研究所： 证券分析师： 陈晨 S0350522110007 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 王璇 S0350523080001 wangx15@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 铝产量增长增厚业绩，中期分红提升至 40% ——云铝股份（000807）2025 年中报点评 最近一年走势 事件: 2025 年 08 月 26 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 8 月 25 日，云铝股份发布 2025 年半年度报告：2025 年上半年公司实现 营业收入 290.8 亿元，同比+18%；归母净利润 27.7 亿元，同比+10%， 扣非后归母净利润 27.6 亿元，同比+15%。 分季度看，2025 年第二季度，公司实现营业收入 146.7 亿元，环比+2%， 同比+10%；归母净利润 17.9 亿元，环比+84%，同比+32%；扣非后归 母净利润 17.9 亿元，环比+84%，同比+32%。 投资要点: | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/08/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 云铝股份 ...

公司点评 | 云铝股份 既有业绩增长、更有报表质量，中期分红重视股东回报 证券研究报告 2025 年 08 月 26 日 云铝股份（000807.SZ）2025H1 点评 事件：公司公告 2025 年半年报，实现营收 290.78 亿元，同比增长 17.98%； 归母净利润 27.68 亿元，同比增长 9.88%；扣非后归母净利润为 27.56 亿元， 同比增长 15.40%。 业绩超出市场预期，报表强劲、中期分红重视股东回报。根据公司半年报内 容，1）产销量：2025H1 公司氧化铝产量 66.97 万吨；炭素制品产量 40.64 万吨，同比增长 2.23%；铝产品产量 161.32 万吨，同比增长 15.59%。2） 业绩增长：2025H1 公司实现营收 290.78 亿元，同比增长 17.98%；归母净 利润 27.68 亿元，同比增长 9.88%；扣非后归母净利润为 27.56 亿元，同比 增长 15.40%，超出市场预期。3）报表质量：2025H1 经营性净现金流为 37.23 亿元，同比增长 35.47%；资产负债率进一步下降至 21.95%，不断优化调整 债务结构、提高存款利息收益，降低财务费用 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The coal business has shown signs of a turning point, and the company's value is expected to be reassessed [4] - The company has a significant low-carbon advantage in the electrolytic aluminum sector due to its high proportion of green electricity from hydropower [3] - The recovery in coal prices is anticipated to increase profit elasticity in the coal business in the second half of 2025 [2] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 20.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17% [1] - The company's electrolytic aluminum production reached 871,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 16%, while coal production was 3.708 million tons, also up by 15% [2] - The average selling price of electrolytic aluminum was 16,269 yuan/ton, up 4% year-on-year, while coal prices fell to 773 yuan/ton, down 31% year-on-year [2] Business Segments - The company is a major supplier of premium coal for metallurgical enterprises, with a coal output rate of approximately 75%, leading the industry [3] - The aluminum foil products focus on high-precision applications, with a strong market presence in ultra-thin battery aluminum foil [4] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 5.3 billion yuan, 6.5 billion yuan, and 7.3 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8.1, 6.6, and 5.9 [4][5] - Revenue is projected to grow from 44.13 billion yuan in 2025 to 45.76 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 1.8% [5]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Zhongfu Industrial with a target price of 6.3 CNY [3][12]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from increased electrolytic aluminum capacity and a decline in raw material costs, leading to improved profitability and asset quality [9][10]. - The company is set to initiate its first dividend in years, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns [10][46]. - The transition towards green electricity consumption in the electrolytic aluminum sector presents a significant competitive advantage for the company [10][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 22,761 million CNY in 2024 to 27,764 million CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.7% [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rebound from 704 million CNY in 2024 to 2,688 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a significant recovery [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.18 CNY in 2024 to 0.67 CNY in 2027 [4]. Company Overview - Zhongfu Industrial is a veteran in the electrolytic aluminum industry, with a diversified business model encompassing coal, electricity, and aluminum processing [8][15]. - The company has undergone significant restructuring since 2021, improving its financial health and operational efficiency [8][17]. - As of 2024, the company has a production capacity of 690,000 tons of deep-processed aluminum and 750,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum, positioning it among the top players in China's aluminum sector [15][27]. Growth Drivers - The completion of 100% control over electrolytic aluminum assets is expected to enhance production capacity by 19.3% [10][58]. - The company is actively working on cost optimization through self-supplied electricity and high self-sufficiency in carbon materials [10][61]. - The upcoming regulatory changes regarding green electricity consumption in the electrolytic aluminum industry are anticipated to favor companies like Zhongfu that are investing in green energy solutions [10][11]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute at least 60% of its distributable profits as cash dividends from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders [10][47]. - The expected dividend yield for 2025-2027 is projected to be between 2.5% and 7.7%, depending on the approach to covering past losses [10][50].

Global Aluminum Ore Resource Status - The global aluminum ore resource is abundant, with Guinea holding the largest reserves at approximately 7.4 billion tons, accounting for about 25.52% of the world's total reserves [3] - Australia and Vietnam follow, with reserves of 12.07% and 10.69% respectively, while China's aluminum ore reserves are relatively low at only 2.34% [3] Global Bauxite Production - Global bauxite production is projected to reach 450 million tons in 2024, with Guinea producing 13 million tons, representing 28.89% of the total [5] - Australia and China are also significant producers, with outputs of 10 million tons (22.22%) and 9.3 million tons (20.67%) respectively [5] Global Alumina Production - The global alumina production is expected to be 142 million tons in 2024, with China contributing 84 million tons, which is 60% of the total [8] - Australia and Brazil follow with 18 million tons (13%) and 11 million tons (8%) respectively [8] China's Alumina Production Capacity - As of the end of 2024, China has over 40 alumina production enterprises with a total capacity exceeding 100 million tons, with the top ten companies accounting for about 70% of the total capacity [13] Yunnan's Clean Energy Advantage - Yunnan province has abundant hydropower resources, with hydropower generation accounting for 71.22% of its total electricity generation in 2024, providing significant support for high-energy-consuming industries [26] Yunnan's Role in the Aluminum Industry - Yunnan has become a key region for aluminum production in China, with its electrolytic aluminum capacity reaching 585,000 tons by the end of 2024, significantly increasing from 118,600 tons in 2015 [28] Green Aluminum Industry Potential - The green aluminum industry in Yunnan is expected to benefit from the EU's carbon tax, which will enhance the competitiveness of products with lower carbon footprints [46] Downstream Market Demand - The demand for aluminum is expected to grow, particularly in the renewable energy sector, which is becoming a significant driver for electrolytic aluminum demand [37] Cost Structure of Electrolytic Aluminum - The cost structure of electrolytic aluminum production is primarily influenced by alumina, electricity, and prebaked anodes, with alumina being the largest cost component [38] Future Production Plans - Indonesia has numerous planned alumina projects with a total capacity of 25.5 million tons, indicating significant growth potential in the region [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for H1 2025, with estimates ranging from 680 to 720 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 53.35% to 62.37% [1] - The company has fully acquired a 100% stake in Zhongfu Aluminum, increasing its equity capacity to 750,000 tons, which is an increase of approximately 120,000 tons compared to 2024 [1][2] - The report highlights the company's strong resource and cost advantages in the green aluminum sector, positioning it for substantial growth through overseas expansion and deep integration with upstream and downstream partners [4] Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 1.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 155.8% [5] - The estimated operating revenue for 2025 is 26.332 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 15.7% [5] - The report forecasts a gradual increase in net profit for the years 2025 to 2027, with estimates of 1.8 billion, 2.334 billion, and 2.658 billion yuan respectively [4][5] Price and Cost Analysis - The average aluminum price in Q2 2025 is projected to be 20,200 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1.6% year-on-year [2] - The report notes a significant reduction in the cost of electricity for aluminum production, with the tax-inclusive cost in Henan at 0.21 yuan per kWh, down 26% year-on-year [2] - The profit from aluminum production in Q2 2025 is expected to be 3,378.6 yuan per ton, showing an increase of 11% year-on-year [2] Employee and Dividend Plans - The company has announced an employee stock ownership plan aiming to raise up to 1.25 billion yuan, with a share price set at 2.79 yuan per share [3] - The company plans to distribute at least 60% of its distributable profits as cash dividends annually from 2025 to 2027 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects significant growth in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by increased production and favorable cost conditions in the electrolytic aluminum business [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 680-720 million yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.35%-62.37% [1]. - The expected net profit for Q1 2025 is 230 million yuan, with Q2 2025 projected to be between 450-490 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 13%-23% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 96%-113% [1]. - The profit from electrolytic aluminum in Q2 2025 is estimated at 3378.6 yuan per ton, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase and a 42% quarter-on-quarter increase [3]. Group 2: Production and Capacity - The company completed the acquisition of a 24% stake in Zhongfu Aluminum, increasing its ownership in electrolytic aluminum to 100%, with an effective production capacity of 750,000 tons, up by approximately 120,000 tons from 2024 [1]. - The company’s electrolytic aluminum production is benefiting from both volume and price increases, although the price spread between domestic and international aluminum is compressing profit margins in Q2 2025 [1][3]. Group 3: Cost Structure - The estimated tax-inclusive electricity cost for electrolytic aluminum in Henan for Q2 2025 is 0.21 yuan per kWh, down 26% year-on-year and 12% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The tax-inclusive electricity price in Sichuan for Q2 2025 is 0.51 yuan per kWh, showing a 1% year-on-year decrease and a 17% quarter-on-quarter decrease [2]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - The company has launched an employee stock ownership plan aiming to raise up to 1.25 billion yuan, with a share transfer agreement to grant 260 million shares at 2.79 yuan per share, representing 6.47% of total share capital [4]. - The company has also announced a dividend plan for 2025-2027, committing to distribute at least 60% of the annual distributable profit in cash each year [4]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - As a leading player in the aluminum industry, the company is positioned for significant growth through resource advantages and cost efficiencies, with expectations of net profits of 1.8 billion, 2.3 billion, and 2.7 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company announced its 2025 semi-annual performance forecast, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.7-2.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.19%-11.16% [1] Group 1: Performance Forecast - The company anticipates a net profit of 2.75 billion yuan for H1 2025, with a non-recurring net profit of 2.7 billion yuan, indicating a significant increase in Q2 2025 net profit to 1.776 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 31.07% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 82.34% [1] - Q2 2025 is projected to be the highest single-quarter net profit in the company's history, significantly exceeding market expectations [1] - The main reasons for the performance exceeding expectations include: 1) capitalizing on the rising aluminum prices with full production of electrolytic aluminum; 2) benefiting from the decline in raw material prices, with the average price of alumina in Q2 2025 being 3,076.67 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 16.07% [1] Group 2: Industry Development - The "Aluminum Industry High-Quality Development Implementation Plan (2025-2027)" was released, with the company positioned to benefit as a leader in green electricity aluminum [1] - The plan aims for significant improvements in supply chain resilience and safety by 2027, with a target of increasing domestic bauxite resources by 3%-5% and achieving over 15 million tons of recycled aluminum production [1] - The company, as a long-standing player in electrolytic aluminum, has a green aluminum capacity of 3.05 million tons as of the end of 2024, aligning with industry trends for high-quality development [1] Group 3: Profit Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, with EPS projected at 1.73, 1.84, and 2.01 yuan, and PE ratios at 9, 9, and 8 times respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Group 1: Environmental Initiatives in Xining - Xining has made significant progress in ecological improvement, with forest coverage in the core area of the South-North Mountain Greening Project increasing from 7.2% to 79% since 1989, enhancing carbon sequestration [1] - As a second batch national carbon peak pilot city, Xining is implementing actions targeting major emission sources and promoting green transformations in urban construction, industry, and energy sectors [1] - The city has achieved a 100% resource utilization rate for municipal solid waste, effectively realizing waste reduction, resource recovery, and harmless treatment [3] Group 2: Waste Management and Recycling - Sheneng Huangshui Company specializes in waste incineration power generation, processing approximately 400 trucks of municipal waste daily, converting 1 ton of waste into 500 kWh of electricity [2] - The company employs advanced technologies for waste treatment, ensuring emissions meet standards while generating energy for sale [2] - Xining has closed or ecologically capped all 15 municipal waste landfills, becoming the first city in the Tibetan Plateau to achieve zero landfill for raw waste [3] Group 3: Aluminum Industry Transformation - China's electrolytic aluminum production accounts for half of the global output, with significant carbon emissions associated with traditional production methods [4] - Xining's Ganhua Industrial Park is recognized as a core production base for green electricity aluminum, with companies like Huanghe Xinye focusing on low-carbon transformation and green energy utilization [5][6] - By 2027, Xining aims for a 90% conversion rate of primary electrolytic aluminum products and a 75% share of clean energy in aluminum production [7]

Summary of Zhongfu Industrial Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zhongfu Industrial - **Industry**: Aluminum Production Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Conditions**: Aluminum prices remain stable above 20,000 RMB, with low inventory levels indicating that the market has passed stress tests. This has led to an undervaluation of the aluminum sector, including Zhongfu Industrial, which has potential for value re-evaluation [2][4][24] 2. **Capacity Expansion**: Zhongfu Industrial has increased its electrolytic aluminum capacity to 750,000 tons through equity acquisitions, including 500,000 tons from hydropower in Sichuan and 250,000 tons from thermal power in Henan. This positions the company favorably in terms of cost advantages [2][5][24] 3. **Profit Growth**: The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.7% from 2020 to 2024, despite a slight decline in 2024 due to rising raw material costs [2][6] 4. **Debt Management**: By the end of 2024, the company's debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decrease to 33.1%, which is lower than industry peers, providing a solid foundation for value re-evaluation [2][12] 5. **Employee Incentives**: The introduction of an employee stock ownership plan is expected to enhance management and operational vitality, alongside a significant increase in dividend payout ratios [2][4][8] 6. **Future Profit Projections**: Under cautious assumptions, net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.8 billion, 2.3 billion, and 2.7 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 8.1, 6.3, and 5.5, indicating lower valuations compared to peers [2][7][24] Additional Important Insights 1. **Green Energy Transition**: The company is well-positioned to benefit from changes in Sichuan's electricity trading policies, which are expected to lower electricity costs and enhance its role in the green supply chain for Europe and the U.S. [2][3][5] 2. **Impact of EU Regulations**: The implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is anticipated to favor companies with green electricity, granting them pricing power and market access [3][20][24] 3. **Financial Health**: The company has shown a recovery from previous losses, with a complete coal, electricity, and aluminum industry chain advantage, and a self-supply rate of 44% [6][8] 4. **Sales Margins**: From 2020 to 2024, the company's gross profit margin decreased from 19.14% to 9.7%, while the net profit margin improved from -31.7% to 3.29%, indicating a recovery in profitability despite challenges [9] 5. **Global Carbon Policies**: The global trend towards carbon neutrality is influencing the aluminum industry, with many countries setting ambitious carbon reduction targets, creating a window for green transformation and long-term value reconstruction [19][22] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding Zhongfu Industrial's market position, financial health, strategic initiatives, and the broader industry context.