Key Insights - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has significantly increased, with market predictions exceeding 90% probability, driven by weak economic data, particularly in the labor market [8][9] - The credit bond market is experiencing a cooling trend, with issuance down to 13,127.58 billion yuan in August, a decrease of 1,349.78 billion yuan from the previous month, and net financing dropping to 543.99 billion yuan [10][49] - The monthly rolling default rate in the bond market is at 0.17%, with one new defaulting entity, Shenzhen Zhongzhuang, indicating ongoing credit risks [21][24] Market Review - The manufacturing PMI in August slightly improved to 49.4, indicating a weak recovery in the economy, while liquidity remains generally ample with the central bank injecting 1,466 billion yuan [10][36] - The average issuance rate for credit bonds has mostly increased, with the 3-year AAA corporate bond rate rising by 16 basis points, reflecting higher borrowing costs across various sectors [49][50] - The secondary market saw most bond yields rise, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 13 basis points to 1.84% [12][30] Credit Risk and Regulatory Environment - The ongoing high-pressure regulatory environment for implicit debt emphasizes the need to prevent "disposal risk" [11][12] - Five entities, including those in the real estate sector, have extended their bonds due to operational performance declines and cash flow issues, highlighting the challenges faced by these industries [24][25] - Credit spreads for short-term notes have generally widened, with most sectors experiencing increased issuance costs [30][51]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Economic operation shows that export rush boosts foreign trade recovery, and import rebound indicates improved domestic demand. The money market remains liquid with low - priced funds. The issuance of credit bonds has increased significantly in both quantity and scale, and the average issuance cost has decreased [4]. - The joint issuance of the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - style Industrialization" by seven departments including the People's Bank of China clarifies the goals and paths for financial support of new - style industrialization, which may increase the participation of traditional manufacturing enterprises in the science - innovation and green bond markets [9]. - A new type of bond, the first non - listed high - growth small and medium - sized enterprise support bond, has been successfully issued, which is an innovative practice to promote inclusive finance [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - **Economic Data**: In July, exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and imports increased by 4.1% year - on - year, both exceeding market expectations. The export boost is due to the "tariff relaxation period" between China and the US, and the expansion of diversified markets. The import growth reflects improved domestic production and investment demand and nominal growth from commodity prices [6]. - **Funding Situation**: From August 4th to 8th, the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net capital withdrawal of 53.65 billion yuan, and a net investment of 30 billion yuan through outright reverse repurchases. The weekly average of DR001 and DR007 decreased by 5.59BP and 8.25BP respectively compared to the previous week [7][8]. 3.2 Bond Market Observation - **Bond Market Policy**: The "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - style Industrialization" was issued, aiming to establish a mature financial system for manufacturing by 2027, and promoting the application of various financial tools. It may increase the participation of traditional manufacturing enterprises in the science - innovation and green bond markets [9]. - **Bond Issuance**: This week, 1,147 bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance scale of 210.4521 billion yuan and a net financing inflow of 98.5378 billion yuan. The number of credit bond issuances increased by 66.38% month - on - month, and the scale increased by 85.28% month - on - month. The average issuance cost decreased by 22.44BP [10]. - **New Bond Types**: On August 5th, Yixing Liuchuang Huizhi Science and Technology Development Co., Ltd. successfully issued the first non - listed high - growth small and medium - sized enterprise support bond on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a scale of 300 million yuan and a term of 5 years [12]. 3.3 Risk Warning - No issuer's subject rating was downgraded this week [4][15]. - No issuer's rating outlook was downgraded this week [4][15].