UNFX1 月 10 日讯（分析师 Simon）美国最新公布的非农就业数据整体未偏离市场对货币政策的既有判 断。在就业增速放缓、失业率同步回落的背景下，市场对美联储年内维持宽松取向的预期保持稳定，推 动黄金延续上行走势，盘中有效突破 4500 美元整数关口，周内累计涨幅接近 4%。 数据显示，12 月美国新增非农就业岗位 5 万个，低于市场预期的 6 万个，也略低于前值修正后的 5.6 万 个，显示招聘节奏继续放缓。不过，失业率由 4.6% 回落至 4.4%，好于市场预期，在一定程度上缓解了 对劳动力市场快速走弱的担忧。薪资方面，平均时薪增速与预期一致，未对通胀前景形成新的扰动，使 得本次就业报告整体呈现"温和降速而非明显失衡"的特征。 尽管部分经济指标仍显示出一定韧性，但本次就业数据并未改变市场对全年政策方向的核心定价。利率 市场仍倾向于认为，美联储在 2026 年内存在累计约 50 个基点的降息空间，宽松预期得以延续。在此背 景下，黄金继续作为对冲政策不确定性的配置工具获得资金青睐。非农公布后，金价一度回撤至 4450 美元附近，随后迅速企稳反弹，并突破 4500 美元关口，盘中高点触及 4517 美元， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant rise in gold prices driven by geopolitical tensions, with spot gold nearing $4550 per ounce, marking a historical high and a weekly increase of 4.49% [1] - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction as 2026 approaches, with an 82.3% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates in January 2026, while expectations for a potential rate cut have increased significantly [2] - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields, which have fallen from 4.2% to around 4.1%, is reducing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated fixed-income assets, potentially driving investors towards gold as a safer asset [2][3] Group 2 - Gold has shown remarkable performance in 2025, with over a 100% increase since breaking long-term lows in 2024, and a year-to-date rise exceeding 65%, outperforming most asset classes [4] - Technical indicators suggest that while gold prices are currently in a strong upward trend, there is a risk of a significant profit-taking sell-off in early 2026 due to overbought conditions [4] - The current price action indicates that gold is likely to continue its upward trajectory, with key resistance at $4550 and support around $4500, suggesting a potential for further price movements within these ranges [4]

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals, including gold and silver, have reached historic highs, driven by global geopolitical changes and investor demand for safe assets [2][3]. Precious Metals - On December 24, spot gold surpassed $4,519 per ounce, while spot silver exceeded $72 per ounce, both setting new historical records [1]. - As of the latest report, London spot gold and COMEX gold futures hit record highs of $4,519.81 and $4,547.5 per ounce, respectively, with both showing over 72% increase year-to-date [2]. - London spot silver rose by 3.43% yesterday and continued to climb, reaching a peak of $72.094 per ounce today, with COMEX silver futures hitting $72.24 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 150% increase year-to-date [2]. - Analysts suggest that factors such as international trade dynamics and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are driving the prices of precious metals, alongside a strong demand for safe-haven assets amid global geopolitical shifts [2]. Base Metals - Copper, regarded as a global economic indicator, reached a new high of $12,159.5 per ton on the LME [3]. - The tight supply situation is expected to support higher copper prices, with emerging demand from AI investments and traditional sectors anchoring price movements [3]. - However, U.S. copper import tariffs may introduce volatility in trading patterns [3]. Investment Opportunities - The non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed the A-share market this year, with the non-ferrous metals index rising by 87.36% year-to-date, leading among 31 industry indices [4][5]. - The mining ETF (159690) tracking the non-ferrous mining index has seen a remarkable increase of 97.29% this year, indicating strong market performance [4][5]. - Analysts from Dongfang Securities and Ping An Securities recommend focusing on gold, copper, and aluminum sectors, anticipating continued price increases driven by strong demand and weakening dollar credit [4][6]. - The overall profitability of the non-ferrous metals industry has improved, with a year-on-year net profit growth of 41.43% in the first three quarters of 2025, and a significant increase of 50.81% in the third quarter alone [5][6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are in a strong upward cycle, with COMEX gold futures surpassing $4,480 per ounce and domestic gold jewelry prices increasing significantly [1][3] - The recent surge in gold prices is part of a broader trend where precious metals like gold, silver, and platinum are all rising, indicating a systemic allocation towards safe-haven assets amid increasing global economic uncertainty [3] - Key factors supporting gold prices include rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a weakening dollar, and significant net purchases of gold by central banks, particularly China, which has increased its holdings for 13 consecutive months [3][4] Group 2 - The increase in gold prices has led consumers to face higher costs for gold jewelry, with a 30-gram gold bracelet costing approximately 1,000 yuan more overnight [3] - For ordinary investors, while the long-term logic of gold as a risk hedge remains valid, the current high price levels necessitate a cautious approach to participation, as short-term volatility may increase the risks of buying at peak prices [3][4] - The current market dynamics are prompting investors to reassess the definition of "asset safety," as fluctuations in real estate and stock markets have brought the fundamental need for value preservation back into focus [4]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) has implemented regulatory measures to control the surging silver futures market, including limits on daily trading volume and adjustments to transaction fees starting December 24, 2025 [1] - The maximum daily opening position for non-futures company members and special overseas participants in the silver futures contract AG2602 is set at 10,000 lots, while hedging and market-making transactions are exempt from this limit [1] - The transaction fee for the AG2602 contract will be adjusted to 0.025% of the transaction amount for day trades, while the AG2604 contract will have a fee of 0.005% [1] Group 2 - The SHFE silver futures have surged by 117% year-to-date, with the main contract closing at 16,210 yuan per kilogram, marking a significant increase from 7,470 yuan per kilogram at the beginning of the year [2] - The price of silver has surpassed 16,000 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a 6.06% increase on the day of reporting [2] Group 3 - The London spot gold price has reached a high of $4,419.88 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 67%, while the spot silver price has also hit a record high of $69.44 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 130% [4] - The A-share precious metals sector has seen significant gains, with companies like Zhongjin Gold and Shandong Gold rising over 4% [4] - The prices of platinum and palladium futures have also surged, with platinum reaching 568.45 yuan per gram and palladium at 508 yuan per gram, both marking new highs since their listings [4] Group 4 - The recent surge in precious metals is attributed to supply-demand imbalances, central bank purchases of gold, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5] - Global central banks are expected to continue their gold purchasing trend, with a projected net increase of 1,045 tons in 2024, while global gold production is only 4,974 tons [5] - The ongoing geopolitical risks and changes in asset allocation strategies are driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5] Group 5 - In the context of increasing global macroeconomic volatility and geopolitical conflicts, copper, aluminum, and gold are identified as core assets for long-term investment due to their supply-demand rigidity and safe-haven attributes [6] - The report highlights that supply tightness, green economic transitions, and monetary system restructuring will drive the price levels of these strategic metals higher [6]

Core Insights - The Chinese futures market has shown significant activity in November, with a trading volume of 770 million contracts and a turnover of 66.61 trillion yuan, marking year-on-year increases of 13.54% and 7.11% respectively [1] - The overall performance of the futures market in the first 11 months of the year has been robust, driven by factors such as the introduction of new products, increased hedging demand from real enterprises, and a rise in commodity asset allocation [1][2] - Precious metals, particularly gold, have emerged as the most favored sector in the futures market this year [1][3] Trading Volume and Turnover - In November, the top three traded products by turnover were gold, silver, and copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, glass, soda ash, and methanol on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and coking coal, palm oil, and soybean meal on the Dalian Commodity Exchange [1] - The total trading volume for the first 11 months reached 8.117 billion contracts, with a cumulative turnover of 67.5 trillion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 14.74% and 20.19% respectively [1] Factors Driving Market Activity - The increase in market activity is attributed to the launch of new futures products, such as aluminum alloy futures and options, pure benzene futures and options, and propylene futures and options, which provide more precise hedging tools for related industries [2] - Structural impacts from various industrial policies have attracted significant capital inflow, leading to independent trend movements in related products and expanding trading volumes [2] Investment Trends - As of December 5, the total capital in commodity futures reached 520 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.6% [3] - Gold futures have seen a capital accumulation of 104 billion yuan, a substantial increase from 51.57 billion yuan at the beginning of the year, making it the only product to surpass the 100 billion yuan mark [3] - The appeal of gold as a defensive asset has increased due to rising global uncertainties, with central banks continuing to accumulate gold, further supporting long-term investment strategies [3]

Core Viewpoint - The current bull market in gold is characterized by its simultaneous rise with risk assets like stocks and its stronger performance compared to U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, indicating a shift in market preferences towards gold as a safer asset amid increasing uncertainties in the global financial landscape [5][6][15]. Group 1: Historical Context of Gold - The historical analysis reveals that gold has three attributes: commodity, currency, and financial, each driven by different macroeconomic factors over time, primarily linked to risk aversion [5][9]. - The first bull market (1970-1980) was driven by gold's commodity attribute, primarily as a hedge against inflation, with gold prices rising approximately 23 times due to high inflation and geopolitical tensions [7][24][36]. - The second bull market (2001-2012) was characterized by gold's financial attribute, where the introduction of gold ETFs transformed gold into a more liquid financial asset, leading to a price increase of about six times, particularly during the financial crisis [8][48][60]. - The current bull market (2018-present) has seen a return to gold's monetary attribute, with central banks significantly increasing their gold purchases, pushing prices up by about two times amid geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. debt sustainability [8][85][88]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Trends - The simultaneous rise of gold and stocks reflects a unique market sentiment where both risk appetite and risk aversion are increasing, suggesting a complex interplay of investor behavior [6][13]. - The shift towards gold over U.S. Treasuries and the dollar indicates a growing distrust in traditional safe-haven assets, driven by concerns over the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policies and the potential for a weakening dollar [5][15][77]. - The ongoing trend of "de-dollarization" and increased central bank gold purchases highlight a significant change in global asset allocation strategies, positioning gold as a preferred asset in times of uncertainty [74][85][88].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has seen a strong performance this year, with gold prices reaching historical highs and silver, often referred to as "poor man's gold," also experiencing significant price increases [1][18]. Group 1: Silver Price Surge - On October 9, the spot silver price surpassed $50 per ounce for the first time, with a year-to-date increase of over 70%, outperforming gold [2]. - The rising silver prices have sparked interest in silver bar investments, leading to reports of delivery delays of up to one month on certain platforms [3][24]. Group 2: Market Demand and Supply - A visit to the Shenzhen Shui Bei market revealed high demand for silver, with some stores requiring appointments due to limited stock [5][12]. - The market is experiencing a shortage of silver bars, with many stores having little to no inventory available for immediate purchase [15][16]. - According to the World Silver Association, global silver demand has consistently exceeded supply from 2021 to 2024, with a projected shortfall of 3,659 tons by 2025 [17]. Group 3: Investment Dynamics - The current market dynamics indicate that while silver bars are in high demand, the availability of immediate stock is limited, leading to a preference for face-to-face transactions to mitigate risks associated with pre-orders [16][24]. - The price of silver bars varies, with 1,000-gram bars priced between 12.82 and 13.82 yuan per gram, reflecting a premium over the real-time silver price due to membership and transaction fees associated with purchasing from trading platforms [8][12]. Group 4: Factors Driving Precious Metal Prices - The surge in precious metal prices is attributed to several factors, including increased demand for safe-haven assets due to global economic and geopolitical uncertainties, changes in the dollar and interest rate environment, and a trend of central banks accumulating gold [29][30]. - The recent price increases in silver have been influenced by a significant rise in physical delivery demand, limited increases in COMEX silver warehouse stocks, and a tightening of rental rates for silver in London [31]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - Experts suggest that silver possesses long-term growth potential, particularly in the context of its role in the green economy, while also cautioning that a decline in global inflation or a strengthening dollar could reduce demand for precious metals [32].

Investment Environment Analysis - The investment environment for the fourth quarter is shaped by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical risks [3] - The upcoming "super long golden week" holiday in China, lasting 8 days, presents an opportunity for investors to strategically allocate assets [3] Gold Asset Allocation - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00% to 4.25% is a key driver for gold prices [3] - Market expectations indicate a 93% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October, which has led to increased interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - Financial analysts predict gold prices could reach $3,900 and $4,200 per ounce by the end of this year and mid-next year, respectively [3] Gold ETF Performance - Recent data shows that the London gold price has surpassed $3,745, reaching a historical high, with the relative strength index (RSI) at 89.72, the highest in 45 years [4] - Gold ETFs have become a preferred investment choice due to lower premiums and fees compared to physical gold, with an average return of 38.1% year-to-date [4] - Gold stock ETFs have outperformed gold ETFs, with an average return of 74.9% year-to-date, nearly double that of gold ETFs [4] Oil Market Outlook - The oil market is currently characterized by a "weak reality," with OPEC+ agreeing to lift voluntary production cuts, leading to increased supply and a decline in oil prices since 2021 [6][8] - The lagging adjustment of refined oil prices can enhance the profitability of refining companies, potentially boosting their stock prices [8] - Currently, oil ETFs have underperformed, with an average return of only 2.1% year-to-date, indicating a lack of attractive investment opportunities in this sector [8] Investment Strategies During Holiday - Investors are advised to utilize short-term financial tools to maximize idle funds during the holiday, such as combining treasury reverse repos with money market funds [15] - Short-term bond ETFs are highlighted as a viable option, with historical annualized returns around 6%, providing better liquidity compared to reverse repos [15] - Some funds have implemented purchase limits to manage liquidity during the holiday period, indicating a cautious approach to fund inflows [17][19]

Core Insights - The inflow into gold ETFs has reached a three-year high, with global holdings reaching 3,779.4 tons in the first half of 2025, marking the highest level since August 2022 [1] Group 1: Reasons for Gold ETF Popularity - The rise in gold ETFs is driven by multiple market factors, including increased geopolitical risks, such as tensions in the Middle East and the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to a higher demand for safe-haven assets [3] - Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 25 basis point cut anticipated in September 2025, have increased the appeal of gold ETFs as the dollar weakens [3] - Central banks globally have continued to purchase gold, with a net purchase of 483 tons in the first half of the year, supporting gold prices and encouraging investor participation through gold ETFs [3] - Historical data shows a strong positive correlation between gold ETF holdings and gold prices, indicating market confidence in gold and providing support for future price movements [3] Group 2: Compliance Support for Gold ETF Investment - The company offers comprehensive support for gold ETF investments, including real-time market updates to ensure investors are aware of price movements related to underlying assets [4] - Professional analysis services are provided, including daily updates on gold ETF holdings and market logic interpretations to assist investors in making informed decisions [4] - Flexible trading options are available, allowing investors to set dynamic stop-loss and take-profit levels, and adjust trading leverage within compliance to balance risk and return [4] Group 3: Rational Investment in Gold ETFs - Despite the high inflow into gold ETFs, investors are advised to avoid impulsive trading behaviors, such as chasing prices, and to consider their risk tolerance before making investment decisions [5] - Asset allocation is crucial, with recommendations for conservative investors to limit gold ETF holdings to 10%-15% of total assets, while more aggressive investors may increase their allocation but should diversify to mitigate risks [5] - The long-term value of gold ETFs is emphasized in the current market environment, with suggestions for investors to engage through compliant platforms and stay updated on holdings data and strategy reports [5]