Core Viewpoint - The company has established itself as a leading player in the aluminum industry in China, focusing on an integrated aluminum production chain and demonstrating strong financial performance and growth potential [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Company Overview - The company has over 50 years of experience in the aluminum industry, originally founded as Yunnan Aluminum Plant in 1970, and has developed a comprehensive aluminum production chain from bauxite to aluminum processing [1] - It is recognized as a "National Environmentally Friendly Enterprise" and a green factory, with an integrated production capacity of 1.4 million tons of alumina, 3.08 million tons of green aluminum, and other related products [1] - The company has a self-sufficiency rate of approximately 29% for alumina and 72% for carbon products [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - The company's net profit for the first half of 2024 reached 2.768 billion yuan, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase, with improving asset quality and cash flow [1] - By the first half of 2025, the company's interest-bearing debt decreased to 2.7 billion yuan, and the debt-to-asset ratio fell to 21.95%, indicating a strong financial position [1] - The cash balance at the end of the first half of 2025 was 7.46 billion yuan, an increase of 1.3 billion yuan compared to the entire year of 2024 [1] Group 3: Dividend Policy - The company has been increasing its dividend payout ratio, with a projected dividend ratio of 32% for 2024, up 12 percentage points year-on-year, and 40.1% for the first half of 2025 [2] - The total cash dividend for 2024 is expected to reach a historical high, reflecting the company's strong cash flow and reduced debt levels [2] Group 4: Green Energy and Sustainability - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing emphasis on green electricity consumption in the aluminum industry, with a target of at least 25.2% green electricity consumption by 2025, a 20% increase from 2024 [3] - The company utilizes over 80% clean energy in its production, resulting in carbon emissions approximately 20% of those from coal-powered aluminum production [3] - It has achieved a 100% compliance rate in carbon trading and is among the first domestic companies to receive product carbon footprint certification, indicating its leadership in low-carbon production [3] Group 5: Investment Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 6.93 billion yuan, 7.97 billion yuan, and 8.21 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 57.1%, 14.9%, and 3.1% respectively [4] - A target price of 23.0 yuan is set for the company based on a 10x price-to-earnings ratio for 2026, reflecting its strong dividend potential and favorable market conditions [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the green aluminum sector, with steadily improving profitability driven by production growth and rising aluminum prices [1][24]. - The company has a comprehensive supply chain layout and is strategically located near key raw material production areas, enhancing its competitive edge [2][51]. - The company's debt-to-asset ratio has significantly decreased, and it has been increasing its dividend payout ratio over the years, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [3][48]. Summary by Sections 1. Green Aluminum Integration Leader with Steady Profitability Improvement - The company is recognized as a domestic leader in green aluminum, with a business model encompassing bauxite mining, alumina production, green aluminum, and aluminum processing [1][13]. - As of June 2025, the company has established a production capacity of 1.4 million tons of alumina, 3.08 million tons of green aluminum, and 0.8 million tons of anode carbon [1][16]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved an aluminum production volume of 1.6132 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.59%, with revenue reaching 29.078 billion yuan, up 17.98% [1][24]. 2. Gradual Increase in Capacity Utilization, Highlighting Long-term Value of Green Aluminum - The company has a self-sufficiency rate of approximately 19.30% for bauxite and 24.71% for alumina, benefiting from proximity to rich bauxite resources in Guangxi [2][51]. - The capacity utilization rate is expected to reach 96.34% in 2024, the highest since 2021, with a forecast of maintaining high levels in 2025 [2][63]. - The company benefits from low electricity costs due to abundant hydropower resources in Yunnan, with a significant portion of its electricity generated from renewable sources [2][68]. 3. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 57.6 billion yuan, 58.9 billion yuan, and 60.2 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.8%, 2.3%, and 2.2% respectively [4][93]. - The forecasted net profits for the same period are 6.5 billion yuan, 7.41 billion yuan, and 8.29 billion yuan, with growth rates of 47.4%, 14.0%, and 11.9% respectively [4][93]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.87 yuan, 2.14 yuan, and 2.39 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 9.91, 8.69, and 7.77 [4][93].