型转型，重点 理顺由短及长的利率传导关系及不同资产收益率比价关系；三是增强银行资产端与负债端利率调整联动 性，支持银行稳定净息差，为逆周期调节拓宽空 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Report's Core View The Q3 2025 China Monetary Policy Report continues the main tone of "appropriately accommodative monetary policy" and emphasizes structural monetary policy and promoting a reasonable price recovery. Compared with the Q2 report, it focuses more on reducing banks' liability costs and promotes the transformation of the monetary policy framework. The central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards liquidity, and the bond market is expected to remain strong with fluctuations [1][4][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Implement an appropriately accommodative monetary policy and maintain relatively loose social financing conditions - The overall tone of the monetary policy remains "appropriately accommodative," with the Q3 2025 report further emphasizing maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions. The central bank will maintain ample liquidity through various monetary policy operations and promote a decline in overall financing costs, which may imply that bond yields may remain at low levels in the short term [1][5]. 2. Implement various structural monetary policy tools and emphasize financial support for technology, consumption, etc. - The Q3 2025 report mentioned leveraging the dual functions of total volume and structure of monetary policy tools, implementing various structural monetary policy tools, and increasing support for key areas such as technological innovation, boosting consumption, micro and small enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [1][6]. 3. Prioritize promoting a reasonable price recovery as an important consideration for monetary policy implementation - The Q3 2025 report still emphasized promoting a reasonable recovery in prices. Although inflation data has stabilized, the absolute level remains low, and monetary policy needs to focus on promoting price recovery and expanding domestic demand [1][6]. 4. Reduce banks' liability costs to widen the space for counter - cyclical monetary policy adjustments - The Q3 2025 report frequently mentioned reducing banks' liability costs. The central bank will improve the interest rate control framework, strengthen policy interest rate guidance, and take measures to reduce banks' liability costs and drive down social financing costs. Some small and medium - sized banks have started to reduce deposit rates, and after net interest margins stabilize, the space for monetary policy will expand [2][7]. 5. Continue to promote the transformation of the monetary policy framework - The monetary policy framework places more emphasis on the role of price - type regulation. Through deepening interest rate marketization reforms, it aims to smooth the interest rate transmission relationship from short to long and the comparison relationship between different asset yields [3][7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the continuation of the monetary policy tone from the second quarter report and the Central Political Bureau meeting, highlighting the combination of "counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments" in the third quarter report, reflecting the requirements of the 14th Five-Year Plan and signaling a subtle shift in policy focus in the short term [1] - The report indicates that the monetary policy will continue to implement a moderately loose stance and maintain reasonable growth in financial totals, with a shift from merely focusing on short-term counter-cyclical support to also considering forward-looking layouts for cross-cyclical adjustments [1][2] - The article suggests that with manageable pressure to complete the annual economic targets, the urgency for short-term monetary easing has decreased, focusing instead on the implementation of previous policies and maintaining cross-cyclical policy reserves [2] Group 2 - The report notes that if economic growth pressures increase in the future, there remains room for monetary policy adjustments such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions next year, especially considering the low inflation and historically high real interest rates [2] - It highlights that there is still potential for adjustments in residential loan interest rates, while the space for further reductions in corporate financing costs is limited [2]

Macro - The monetary policy maintains a tone of "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy" and "keeping financial total growth reasonable" [3] - The third quarter report emphasizes the combination of "counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments," indicating a subtle shift in policy focus [3] - The central bank addresses concerns about "tightening monetary policy," "weak financing," and "ineffective interest rates," suggesting a broader focus beyond short-term counter-cyclical support [3] - The pressure to achieve annual economic targets is manageable, reducing the urgency for short-term monetary easing, with a focus on implementing previous policies and preparing for cross-cyclical adjustments [3] - There remains room for interest rate cuts next year if economic growth pressures increase, especially considering low inflation and historically high real interest rates [3] Strategy - The technology manufacturing sector continues to show high prosperity, while real estate and durable goods demand remain weak [5] - Global AI infrastructure investment is driving the prosperity of the electronic semiconductor and power facility sectors, with storage demand rebounding and battery sales significantly increasing [5] - Real estate construction demand is entering a low season, with a widening decline in housing sales and a marginal decrease in demand for construction resources [5] - Upstream resource prices are mixed, with international metal prices declining while coal prices surge due to heating demand [5] Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales have seen a significant decline of 41.4% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities experiencing drops of 45.2%, 38.2%, and 43.9% respectively [9] - Durable goods consumption, particularly passenger car retail, has decreased by 0.8% year-on-year in October, influenced by changes in subsidy policies [9] - Agricultural prices show a mixed trend, with live pig prices down 3.1% month-on-month, while domestic staple grain prices continue to rise [9] - Service consumption indicators, such as tourism and movie box office revenues, indicate a slight decline in activity [9] Technology & Manufacturing - The electronic industry continues to thrive, with explosive growth in storage demand driven by AI, and semiconductor sales increasing by 15% year-on-year in September [10] - Construction demand remains weak, with seasonal factors leading to a decline in building material demand [10] - The lithium battery industry is experiencing heightened prosperity, with significant price increases for lithium hexafluorophosphate [10] - Coal prices have reached new highs due to tightened supply and increased heating demand, while international metal prices have declined [10] Energy Storage - The introduction of a capacity pricing mechanism is expected to enhance the economic viability of energy storage across more provinces [15] - Inner Mongolia's compensation for energy storage discharge in 2026 is set at 0.28 yuan/kWh, which, despite being lower than the previous year's rate, will stimulate demand [16] - The bidding volume for energy storage in October 2025 shows significant year-on-year growth, indicating a robust market demand [16]

Summary of Financial Data and Credit Activity Analysis Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the financial sector in China, particularly the credit activity and monetary policy environment as of September 2025. Key Points and Arguments Financial Data Trends - In September, new RMB loans decreased year-on-year, while social financing (社融) maintained good growth, primarily driven by government actions. The loan growth rate was recorded at 6.6% [1][2][3]. - M2 growth was 8.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from August, while M1 growth was 7.2%, up 1.2 percentage points from the end of August [2]. - New RMB loans amounted to less than 1.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of 300 billion yuan year-on-year, while social financing under the same currency increased by 1.6 trillion yuan [2]. Credit Activity Characteristics - Current credit activity shows a significant structural change, heavily reliant on government actions. Loan interest rates continue to decline, indicating a stable pricing system [1][9]. - There is a notable contradiction between credit supply and demand, leading to price suppression to stabilize volume [9]. - The effectiveness of fiscal subsidies on consumer credit activity remains uncertain, with potential discrepancies in actual support levels [10]. Future Credit Activity Projections - Credit activity in Q4 is expected to be influenced by several factors: 1. Gradual release of 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools, which may stimulate credit activity [6]. 2. Fiscal subsidies impacting consumer and operational credit, with an increase in short-term and long-term loans observed in September [6]. 3. Increased credit from policy banks, which may enhance overall credit supply [6]. - Social financing growth is projected to decline to around 8% by year-end, while credit growth may stabilize at approximately 6% [7]. Monetary Policy Framework - The transformation of the monetary policy framework requires consideration of the interest rate transmission mechanism, with a focus on enhancing the LPR's (Loan Prime Rate) role as a policy interest rate [4][15]. - There is little likelihood of lowering the deposit benchmark interest rate in the short term, as management strategies can help reduce funding costs [16]. - The central bank is maintaining liquidity through various tools, ensuring a stable funding environment despite seasonal pressures [14]. Market and Investment Outlook - The banking sector has faced challenges, with A-shares down 5.5% and H-shares remaining flat. However, the valuation of H-shares has significantly decreased, with some falling below 0.5 times PB [20]. - High dividend yields and low valuations are evident, with A-shares yielding over 4% and H-shares over 5% [20]. - The market is expected to enter a seasonal investment phase from year-end to Q1 of the following year, despite current market conditions not favoring the banking sector [20]. Government Bond Issuance - The issuance of government bonds in Q4 will be crucial for supporting "two new" projects, with potential impacts on economic momentum and social financing growth [11]. M1 and M2 Dynamics - M1 growth is influenced by changes in resident and corporate demand deposits, while M2 growth is affected by high base effects from the previous year [13]. Additional Important Insights - The reliance on government actions for credit activity highlights the need for careful monitoring of fiscal policies and their effectiveness in stimulating economic growth [8]. - The current credit environment reflects insufficient market demand, emphasizing the importance of government-led initiatives in shaping the overall credit landscape [8].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has established a modern monetary policy framework that effectively supports the economic and social development goals outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on maintaining a supportive monetary policy stance [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Tools and Implementation - The PBOC has implemented a total of 9 reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, reducing the RRR by 3.5 percentage points and releasing approximately 7 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [2][3]. - A variety of monetary policy tools have been employed to maintain ample liquidity, including open market operations and reverse repos, while also enhancing the structure of monetary policy tools to support key sectors such as technology innovation and green development [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Metrics and Outcomes - During the 14th Five-Year period, the growth rate of social financing and broad money supply (M2) has been maintained at around 9% to 10%, significantly higher than the nominal economic growth rate of 6% to 7% [3]. - The cost of financing has decreased, with new corporate loans and personal mortgage rates around 3.1% as of August 2025, down by approximately 1.5 and 2.3 percentage points from the end of 2020, respectively [3][5]. Group 3: Interest Rate Marketization - The PBOC has made significant progress in establishing a market-oriented interest rate adjustment mechanism, including the clarification of the 7-day reverse repo rate as the policy rate and the removal of the lower limit on personal housing loan rates [4][5]. - The implementation of a deposit rate marketization mechanism has led to a more flexible interest rate environment, with the LPR for 1-year and 5-year loans decreasing by 0.85 and 1.15 percentage points, respectively, since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan [5]. Group 4: Exchange Rate Stability - The PBOC has maintained a stable RMB exchange rate through a managed floating exchange rate system, with the RMB's annualized volatility averaging around 4% [6][7]. - Efforts to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market have included promoting risk-neutral concepts among enterprises and financial institutions, resulting in an increase in the foreign exchange hedging ratio from 17% in 2020 to approximately 30% in September 2025 [6][7]. Group 5: Communication and Expectation Management - The PBOC has strengthened its communication mechanisms to manage market expectations effectively, including regular policy announcements and financial data releases to enhance transparency and understanding of monetary policy [8]. - The central bank has also engaged in international forums to promote understanding of China's macroeconomic and financial conditions, thereby boosting confidence among international investors [8].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has established a modern monetary policy framework that effectively supports the economic and social development goals outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on maintaining stable total liquidity, optimizing structure, reducing costs, and stabilizing expectations [1][2]. Monetary Policy Tools and Achievements - Since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the PBOC has implemented 9 reserve requirement ratio cuts, reducing the ratio by 3.5 percentage points, which has released approximately 7 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [2][3]. - The PBOC has utilized various monetary policy tools to maintain ample liquidity, including open market operations and reverse repos, while promoting reasonable growth in credit [2][3]. Structural Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC has improved its structural monetary policy tool system, focusing on key areas such as technological innovation, green development, and consumer services, achieving comprehensive coverage of financial services [3]. - The annual growth rates of social financing scale and broad money supply (M2) have reached around 9% to 10%, significantly higher than the nominal economic growth rate of 6% to 7% [3]. Interest Rate Marketization - The PBOC has deepened interest rate marketization reforms, establishing a clearer relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates, and has adjusted the policy interest rate to influence market rates [4][5]. - Since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the PBOC has cumulatively lowered the policy interest rate by 0.8 percentage points, leading to a decrease in the loan market quotation rates (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year loans [5]. Exchange Rate Stability - The PBOC has maintained a stable RMB exchange rate through managed floating exchange rate systems, enhancing the currency's elasticity and ensuring it remains within a reasonable equilibrium [6][7]. - The foreign exchange market has shown resilience, with the RMB exchange rate maintaining stability against major currencies, supported by a robust macroeconomic foundation [6][7]. Expectations Management - The PBOC has emphasized the importance of expectation management and effective communication of monetary policy, enhancing transparency and understanding of policy measures [8][9]. - Various channels have been utilized to communicate with the market, including regular policy announcements, financial data releases, and public education on monetary policy [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has made significant adjustments to the 14-day reverse repurchase operation to enhance liquidity management and better meet the diverse funding needs of different institutions [1][2][3] Group 1: Adjustment of 14-day Reverse Repo - The 14-day reverse repo operation will now adopt a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bidding, allowing institutions to quote based on their funding needs and risk preferences [2][3] - This change clarifies the positioning of the 14-day reverse repo as a liquidity tool and strengthens the policy status of the 7-day reverse repo operation rate [2][3] Group 2: Transition to Price-based Monetary Policy - The adjustment reflects a continued shift towards a price-based monetary policy framework, which began with the 7-day reverse repo operation being adjusted to fixed interest rates and quantity bidding [2][3] - The PBOC aims to enhance the market's pricing capabilities and improve the transmission of interest rates from short to long-term [3] Group 3: Flexibility and Precision in Liquidity Management - The PBOC's liquidity management is becoming more flexible and precise, with the ability to adjust operation times and scales based on liquidity needs [3][4] - The upcoming 14-day reverse repo operations may be conducted ahead of holidays to meet liquidity demands, indicating a proactive approach to liquidity management [3][4] Group 4: Adequate Liquidity Tools - The PBOC has a well-stocked toolbox for liquidity management, including various tools for different time frames, ensuring a balanced distribution of liquidity resources [4] - The central bank is likely to continue to provide liquidity based on economic and market conditions while optimizing structural monetary policy tools to support high-quality economic development [4]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced adjustments to the evaluation method for primary dealers in the open market, aiming to enhance the transmission of monetary policy and adapt to the evolving financial market [1][2]. Group 1: Evaluation Method Adjustments - The adjustment of the primary dealer evaluation is a crucial part of the transformation of the monetary policy framework, with the PBOC first establishing primary dealers in 1996 and implementing a regular evaluation mechanism in 2004 [2]. - The new evaluation indicators have been significantly streamlined, emphasizing the importance of monetary policy transmission and bond market making, which includes assessing the volume, price, and coverage of funds lent by institutions [2][3]. - The evaluation method now categorizes different types of institutions for assessment, promoting diversity among primary dealers and enhancing their roles in supporting the central bank's macroeconomic control and policy transmission [3]. Group 2: Compliance and Transition Period - The new evaluation method underscores the importance of compliance, stating that institutions engaging in improper conduct during the evaluation period will have their dealer qualifications suspended [3]. - A transition period has been established, with the list of primary dealers remaining unchanged for the 2025 fiscal year, allowing institutions time to adapt to the new evaluation criteria [3].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced adjustments to the evaluation methods for primary dealers in the open market, effective from 2025, with no changes to the dealer list for that year [1][2] Group 1: Evaluation Method Adjustments - The adjustment of the evaluation criteria is a significant part of the transformation of the monetary policy framework [1] - The new evaluation indicators emphasize the requirements for monetary policy transmission and significantly reduce the number of indicators [1] - The new criteria for the money market transmission include "stable lending and reasonable pricing range" and "performance during periods of market tension" [1] Group 2: Bond Market Making - The evaluation indicators for bond market making include "number of bonds with market-making transactions and reasonable quotes" and "performance during periods of bond market volatility" [2] - This aligns with previous monetary policy reports that proposed establishing a linkage mechanism between market makers and primary dealers [2] Group 3: Compliance and Governance - The new evaluation criteria stress that primary dealers must not engage in illegal activities, with a focus on compliance and sound operations [2] - Institutions exhibiting improper behavior during the evaluation period will face suspension from dealer qualifications, with severe cases leading to disqualification in the following year [2] Group 4: Diversification of Dealers - The evaluation method will categorize institutions for assessment, making the evaluation process more scientific and fair [2] - This change aims to enhance the diversity of primary dealers, allowing different types of institutions to play a role in supporting the central bank's macroeconomic regulation and policy transmission [2]