Investment Environment Analysis - The investment environment for the fourth quarter is shaped by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical risks [3] - The upcoming "super long golden week" holiday in China, lasting 8 days, presents an opportunity for investors to strategically allocate assets [3] Gold Asset Allocation - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00% to 4.25% is a key driver for gold prices [3] - Market expectations indicate a 93% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October, which has led to increased interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - Financial analysts predict gold prices could reach $3,900 and $4,200 per ounce by the end of this year and mid-next year, respectively [3] Gold ETF Performance - Recent data shows that the London gold price has surpassed $3,745, reaching a historical high, with the relative strength index (RSI) at 89.72, the highest in 45 years [4] - Gold ETFs have become a preferred investment choice due to lower premiums and fees compared to physical gold, with an average return of 38.1% year-to-date [4] - Gold stock ETFs have outperformed gold ETFs, with an average return of 74.9% year-to-date, nearly double that of gold ETFs [4] Oil Market Outlook - The oil market is currently characterized by a "weak reality," with OPEC+ agreeing to lift voluntary production cuts, leading to increased supply and a decline in oil prices since 2021 [6][8] - The lagging adjustment of refined oil prices can enhance the profitability of refining companies, potentially boosting their stock prices [8] - Currently, oil ETFs have underperformed, with an average return of only 2.1% year-to-date, indicating a lack of attractive investment opportunities in this sector [8] Investment Strategies During Holiday - Investors are advised to utilize short-term financial tools to maximize idle funds during the holiday, such as combining treasury reverse repos with money market funds [15] - Short-term bond ETFs are highlighted as a viable option, with historical annualized returns around 6%, providing better liquidity compared to reverse repos [15] - Some funds have implemented purchase limits to manage liquidity during the holiday period, indicating a cautious approach to fund inflows [17][19]

Core Viewpoint - As the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival approach, investors are advised to strategically allocate assets in anticipation of market movements during the extended holiday period, particularly focusing on safe-haven assets like gold and oil, while also utilizing short-term financial instruments for continuous trading opportunities [3]. Group 1: Gold Asset Allocation - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00% to 4.25% is a key driver for gold prices [4]. - Market expectations indicate a 93% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October, which has led to increased interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [4][5]. - Gold prices have recently surpassed $3,745, reaching a historical high, with the relative strength index (RSI) hitting 89.72, the highest level in 45 years [6]. - Gold ETFs have shown significant returns, with an average yield of 38.1% for those tracking the gold 9999 index, while gold stock ETFs have yielded an average of 74.9% this year [7][8]. Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market is currently experiencing weakness, with OPEC+ agreeing to lift voluntary production cuts, leading to a decline in oil prices since 2021 due to strong supply growth and weak demand outlook [14]. - Despite falling oil prices, refining companies may see improved profits, potentially boosting their stock prices [16]. - The average return for oil ETFs this year has been disappointing, at only 2.1%, with limited active management options available in the market [17][18]. Group 3: Holiday Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to utilize short-term financial tools during the holiday to maximize idle funds, such as combining treasury reverse repos with money market funds for enhanced returns [27][28]. - Short-term bond ETFs are also recommended, with historical annualized returns around 6%, providing better liquidity compared to reverse repos [29]. - Some funds have implemented purchase limits to manage liquidity during the holiday period, indicating a cautious approach to large inflows and subsequent outflows [31][34].