Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that President Trump is considering deploying an additional aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East if negotiations with Iran fail, emphasizing that any agreement must address both nuclear and ballistic missile issues [2] - Trump anticipates a second round of negotiations with Iran to take place the following week, expressing optimism about reaching a favorable agreement [2] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is traveling to the U.S. to provide Trump with new intelligence regarding Iran's military capabilities, particularly concerning its ballistic missile capabilities [2] Group 2 - Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif accuses Netanyahu of attempting to drag the U.S. into a war with Iran, asserting that Netanyahu does not support diplomatic solutions and has a history of military aggression in the region [4] - Zarif claims that Netanyahu's efforts to involve the U.S. in conflict with Iran have failed in the past and will continue to do so [4]

Core Insights - The Chinese futures market saw significant activity in January, with a trading volume of 912 million contracts and a turnover of 100.26 trillion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 65.09% and 105.14% respectively [1][4] Market Activity - The increase in market activity is attributed to several factors: the rotation effect among market sectors, heightened demand for hedging and asset allocation due to geopolitical risks, increased price volatility in certain commodities, and seasonal effects at the beginning of the year [1][4] - The influx of new capital at the start of the year has led to a significant increase in client equity and sustained liquidity in the market [4] Commodity Performance - As of the end of January, there are 165 listed futures and options products in China, with over 50 products, including silver, copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel, showing year-on-year volume growth exceeding 100% [2][5] - Nickel futures experienced a staggering year-on-year growth of 799.06%, while copper and aluminum futures grew by 403.75% and 395.39% respectively [5] Sector Analysis - The active trading in precious and non-ferrous metals is driven by product attributes and supply-demand dynamics, with strong industrial demand for silver and non-ferrous metals from sectors like photovoltaics, artificial intelligence, and new energy vehicles [5] - The demand for hedging tools among industrial enterprises has been increasing due to heightened price volatility in these commodities [5] Exchange Rankings - In terms of trading volume, the top commodities by exchange include silver, gold, and copper at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, while the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange leads with PTA, cotton, and caustic soda [6] - The China Financial Futures Exchange recorded a trading volume of 30.05 million contracts in January, accounting for 3.29% of the national market, with a turnover of 2.635 trillion yuan [6]

ATFX：本周黄金市场再度成为全球资金关注的核心资产，围绕5000美元整数关口的多空博弈明显升温。周中现货黄金在避险情绪与低位买盘推动下快速上 冲，一度触及5090美元上方，但随即在美元反弹与高位获利回吐压力下大幅回落，最低下探至4850美元附近，单日波动幅度显著放大，最终回到5000关口下 方整理。这种剧烈的冲高回落并非偶然，而是多重因素在高位集中作用的结果：一方面，全球不确定性仍然支撑黄金的长期配置需求，另一方面，短期宏观 数据与美元走势却不断对金价形成扰动，使市场在追涨与避险之间反复摇摆。消息面上，美国最新服务业数据表现出一定韧性，ISM非制造业PMI维持在扩 张区间，同时投入成本回升，引发市场对通胀黏性和联储局政策路径的重新评估，美元指数因此出现阶段性反弹，对黄金构成直接压制；与此同时，地缘政 治局势短期出现边际缓和迹象，部分风险溢价被回吐，也削弱了黄金连续冲高的动能。不过，从更宏观的层面看，央行持续购金、全球地缘格局碎片化以及 对美元体系稳定性的长期担忧，并未发生实质性改变，这也是黄金在大幅回调后依然能够快速获得承接的重要原因。 技术结构方面，结合图表可以看到，当前金价正运行在一条自前高延伸下来的下 ...

今日周五(1月30日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于109.99一线上方，今日开盘于115.79美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报111.96美元/盎司，下跌3.34%，最高触及118.45美元/盎司，最低下探108.01美元/盎司， 目前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 此次回调被视为试图重新获得正向势头，帮助其恢复上涨，同时试图卸载相对强弱指标上的超买状况， 而指标已进入极度超卖区，为看涨动能的回归打开了道路。 白银市场需持续关注期货与现货市场的挤兑压力，以及基差与内外价差变化，12月下旬以来国内白银市 场持续呈现紧缺现象，TD递延费长期处于空付多，现货较期货升水，国内较伦敦溢价走阔以及国投白 银LOF基金剧烈波动等问题。 【最新伦敦银行情解析】 银价在近期盘内交易中下跌，尽管交易持续在EMA50上方表现为动态支撑，这一调整性走势依然存 在。这一支撑强化了主短期多头趋势的稳定性和主导地位，尤其是在价格波动持续伴随支撑该路径的主 要和次要多头趋势线时。 银价于1月29日一度触及121.66美元的历史新高，随后在高位出现明显获利了结。目前尽管短线回调， 但从时间周期来看，白银本月累计涨幅仍超过60 ...

全球市场，正在为黄金而"沸腾"。 1月29日，世界黄金协会发布的报告显示，2025年全球黄金总需求首次突破5000吨大关，创历史新高；全球黄 金需求总值飙升至前所未有的5550亿美元，同比增长45%。 在避险情绪与资产重估浪潮的推动下，黄金正在成为全球资本市场最耀眼的资产之一，金价持续刷新纪录。当 日，黄金现货、期货价格双双站上5500美元/盎司关口，伦敦金本月涨幅高达28%。 金价的凌厉上涨，也迅速传导至终端消费市场。多家黄金珠宝品牌当日公布的足金饰品价格普遍突破1700元/ 克，再创历史新高。 突破5000吨！黄金需求创纪录 1月29日（周四），世界黄金协会发布的2025年全年《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，2025年全球黄金总需求 达5002吨，创历史新高。 从结构看，投资需求成为推动2025年全球黄金需求创纪录的核心力量。 报告显示，2025年全球黄金投资需求攀升至2175吨，首次站上2000吨以上的里程碑水平。其中，全球黄金ETF 全年净增持801吨，创下历史第二高年度增量。持续的地缘政治风险、全球经济不确定性以及主要经济体政策 博弈，使得大量资金涌入黄金ETF，寻求避险与资产多元化配置。 中国央行方 ...

Cooper分析认为，金价的推动力已由传统宏观因素转向结构性驱动，包括市场对货币政策独立性的疑 虑、对全球贸易关税摩擦的担忧，以及散户投资者对避险资产的积极配置。此外，选择权市场的隐含波 动率与风险逆转指标均偏向看涨，显示投资者对未来走势仍具备信心。 格隆汇1月29日｜市场议论金价是否过热之际，渣打银行全球商品研究主管Suki Cooper在最新报告中明 确指出，这波前所未有的涨势具备深厚的结构性支撑。数据显示，机构投资人的持仓增长速度实际上落 后于金价的涨幅，且目前投机性部位占未平仓合约的比例仅约26.4%，远低于历史峰值的47.9%，这反 映出当前市场并不存在过度投机的现象。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The prices of gold and silver have surged to historic highs, with spot gold breaking the $5000 per ounce mark, driven by factors such as weakened dollar credibility, strong central bank demand for gold, and geopolitical premiums [1][11]. Market Performance - As of the report, spot gold rose by 2.05% to $5090.288 per ounce, reaching a peak of $5111.17, while spot silver surged by 6.06% to $109.6 per ounce, surpassing the $110 mark [3][5]. - In the futures market, COMEX gold futures increased by 2.02% to $5080.4 per ounce, with a peak of $5107.9, and COMEX silver futures rose by 7.54% to $108.97 per ounce, hitting a high of $110.065 [6][7]. Influencing Factors - The current gold price rally, which began in early 2025 at around $3000 per ounce, reflects significant changes in the macroeconomic environment [9]. - Short-term factors include ongoing geopolitical risks, such as tensions over Greenland's sovereignty and escalating US-Iran relations, which have heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold [9]. - Mid-term factors involve the interplay between the Federal Reserve's policy path and its independence, with expectations of weakened monetary policy independence supporting gold prices [9][10]. - Long-term drivers include the structural weakening of the dollar credit system, with global central banks increasing gold reserves and a steady de-dollarization process [10]. Future Outlook - The long-term upward trend for gold remains intact, influenced by factors such as weakened dollar credibility, strong central bank demand, and geopolitical premiums [11]. - Analysts predict that gold prices could potentially reach $6000 per ounce by 2026, driven by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of continued monetary easing [11]. - Investment strategies suggested include a diversified approach based on individual financial capacity and risk tolerance, with recommendations for different investment vehicles such as gold futures, ETFs, and physical gold [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum and palladium prices are still affected by the overall sentiment of the precious metals sector and geopolitical risks in the short term. Geopolitical risks remain high, driving up precious metals prices, and platinum and palladium fluctuate with the sector [8][9]. - Fundamentally, the global platinum market has been in short supply for two consecutive years. The supply of platinum is shrinking, industrial demand is rising, and low prices have stabilized jewelry and investment demand, highlighting the supply - demand contradiction. The supply - demand gap of platinum is expected to continue in the next few years, so the long - term fundamentals of platinum are optimistic [9]. - For palladium, automotive demand dominates. Due to the surge in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China, the growth of palladium demand is suppressed, and it is difficult to see improvement in the short term. Therefore, the fundamental support for palladium is limited, and its trend is affected by platinum linkage and the macro - environment [9]. - Overall, the industrial demand for platinum and palladium is concentrated in fuel - vehicle exhaust catalysts, and the fundamental support is insufficient. Their trends are mainly driven by the overall sector sentiment, and recently by safe - haven demand. They are expected to maintain high volatility and wide - range fluctuations. It is recommended to go long on platinum PT2606 and palladium PD2606 with light positions [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views and Strategies 3.1.1 Weekly Views - **Price Trends**: Last Friday, there were fluctuations in the platinum and palladium markets. The sharp rise in the spot price of platinum in the external market drove the prices of domestic platinum and palladium to gap up on Friday. Platinum was relatively strong, with the platinum main contract closing at 685.9 yuan, up 10.39%; the palladium main contract closed at 497.95 yuan, up 3.98%. The spot price of external platinum reached a record high of 2704.3 at the early morning of Saturday. The weekly gains of domestic platinum and palladium were 12.4% and 6.1% respectively [8]. - **Macroeconomic Situation**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US in the week of January 17 was 200,000, lower than the expected 209,000. The number of continued jobless claims dropped to 1.85 million last week, lower than the expected 1.89 million, the lowest level since November, indicating a warming labor market. The final quarter - on - quarter growth rate of the US GDP in the third quarter was 4.4%, the fastest in two years, showing robust growth. In November, the overall PCE price index in the US increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations; the core PCE price index also increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations, indicating a mitigation of inflation risks. The market is focusing on the upcoming announcement of the new Fed Chairman, which may affect market expectations for the future interest - rate path of the Fed [8]. - **News**: The sharp rise in precious metals last week was mainly due to the intensification of geopolitical risks, which led to funds flowing into safe - haven assets. The US President's announcement of tariffs on eight European countries and Europe's strong response of selling US Treasuries, along with the deterioration of the situation in Greenland, initially increased geopolitical risks. Although the US President later cancelled the tariffs and gave up the idea of seizing the island by force, the tense relations between Europe and the US and the uncertain situation in Iran still stimulated the market's demand for safe - haven asset allocation [8]. - **Fundamentals**: In 2026, platinum and palladium are expected to show significant differences. The supply of platinum is continuously restricted, with South Africa accounting for over 70% of global production. Its demand structure is diverse, with automotive exhaust catalysts accounting for only about 40%, and the rest coming from investment, jewelry, and industrial fields. Against the background of rising platinum prices, investment demand has increased significantly. At the same time, emerging fields such as the hydrogen - energy industry and commercial spaceflight have opened up long - term growth prospects, and the supply - demand gap of platinum is expected to widen in 2026. The terminal demand for palladium is highly dependent on automotive exhaust catalysts, accounting for over 80%. Suppressed by the accelerating penetration of new energy vehicles and the substitution trend of platinum, the growth of palladium demand lacks imagination. Although there is still a short - term supply gap, it is expected to narrow significantly in 2026, with relatively limited fundamental support [8]. 3.1.2 Strategies - It is recommended to go long on platinum PT2606 and palladium PD2606 with light positions [9]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Markets - The report provides multiple sets of charts, including the trends of NYMEX platinum and palladium futures, London platinum and palladium spot prices, Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum and palladium futures, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum price [12][16][20][24]. 3.3 US Economy - The report presents charts of US GDP, PMI, new non - farm employment numbers, and the unemployment rate, which can be used to analyze the overall situation of the US economy [30][31]. 3.4 Inflation - The report provides charts of US CPI/PCE and core CPI/PCE to show the inflation situation in the US [36][39]. 3.5 Interest Rates - The report shows charts of US Treasury yields (including short - term and medium - to - long - term) and real interest rates, which can be used to analyze the interest - rate situation in the US [42][45][46]. 3.6 Fundamentals - **Platinum**: The report provides a global platinum supply - demand balance sheet from 2013 to 2026f, showing the supply from various regions (such as South Africa, Zimbabwe, North America, Russia), different types of demand (automotive, jewelry, IT, etc.), and the supply - demand gap and inventory changes in different years [51]. - **Palladium**: The report provides a global palladium supply - demand balance sheet from 2009 to 2025, showing the supply from different regions (South Africa, Russia, North America, etc.), different types of demand (automotive, chemical, dental and biomedical, etc.), and the supply - demand gap in different years [52]. 3.7 Futures Positioning - The report provides charts of the external platinum and palladium futures positionings, including non - commercial net long positions and total positions [53]. 3.8 Passenger Car Sales - The report provides charts of China's passenger - car market retail and wholesale data, including the number of vehicles sold and year - on - year changes [60]. 3.9 US Dollar Index and Exchange Rates - The report provides charts of the US dollar index and various exchange - rate pairs, including the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, the euro, the Japanese yen, the British pound, and the Canadian dollar [66][69][72][74]. 3.10 Platinum - Palladium Price Difference between Domestic and Foreign Markets - The report provides charts of the spot price trends of domestic and foreign platinum and the price difference between them [83]. 3.11 Platinum - Palladium Price Ratio - The report provides a chart of the platinum - palladium price ratio, including the ratios in NYMEX and LPPM [90].

智通财经APP获悉，在全球宏观政策不确定性加剧的背景下，本周国际市场资产走势出现显著分化，反映出投资者在应对美元走弱时的避险逻辑发生转变。 受美国可能参与美日协同干预汇市的预期推动，美元指数持续承压走软，这一趋势直接为大宗商品市场注入了强劲的上行动能。以铜为首的基准金属价格延 续涨势，计价货币美元的系统性贬值正不断推高资源类资产的估值上限。 市场分析认为，当前的工业金属飙升已不仅局限于供需层面的博弈，更多表现为资金在美元信用风险累积背景下，对具有实体价值的"硬通货"进行的战略性 配置。 与实物资产的火热景象形成鲜明对比的是，加密货币市场在新的一周开局不利。尽管比特币常被冠以"数字黄金"之名，但在近期地缘政治局势高度紧张、多 国贸易摩擦升温的极端环境下，其避险属性表现出明显的不稳定性。 由于地缘局势动荡引发了投机性资金对流动性收紧的警惕，比特币价格在波动中走势蹒跚。比特币上周日大幅下跌，本周开局不稳，周一亚洲早盘虽小幅反 弹但仍显脆弱。全球地缘政治紧张局势促使投资者从风险资产转向黄金等避险资产。 具体来说，这个最大加密货币上周日一度下跌3.5%，跌至2026年以来最低点，略高于86000美元，随后回升至8773 ...

记者丨黎雨桐 翁榕涛 编辑丨金珊 1月26日上午，现货白银开盘大涨，截至9：48，突破108美元关口，日内涨超4%。 | W | 伦敦银现 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAGUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | 108.014 ª² | | | 103.341 | 总量 | | 0 | | +4.673 | +4.52% 开盘 | | 104.402 | 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 108.583 持 仓 | | 0 | 外 盘 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 103.191 | 壇 仓 | 0 | 内 盘 | | | | 关时 | 五日 | 日K | 周Ｋ | 月K | 更多 | | | 叠加 | | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | 108.583 | | | | 5.07%. 卖一 108.069 | | | | | | | | 示一 | 108.014 | | | | | | | 9:48 | 107.928 | 0 | | | | | | 9:48 | 107.948 | 0 ...