基金周度报告（R3） 2025 年 09 月 30 日 上证指数-上证基金指数走势图 -7% 3% 13% 23% 2024-09 2024-12 2025-03 2025-06 2025-09 基金指数 上证指数 主要指数表现（涨跌幅%） 基金周报（20250929-20250930） 投资要点 上周行情、数据跟踪 1）上周市场波动较大、指数表现分化。A 股方面，科创 50、 创业板 50 表现亮眼，周内分别上涨 6.47%、2.50%。北证 50 持续 回调，周内下跌 3.11%。H 股方面，恒生指数、恒生科技指数周内 分别下跌 1.57%、1.58%。海外权益市场方面，标普 500、纳斯达 克 100 指数周内分别下跌 0.31%、0.50%，德国 DAX、法国 CAC40、 日经 225 指数周内分别上涨 0.42% 、0.22% ，0.69%，印度 SENSEX30、韩国综合指数周内分别下跌 2.66%、1.72%。 2）中债长端利率周内上行，中短端利率周内下行。中债 30 年 期、10 年期、1 年期国债到期收益率（0926）分别报收 2.2170%、 1.8768%、1.3825%，较前一周末（ ...

Investment Environment Analysis - The investment environment for the fourth quarter is shaped by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical risks [3] - The upcoming "super long golden week" holiday in China, lasting 8 days, presents an opportunity for investors to strategically allocate assets [3] Gold Asset Allocation - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00% to 4.25% is a key driver for gold prices [3] - Market expectations indicate a 93% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October, which has led to increased interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - Financial analysts predict gold prices could reach $3,900 and $4,200 per ounce by the end of this year and mid-next year, respectively [3] Gold ETF Performance - Recent data shows that the London gold price has surpassed $3,745, reaching a historical high, with the relative strength index (RSI) at 89.72, the highest in 45 years [4] - Gold ETFs have become a preferred investment choice due to lower premiums and fees compared to physical gold, with an average return of 38.1% year-to-date [4] - Gold stock ETFs have outperformed gold ETFs, with an average return of 74.9% year-to-date, nearly double that of gold ETFs [4] Oil Market Outlook - The oil market is currently characterized by a "weak reality," with OPEC+ agreeing to lift voluntary production cuts, leading to increased supply and a decline in oil prices since 2021 [6][8] - The lagging adjustment of refined oil prices can enhance the profitability of refining companies, potentially boosting their stock prices [8] - Currently, oil ETFs have underperformed, with an average return of only 2.1% year-to-date, indicating a lack of attractive investment opportunities in this sector [8] Investment Strategies During Holiday - Investors are advised to utilize short-term financial tools to maximize idle funds during the holiday, such as combining treasury reverse repos with money market funds [15] - Short-term bond ETFs are highlighted as a viable option, with historical annualized returns around 6%, providing better liquidity compared to reverse repos [15] - Some funds have implemented purchase limits to manage liquidity during the holiday period, indicating a cautious approach to fund inflows [17][19]

当大多数人规划旅途时，精明的投资者已在布局下一个收益风口。 作者 | RAYYYY 编辑 | 小白 临近10月，美联储降息预期升温、地缘政治风险持续等因素共同构成了四季度初的投资环境。 而再过几天我们将迎来国庆与中秋双节叠加，带来长达8天的"超长黄金周"，此时当大多数人规划旅 途行程时，精明的投资者已在布局假期资产配置方案。 那么在A股休市8天的背景下，如何巧妙布局黄金、原油等避险资产，并利用国债逆回购与短融ETF实 现假期交易不间断，并为节后行情做好准备？本文将为您提供一套完整的假期投资攻略。 国庆投资前景分析 （一）黄金资产配置，避险与降息双轮驱动 北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间，成 为推动金价的核心因素。 此外，据CME"美联储观察"（市场广泛关注的利率预测工具）预测，美联储10月维持利率不变的概 率为7%，降息25个基点的概率为93%。 市场已开始计价这一预期。财通证券更是指出，金价年内和明年中预计达到3900和4200美元/盎司。 在降息消息落地以及降息强预期的大背景下，黄金再次成为备受投资者关注的资产。 伦敦金价近日突破3745美 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - International gold prices have surged, with New York futures surpassing $3700 per ounce and London spot prices reaching $3680 per ounce, driven by short-term Fed rate cut expectations and long-term de-dollarization narratives [1][4] - Central banks and gold ETFs are increasing their gold holdings, providing strong support for gold prices amid geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar [5][4] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, as it is viewed as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, especially in uncertain economic conditions [4][5] Group 2: A-Share Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached around 3900 points after a rapid rise in July and August, entering a consolidation phase with trading volumes above 2 trillion [1][6] - Despite a drop in trading volume from 3.2 trillion to around 2 trillion, historical trends suggest that a volume peak does not necessarily indicate the end of a bullish trend [7] - A-share market is supported by various liquidity sources, including insurance funds and household savings, which provide both downside risk support and potential upside [9] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a defensive strategy during market fluctuations, with opportunities to accumulate positions during dips, as overall valuations in A-shares remain attractive [11][12] - The long-term growth logic for A-shares is intact, supported by low interest rates, inflows from long-term funds, and trends in AI and consumer policies [12][14] - Both gold and A-shares can be included in investment portfolios, as they have low correlation in returns, allowing for a diversified approach that enhances portfolio resilience [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices reached new highs last week, driving the performance of gold stocks and increasing the scale of gold ETFs in 2023 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The uncertainty in the global macro environment has enhanced the allocation value of gold [1] - Funds are rapidly entering the market through ETFs and other tools, leading to continuous expansion of related products and extending the "windfall" to related sectors of the industry [1] Group 2: Strategic Positioning - Under the backdrop of de-dollarization and a surge in central bank gold purchases, the strategic importance of gold is becoming increasingly prominent [1] - Coupled with expectations of interest rate cuts and high debt risks, gold is at the beginning of a new cycle, further enhancing its function as a long-term safe-haven asset [1]

【环球网财经综合报道】近期，公募基金市场迎来新变化，一些此前相对"非主流"的产品扛起规模增长的大旗。债券型ETF、 黄金ETF、固收+基金以及公募REITs四大类产品在2025年全面爆发，合计规模增长超过3700亿元，为基金公司开辟了新的增长 空间，也折射出行业竞争格局的深刻变化。 据Wind数据，截至6月13日，债券型ETF总规模已突破3200亿元，较2024年底激增1460亿元，增幅高达84%。百亿级债券ETF 不断涌现，海富通中证短融ETF等规模已超480亿元。海富通基金表示，这得益于政策支持、市场需求以及产品创新等多重因 素，债券ETF以其透明、稳定的特点满足了投资者配置需求。 固收+产品在波动行情中重回升势，一季度规模增长超千亿元。多家基金公司固收+产品增量超百亿，中欧基金一季度增量达 177亿元。中欧基金打造了多策略"稳"产品线，满足不同风险偏好需求。 公募REITs市场热度不减，总市值突破2000亿元，年内已有7只新基金募集成立。保障性租赁住房REITs等新类型产品扩容步伐 加快，华夏北京保障房REIT扩募顺利，中银中外运仓储物流REIT即将发售，市场认购热情高涨。 展望未来，公募基金行业仍在探 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant growth of niche public fund products, such as bond ETFs, gold ETFs, fixed income + funds, and public REITs, which have become key drivers for the expansion of public fund scales in the industry [2][3][4]. Group 1: Growth of Niche Products - Bond ETFs have seen rapid growth, with total scale surpassing 3200 billion yuan as of June 13, 2025, marking an increase of 1460 billion yuan or 84% since the end of 2024 [4][5]. - Gold ETFs have also experienced substantial growth, reaching a scale of 1566.7 billion yuan, up 122% from 704.4 billion yuan at the end of last year [6]. - Public REITs have crossed a total market value of 2041 billion yuan, increasing by 477 billion yuan since the end of last year [6][7]. - Fixed income + products have gained traction, with total scale growth exceeding 1000 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025 [7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - The public fund industry is transitioning from homogeneous competition to differentiated specialization, as traditional product categories face saturation and increased competition [3][8]. - Large institutions are moving away from reliance on star fund managers, focusing instead on platform-based, integrated, and multi-strategy research systems [9]. - Smaller fund companies are seeking differentiated development paths to stand out in a crowded market [9]. Group 3: Institutional Strategies and Innovations - Fund companies are concentrating resources in specific areas to achieve scale breakthroughs, with notable contributions from bond ETFs and gold ETFs to the growth of various fund companies [10][11]. - The article mentions that the public fund industry needs to optimize product structures and offer more diverse options to meet varying investor needs [14]. - There is a growing interest in innovative products such as multi-asset FOFs and cross-border asset allocation FOFs, which are expected to become focal points for future development [15][16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the current surge in gold prices has attracted a new generation of young investors in China, who are replacing the older generation's interest in gold investment, seeking to capitalize on perceived financial opportunities [2][7]. - Young investors are increasingly viewing gold as a high-return investment, with discussions on social media highlighting significant profits from gold purchases, indicating a shift in investment beliefs among the younger demographic [3][9]. - The article discusses the historical context of gold as a safe-haven asset, tracing its price movements back to events such as the U.S.-China trade tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic, which have contributed to its appeal as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation [6][10]. Group 2 - The article notes that the demographic of gold consumers has shifted, with the proportion of young people aged 25 to 34 engaging in gold purchases rising from 16% to 59%, indicating a significant trend in gold consumption among younger generations [9]. - It highlights the risks associated with gold investment, particularly for young investors who may be using credit and loans to finance their purchases, which could lead to financial strain if gold prices decline [13][14]. - The article emphasizes the complexities and potential pitfalls of investing in gold, including issues with liquidity and the challenges of selling gold products, which may not yield the expected returns due to high markups and purity concerns [11][12].

以下文章来源于力的期权工作室 ，作者余力 Felix 力的期权工作室 . 对个人更通俗，对机构更专业，努力做最具品质的衍生品公众号~ 文 | 余力 Felix 来源 | 力的期权工作室 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 这个星期，相比于A股，我想另一个资产应该引起了更大的关注， 它就是年内涨幅一度快到30%的资产——黄 金。 隔岸的大嘴，原本想"make America great again"，最后搞成了"make Au great again"。尤其是前几天，每天 两三个点的涨幅，确实是简直了…… 然而，这个世界总是被反者道之动的规律所支配。任何一个风险资产的表现不会永远顺滑的，也没有一个风险 资产会只涨不跌的。偶然中蕴含着必然，尽管今天黄金的大跌与trump的态度缓和有很大关系，但其次这一次 大跌，也恰恰是发生一系列指标进入极值以后…… 图：当日沪金指数的分时走势 数据来源：Wind 最近的黄金有多疯狂呢？我们一起来跟踪两组数据。 首先，国际金价的乖离率又一次进入了历史极值区域。 所谓乖离率，指的是一个资产价格相对某根均线的偏离 程度，对于前天收盘的国际金价，它相对于20天均线的乖离率已经达到了2 ...

随着公募基金一季报披露收官，在市场回暖驱动下，公募行业交出一份亮眼答卷。据Wind数据统计， 2024年一季度公募基金整体盈利达2528.54亿元，同比增幅超10倍。其中，主动权益类基金不仅扭亏为 盈，还以近1247亿元的盈利规模创下2020年以来同期最佳水平。 同时，全行业管理规模微降至32.23万亿元，但结构性调整暗流涌动。债券型基金单季"失血"近5000亿 元，权益类产品却逆势吸金超1200亿，而QDII、黄金类等产品也实现规模跃升。 在这之中，绩优产品吸金效应凸显，不少规模暴增数十倍，部分迷你产品甚至实现规模逆袭。产品规模 的此消彼长也影响着基金公司最新的规模排名。总体而言，行业马太效应持续深化，易方达、华夏等8 家头部公司稳居"万亿俱乐部"，排名前列者并没有太大的改变。 单季盈利超2529亿元 今年一季度，伴随市场行情回暖，公募基金盈利显著回升。第一财经据Wind数据统计，今年一季度， 公募基金管理人旗下基金产品利润合计为2528.54亿元，较去年四季度的1142.13亿元环比上涨1.2倍，较 去年同期增幅则在10倍以上。 对比数据来看，权益类产品打了一个翻身仗，混合型和股票型基金合计达到1529亿 ...